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> The Biggest Busts (in winter storms)
NYCSuburbs
post Feb 6 2010, 09:20 AM
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I decided to open a thread for the top busts in winter storms. I'm in the middle of a bust right now, but it's a relatively minor bust compared to other historical storms.

Below are my top busts, in order from the biggest to the smaller busts:

1. January 14, 2008 - I still can't forget that one. I was supposed to have 6-12 inches of snow, and instead I got heavy rain and thunderstorms. There were barely a few wet flakes at the end, and it even rained afterwards at 30 degrees, and it was plain rain, not freezing rain.

2. March 1-3, 2009 - I call it the biggest dissapointment of the winter of 08-09. After a very inactive winter, I was finally supposed to see 12+ inches of snow. But at the last minute, the snow band split with NE NJ exactly in the middle, only seeing light to moderate snow. Out of that forecast, I only got 4 inches of snow. And if that wasn't enough, the entire second part of the storm dissipated before reaching me.

3. December 5-7, 2005 - This was quite a while ago, though I still remember some parts of it. I was supposed to see several inches out of that storm, and I was planning on shoveling the following morning. I woke up to a few flurries with no accumulation.

4. February 6, 2010 - That's today. I was supposed to see 2-4 to 3-5 inches of snow, and the last minute models even trended north, bringing me 10 inches of snow on the GFS. The snow band stalled in central NJ, and I woke up to a dry, cloudy morning. Not a single flake fell.

5. December 18-20, 2009 - Also another bust. I was supposed to see 12-18 inches of snow, making it my biggest snowstorm since February 2006. Instead, I got what would probably be a record breaking 16 hours of virga, followed by 3 hours of heavy snow. I ended up with 7 inches, which was and still is my biggest snowstorm since 2006.

6. February 16, 2010 - While originally a negative bust, this storm quickly turned into an overperformer. At first I had 1/2 inch while places around me had 2-5 inches. Then a heavy snow band went through my area with extremely heavy snow, and I picked up 6 inches out of what was supposed to be 2-4 inches of snow.

7. January 19, 2009 - Here's actually a positive bust. I was supposed to see a few flakes that day, and the light snow started falling, but did not end and instead intensified. The NWS then updated the forecast to say up to 1/2 inch of snow, but instead a long band of very heavy snow set up from SW CT to SE PA, and stalled. In those 4 hours of heavy snow, I got a total of 3.5 inches of snow, when the forecast originally called for no accumulation. That was my 3rd biggest snowfall of the winter of 08-09.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Feb 16 2010, 01:35 PM
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PAsnowmobile
post Feb 6 2010, 09:28 AM
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good thread idea.. I can't think of any of my busts atm because i'm still experiencing pain from receiving less than 3" from 2 blizzards this year sleep.gif

Will update this post with my past busts later on, when I research them back into my memory.

This post has been edited by PAsnowmobile: Feb 6 2010, 09:28 AM


--------------------
Bloomsburg University '14
09-10 Snowfall Total: 35.9"
10-11 Snowfalls to date:
10/21/10 - First snow flakes
11/25/10 - 1.5"
12/8/10 - 1.5" (LES)
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WNYLakeEffect
post Feb 6 2010, 10:47 AM
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Oh where do I start...Living in the Lake Erie lake effect belt, and at that, the edge of the heart of it, at least 75% of my storms bust either way. I'm used to it. The little ones usually don't bother me, but one double bust in particular stands out.

December 19th and 21-23th, 2008 was the worst double bust ever. For the first storm, it was synoptic and we were forecast to be the bulls-eye of the region. The NWS had 9-13", mostly falling in the morning. We started out with very heavy snow and school was even canceled in advance (a rare sight here). By 9am we'd already had 3 or 4" of snow, but then it changed to sleet. And then it sleeted and sleeted and sleeted. And then, FREEZING RAIN. While this was happening, Buffalo, which was forecast to get 6-10", was getting clobbered. Some of the north towns finished near 18". I finished with 5". I'd already had over 65" for the season, so I wasn't really mad, but I wasn't happy either.

The 21-23th, which was lake effect, however, bumped me to mad. We knew it was going to start up north. All FROPA events do. So it's Sunday morning and snow starts up in Buffalo. A very nice band with very heavy snow. Cool, this was expected. Now it was supposed to move south. It didn't. So it continues ripping up in Buffalo all day. The 300pm updates come out. "IT'S GONNA MOVE SOUTH!!!!11!". NWS comes out with 12-18" for my forecast Sunday night and something like 17-23" to my north. A local met who will remain unnamed was talking a box on her forecast where well over 2 feet would fall and I was just at the edge of it! Snow was supposed to move south just after midnight with a shortwave and 2-3"/hr rates were supposed to settle over me. Another 5-9" was supposed to fall on Monday. I was set. Guess what I woke up to?

A wind-blown 4-6". I don't really know what happened to this day, but I have two theories:

1)Winds kept the southerly component too long.
2)Winds were to strong to allow the forecast band to form.

So then, through Monday, it snowed steadily, but nothing over 5DBZ showed up on radar. So I ended up getting 6-8" more of snow that didn't fall according to radar.

Finished with 12" total, which, don't get me wrong, is a respectable total, but versus the "in excess of two feet" forecast, it was a bust that made a bad weekend worse.

And then two days later, it rained on Christmas.

And then another New Years storm busted. 10" fell in Buffalo and just an inch or two here, versus a forecast 4-6" here and 2-4" in Buffalo.

The December 17th to 31st curse lived on.

This post has been edited by WNYLakeEffect: Feb 6 2010, 10:49 AM


--------------------
Winter 2010-11 Snow: 148.0"
Winter 2009-10 Snow: 128.3"
Winter 2008-09 Snow: 175.0"
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mnwx
post Feb 11 2010, 01:22 AM
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One that will stick in my mind for a long time to come will be the Christmas blizzard of 2009. I was expecting to get nearly 20" of snow. Unfortunately Lake Superior warmed the air too much in the areas near the lake and the heavy snow changed over to rain and sleet. This really cut down on my accumulations. I did end up with a foot of slop but areas inland got all snow and had 2 feet. So that was a bit disheartening.
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SnowMan11
post Feb 11 2010, 07:16 PM
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March 2001 and Jan 2008


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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Feb 12 2010, 06:17 PM
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Blizzard of 2006 was one of the top five for me:

I was forecasted to see 12"+

But I got 6-8"

Also the February 9-10, 2010 Snowstorm I was forecasted to get at least 4-8", I got 2" of slop snow with snow/rain mix throughout the day on Wednesday, it was one of the worst.

There was two consecutive storms in the winter of 2001-2002 where we had a winter storm warning in effect the day of the storm, but got about a few hours of flurries and a total snow accumulation of 1-2" after being forecasted for 12"+.
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SEMIweather
post Feb 14 2010, 06:28 PM
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This baby last year, at one point I think I was forecast to get 8-12" ... 3:1 ratios kinda killed that. laugh.gif


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kab2791
post Feb 14 2010, 10:43 PM
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Me, Ajdos, Steve..., MdReFlux, as some others know what was the biggest bust was: New Years of 2008. Ok, all of SE Lower MI was supposed to receive 6-10" of snow, and even Toledo. SLP was supposed to ride south of MI. It started off as some rain, which was expected, but was then supposed to turn into very heavy snowfall. Ok, it did turn into 2" per hour snowfall, but for only 1 hour. Only one hour of snow to give me 2" of snow, then dryslot all night long. You have to understand how mad I was because places 20 miles west of me were seeing snowfall rates of 2-5" of snow per hour for several hours, while I was stuck in the dryslot. Why?? SLP rides over my backyard. You know how the storm ended up? Places in one county to my west received 16" of snow and a boatload of happy memories (John, I hate you). It was depressing seeing the news the next morning; seeing how deep the snow was for places west of me, while my grass was already showing through the measely 2" of wet snow that begun melting quickly.

See this link for radar loop/surface features from this storm:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/01Jan2008/01Jan2008.shtml

This graphic and NWS write up makes me so angry to this day.
Attached Image
QUOTE
ZCZC ARBPNSDTX
NOUS43 KDTX 011925
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SNOWFALL REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
220 PM EST TUE JAN 01 2008

NEW YEARS DAY 2008 WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE SNOWIEST NEW YEARS
ON RECORD...BUT ALSO AS ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE SNOWSTORMS IN
RECORDED HISTORY OVER A LARGE SECTION OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETWEEN 12 AND 16 INCHES OF SNOW FELL IN A SWATH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ROUGHLY FROM BRIGHTON IN SOUTH
LIVINGSTON COUNTY TO LEXINGTON IN SOUTHEAST ST CLAIR COUNTY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERED OFF BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS
AREA.

A TIGHTLY PACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF DOWNTOWN DETROIT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HEAVY
SNOW FELL TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THIS TRACK AND FELL STEADILY AT A
RATE OF NEARLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR FROM ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TO 7AM.
SNOWFALL RATES ACTUALLY APPROACHED 4 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES
BETWEEN 4AM AND 6AM ALONG THE M59 AND I69 CORRIDORS. THERE WERE ALSO
SEVERAL REPORTS OF THUNDERSNOW DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME. THE BULK
OF THE SNOWFALL...INCLUDING THE REPORTS IN EXCESS OF ONE FOOT...FELL
IN LESS THAN 7 HOURS...MAKING THIS TRULY ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE
SNOWS ON RECORD.

QUOTE
EASTPOINTE 2.0
mad.gif


http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_event....now200801021003


--------------------
University of Detroit Mercy Math Minor 2009-2011
Central Michigan University Meteorology Major, GIS Minor


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2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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chschargers09
post Feb 15 2010, 10:26 AM
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QUOTE(kab2791 @ Feb 14 2010, 10:43 PM) *
Me, Ajdos, Steve..., MdReFlux, as some others know what was the biggest bust was: New Years of 2008. Ok, all of SE Lower MI was supposed to receive 6-10" of snow, and even Toledo. SLP was supposed to ride south of MI. It started off as some rain, which was expected, but was then supposed to turn into very heavy snowfall. Ok, it did turn into 2" per hour snowfall, but for only 1 hour. Only one hour of snow to give me 2" of snow, then dryslot all night long. You have to understand how mad I was because places 20 miles west of me were seeing snowfall rates of 2-5" of snow per hour for several hours, while I was stuck in the dryslot. Why?? SLP rides over my backyard. You know how the storm ended up? Places in one county to my west received 16" of snow and a boatload of happy memories (John, I hate you). It was depressing seeing the news the next morning; seeing how deep the snow was for places west of me, while my grass was already showing through the measely 2" of wet snow that begun melting quickly.

See this link for radar loop/surface features from this storm:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/01Jan2008/01Jan2008.shtml

This graphic and NWS write up makes me so angry to this day.
Attached Image

mad.gif
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_event....now200801021003

*sigh* i hate this storm. i got 5 inches, and 20 miles north got 16....
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MIDMIWeather
post Feb 15 2010, 02:50 PM
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I'll think of some here over the next hour and come back and post, but, I want to just start off by noting this entire winter as a bust.

Actually, can prob end it at that.

laugh.gif
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Feb 20 2010, 02:59 PM
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QUOTE(MIDMIWeather @ Feb 15 2010, 02:50 PM) *
I'll think of some here over the next hour and come back and post, but, I want to just start off by noting this entire winter as a bust.

Actually, can prob end it at that.

laugh.gif


i don't believe it was ever your winter.
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SnowMan11
post Mar 4 2010, 01:20 PM
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I'm shocked no one is mentioning March 2001/


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TheMaineMan
post Mar 12 2010, 12:46 PM
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A positive bust:

The final week of April in 2007. Almost all of the snowpack had melted, and after a nice 65 -70 degree day, we were forecast to get some rain that night.

Woke up to 3 new inches of snow on the ground... followed by another 70 degree day... and wow did that snow melt fast. blink.gif The snow was never called for though, and was a nice surprise.

That was also the last time I saw April snow.


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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Sticksboi05
post Jul 1 2010, 07:47 PM
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March 2001. Weather Channel and Kocin hyped that up to absurd amounts and we got nothing.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 2 2010, 08:48 AM
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I think the worst year for me had to have been in 2007... hardly any snow and virtually no cold air. couldnt snowboard and they couldnt make fake snow either! The season was cut literally in half! the place was open for a total of 53 days. Also that year came probably the worst storm i could remember... presidents day storm we were forecast to get feet of snow atleast 18-24". Got out of school early and nothing had even started until that night. temps were hovering around 28 so it seemed plenty cold for the start of the storm especially. Later that day around dinner time say 6pm it started to finally snow. It started lightly than came down really good. Had atleast 2" on the ground and was actually suprised at how well the storm was going and thinking it would be an overproducer. Literally as we were driving home from going out to eat all the sudden you heard ping ping ping all over the car. At first i thought maybe they were throwing salt down early to keep up with the snow since it was fairly close to freezing. Nope sleet. it mixed with snow and sleet that night and woke up to 4" of snow and sleet on the ground. Now it wasn't over yet. The winds started to pick up and i guess the warm air really started to enter the region a bit more so now it was all sleet and very heavy at that! For the next was probably 2 days we had nothing but sleet around here atleast 5-6" of sleet had fallen from this storm. But the warm air was not done yet it changed it to freezing rain for a little while so now you have the perfect bonding agent, sleet, all over the ground with a pretty nice coating of freezing rain. It was like trying to shovel cinder blocks it was soooo heavy!

I also have a positive story! March 1st of 2009 storm! Best storm i can think of yet and weatherjunkie would probably agree atleast one of top 5 storms around here. We were forecasted to get a quick 1-3" snow. Well the days leading up to the storm the models began to show a little more snow. So they decided to up the forecast to 2-4" and stick us with a snow advisory, when they were still around, and that would be that. They said most of it would fall in the day and have a fairly hard time sticking to the ground since it was warm a couple days before the storm. Well the storm started out as rain. I was extremely disappointed. All the sudden some fairly decent cooling aloft changed the rain over to some very heavy snow. It was amazing seeing the atmosphere cool all the way to the surface just amazing. After an hour of the rain as i said it turned to heavy snow. It snowed and snowed and snowed. The ground was starting to get covered. I was at work and was pretty suprised by this. Working till 3pm i didnt think it would be that bad driving home with such a light coating. All the sudden the clouds let loose. It snowed so hard and with such huge flakes you could barely see the roadway 20 feet away from the store! It snowed like this until i got off work at 3 so in a matter of 3 hours since the change over we were looking at 4-5" of snow not bad since our forecast called for 2-4". I brushed off my car and was ready to get going. Tried to back out and couldnt too well but somehow managed to. As i was driving there is a slight hill in front of might work and when i mean slight it is slight barely even call it a hill. Well i was driving down that and hit the breaks lightly and just wouldnt stop. I was pumping and pumping the breaks but nothing was happening thank goodness no one was out at the time since everyone around here is afraid to drive in the snow. I was on my way home and the roads were horrible. There was only one lane open on a two sided street nothing was plowed and it was just a mess but it looked amazing outside. What normally takes me 5 mins to get home took me a half hour. i went to stop again to go into my neighborhood and on a flat surface just kept sliding and sliding and sliding. I thought it was fun! Got home went and measured and saw we had 6" and now they issued a winter storm warning. At the end we got 11 almost pushing 12" of snow! Amazing suprise storm!

Another would have to also be the october storm of 2008 i believe it was... Where it was a huge coatal storm that pounded the poconoes and somehow went from 2" of heavy rain for atleast a day to a quick snowstorm that dropped 2" of snow in october! almost never happens here! the dynamics with these two storms were just amazing! So neat to see that changeover from the rain to snow. My friends a half hour away picked up about 6" Crazy winter weather around here.

Luckily the one we have yet to experience here is an insane FZR storm! It was close one time but then turned to rain.


--------------------
Tylor
Aspiring Meteorologist, Now living at millersville university


Computer models and other important sites: http://southeastpaweather.blogspot.com/
Average: 23"
2008-2009 34" 148% of normal
2009-2010 74" 322% of normal
2010-2011 42" 183% of normal
Coldest Temp: 10
Average: 40.1"
Rainfall...32.10" (may be off by 1-2") well above average this year... Havent updated since Late july!
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NYCSuburbs
post Jul 10 2010, 02:19 PM
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Bringing this topic back alive... negative bust today. After very dry conditions developing, with most gardens becoming yellow and water restrictions in place, rainfall over 2 inches was likely today, with a slow moving line of intense storms that brought up to 3-5 inches for some places. Just when it got to western Bergen county, the line stalled and collapsed. As a result, NYC was almost the only place out of the entire Northeast and Mid Atlantic not to see rain.

Now we have to hope that the middle of next week brings a lot of rain here. The latest models are wet for that time period, but who knows, they were also very wet for today.


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Beck
post Jul 23 2010, 04:35 PM
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That Pacific Storm fused with Typhoon Melor remnants last October 2009. LA/OC Counties and farther north got absurd amounts of rainfall, more than 2" in some cases, and just 50 miles south we got almost nothing at all (0.15"). I was furious with this storm, especially with all the hype that led up to it. That whole day, very dark rain-filled clouds were visible to the north. The system refused to go any farther south than Los Angeles.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.37" (+0.21")
Normal to-date precipitation: 0.16"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.81"

Temecula Weather Pages

QUOTE(wingsovernc @ Sep 13 2014, 04:20 PM) *
You're cute when you're whining Becky :)
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olinger4933
post Aug 11 2010, 09:32 AM
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New to posting here, so here goes.....

In my area of NW VA, storm busts are all too common, especially winter storms. I can recall way more than I want to remember, so I'll go w/ the most recent, Feb 10, 2010:

On the heels of a great storm (26") on Feb. 5-6, we were forecasted by NWS and local METs to get 8 - 16" of new snow (we still had 24" on the ground!) and true blizzard conditions. It could have been a truly historic event, and potentially set the mark for the greatest snow cover ever, and certainly the most snowfall in one year (it had been a great year - we got 21" on Dec 19, and several other 3 - 5 inch events). That storm ended up being historic for many people, but I was on the southern most fringe of a tight-gradient storm and received only 3" of wind-blown snow. Places not more than 15 miles north and east got 9+ inches. DC, only 60 miles east, got well over a foot and Balt and Philly set records from that storm. Here in the mountains of the Shenandoah Valley, we got next to nothing. It quit snowing here that day at 11:00 AM (forecasted to snow until overnight hours), and the sun was shining brightly by noon (with just a lot of wind) while it continued snowing in DC until 11:00 PM. It snowed at the VA/WV (I-81) line until late evening, not even 30 miles away. It had been cold for a couple of weeks already and would stay cold for another two; we would've had multiple feet of snow cover for weeks. I know I shouldn't complain after that kind of winter we'd had, but this storm still leaves an empty spot in my heart. It feels like I'd waited my entire life for an event like this. To quote a line from a great movie, "It's like being this close to your dream (fingers inches apart) and then watching it brush past you like a stranger in the crowd."

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StormStalker
post Sep 13 2010, 09:27 PM
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Good and bad bust:

Very strange... last year's Christmas storm. I think originally the models took the low through Gary, IN, (this was very early though) and I was supposed to get 6-12 inches. As time went on, the models trended west, torching me with 60s and rain for Christmas. (Which happened) On the 26th though, something happened with the Low and stalled it in Iowa, but the CAA was already dominating, and I got hit with a stalled band of heavy snow. Got 11 inches from the storm anyway, only a day late.

http://www.examiner.com/images/blog/EXID30...nowfall_map.jpg

Pink baby.





--------------------
Winter 2011-2012 Snow Accumulation Log
NADA!

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an uncanny otter
post Oct 23 2010, 03:25 PM
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Living on the northern edge of Lake Erie, we don't really get lake effect accumulations, so most major snowfalls come from winter storms. I can recall a lot of times we were predicted to get 30+ cm of snow but didn't receive nearly that much, but one storm in particular stands out.

It was mid-November 2008. Winds were coming from the north, and lake effect snow was streaming off of Lake Huron. I remember that from the satellite images, one intense band of snow looked like it was making a beeline for us. The day before it was supposed to hit, they issued special announcements at school about the snow, which I've neve heard them say before. Everybody was really excited and pumped for the 30 cm or more of snow we were going to receive, especially considering this was only November!

The next day, nothing. Not even a single snowflake fell where I live. Sarnia received two feet of snow - some places got more than three feet! - but we didn't even get a trace. What made it even more painful was that the places that really got hammered were not even an hour away from where I live. I had friends gloating about the snow they got, and it really, really, stunk. >:(
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