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> March Outlook, Mean U.S. Synoptic Patterns and Telleconnections
WEATHERFREAK
post Feb 16 2010, 11:34 PM
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May be a bit early but I'm wondering what the month of March will bring us. My guess is the continuation of the extreme -AO and -NAO(at least till The Vernal Equinox). With a flip-floping PNA and a fluctuating El Nino.

Any chance we'll see another The Storm of The Century(like we saw in March 93')? I have this strange feeling we might.


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hckyplayer8
post Feb 17 2010, 02:53 AM
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*images hotlinked
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SnowMan11
post Feb 17 2010, 06:56 AM
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...s1/usT2mMon.gif


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futureweatherman...
post Feb 17 2010, 08:35 AM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Feb 17 2010, 06:56 AM) *

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/ww...s3/usT2mMon.gif


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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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NYCSuburbs
post Feb 17 2010, 08:38 AM
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QUOTE(futureweatherman12 @ Feb 17 2010, 08:35 AM) *

That February outlook is already busting. It has me with much below average temperatures, when my temperatures so far are near average, with the temps this coming week being near-slightly above average.
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futureweatherman...
post Feb 17 2010, 08:58 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Feb 17 2010, 08:38 AM) *
That February outlook is already busting. It has me with much below average temperatures, when my temperatures so far are near average, with the temps this coming week being near-slightly above average.

Not really:


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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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High Tensions
post Feb 19 2010, 12:10 AM
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I found this from my local weather blog. Severe weather should really start ramping up soon here starting in early March now that the season is kicking in.
http://www.4029tv.com/weatherblog/index.html

Tornado “Fatality” Alley

February 18, 2010 -
Severe weather season is right around the corner, so it’s always a good idea to put together your severe weather plan! This is the time to talk about how to stay safe.




I found this information from the Little Rock National Weather Service website.

In 2007, Dr. Walker Ashley, a meteorologist at Northern Illinois University, identified an area in the mid-South we might term “Tornado Fatality Alley”.

Dr. Ashley discussed several reasons why tornado fatalities are greatest in this region:

•Manufactured/mobile home density – The southeastern United States has the highest percentage of manufactured/mobile homes compared with any other region east of the Continental Divide. (According to the Storm Prediction Center, from 1999 through 2008, 49% of the tornado fatalities in the nation occurred in manufactured/mobile homes.)
•Nighttime tornadoes – The southeastern United States has a higher likelihood of killer tornadoes during the overnight hours.
Note: This is due to a close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, and a feed of warmth/moisture to sustain storms long after the sun has set


•Forested areas – The South has many forested areas, leading to reduced visibility for the public and storm spotters
Note: In much of “Tornado Alley”, there are far fewer trees (more open spaces) and greater visibility.
•Complacency – The South lacks a well-defined “tornado season,” which can lead to complacency. In other words, tornadoes can occur just about any time during the year, and it is difficult to keep the public’s interest throughout the year.
Note: Since 1950, of the tornadoes rated F2/EF2 or higher, only 61% were spawned in Arkansas during the spring (March through May) and summer (June through August). In a “Tornado Alley” state such as Kansas, 90% of tornadoes were produced during these months (implying a shorter and more predictable “tornado season”).


•Early season storms – Storms that occur before the national peak in the severe storm season may catch people off guard during a tornado event.
Note: March, April, and May are the most likely months for tornadoes in Arkansas, with May being the peak month. However, since 1950, 16% of tornadoes rated F2/EF2 or higher occurred before March. As recently as 2008, there were killer tornadoes on January 8th and February 5th. It is important to mention there is often a peak period of severe weather in the fall (September through November). Such was the case in 2009, when 15 tornadoes occurred on October 29th. In the years 2001, 2002, 2004, and 2005, more tornadoes occurred in the fall than in the spring

The first pic below represents Fatalities. The second pic represents night time tornadoes.

This post has been edited by High Tensions: Feb 19 2010, 12:12 AM
Attached File(s)
Attached File  torfatals2010.gif ( 19.44K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  noctors2010.gif ( 15.07K ) Number of downloads: 0
 
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NYCSuburbs
post Feb 19 2010, 07:43 AM
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CPC is now getting into range. Here's their 8-14 day forecast, covering February 26 to March 4.

Temperatures:
Attached File  814temp_new_small.gif ( 63.86K ) Number of downloads: 3


Precipitation:
Attached File  814prcp_new_small.gif ( 57.03K ) Number of downloads: 2
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Removed_Member_Garrett_*
post Feb 20 2010, 10:28 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Feb 19 2010, 07:43 AM) *
CPC is now getting into range. Here's their 8-14 day forecast, covering February 26 to March 4.

Temperatures:
Attached File  814temp_new_small.gif ( 63.86K ) Number of downloads: 3


Precipitation:
Attached File  814prcp_new_small.gif ( 57.03K ) Number of downloads: 2


It seems there precipitation outlooks are off the majority of the time...tisk, tisk. There temperature map seems pretty accurate though.
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NYCSuburbs
post Feb 20 2010, 04:59 PM
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You can definitely tell that this CPC forecast was computer generated, they'd never have such a widespread area of below average temperatures laugh.gif

Attached File  610temp_new_small.gif ( 66.2K ) Number of downloads: 1
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WEATHERFREAK
post Feb 22 2010, 03:53 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Feb 20 2010, 04:59 PM) *
You can definitely tell that this CPC forecast was computer generated, they'd never have such a widespread area of below average temperatures laugh.gif

Attached File  610temp_new_small.gif ( 66.2K ) Number of downloads: 1


Well since they'll be a Polar Vortex phasing with a Miller A type system off the Mid-Atlantic coast(late this week). There's bound to be cold anomalies to follow.wink.gif


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Weatherjunkie
post Feb 22 2010, 04:49 PM
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I expect some of boom boom outbreaks in the latter half of March heading into April as the Nino recharges a bit.

This post has been edited by Weatherjunkie: Feb 22 2010, 04:49 PM


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hckyplayer8
post Feb 27 2010, 12:50 PM
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Here is my latest interpretation of the new European model long range output for North America that goes out through March...........

The mean pattern for the week of Mar 1-7

--Unseasonably mild across most of northern and northeastern Canada. I mean, well-above-normal temperatures. This could be a winter for the record books in the far north, but we will have to see.
--Temperatures slightly milder than normal over BC, precipitation below normal.
--Wet pattern over Oregon and California.
--Fairly dry over the Prairies, with temperatures slightly above normal.
--Below-normal temperatures over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S., and well below-normal over the Southeast.
--Temperatures close to normal over Ontario and Quebec, but snowfall below normal.
--Above-normal precipitation over the southeastern U.S. coast and then into coastal Atlantic Canada.
--Near-normal snowfall from the Appalachians into New England.
--Relatively mild over Newfoundland.


The week of Mar 8-14


Still significant blocking over northeastern Canada and Greenland.

--Temperatures and precipitation close to normal over BC
--Dry pattern prevails over the Prairies with near to slightly above-normal temperatures.
--Below-normal temperatures from the southwestern U.S. through the U.S. Plains and into the East. Coldest temperatures relative to normal over the South Central states.
--Above-normal precipitation from California through the central and southern Plains and into the Southeast and Middle Atlantic regions.
--Watch for severe weather along the Gulf coast into Florida!
--Well-above-normal temperatures over northeastern Canada.
--Temperatures close to normal over Ontario and southern Quebec, but snowfall still below normal.
--Temperatures and precipitation near normal over the northeastern U.S.
--Temperatures above normal over Atlantic Canada, precipitation below normal in the north and near normal in the south.

The week of Mar 15-21

Northern Canadian blocking persists, but not as strong.

--Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation over BC.
--Still fairly dry over the Prairies, with temperatures close to normal, except warmer than normal in northern areas.
--Well-above-normal temperatures across most of the northern half of Canada.
--Potentially stormy from the southern and central Plains to the Midwest and then East Coast. Storm track may get far enough north to impact Ontario.
--Below-normal temperatures across the U.S. Plains and Southwest. Near to slightly colder than normal farther to the east.
--Temperatures close to normal over eastern Canada with near-normal precipitation in the south and below-normal in the north.
--Pattern looks fairly mild compared to normal over Atlantic Canada with slightly drier conditions. This same pattern, however, would lead to a cloudy, damp, chilly period compared to normal later in the spring if it holds up.

Source


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SnowMan11
post Feb 28 2010, 07:44 PM
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If the Euro weeklies are right, this winter isn't even close to being over yet for the east.


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futureweatherman...
post Feb 28 2010, 07:54 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Feb 28 2010, 07:44 PM) *
If the Euro weeklies are right, this winter isn't even close to being over yet for the east.

If the euro is right... it is:


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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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steve04074
post Mar 2 2010, 07:22 PM
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Is it EVER going to go back to normal temps or below here in New England?

We have been running-- no joke-- 5,10, 15F above normal-- especially for overnight lows-- for almost 7 weeks now.


Today's CPC 6-10 and 8-14 show Maine DRAMATICALLY above normal for the foreseeable future....


My understanding is that it's a combination of 2 things:
(1) unbelievably persistent polar vortex to our north, bringing in mild maritime air in, even with winds from the W, NW or N
(2) a complete-- and I mean complete-- absence of any cold Arctic air in New England in approx. 7 weeks.

It's (2) that I don't understand why it's happening.

Where is the cold air? Does it just not exist up toward the pole this year? Is it going somewhere else?

This post has been edited by steve04074: Mar 2 2010, 08:28 PM
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Niyologist
post Mar 2 2010, 07:36 PM
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QUOTE(futureweatherman12 @ Feb 28 2010, 07:54 PM) *
If the euro is right... it is:


The one on the left is an excellent Omega Block. smile.gif


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hckyplayer8
post Mar 3 2010, 08:19 PM
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Euro Weeklies

Overall, it looks like the high latitude blocking pattern which has persisted much of this winter across North America will continue through midmonth then weaken, followed by a potential significant change in the pattern the last week of the month.

The mean pattern for the week of March 8-14

--Unsettled across western and southern Alaska.

--Temperatures still well above normal across northern Canada.

--Temperatures and precipitation close to average over BC and the Pacific Northwest.

--Chilly and wetter than normal over the southwest United States.

--Colder and stormier than normal over the southern and central U.S. Plains.

--Below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation over the Southeast.

--Still fairly dry over the Prairies with temperatures slightly warmer than normal.

--Temperatures and precipitation near normal from the Midwest to the northeastern United States.

--Slightly drier with near-normal temperatures from southern Ontario through southern Quebec and the Maritimes.

--Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation from central and northern Ontario through northern Quebec and into Labrador.

--Above-normal temperatures and precipitation over Newfoundland.

The week of March 15-21

--Rather mild over Alaska and the Yukon Territory compared to normal.

--Warmer than normal over northern Canada, but not as extreme as it has been relative to normal.

--Temperatures and precipitation close to normal over BC.

--Near-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation over the Pacific Northwest.

--Cooler and wetter than normal over the Southwest.

--Dry pattern holds across most of the Prairies with slightly above-normal temperatures.

--Well below-normal temperatures over the southern U.S. Plains.

--Above-normal precipitation across the central and southern Plains with potential snow events in the central Plains.

--Above-normal precipitation across the Ohio Valley and Southeast.

--Temperatures and precipitation close to normal from southeastern Manitoba through the Great Lakes and into southern Ontario and the Middle Atlantic region.

--Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation from northern Ontario through most of Atlantic Canada.

--A drier pattern over New England.

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The week of March 22-28

Possible return of the Colorado lows that track up toward the Great Lakes as the northern blocking breaks down.

--A cool, but drier pattern along the U.S. West Coast.

--Colder and stormier than normal from the central and southern Rockies (snowstorms?) then into the Plains.

--Above-normal precipitation and near-normal temperatures from the Midwest, northwestern Ontario into central, southwestern and eastern Ontario.

--Big warmup possible over the Southeast and Middle Atlantic region.

--Above-normal precipitation over southern Quebec and the Northeast with near-normal temperatures.

--Temperatures above normal over Atlantic Canada with below-normal precipitation.

--Temperatures getting back to normal over northern Canada.

----------------

Source


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SnowMan11
post Mar 5 2010, 01:30 PM
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The Euro weeklies came in really cold throughout March.


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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 5 2010, 01:52 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 5 2010, 01:30 PM) *
The Euro weeklies came in really cold throughout March.

That is of course for mid-late March, right? Because until at least next weekend, there is no sign of any cold for the Mid Atlantic/southern Northeast.
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