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> Jan. 16-18 SE Winter Storm, Last Minute Forecasts & OBS
dalejr88
post Jan 7 2010, 09:28 AM
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This time period looks good for a possible storm. Could be Rain or Snow Details will be worked out the closer we get to the event.
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MonroeDawg
post Jan 7 2010, 10:16 AM
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QUOTE(dalejr88 @ Jan 7 2010, 09:28 AM) *
This time period looks good for a possible storm. Could be Rain or Snow Details will be worked out the closer we get to the event.

Yep, its been on GFS for a few runs now...most of us are watching the current situation


--------------------
"The more I prepare, the luckier I get" -- Tom Landry
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BALLPARK
post Jan 7 2010, 10:22 AM
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QUOTE(MonroeDawg @ Jan 7 2010, 11:16 AM) *
Yep, its been on GFS for a few runs now...most of us are watching the current situation

Our we going to have enough cold air for this storm?
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MonroeDawg
post Jan 7 2010, 10:27 AM
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QUOTE(BALLPARK @ Jan 7 2010, 10:22 AM) *
Our we going to have enough cold air for this storm?

Looks like some moderation (country wide) but that's when we've had the best setups (as I remember them) in the SE. Maybe Frank Strait will discuss in upcoming vlogs. Usually, rain followed by snow yields more moisture to work with. Old saying...sometimes its too cold to snow...kinda like our current situation.


--------------------
"The more I prepare, the luckier I get" -- Tom Landry
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dalejr88
post Jan 7 2010, 10:34 AM
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Sometimes we get Big storms when the pattern reloads. Only time will tell.
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SnowNiner
post Jan 7 2010, 12:27 PM
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Time frame looks REALLY warm. I don't think there's a remote chance here. Heavy rain probably. IMO, there's going to be a several week warm up the end of January and we'll be looking at February before we get anymore threats.

Winter to remember!! I'll remember it as all the others really.... wink.gif
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SouthEasternFore...
post Jan 7 2010, 03:57 PM
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myforecast forecasts me for an icy mix on the 21st


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SnowNiner
post Jan 7 2010, 04:11 PM
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QUOTE(SouthEasternForecast @ Jan 7 2010, 03:57 PM) *
myforecast forecasts me for an icy mix on the 21st


Myforecast is terrible in my opinion. They change forecasts several times a day it seems; especially in any type of long range. Accuweather might be better than them, and that ain't sayin too much! laugh.gif
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Snowlover32
post Jan 7 2010, 05:03 PM
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Our next potential snowstorm looks to be after Jan. 20th at least because it looks like things are going to warm up and then we get a big rain and things cool back down and then we get some lows to ride through here giving us the potential for some snow.


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QUOTE(Tarheelflyfishing @ Nov 28 2010, 0711 PM) *
Forecasting a winter storm down to the last detail here in the NC Piedmont is like nailing Jell-O to a tree.
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Snowlover32
post Jan 7 2010, 08:13 PM
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18z GFS made this storm colder just doubt that it will come true after being duped so many times.



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QUOTE(Tarheelflyfishing @ Nov 28 2010, 0711 PM) *
Forecasting a winter storm down to the last detail here in the NC Piedmont is like nailing Jell-O to a tree.
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AmyRenee
post Jan 7 2010, 08:29 PM
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[quote name='Snowlover32' date='Jan 7 2010, 08:13 PM' post='730380']
18z GFS made this storm colder just doubt that it will come true after being duped so many times.


[/quo

I hope it comes true! I would love to see more snow!! Where is Shelby? I live in Rockingham county in north central NC, just north of Greensboro at the NC/Va line. We got 7.5 in. in the Dec. storm. I'm so hoping for a repeat or even bigger storm before the winters over.
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Snowlover32
post Jan 7 2010, 09:01 PM
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QUOTE
I hope it comes true! I would love to see more snow!! Where is Shelby? I live in Rockingham county in north central NC, just north of Greensboro at the NC/Va line. We got 7.5 in. in the Dec. storm. I'm so hoping for a repeat or even bigger storm before the winters over.


Cleveland County its about 25-30 minutes west of Gastonia or a hour west of Charlotte. Yea i would love some snow. I only got 2.5" of sleet in that dec. one. So I really want snow. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Snowlover32: Jan 7 2010, 09:02 PM


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QUOTE(Tarheelflyfishing @ Nov 28 2010, 0711 PM) *
Forecasting a winter storm down to the last detail here in the NC Piedmont is like nailing Jell-O to a tree.
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D.J.
post Jan 7 2010, 09:44 PM
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Remember what the last one did.. rolleyes.gif rolleyes.gif!
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DeepSouthSC
post Jan 7 2010, 10:56 PM
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QUOTE(D.J. @ Jan 7 2010, 09:44 PM) *
Remember what the last one did.. rolleyes.gif rolleyes.gif!



Exactly! I'm not taking the bait no longer. I was (BADLY) bitten by the March 1st, 2009 snowstorm and I was bitten tonight. To be honest, I'm not that disappointed by today's event. I would've liked it for an early winter "teaser" and to possibly from getting out of work on tomorrow. lol

Otherwise, I'm cool. If, I'm able to get 3 or more inches from this particular system and/or some system later on this winter.... Then, I'll be fine.

Back to the regularly scheduled program.... I'll continue to monitor this particular system, but not gonna get my hopes up ever again until I see the flakes actually hitting the pavement.

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dawgnkitten
post Jan 7 2010, 11:13 PM
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QUOTE(DeepSouthSC @ Jan 7 2010, 10:56 PM) *
Exactly! I'm not taking the bait no longer. I was (BADLY) bitten by the March 1st, 2009 snowstorm and I was bitten tonight. To be honest, I'm not that disappointed by today's event. I would've liked it for an early winter "teaser" and to possibly from getting out of work on tomorrow. lol

Otherwise, I'm cool. If, I'm able to get 3 or more inches from this particular system and/or some system later on this winter.... Then, I'll be fine.

Back to the regularly scheduled program.... I'll continue to monitor this particular system, but not gonna get my hopes up ever again until I see the flakes actually hitting the pavement.

I'll take the bait....this storm has got to be the one for us...falls on my Mom's birthday and my sister's anniversary...so has to be good luck. If not, we'll learn more about the weather, and we'll go on to the next one.


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DeepSouthSC
post Jan 7 2010, 11:26 PM
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QUOTE(dawgnkitten @ Jan 7 2010, 11:13 PM) *
I'll take the bait....this storm has got to be the one for us...falls on my Mom's birthday and my sister's anniversary...so has to be good luck. If not, we'll learn more about the weather, and we'll go on to the next one.


Maybe, you'll get lucky with this event and not myself since it'll fall on your mother's birthday and your sister's anniversary. If, you do get "lucky...." Hopefully, you'll pass it my way. lol

Oh! I've learned quite a bit (about the weather) in the year since I've been on here. I'm soaking it up like a sponge. lol It's interesting and quite intruiging. I've always had a hunch about what I'm about to say.... But, I've definitely found out that it's an inexact science when predicting southern snowstorms.

And, that my friend is why I'll never take the bait until I actually see the flakes hitting the pavement.

By the way, I believe you once mentioned that your sister is deceased, right? Prayers and God have mercy on her soul.
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NWATL
post Jan 8 2010, 08:22 AM
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This mornings GFS run at 216hrs: Something definitely to watch.


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dawgnkitten
post Jan 8 2010, 08:36 AM
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QUOTE(DeepSouthSC @ Jan 7 2010, 11:26 PM) *
Maybe, you'll get lucky with this event and not myself since it'll fall on your mother's birthday and your sister's anniversary. If, you do get "lucky...." Hopefully, you'll pass it my way. lol

Oh! I've learned quite a bit (about the weather) in the year since I've been on here. I'm soaking it up like a sponge. lol It's interesting and quite intruiging. I've always had a hunch about what I'm about to say.... But, I've definitely found out that it's an inexact science when predicting southern snowstorms.

And, that my friend is why I'll never take the bait until I actually see the flakes hitting the pavement.

By the way, I believe you once mentioned that your sister is deceased, right? Prayers and God have mercy on her soul.

No, both of my sisters are alive....


--------------------

Just having fun in FL...miss it at times, especially the gorgeous sunsets...taken on 7/14/11
Live for today, for yesterday is the past, and tomorrow is a distant dream of hope
Many will come into your life, a few will leave their footprints, and a couple will break your heart.
Love is the source of all things-Good and Evil. @---}---
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Weatherlover
post Jan 8 2010, 09:53 AM
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QUOTE(NWATL @ Jan 8 2010, 08:22 AM) *
This mornings GFS run at 216hrs: Something definitely to watch.


NWS in Peachtree City seems to be optimistic about this storm, I'm suprised they are even mentioning it 10 days out like this.

QUOTE
BEYOND WED...GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS S TX AND SHIFT NE BY THE WEEKEND. MODEL RUNS VARY ON
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD IMPACT PCPN TYPE. 850MB
TEMPS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PCPN BY THE 17TH AND
18TH...BUT WAY TOO FAR OUT TO WORRY ABOUT THAT.
FOR NOW...HAVE JUST
ADVERTISED RAIN AND CHC POPS...AS TIMING ALSO IN QUESTION FROM ONE
MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT.


Source: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1


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Winter of 2011 - 2012 in Review
Number of Snowstorms this winter --> 0
Number of Icestorms this Winter --> 0
Number of Sleetstorms this winter --> 0
Total Snowfall Accumulations --> 0 inches
Total Ice Accumulations --> 0 inches
Total Sleet Accumulations --> 0 inches


"Never underestimate the power of mother nature."

"When it comes to computer models, the final solution is NEVER the final solution."

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MJW-S
post Jan 8 2010, 09:53 AM
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Folks, don't get taken in by the GFS again this far out! long range, we were supposed to have a Christmas snow, got rain instead. Snow for New Years, rain instead. Big snow for yesterday, most folks got nada. Now calling for a storm on the 16th but it will be far too warm to snow south of the Mason-Dixon line by then. This model can not be trusted past 24 hours and you should ignore it for the most part this far out. JB also said this was going to be a SE centered winter but, except for some rare cold in the deepest part of the SE, this has been a Midwest, NE, and Mid-Atlantic winter precip wise as usual. Now there is a long way to go yet but we will start the " barely too warm to snow" next week and will have to go back to the "wishing and hoping and praying" (apologies to Dusty Springfield) for a late season lucky hit type snowstorm. Not trying to be too negative here, just being realistic and while these threads can be fun to wishcast on based on the GFS, they seldom turn out the way most want them to. To those in Ga. who got some snow from this, congrats and good on ya!
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