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> The Biggest Busts (in winter storms)
WNYLakeEffect
post Nov 5 2010, 07:26 PM
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QUOTE(an uncanny otter @ Oct 23 2010, 04:25 PM) *
Living on the northern edge of Lake Erie, we don't really get lake effect accumulations, so most major snowfalls come from winter storms. I can recall a lot of times we were predicted to get 30+ cm of snow but didn't receive nearly that much, but one storm in particular stands out.

It was mid-November 2008. Winds were coming from the north, and lake effect snow was streaming off of Lake Huron. I remember that from the satellite images, one intense band of snow looked like it was making a beeline for us. The day before it was supposed to hit, they issued special announcements at school about the snow, which I've neve heard them say before. Everybody was really excited and pumped for the 30 cm or more of snow we were going to receive, especially considering this was only November!

The next day, nothing. Not even a single snowflake fell where I live. Sarnia received two feet of snow - some places got more than three feet! - but we didn't even get a trace. What made it even more painful was that the places that really got hammered were not even an hour away from where I live. I had friends gloating about the snow they got, and it really, really, stunk. >:(


Was that around November 21-22? That was a frustrating event. Ended up with 8 inches, which fell in less than 4 hours.


--------------------
Winter 2010-11 Snow: 148.0"
Winter 2009-10 Snow: 128.3"
Winter 2008-09 Snow: 175.0"
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North Dakota Lif...
post Nov 12 2010, 12:01 AM
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QUOTE(mnwx @ Feb 11 2010, 12:22 AM) *
One that will stick in my mind for a long time to come will be the Christmas blizzard of 2009. I was expecting to get nearly 20" of snow. Unfortunately Lake Superior warmed the air too much in the areas near the lake and the heavy snow changed over to rain and sleet. This really cut down on my accumulations. I did end up with a foot of slop but areas inland got all snow and had 2 feet. So that was a bit disheartening.

I could write a book describing all the busts Grand Forks has been subjected to during my lifetime, but we got 25 inches from the 2009 Christmas storm. That is what Atlantic moisture will do for the middle of the North American continent!


--------------------
North Dakota Lifer

Grand Forks: North Dakota's "Dry Air Snow Shield" Leader!!!

"North Dakota...if our weather doesn't kill you, it makes you stronger!!!"

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an uncanny otter
post Nov 13 2010, 12:46 AM
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QUOTE(WNYLakeEffect @ Nov 5 2010, 07:26 PM) *
Was that around November 21-22? That was a frustrating event. Ended up with 8 inches, which fell in less than 4 hours.
Yeah, I think so. I would have killed to get 8 inches from that.
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Ithiel
post Dec 4 2010, 03:18 AM
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QUOTE(kab2791 @ Feb 14 2010, 10:43 PM) *
Me, Ajdos, Steve..., MdReFlux, as some others know what was the biggest bust was: New Years of 2008. Ok, all of SE Lower MI was supposed to receive 6-10" of snow, and even Toledo. SLP was supposed to ride south of MI. It started off as some rain, which was expected, but was then supposed to turn into very heavy snowfall. Ok, it did turn into 2" per hour snowfall, but for only 1 hour. Only one hour of snow to give me 2" of snow, then dryslot all night long. You have to understand how mad I was because places 20 miles west of me were seeing snowfall rates of 2-5" of snow per hour for several hours, while I was stuck in the dryslot. Why?? SLP rides over my backyard. You know how the storm ended up? Places in one county to my west received 16" of snow and a boatload of happy memories (John, I hate you). It was depressing seeing the news the next morning; seeing how deep the snow was for places west of me, while my grass was already showing through the measely 2" of wet snow that begun melting quickly.

Ohhhh man, I will never forget that bust. Detroit and it's surrounding suburbs have gotten an absurd amount of busts in my lifetime, but none get me quite like that one does. I didn't even end up getting an entire inch of snow, there were just humongous flakes for about 2 hours with the temperature sitting at 33F the entire time. I couldn't believe that just 35 miles north people were shoveling out of 12"+ of snow.

One other bust, and this was a while back so I can't recall the date correctly, but I think it was in the winter of 2003? I remember 6-12" of snow being forecast for me when I went to bed with near blizzard conditions. I woke up to rain and snow mixed with very strong wind gusts and a temperature of 37F. Not a single trace of snow fell that day.

If anyone can remember or correct me on the timing of that one, I'd be glad. It was up there with the worst busts ever for me.


--------------------
Winter 2013-2014

First Snowflakes: 11/11/13
First Measurable Snow: 11/11/13
First 3"+ Snowfall: 12/14/13
First 6"+ Snowfall: 12/14/13
First 10"+ Snowfall: 12/31/13 - 01/02/14
Greatest Snowfall: 11.0" (01/05/14)
Seasonal Snowfall Total: 90.2"
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Sagebrusher
post Dec 6 2010, 08:47 PM
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Well, not a particular storm but a season...last winter I worked at Mt. Rushmore in the southern Black Hills of South Dakota. I had looked forward to a lot of snow as I had always heard that the Black Hills gets dumped on. I learned that it is more correct to say that certain AREAS of the Black Hills get dumped on, particularly certain canyons in the northern BH, due to upslope conditions. While we did get a healthy amount of snow at Mount Rushmore, it seemed that for every inch we got, places in the northern BH got 10 times as much.
Maybe next winter I will work at Crater Lake...they always get alot of snow! smile.gif
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North Dakota Lif...
post Dec 9 2010, 11:26 PM
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I grew up (and still live) in Grand Forks, ND and I could write a whole book on all the winter storm busts we've had during my lifetime. We are located in an annoying place on the Upper Midwest map; too far north for the Colorado lows and too far south for the Alberta Clippers. As an all-around weather enthusiast (snow lover in the winter, severe weather watcher in the summer), winter was the most frustrating season for me and people like me (we are an underappreciated minority in this world). With some exceptions, most winter seasons during my childhood (the 1980's) featured winter storm busts, near-misses, you name it.

The silver lining with living here is that snowfall from late November on usually doesn't melt until March or April, so whatever we get we keep for the entire winter (no annoying Chinook winds to melt the snow during the prime of the winter season). But I have lost count of the number of storm days from school I missed out on and the number of massive snow forts I couldn't build because so many major winter storms passed by "to our south". mad.gif rolleyes.gif

That's my story and I'm sticking to it! smile.gif


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North Dakota Lifer

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dmc76
post Dec 10 2010, 12:21 AM
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QUOTE(Ithiel @ Dec 4 2010, 03:18 AM) *
Ohhhh man, I will never forget that bust. Detroit and it's surrounding suburbs have gotten an absurd amount of busts in my lifetime, but none get me quite like that one does. I didn't even end up getting an entire inch of snow, there were just humongous flakes for about 2 hours with the temperature sitting at 33F the entire time. I couldn't believe that just 35 miles north people were shoveling out of 12"+ of snow.

One other bust, and this was a while back so I can't recall the date correctly, but I think it was in the winter of 2003? I remember 6-12" of snow being forecast for me when I went to bed with near blizzard conditions. I woke up to rain and snow mixed with very strong wind gusts and a temperature of 37F. Not a single trace of snow fell that day.

If anyone can remember or correct me on the timing of that one, I'd be glad. It was up there with the worst busts ever for me.


17.5" to be exact. 12" fell in 4 hrs


--------------------
Total Snowfall: 69.7" Biggest Storm: 2/2 11.0" Snow Depth 5"
Snow history: season average L.O 58"from 1995 to 2010

96-97 42.5 97-98 27.5 98-99 71.1" 99-00 44.3" 00-01 58.5" 01-02 47.6"02-03 52.2" 03-04 62.5" 04-05 86.0" 05-06 41.6"06-07 34.5"07-08 99.8"08-09 87.1" 2009/10 49.5"
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Envy
post Feb 10 2011, 06:53 PM
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Oh, so I'm not the only person that's sad when big snows miss?

Early last year we were under a Winter Storm Warning and we were predicted to get around 6-8 inches of snow. The temperatures were supposed to drop into the low 20s/teens during the day just like back in the blizzard of the Christmas eve before (2009). I had class that day and that morning heavy snow was starting to fall and accumulate. When I got out of class I walked outside to very light snow, 37 degrees (it was below freezing before I went to class) and no snow on the ground anymore. Rainstorms came through later in the day if I remember correctly. It got up into the 40s.

Now for the storm a couple of nights ago. It isn't what anybody would call a "bust", but it left me hanging. We were projected to get 8-12 inches of snow where I lived. The heavy bands set up and they went just North of us. The area that was projected to end up with 2-4 inches ended up with 20-25 inches instead, and we ended up with barely 5 inches.

The thing about this storm was it was to make us break the total snowfall record for a winter season. With the 8-12 inches projection we were to beat it by several inches. Instead we beat it by like .4 of an inch. If that heavy band had set up where they thought it had, we would have beaten the record of total snowfall for a total winter season by 15-20 inches, and this record would have been set almost entirely in the period of 8 days (and technically it would have been set in that period, actually the period of 24 hours since the record amount before was 25 inches.)

Not just that, but we hadn't had a good snow in a long time. We finally got one with the blizzard a little over a week ago. However, 20-25 inches would have blown even that out of the water and I would have been left absolutely speechless after these last 8 days.

Although now I have been left speechless from seeing temperatures 21 degrees below 0. In Oklahoma.

Now I realize this was the winter of my lifetime and I'm not likely to ever see anything like this ever again.


--------------------
I'm a cold weather lover stuck in a place where summer dominates and even winter has warm temperatures.
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USA Weather
post Aug 10 2011, 08:24 AM
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Where do I begin? I live near Chicago, so I am in an area where the mid-term shift in the models occurs, which isn't fun. Of course, you do get big snowstorms, but you still get even more busts. Some years were better than others, but the worst winter of all was the winter of 2009-2010. The first was worst. A major blizzard was coming for us December 7-10. We were told to expect 12-16 inches, with 3-5' drifts. School was almost guaranteed to be out. But I got home late to find that the low track had shifted north through Chicago, and we were expected to get 4-6" of slop. I woke up that morning to find 6-8" of slop, enough to potentially cancel school. But, our school had a previously-scheduled late start, so the plows were able to clear roads in time. I was deflated. Next was the Christmas Eve Storm, where about a week out we were getting the big hit. But the track changed about 5 days out and it rained on Christmas Eve. Two days after, the only good bust came: an upper level low came through us and we got 12 hours of dendrites. LOT did an interesting article of how the ratios in this event were nearly 40:1. blink.gif We ended up with a foot. Then we busted on our only snow-day, when 1' turned to 1", and two more times afterword. But the worst ever was the December 7-10th storm of 2009.


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Hi.
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Wild Wisconsin W...
post Oct 1 2011, 04:17 PM
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QUOTE(USA Weather @ Aug 10 2011, 08:24 AM) *
Where do I begin? I live near Chicago, so I am in an area where the mid-term shift in the models occurs, which isn't fun. Of course, you do get big snowstorms, but you still get even more busts. Some years were better than others, but the worst winter of all was the winter of 2009-2010. The first was worst. A major blizzard was coming for us December 7-10. We were told to expect 12-16 inches, with 3-5' drifts. School was almost guaranteed to be out. But I got home late to find that the low track had shifted north through Chicago, and we were expected to get 4-6" of slop. I woke up that morning to find 6-8" of slop, enough to potentially cancel school. But, our school had a previously-scheduled late start, so the plows were able to clear roads in time. I was deflated. Next was the Christmas Eve Storm, where about a week out we were getting the big hit. But the track changed about 5 days out and it rained on Christmas Eve. Two days after, the only good bust came: an upper level low came through us and we got 12 hours of dendrites. LOT did an interesting article of how the ratios in this event were nearly 40:1. blink.gif We ended up with a foot. Then we busted on our only snow-day, when 1' turned to 1", and two more times afterword. But the worst ever was the December 7-10th storm of 2009.


How did you guys even get 6-8" with that Dec. 7-10 storm? You must live far enough away from the lake. I remember that one here in Milwaukee, and areas right along the lake were lucky to get an inch or two. Meanwhile, blizzard conditions and over a foot of snow in some areas presided a county or two inland. Tight, tight gradient on that one. I would have loved to have off of college that day, as I had a final exam speech. Turned out alright anyways.
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USA Weather
post Dec 4 2011, 08:11 AM
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QUOTE(Wild Wisconsin Weather @ Oct 1 2011, 03:17 PM) *
How did you guys even get 6-8" with that Dec. 7-10 storm? You must live far enough away from the lake. I remember that one here in Milwaukee, and areas right along the lake were lucky to get an inch or two. Meanwhile, blizzard conditions and over a foot of snow in some areas presided a county or two inland. Tight, tight gradient on that one. I would have loved to have off of college that day, as I had a final exam speech. Turned out alright anyways.

I live in northern McHenry County in Illinois, so we were at least a little bit better off than others. Still, it was not what it should have been. I remember being very jealous of the people out in the Quad Cities, as they got the worst of this storm. I also remember wanting a snowday really bad, but our school had previously scheduled a late start for that day, and that gave the plows plenty of time to clear out the snow.


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Hi.
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wxhstn74
post Dec 4 2011, 11:56 PM
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I worked for the NWS for 37 years and while there have been many busts on snowstorms...there have been many more close or right on calls and of course, nobody remembers those.

But in all the years I worked in the metro Detroit area, the storm by far that sticks out in my mind was a snowstorm very early in my career...Dec 1st, 1974. I had just started at the Detroit WSFO and was just a forecaster aide at that time.

I will never forget this amazing storm (along with the Jan 26th, 1978 Great Blizzard). It was Thanksgiving weekend and I was working an afternoon shift on Sat and Sun. The official forecast went out as light snow with 1-3" likely early during the day Sun. When I woke the next morning, 1-3" was still in the forecast and when the day ended we totaled near 20" Talk about a bust, I'd like to see someone top that - when you expect a small about and end up with nearly 2 feet! I'm sure they are around.

In fact, I wrote about it and many other events under the Weather Historian title while at the NWS and have continued after retirement with my own blog.

Here are the articles I wrote about the 1974 storm (along with our 1886 storm) and the Great Blizzard of 1978.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/1886-1974.php

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/stories/blizzard1978.php


My blog:
http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/

Bill Deedler


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tdp146
post Jan 18 2012, 02:00 PM
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Wow. Saw a couple mentions of the 2001 bust from those in the North East. For those in the area that might be too young to remember- it was a main stream media news type of a bust. I think it is why paul kocin had to leave the TWC. One day before the event it was billed as being the biggest storm since the blizzard of 1978. Everyone was getting 2 feet. I rememeber kocin saying some parts of the area would see 40 inches. Cities and states took massive precautions including banning certain tractor trailers from I95. School was cancelled in advance for two days. And all I ever saw was rain. And it wasnt just a IMBY type of bust, it was a widespread bust that cost cities and states a lot of money in wasted prep. This is the bench mark of all Busts in the north east.


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NYCSuburbs
post Feb 4 2012, 05:58 PM
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Forget about my original list. The entire "winter" of 2011-12 takes up the entire top 10 laugh.gif
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Illinois blizzar...
post Feb 7 2012, 09:49 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Feb 4 2012, 06:58 PM) *
Forget about my original list. The entire "winter" of 2011-12 takes up the entire top 10 laugh.gif


Amen to that laugh.gif


--------------------
2013:
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

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PSUweatherman
post Feb 14 2012, 01:22 AM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 4 2010, 01:20 PM) *
I'm shocked no one is mentioning March 2001/

Most epic bust ever. Paul Kocin had a spot of 40"+ right over my house in Philly. I respect the guy and think he is awesome, but everyone busted.
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Ackman
post Jun 14 2012, 11:35 PM
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Biggest busts for me occurred within a week of each other and at opposite ends of the spectrum.

The good: December 23rd, 1997. This was the Snow Bomb that hit Middlesex County,MA with up to 2' in some places. It was a negative bust for the coast. My grandparents and I were driving to Waltham on the 23rd. We entered the snow in Hanover. heck of a time getting to the hotel and my aunts house.

The bad: December 27-28th, 1997. Mets were calling for 5-10" to fall on the cape and in SEMASS. We were driving down to Hyannis to get on the boat. Midway through the sound, it started to rain. Boy did it rain. That night, there were some sloppy flakes; and we did end up getting a dusting (0.7")

The ugly: December 29-30th, 1997. An extremely compact low moved up the CT Valley. The mets were comparing this to the no name storm of '91. We got wind, but nothing like '91. We got screwed out of that one. ORH reported snow, but switched to rain. I'm on Nantucket.
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Removed_Member_natedizel_*
post Jul 1 2012, 07:02 PM
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Hey what was the storm system that HM put his big hat on and compared it to the Superstorm of the early 90's. Didnt he get threats or something for that bust lol. it was like 3 or 4 years ago maybe 2 i dont know
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NYCSuburbs
post Jul 6 2012, 12:42 PM
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QUOTE(natedizel @ Jul 1 2012, 08:02 PM) *
Hey what was the storm system that HM put his big hat on and compared it to the Superstorm of the early 90's. Didnt he get threats or something for that bust lol. it was like 3 or 4 years ago maybe 2 i dont know

Not sure exactly but my guess would be February 2009. Was originally modeled to be a superstorm and a massive Apps runner/GLC, but the models quickly lost the storm and it went offshore, then it made another shorter range trend and ended up as a moderate I-95 coastal snowstorm.
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Removed_Member_natedizel_*
post Jul 6 2012, 12:55 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jul 6 2012, 01:42 PM) *
Not sure exactly but my guess would be February 2009. Was originally modeled to be a superstorm and a massive Apps runner/GLC, but the models quickly lost the storm and it went offshore, then it made another shorter range trend and ended up as a moderate I-95 coastal snowstorm.

Haha ya that was it.
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