Long-Range: Autumn 2010 (SON) Outlook Thread, Autumn, Fall, ENSO, Temperature, Precipitation, Patterns, Weather Options

[ArmonkStorm]

The leaves have started changing on one of my trees, odd

[NYCSuburbs]

The leaves have started changing on one of my trees, odd

Maybe it's due to the dry conditions? If anything, it has been nowhere near cold lately.

[Removed_Member_Garrett_*]

Maybe it's due to the dry conditions? If anything, it has been nowhere near cold lately.

Temps can but do not usually play a major role in color change. It is the decreasing amount of sunlight that sends the leaves into a rage of colour heading into Autumn. One can also tell if its because of dryness because the leaves will be brittle and very burnt looking.

[ArmonkStorm]

Maybe it's due to the dry conditions? If anything, it has been nowhere near cold lately.

Yeah possibly, but there are 1 or 2 trees that are definitely changing colors.

[snowguy716]

Some trees change color early every year. This is especially true of some sugar maples. It's just in their genes, so to say.

A lot of poplars also turn and drop leaves early if they have water stress.

The best fall color year I can remember now was in 2004. We had an exceptionally cool summer that year that was a bit drier than average so nothing got sopping wet. Then in September, it warmed up nicely and we got some rain... but towards later September into October it was very pleasant with frosty nights and warm afternoons.

The red oaks and turned a beautiful burgundy purple.. you could almost see blue shining through. The maples were all blaze orange and deep red and the aspen and tamarack were blaze gold against the green evergreens.. it was amazing.

In contrast to last fall.. we had a very cool, dry summer. Then in September it got very warm with almost no frost and little rain.. so the trees began to change but not very well because of the dryness and then in early October it got really cold and it snowed for about 2 weeks and all the leaves just froze and fell off hte trees. It was the worst fall color season of my lifetime.

[Niyologist]

From what I am hearing, there are some leaves changing already. There are 3 factors of why this is happening:

1. Dry Conditions

2. Decreasing Amount of Sunlight

3. Very Early Spring

[BtownWxWatcher]

From what I am hearing, there are some leaves changing already. There are 3 factors of why this is happening:

1. Dry Conditions

2. Decreasing Amount of Sunlight

3. Very Early Spring

Not sure if an Early Spring has to do with it, Im guessing your mentioning last spring.

[Niyologist]

Not sure if an Early Spring has to do with it, Im guessing your mentioning last spring.

The Early Spring-Like Temperatures brought in the leaves and it'll leave out just as fast.

[Niyologist]

Not sure if an Early Spring has to do with it, Im guessing your mentioning last spring.

The Early Spring-Like Temperatures brought in the leaves and it'll leave out just as fast.

[ArmonkStorm]

From what I am hearing, there are some leaves changing already. There are 3 factors of why this is happening:

1. Dry Conditions

2. Decreasing Amount of Sunlight

3. Very Early Spring

I thinks its because of reason 1 and 2

Although spring came early, the trees here didnt regain there leaves untill April which is normal for the area.

I'd say about 30% of the trees in my yard are turning yellow/orange. Cant remember the last time this happened in AUGUST!!!

[TheMaineMan]

I'm seeing some color, but nothing out of the ordinary. A couple of trees always turn in mid-August, and the rest are looking burnt and brittle because of the dry conditions.

It's getting cooler than normal at night... low 50s and upper 40s, but I don't think that would affect color at this point. Foliage peaks around early-mid October when we start getting frosts/light freezes almost every night.

[NYCSuburbs]

I thinks its because of reason 1 and 2

Although spring came early, the trees here didnt regain there leaves untill April which is normal for the area.

I'd say about 30% of the trees in my yard are turning yellow/orange. Cant remember the last time this happened in AUGUST!!!

It did for me last year. By late August, some small trees and bushes already had yellow and a few red leaves. By mid September, a few trees in my garden were already dropping leaves.

This time though, it's probably because of the drought. I saw a lot of trees here with brown leaves, and just looking at the leaves, it's easy to tell that it's because of the drought.

[stuffradio]

Last year I don't think I really saw anything until early November (because of El Nino). If I remember correctly in the La Nina of '08-'09... we saw it late September early October.

There ARE leaves falling off the trees, but nothing really changing colour yet. I think they're mostly just falling off from the heat and lack of rain this summer.

[Mike W IN herkim...]

Local Mets calling for a warm start to fall

La Nina is developing quite well in the Pacific. La Nina is what happens when trade winds weaken in the Pacific Ocean. This brings cooler ocean temperatures to the Eastern Pacific. With the combination of warm temperatures in the Atlantic and cooler temperatures in the Pacific, there's a higher probability that the northeast will stay warm into the fall. The predominant jet stream favors higher heights and more ridging for the northeast in this kind of pattern. That would bring warmer than normal temperatures and higher than normal levels of humidity for the remainder of the month through at least early fall. As always, it will be the individual storms that ultimately dictate the weather on a daily basis. We will still see bursts of cool, dry weather, but perhaps not as frequently heading into the early fall.

http://www.wktv.com/weather/blogs

[copper]

I look forward to fall like my kids look forward to Christmas. This summer has been one of the hottest summers I can recall for some time here in SW Missouri. Save for a couple of days, we have had temps well up into the upper 90's since the first of July. It seems like there has been an area of high pressure parked right over the the top of Missouri all summer long that just won't go away and rain has been very scarce. I'm crossing my fingers and toes for a cool fall and cold, snowy winter.

[copper]

You mean modoki, but I knew what you meant. Modoki La Nina's are reactionary meaning they typically do not get as strong as a classic la Nina would. Therefore Fall can come early for the SE and Mid-Atl and they can squeeze in at least 2 mos. of winter (November-December) before things start becoming more La nina like. This is also what I believe will happen in the areas.

I like your winter count down. After the hotter than hail's kitchen summer we've had, I'm ready for fall and winter to get here.

This post has been edited by copper: Aug 14 2010, 08:29 PM

[NYCSuburbs]

Local Mets calling for a warm start to fall



http://www.wktv.com/weather/blogs

I agree with your local mets. We still have a warm pattern locked in, and despite it occasionly shifting from the Mid Atlantic/NE to where it is now, the central US, it's still there. In addition, I looked at several falls which had a La Nina, with an El Nino in the previous winter, which I noticed that they also had a warm and dry summer, and they also supported my thoughts for this fall, with above average temperatures for the fall, and precipitation starting out below average and becoming more above average towards November.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Aug 14 2010, 08:46 PM

[NorEaster07]

I agree with your local mets. We still have a warm pattern locked in, and despite it occasionly shifting from the Mid Atlantic/NE to where it is now, the central US, it's still there. In addition, I looked at several falls which had a La Nina, with an El Nino in the previous winter, which I noticed that they also had a warm and dry summer, and they also supported my thoughts for this fall, with above average temperatures for the fall, and precipitation starting out below average and becoming more above average towards November.

Thank You...kinda makes sense although I did read very cool fall practically jumping into winter in OCtober without much fall weather....but I guess that was wishfull thinking too.. I believe we're locked into this warm pattern till Beginning October.

[snowguy716]

These are the basic analogs for this autumn with nearly all of the moderate-strong La Niņas since 1950 except 1964, 1975, 1988, and 1999. I doubled up on the stronger analogs of 1950, 1955, and 2007 and added active hurricane seasons 1933, 1995, and 2005.

Even without the active hurricane seasons, the pattern looks nearly identical... warm for most of the U.S., especially the Ohio Valley with cool only along the west coast and normal temps into the inland PNW.



Here is the precip maps for such years:


Keep in mind I'm using a standardized anomaly for the precipitation so it is normalized for all locales. That is, if your area is closer to 1 or -1 that means you will have more significantly above or below precipitation while areas near 0 will be near average.

Since precipitation varies so much over the continental U.S. and variability from year to year is also variable in itself (with some areas getting pretty consistent fall rainfall from year to year while droughts and floods are common in other areas), I use the standardized anomaly.

The chances of any given year for any given location having a precipitation anomaly between -1 and +1 standard deviation is roughly 67%. Between -2 and +2 is roughly 96%.

This is much more accurate because it gives you a general idea of how much drier or wetter it will be where you live. In some areas where precipitation is less than, say, 1 or 2 inches for September and October.. having a map that gives departures from normal in 1 inch increments wouldn't do much good. It would look like average on the map for those areas while they might actually only get 50% of normal rainfall.

Most of you probably already know this

[NYCSuburbs]

These are the basic analogs for this autumn with nearly all of the moderate-strong La Niņas since 1950 except 1964, 1975, 1988, and 1999. I doubled up on the stronger analogs of 1950, 1955, and 2007 and added active hurricane seasons 1933, 1995, and 2005.

Even without the active hurricane seasons, the pattern looks nearly identical... warm for most of the U.S., especially the Ohio Valley with cool only along the west coast and normal temps into the inland PNW.



Here is the precip maps for such years:


Keep in mind I'm using a standardized anomaly for the precipitation so it is normalized for all locales. That is, if your area is closer to 1 or -1 that means you will have more significantly above or below precipitation while areas near 0 will be near average.

Since precipitation varies so much over the continental U.S. and variability from year to year is also variable in itself (with some areas getting pretty consistent fall rainfall from year to year while droughts and floods are common in other areas), I use the standardized anomaly.

The chances of any given year for any given location having a precipitation anomaly between -1 and +1 standard deviation is roughly 67%. Between -2 and +2 is roughly 96%.

This is much more accurate because it gives you a general idea of how much drier or wetter it will be where you live. In some areas where precipitation is less than, say, 1 or 2 inches for September and October.. having a map that gives departures from normal in 1 inch increments wouldn't do much good. It would look like average on the map for those areas while they might actually only get 50% of normal rainfall.

Most of you probably already know this

I also looked at similar analogs for this fall, which I also based my warm fall prediction on, and from what I looked at for the temperatures, it looks like a large part of the US could end up with above average temperatures this fall. What I disagree on with the analog mean is the precipitation, which also looking at the same analogs for the summer, were not as dry as this summer is. No two years are a perfect match, and if my thinking works out, this could also be a case, as IMO the below average precipitation and drought should continue into the fall.

I found it interesting, though, that looking at the years you have there for the winter, they are similar to my thinking, with a wetter than average conditions for the NE/northern Mid Atlantic into parts of the south, also above average for the NW and below average for most of the south.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Aug 19 2010, 12:47 AM