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> Parry Sound, June 12-13th, Stormy?
puttin
post Jun 8 2010, 08:04 AM
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Can anyone help me with the forecast for this coming weekend for Parry Sound? I don't know how to e-mail Brett anymore and we are planning a birthday party for my 11 year old son and his friends at the cottage. Don't want it to be a wash out and I think it's supposed to be humid. Are there any systems in the making? Any help would be greatfully appreciated!

Thanks, Cathy wink.gif
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Torontoweather
post Jun 8 2010, 08:57 AM
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QUOTE(puttin @ Jun 8 2010, 09:04 AM) *
Can anyone help me with the forecast for this coming weekend for Parry Sound? I don't know how to e-mail Brett anymore and we are planning a birthday party for my 11 year old son and his friends at the cottage. Don't want it to be a wash out and I think it's supposed to be humid. Are there any systems in the making? Any help would be greatfully appreciated!

Thanks, Cathy wink.gif


hey Cathy, unfortunately it looks like as of right now, both days will feature a good chance for rain and possibly t-storms.


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puttin
post Jun 8 2010, 09:08 AM
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QUOTE(puttin @ Jun 8 2010, 09:04 AM) *
Can anyone help me with the forecast for this coming weekend for Parry Sound? I don't know how to e-mail Brett anymore and we are planning a birthday party for my 11 year old son and his friends at the cottage. Don't want it to be a wash out and I think it's supposed to be humid. Are there any systems in the making? Any help would be greatfully appreciated!

Thanks, Cathy wink.gif


Is it system related or instability in the atmosphere due to humidity. I heard it is supposed to be a humid weekend. Thanks, I know it's still early on in the week....
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Torontoweather
post Jun 8 2010, 10:23 AM
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QUOTE(puttin @ Jun 8 2010, 10:08 AM) *
Is it system related or instability in the atmosphere due to humidity. I heard it is supposed to be a humid weekend. Thanks, I know it's still early on in the week....


Up in Parry Sound it will be mostly system related, but around Toronto and further SW there may be some convective afternoon-evening t-storms due to humidity and CAPE values, and it is possible that you could get that up there too, but as of now it doesn't look like the moist humid air that will likely invade further south Ontario will make a big impact up there, but I want to wait until the NAM model gets more into range before saying too much as the GFS sometimes has a cold bias. wink.gif


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puttin
post Jun 8 2010, 12:19 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Jun 8 2010, 11:23 AM) *
Up in Parry Sound it will be mostly system related, but around Toronto and further SW there may be some convective afternoon-evening t-storms due to humidity and CAPE values, and it is possible that you could get that up there too, but as of now it doesn't look like the moist humid air that will likely invade further south Ontario will make a big impact up there, but I want to wait until the NAM model gets more into range before saying too much as the GFS sometimes has a cold bias. wink.gif


Thanks, I appreciate your input. I could live with rain if it was humid.... I'll keep checking back.
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puttin
post Jun 10 2010, 10:42 AM
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QUOTE(puttin @ Jun 8 2010, 01:19 PM) *
Thanks, I appreciate your input. I could live with rain if it was humid.... I'll keep checking back.



Does anyone have any further information? The weekend is getting close... thanks,
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CrazyC83
post Jun 10 2010, 07:26 PM
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It all depends on the position of the warm front. Right now models don't seem to have it pinpointed. The heaviest rain will likely be right along it, since it could easily pick up training showers and thunderstorms as it stalls out. My best guess is that the heaviest rain will be just north of there (along Highway 17 from Sault Ste. Marie to Ottawa) which would put Parry Sound solidly inside the warm sector and that would likely mean scattered convective storms. but the GFS seems to want to keep the heavy rain just south of there (through the GTA) and Parry Sound in the cool sector. But whoever gets the stalled front will likely see very heavy rain - at least 50 mm is likely, locally 100 or more (much more?) over the weekend.

This post has been edited by CrazyC83: Jun 10 2010, 07:28 PM
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