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> Feb 15-18 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Forecast Thread Closed; Move to OBS
Weatherjunkie
post Feb 1 2010, 03:40 PM
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Let's see if I can go 2/2 in storm creation threads for significant snowfall along the eastern U.S.

12z GFS
Attached Image


I've seen enough Euro weekly updates, KMA outlooks, and pro mets to know that this time frame bears watching. GFS for a few days now has hinted at big storm potential during this time frame as well.

12z GEFS NAO Outlook (predominately west based)

Attached Image

MJO looks to be well entrenched in phases 7/8.

This post has been edited by Weatherjunkie: Feb 6 2010, 03:20 PM


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The Big Snowstor...
post Feb 1 2010, 03:48 PM
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Watch this storm actually happen, my Uncle's wedding is on the 12th...lol! laugh.gif


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gulfofslides
post Feb 1 2010, 03:51 PM
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QUOTE(The Big Snowstorm @ Feb 1 2010, 03:48 PM) *
Watch this storm actually happen, my Uncle's wedding is on the 12th...lol! laugh.gif

I think Eliot referred briefly to this event as having potential to blossom into something significant
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plowxpress
post Feb 1 2010, 04:15 PM
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That's beautiful. Just got in, haven't had time to look at models yet. It is going to be a awesome 2 weeks of forecasting........
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Feb 2 2010, 11:32 AM
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Manitoba Mauler, miller B cycobomb. Anyone remember Jan 2005?
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Feb 2 2010, 11:44 AM
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Guidance is pretty much in agreement on an explosive disturbance called the Manitoba Mauler, because it dives out of Manitoba, Canada and with such a disturbance diving into the US means an amplified pattern must be evolving. So within 10 days we will have three major storm opportunities including tonight and tomorrows storm which will predominately stay out to sea followed by a monster nor'easter and then a monster miller B with the opportunity for explosive cyclogenesis as it reaches the Delmarva Peninsula. 12z GFS is not as gung ho, but it is in its own cha cha cha mode. More to come on this storm once we get the blizzard out of the way.
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SyracuseSnow
post Feb 2 2010, 05:29 PM
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ECM shows a huge storm over eastern Maine, GGEM is even stronger with the storm just North of CNY
Attached Image

Attached Image


This post has been edited by SyracuseSnow: Feb 2 2010, 05:34 PM


--------------------
KSYR Statistics
Least Snowiest Winter 50.6" (2011-2012)
Snowiest Winter 192.1" (1992-1993)
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Feb 2 2010, 05:43 PM
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proMET wx4cast

Getting really psyched for Tues-Wed of next week for us...stll see strong potential for a "two-fer"/ hybrid type event for NY and New England...sort of a pseudo SWF/overunning as "Clipper" type system drops SE from GL...then redevlopemt and development on coastas short comes up thru the Lower MS Valley to Delmarva then bisects New England.

I do not see the PV rotating around enough to bring the weekend storm's QP far enough to the north probably to I-84-I95 at this point in time. Could get up to the Pike and affect areas south of it....

Next week its our turn.....


http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?sh...1464&st=180


Seems llike the ggem was an appsruner/glc..And the euro seem to be heading that way..

Just watch out for too much retrogression of the PV. As I posted above, the ggem takes the surface low through BUF next week...and extrapolating the euro would probably offer a similar scenario. I think we want to dump the PV into the western Great Lakes, not the upper Midwest

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Feb 2 2010, 05:44 PM


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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Weatherjunkie
post Feb 2 2010, 06:34 PM
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I like the look of the 18z GFS at hour 156, not so much afterward but plenty of time to play around with this. Not sure what to do about this thread title though since we are lacking storm potential until around the 13+.


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Torontoweather
post Feb 2 2010, 06:44 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Feb 2 2010, 05:43 PM) *
proMET wx4cast

Getting really psyched for Tues-Wed of next week for us...stll see strong potential for a "two-fer"/ hybrid type event for NY and New England...sort of a pseudo SWF/overunning as "Clipper" type system drops SE from GL...then redevlopemt and development on coastas short comes up thru the Lower MS Valley to Delmarva then bisects New England.

I do not see the PV rotating around enough to bring the weekend storm's QP far enough to the north probably to I-84-I95 at this point in time. Could get up to the Pike and affect areas south of it....

Next week its our turn.....
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?sh...1464&st=180
Seems llike the ggem was an appsruner/glc..And the euro seem to be heading that way..

Just watch out for too much retrogression of the PV. As I posted above, the ggem takes the surface low through BUF next week...and extrapolating the euro would probably offer a similar scenario. I think we want to dump the PV into the western Great Lakes, not the upper Midwest


Oh man, the solutions the ECM and GGEM have would be a blizzard most likely in my area. I just hope it doesn't go south like the GFS suggests. As well why does the GFS show this around Tuesday, but the GGEM and ECM show it around the Thursday time period?Thanks to anyone who answers! laugh.gif


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Mike W IN herkim...
post Feb 2 2010, 06:51 PM
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Tuesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

HAVE PLACED ALL ZONES IN
CHC CATEGORY FOR SNOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WITH SIGNIFICANT
MID-LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND HEADS
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

Dont really knw whats going on lol But 40 % chance of snow this far out is pretty good..


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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Blizzard of 78
post Feb 2 2010, 07:57 PM
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NWS-BOS made reference to this storm in the late afternoon discussion timing it around the Tuesday time frame.
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UTWeather
post Feb 2 2010, 09:20 PM
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Does anyone know what temps. are like for this time period in the Northern Mid Atlantic?
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BtownWxWatcher
post Feb 2 2010, 11:36 PM
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0z GFS has the storm, brings moderate snow to the mid atlantic, this winter seems like it will never end.


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Joshua Neyhart
post Feb 2 2010, 11:37 PM
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QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Feb 2 2010, 11:36 PM) *
0z GFS has the storm, brings moderate snow to the mid atlantic, this winter seems like it will never end.




some people have barely had a winter.....so please, keep that attitude to yourself.
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LoveNYCSnow
post Feb 2 2010, 11:44 PM
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another snowstorm for DC on the 0Z GFS,lol. Do people down there even know how to handle all this snow?


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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LUCC
post Feb 3 2010, 07:00 AM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Feb 2 2010, 11:44 PM) *
another snowstorm for DC on the 0Z GFS,lol. Do people down there even know how to handle all this snow?

They'll just use some of the stimulus money and hire some illegals. laugh.gif


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Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
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dcsnowgirl
post Feb 3 2010, 10:32 AM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 3 2010, 07:00 AM) *
They'll just use some of the stimulus money and hire some illegals. laugh.gif


We are handling it all just fine laugh.gif
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Torontoweather
post Feb 3 2010, 11:54 AM
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QUOTE(dcsnowgirl @ Feb 3 2010, 10:32 AM) *
We are handling it all just fine laugh.gif



Can Toronto have some of that snow? laugh.gif Just kidding, we had 2 really good snowy winter the past two years, but we haven't actually seen a real snowstorm this year. Do you guys in DC realize you are going to beat Toronto and possibly Detroit(they have more snow than Toronto) this winter in snowfall! huh.gif ohmy.gif
That is incredible. Next winter is our turn(I hope). unsure.gif


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Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)!
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"Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!"
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LoveNYCSnow
post Feb 3 2010, 12:15 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Feb 3 2010, 11:54 AM) *
Can Toronto have some of that snow? laugh.gif Just kidding, we had 2 really good snowy winter the past two years, but we haven't actually seen a real snowstorm this year. Do you guys in DC realize you are going to beat Toronto and possibly Detroit(they have more snow than Toronto) this winter in snowfall! huh.gif ohmy.gif
That is incredible. Next winter is our turn(I hope). unsure.gif


I think I even have more snow then Toronto and its been a fairly average winter here so far. Toronto is really getting shafted, so is most of upstate NY. But theres always march for you guys.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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