Long-Range: Autumn 2010 (SON) Outlook Thread, Autumn, Fall, ENSO, Temperature, Precipitation, Patterns, Weather Options

[Removed_Member_Garrett_*]

Here are some vague maps (that will become more detailed through the next 2 months) of what I think Autumn 2010 will be like across the nation:

Temperatures:


Precipitation:

[123]

Here are some vague maps (that will become more detailed through the next 2 months) of what I think Autumn 2010 will be like across the nation:

Temperatures:


Precipitation:

i like your forecast

[TheMaineMan]

I hope that it verifies, personally.

[Torontoweather]

Here are some vague maps (that will become more detailed through the next 2 months) of what I think Autumn 2010 will be like across the nation:

Temperatures:


Precipitation:

A few comments and questions. First; very nice maps and good work for producing an autumn forecast. Second, the in south and SE United states I would likely add that there is a decent chance for above normal precipitation in the case of tropical storms, which most people/met offices and pro mets are expecting especially in September and possibly into October(just a suggestion). In terms of the quantity of these maps, I think they are pretty decent, however I think that the below normal temperatures shouldn't be that far south-west along with the above normal precipitation area as well, but I have not done enough research yet(although still doing some) on the effects of a potential weak La Nina on the autumn across North America. One last thing; Canada experiences weather and climate as well! (JJKS, I know you may not know too much about the climate across Canada). Anyway, decent preliminary forecast IMHO!

[Beck]

Here are some vague maps (that will become more detailed through the next 2 months) of what I think Autumn 2010 will be like across the nation:

Temperatures:


Precipitation:

Suprsingly accurate Autumn forecast, seeing how no one ever seems to get it right for us in SoCal.
I agree with near-normal temps, however I would move that border further north to cover the whole southern third of California rather than just San Diego & Imperial Counties near the US/Mexico Border.

I totally agree with a high chance of above-normal precip for SoCal, as we do get more early-season/Autumn storms to kick off our rainy season during La Nina falls.

[BtownWxWatcher]

Here are some vague maps (that will become more detailed through the next 2 months) of what I think Autumn 2010 will be like across the nation:

Temperatures:


Precipitation:

I hope it verifies, I think this winter may start early, I think we get at least one good month of winter between November and March.

[Removed_Member_Garrett_*]

I hope it verifies, I think this winter may start early, I think we get at least one good month of winter between November and March.

If you are correct in that statement, then I hope it's December because I love Yuletide SNOWS!!!

[snowguy716]

I think most of the lower 48 will be warmer than normal for Sept-Oct. The northwestern quarter of the nation has the best chance to see cooler temperatures, though it likely will only be cool along the immediate west coast.

Precipitation will be above normal in the northwest, northern plains, and along the east and Gulf coast regions thanks largely in part to increased tropical activity. The desert southwest, southern and central plains, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and southern Great Lakes will be drier than average.

This is simply going off of past La Niñas.

[WEATHERFREAK]

A La Nina Mokiki(central/west basin)could actually bring an early Fall to the Southeast.

This post has been edited by WEATHERFREAK: Jul 28 2010, 07:22 PM

[Removed_Member_Garrett_*]

A La Nina Mokiki(central/west basin)could actually bring an early Fall to the Southeast.

You mean modoki, but I knew what you meant. Modoki La Nina's are reactionary meaning they typically do not get as strong as a classic la Nina would. Therefore Fall can come early for the SE and Mid-Atl and they can squeeze in at least 2 mos. of winter (November-December) before things start becoming more La nina like. This is also what I believe will happen in the areas.

[Noreastericane]

If we can get an arctic blast and a tropical storm at the same time in November and maybe even October, we could get a SNOWICANE. And I don't mean one of Henry Margusity's fake snowicanes, I mean a true, dictionary-definition snowicane. It's been awhile since I've been buried beneath a foot of snow in November (where did the 1990s go?)

I've been thinking about this same thing. Many are forecasting a very active hurricane season, particularly towards later in the season. Also, many are forecasting a cool autumn and early start to winter where I'm at. JB's winter forecast, for instance, seems to indicate we'd actually have a better shot at snow in Nov/Dec than in Jan. Remember "Nor'Ida" last year? Something similar to that, with a more northern track and an early blast of arctic air. Significant snowfall in Baltimore has happened in November before, but its a once-in-a-lifetime event. I'd trade away the rest of the winter just to see a big November storm here! Would make for some pretty pictures.

[Removed_Member_Ajdos_*]

I dont want summer to end, way to short, and not to hot... sorry call me crazy but this summer for me was alright thus far... I like the hot and humid conditions,... Cant believe pretty soon ill have to close the doors and spend 6 months of my life inside the house because of the cold.. thats sad.. Im moving down south ...

[NYCSuburbs]

While we're still in August, I'm planning on posting my fall outlook later this month for the NE and Mid Atlantic. At this time, I'm expecting above average temperatures and near average precipitation, starting out below average and becoming above average by the end of the fall.

JB also seems to support the idea of persistent heat, expecting another potential heat wave for the Mid Atlantic/NE for late August/early September, with an above average September. As much as I already want this summer's heat to end, it looks like the generally above average temperatures may be here to stay through the fall months.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/stor...-may-be-hot.asp

[Hertz]

While we're still in August, I'm planning on posting my fall outlook later this month for the NE and Mid Atlantic. At this time, I'm expecting above average temperatures and near average precipitation, starting out below average and becoming above average by the end of the fall.

JB also seems to support the idea of persistent heat, expecting another potential heat wave for the Mid Atlantic/NE for late August/early September, with an above average September. As much as I already want this summer's heat to end, it looks like the generally above average temperatures may be here to stay through the fall months.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/stor...-may-be-hot.asp

NYCSuburbs: I have limited site access and would be interested in some up front details if you don't mind (I also sent a PM if you'd prefer to respond that way). I live in Cleveland, OH and am looking for when things will cool off. PM has more details.

This post has been edited by Hertz: Aug 6 2010, 01:47 PM

[missmarisa]

Already seeing some leaves changing here in NW NJ.....two of my maple trees have gold/orange leaves at the top, as well as the eastern side of my dogwood tree.

We got leaf cover early this year, so it stands to reason that, combined with the dry conditions, the leaves would start to change relatively early as well.

The owner of a local farm stand told me that most of her crops have been harvesting 2-3 weeks early...I have never canned tomatoes this early (August 3 this year). She's even started picking some apples that typically aren't ready until the end of August.

Please note: I am not saying that fall (a.k.a. cooler temps) will come early....only stating that I believe the foliage is starting early due to current warm temps and dry conditions. As I said above....the leaves popped early this spring....what blooms early will inevitably wither early, IMHO.

[TheMaineMan]

I saw JB's map... I don't see any good evidence that my region will be above-average during that time frame.

[stuffradio]

Anyone have an idea of what the beginning of September could be like for the PNW? Storms here don't usually start until Octoberish. I just want the beginning of September to still be warm and then slowly taper into Fall weather.

[TheMaineMan]

We've only had one "rainy day" all summer... we better get some in August or autumn or else we'll start seeing some water issues.

Almost all of my rain has come from t-storms, and we haven't had many of those either.

[stuffradio]

We've only had one "rainy day" all summer... we better get some in August or autumn or else we'll start seeing some water issues.

Almost all of my rain has come from t-storms, and we haven't had many of those either.

It's raining today at my house

I've been seeing smoke all week all over the place from all the Forest Fires in the middle and upper portion of the province. This rain is washing it away

[NYCSuburbs]

What a boring weather pattern, it's still hot and dry (as usual), with no severe thunderstorms in the near future. I can't wait for fall already...