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> Invest 94L, Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential: Low - 10%
weather-major94
post Jun 25 2010, 09:51 AM
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new Area with a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
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Removed_Member_Snowlover123_*
post Jun 25 2010, 10:55 AM
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Later this morning, Invest 94L, the 4th Invest of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season formed, and computer models show it possibly nearing Bermuda.



This would make sense, as a trough looks to scoop it up, and shove it to the NE, away from The Eastern Seaboard.



Satelite images show a large area of disorganized cloudiness, and thunderstorms.

I predict that 94L will become our B named system, Bonnie, as 93L will beat it to Alex, but we'll see how the events unfold, as the water temperatures continue to warm...

-Snowlover123

This post has been edited by Snowlover123: Jun 25 2010, 10:56 AM
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hurricanehunter
post Jun 25 2010, 10:56 AM
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Weather Underground just pronounced this Invest 94L.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical...1094_model.html
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hurricanehunter
post Jun 25 2010, 10:59 AM
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First, it's got to get out of that 20-30kts of shear. But I do believe this will be at least a depression, but not until Sunday at least.
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east coast storm
post Jun 25 2010, 11:15 AM
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QUOTE(hurricanehunter @ Jun 25 2010, 11:59 AM) *
First, it's got to get out of that 20-30kts of shear. But I do believe this will be at least a depression, but not until Sunday at least.

Some of the models were indicating yesterday that a cold front will
stall of the SE coast next week in the warm gulf stream waters, and a
tropical low could spin up. Are some of the models still indicating that today?
Reply appreciated. Thanks.
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wx140
post Jun 25 2010, 11:40 AM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ Jun 25 2010, 12:15 PM) *
Some of the models were indicating yesterday that a cold front will
stall of the SE coast next week in the warm gulf stream waters, and a
tropical low could spin up. Are some of the models still indicating that today?
Reply appreciated. Thanks.

Some of them still are rolleyes.gif
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Removed_Member_sub900_*
post Jun 25 2010, 11:42 AM
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QUOTE(wx140 @ Jun 25 2010, 12:40 PM) *
Some of them still are rolleyes.gif

laugh.gif
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east coast storm
post Jun 25 2010, 11:48 AM
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QUOTE(wx140 @ Jun 25 2010, 12:40 PM) *
Some of them still are rolleyes.gif

Next week could be interesting. Thanks again.
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Phased Vort
post Jun 25 2010, 01:06 PM
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Invest 94L lemon candy drop upgraded to a juicer 20%.

Attached Image

QUOTE
2. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 2 closeup


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.



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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Jun 25 2010, 04:37 PM
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This system looks like it is organizing fairly quickly right now. Great spin to the overall pattern of the storm. This looks interesting. Although, wind shear is very strong over the system now.
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snowlover2
post Jun 26 2010, 12:58 AM
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Still at 20%

QUOTE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE
CITY BELIZE.

A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACTING WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:6

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:5

# of Tornado Warnings:0
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Niyologist
post Jun 26 2010, 01:30 AM
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As of 20:15 Z

Minimum Surface Pressure: 1003.7 mB

Maximum Surface Wind: 45 mph

wink.gif


--------------------
CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: VSonic GR06 (MSRP $59.99), MEElec M-DUO (MSRP $79.99), Beyerdynamic DTX-910 (MSRP $79.99), Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)

SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E11 Headphone Amplifier w/C3 32GB MicroSD Card Class 6

To learn more about Sound Frequency:
http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm

If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors)
http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20


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Removed_Member_Snowlover123_*
post Jun 26 2010, 11:03 AM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Jun 26 2010, 02:30 AM) *
As of 20:15 Z

Minimum Surface Pressure: 1003.7 mB

Maximum Surface Wind: 45 mph

wink.gif


For 94L or Alex?
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east coast storm
post Jun 26 2010, 11:16 AM
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QUOTE(Snowlover123 @ Jun 26 2010, 12:03 PM) *
For 94L or Alex?

That info was for Alex. The visible loop has a very good circulation. Plus a few of the models
are still showing a low spinning up in the warm waters off the Carolinas next week.
Could be interesting next week.
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Niyologist
post Jun 26 2010, 12:54 PM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ Jun 26 2010, 12:16 PM) *
That info was for Alex. The visible loop has a very good circulation. Plus a few of the models
are still showing a low spinning up in the warm waters off the Carolinas next week.
Could be interesting next week.


No, it was for 94L.

Although, those are Maximum Surface Winds. So that'll probably mean Wind Gust.

This post has been edited by Niyologist: Jun 26 2010, 12:56 PM


--------------------
CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: VSonic GR06 (MSRP $59.99), MEElec M-DUO (MSRP $79.99), Beyerdynamic DTX-910 (MSRP $79.99), Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)

SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E11 Headphone Amplifier w/C3 32GB MicroSD Card Class 6

To learn more about Sound Frequency:
http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm

If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors)
http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20


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east coast storm
post Jun 26 2010, 02:50 PM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Jun 26 2010, 01:54 PM) *
No, it was for 94L.

Although, those are Maximum Surface Winds. So that'll probably mean Wind Gust.

Sorry about that 94L is looking good.
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NYCSuburbs
post Jun 26 2010, 02:54 PM
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94L is down to 10 percent as of 2 PM.

Attached Image

QUOTE
1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDSNORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AREASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVELTROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AND FURTHERDEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVESTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOWCHANCE...10PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.


Source

Wunderground no longer shows this as an invest in their website.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Jun 26 2010, 02:55 PM
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east coast storm
post Jun 26 2010, 03:02 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jun 26 2010, 03:54 PM) *
94L is down to 10 percent as of 2 PM.

Attached Image
Source

Wunderground no longer shows this as an invest in their website.

I take that back, 94L is not looking good. It was earlier.
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Phased Vort
post Jun 26 2010, 03:23 PM
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The time to develop is fading away.

Soon it will be absorbed by the trough split moving by the central Atlantic.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.



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Astella2
post Jun 27 2010, 12:30 AM
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Someone posted the 0z GFS 150 hours showing Alex in GOM and possibly Bonnie off of the east coast? Far out but always cool to look at smile.gif
GFS picture from 0z GFS 150 hrs
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