 Invest 94L, Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential: Low - 10% |
AccuWeather.com Forums > Weather Forums > Current Weather - United States > Current Tropical Season Weather  |
  Jun 25 2010, 09:51 AM
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#1
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 Rank: Tornado  Group: Member Posts: 242 Joined: 19-June 10 From: Clear lake Shores, TX Member No.: 23,001  |
new Area with a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
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| Removed_Member_Snowlover123_* |
Jun 25 2010, 10:55 AM
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#2
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Guests |
Later this morning, Invest 94L, the 4th Invest of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season formed, and computer models show it possibly nearing Bermuda.
 This would make sense, as a trough looks to scoop it up, and shove it to the NE, away from The Eastern Seaboard.  Satelite images show a large area of disorganized cloudiness, and thunderstorms. I predict that 94L will become our B named system, Bonnie, as 93L will beat it to Alex, but we'll see how the events unfold, as the water temperatures continue to warm... -Snowlover123 This post has been edited by Snowlover123: Jun 25 2010, 10:56 AM |
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Jun 25 2010, 10:56 AM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 529 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Windsor Locks Ct. Member No.: 12,104 |
Weather Underground just pronounced this Invest 94L.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical...1094_model.html |
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Jun 25 2010, 10:59 AM
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 529 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Windsor Locks Ct. Member No.: 12,104 |
First, it's got to get out of that 20-30kts of shear. But I do believe this will be at least a depression, but not until Sunday at least.
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 Jun 25 2010, 11:15 AM
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,136 Joined: 20-May 10 Member No.: 22,816 |
QUOTE(hurricanehunter @ Jun 25 2010, 11:59 AM)  First, it's got to get out of that 20-30kts of shear. But I do believe this will be at least a depression, but not until Sunday at least. Some of the models were indicating yesterday that a cold front will stall of the SE coast next week in the warm gulf stream waters, and a tropical low could spin up. Are some of the models still indicating that today? Reply appreciated. Thanks. |
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Jun 25 2010, 11:40 AM
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#6
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 521 Joined: 23-July 09 From: mississauga ontario Member No.: 18,714 |
QUOTE(east coast storm @ Jun 25 2010, 12:15 PM) Some of the models were indicating yesterday that a cold front will stall of the SE coast next week in the warm gulf stream waters, and a tropical low could spin up. Are some of the models still indicating that today? Reply appreciated. Thanks. Some of them still are 
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| Removed_Member_sub900_* |
Jun 25 2010, 11:42 AM
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#7
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QUOTE(wx140 @ Jun 25 2010, 12:40 PM) Some of them still are 
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Jun 25 2010, 11:48 AM
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#8
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,136 Joined: 20-May 10 Member No.: 22,816 |
QUOTE(wx140 @ Jun 25 2010, 12:40 PM) Some of them still are Next week could be interesting. Thanks again. |
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Jun 25 2010, 01:06 PM
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#9
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 17,815 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
Invest 94L lemon candy drop upgraded to a juicer 20%.
 QUOTE 2. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 2 closeup -------------------- |
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Jun 25 2010, 04:37 PM
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#10
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,604 Joined: 24-January 09 From: Harwich, MA Member No.: 17,084 |
This system looks like it is organizing fairly quickly right now. Great spin to the overall pattern of the storm. This looks interesting. Although, wind shear is very strong over the system now.
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Jun 26 2010, 12:58 AM
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#11
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,560 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 |
Still at 20%
QUOTE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... 20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN -------------------- # of T-Storm Watches:2
# of Tornado Watches: # of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Warnings: |
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Jun 26 2010, 01:30 AM
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#12
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,689 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Mount Vernon, NY Member No.: 12,006 |
As of 20:15 Z
Minimum Surface Pressure: 1003.7 mB Maximum Surface Wind: 45 mph 
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| Removed_Member_Snowlover123_* |
Jun 26 2010, 11:03 AM
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#13
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Jun 26 2010, 02:30 AM) As of 20:15 Z Minimum Surface Pressure: 1003.7 mB Maximum Surface Wind: 45 mph For 94L or Alex? |
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Jun 26 2010, 11:16 AM
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,136 Joined: 20-May 10 Member No.: 22,816 |
QUOTE(Snowlover123 @ Jun 26 2010, 12:03 PM) For 94L or Alex? That info was for Alex. The visible loop has a very good circulation. Plus a few of the models are still showing a low spinning up in the warm waters off the Carolinas next week. Could be interesting next week. |
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Jun 26 2010, 12:54 PM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,689 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Mount Vernon, NY Member No.: 12,006 |
QUOTE(east coast storm @ Jun 26 2010, 12:16 PM) That info was for Alex. The visible loop has a very good circulation. Plus a few of the models are still showing a low spinning up in the warm waters off the Carolinas next week. Could be interesting next week. No, it was for 94L. Although, those are Maximum Surface Winds. So that'll probably mean Wind Gust. This post has been edited by Niyologist: Jun 26 2010, 12:56 PM -------------------- CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: Meelec M6(MSRP $49.99), VSonic GR06 (MSRP $49.99), Meelec CC51(MSRP $80), Beyerdynamic DTX 910 (MSRP $89.99), Future Sonics Atrio X (MSRP $99.99),Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)
SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E6 Amp w/FilmPro 16GB MicroSD Card Class 10 To learn more about Sound Frequency: http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors) http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20 |
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Jun 26 2010, 02:50 PM
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,136 Joined: 20-May 10 Member No.: 22,816 |
QUOTE(Niyologist @ Jun 26 2010, 01:54 PM) No, it was for 94L. Although, those are Maximum Surface Winds. So that'll probably mean Wind Gust. Sorry about that 94L is looking good. |
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Jun 26 2010, 02:54 PM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,264 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
94L is down to 10 percent as of 2 PM.
 QUOTE 1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDSNORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AREASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVELTROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AND FURTHERDEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVESTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOWCHANCE...10PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS. Source Wunderground no longer shows this as an invest in their website. This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Jun 26 2010, 02:55 PM -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Jun 26 2010, 03:02 PM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,136 Joined: 20-May 10 Member No.: 22,816 |
QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jun 26 2010, 03:54 PM) 94L is down to 10 percent as of 2 PM. Source Wunderground no longer shows this as an invest in their website. I take that back, 94L is not looking good. It was earlier. |
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Jun 26 2010, 03:23 PM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 17,815 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
The time to develop is fading away.
Soon it will be absorbed by the trough split moving by the central Atlantic. -------------------- |
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Jun 27 2010, 12:30 AM
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#20
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 572 Joined: 22-March 10 Member No.: 22,376 |
Someone posted the 0z GFS 150 hours showing Alex in GOM and possibly Bonnie off of the east coast? Far out but always cool to look at
 GFS picture from 0z GFS 150 hrs |
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