July 16-24 MidAtl/NE Above Average Period, Another Heat wave Options

[WeatherDudeNYC]

Well here is the thread

GFS has been showing a strong ridge developing around the 16th, this ridge encompass almost the whole country and peak right over the northeast, plus the jet stream will be shot up all the way to Hudson bay,Canada

peak seems to be July 21-23

Here are a few maps

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[Phased Vort]

So far I'm not seeing much of anything out of ordinary from the 16th of July through 19th July.

Looks like there will be a kind of a flat ridge more along the lines of a zonal flow regimen during that time period. That ridge looks to have a 588 dim height especially along the eastern part of the region from the Mid-Atlantic and encompassing the whole of the Northeast, while the 592 dim height advances from the Ohio valley towards the western and central Mid-Atantic through western PA, Maryland and NY while 850mb temperatures range during those 3 days basically stay in the 18C to 20C range.

All of the above, would lead to seasonal temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 80's with a mean number around 84F to 88F. Some of those may reach 90F or so.

After the 20th through the 25th, there may be the possibility of high temperatures reaching the upper 80's and lower 90's as 592 dim height and 850 mb temperature of 20C to 22C argue for 2-meter temperatures, the high, to basically stay in the range aforementioned of 88F to 93F.


BONUS outlook call: The first week of August could try to rival the first week of July 2010.

Will continue to monitor how this all evolves. If things change, it will be discussed.


GFS and ECMWF aided in this write-up. More emphasis on the ECMWF.

[NYCSuburbs]

You beat me to it, I was about to create the thread

Between July 16-19, it seems that there should be 90s again, but considering how frequent 90s are this summer, that's nothing very unusual. The warm temperatures should continue to be sustained after that IMO with a few possible breaks, but as Carlos said, I'd look towards the start of August, maybe even the end of July, for the next potential of hot temperatures.

[Noreastericane]

I can't match up the colors exactly, but it looks like that map shows 105-110 degress for central Maryland on July 22? That would be crazy if it actually happens.

[WeatherDudeNYC]

I can't match up the colors exactly, but it looks like that map shows 105-110 degress for central Maryland on July 22? That would be crazy if it actually happens.

the light pink is 100F - 105F

[pinkelephants]

BONUS outlook call: The first week of August could try to rival the first week of July 2010.

Will continue to monitor how this all evolves. If things change, it will be discussed.
GFS and ECMWF aided in this write-up. More emphasis on the ECMWF.

For your bonus outlook call... do you mean the cool fall like weather we had, or the hot gross weather we had?

*please say fall like, please say fall like, please say fall like*

[NYCSuburbs]

The 00z ECM definitely shows heat making a comeback... 850 mb temperatures stay near or over 18c from Tuesday the 13th and on, with its longer range showing hot temperatures for next weekend, having 850 mb temperatures similar to those of the heat wave we just had. It's the longer range ECM so I don't completely trust it, but next weekend could bring hot temperatures back.

[futureweatherman...]

The 00z ECM definitely shows heat making a comeback... 850 mb temperatures stay near or over 18c from Tuesday the 13th and on, with its longer range showing hot temperatures for next weekend, having 850 mb temperatures similar to those of the heat wave we just had. It's the longer range ECM so I don't completely trust it, but next weekend could bring hot temperatures back.

Actually temperatures don't get past 95 through the whole run.

[TheMaineMan]

Hahaha I love that map... after hogging all of the cold and snow, now the mid-Altantic can keep their heat while I enjoy average temperatures.

[Phased Vort]

Actually temperatures don't get past 95 through the whole run.

Still no upper 90's and low 100's this time.

So the period should be ruled by mid to upper 80's at first and then upper 80's to low 90's.

Ridge heights do not argue for anything like what we just had this past week. 850mb temperatures mostly in the 18C to 20C range, and then may reach the 22C level.

[Weatherjunkie]

The MJO which had been in phase 1/2 prior to our last heat wave has entered the COC. This argues against the typical MJO induced La-Nina affects that may have helped us with the last heat wave.




As Carlos stated it will be relatively zonal, with no heat pumping into the region. However, this is only the 8-10 day, which covers the first half of the aforementioned time period. The 12z GFS/0z ECMWF Ensembles do bring in LP anomalies in SE Canada and onto the east coast from the 17th onward, so we'll have to wait and see if we even do see an above average period.

[Removed_Member_Garrett_*]

For your bonus outlook call... do you mean the cool fall like weather we had, or the hot gross weather we had?

*please say fall like, please say fall like, please say fall like*

I'm with ya there! The first week of this month felt GREAT!

[fisherboy]

Looks like all the lawns will totally be gone by then

[Phased Vort]

For your bonus outlook call... do you mean the cool fall like weather we had, or the hot gross weather we had?

*please say fall like, please say fall like, please say fall like*

Most likely hot.

[TheMaineMan]

I think that whoever wished for super-hot weather this summer should be forced to run a marathon outside while wearing a very heavy winter coat.

I don't really see very hot weather in the coming weeks... I mean maybe 2 or 3 degrees above average but that is not really a big deal.

[yankees]

The MJO which had been in phase 1/2 prior to our last heat wave has entered the COC. This argues against the typical MJO induced La-Nina affects that may have helped us with the last heat wave.




As Carlos stated it will be relatively zonal, with no heat pumping into the region. However, this is only the 8-10 day, which covers the first half of the aforementioned time period. The 12z GFS/0z ECMWF Ensembles do bring in LP anomalies in SE Canada and onto the east coast from the 17th onward, so we'll have to wait and see if we even do see an above average period.

Yep looks as if upper 80s to low 90s could be expected during the first half but the 2nd half as you said looks to be the next heatwave period.

[NYCSuburbs]

Looks like all the lawns will totally be gone by then

Actually, there is a good chance our lawns will be saved by then. The first half of this time period (July 13-17) should remain very warm for some places, but it will also be very humid with a chance of rain each day.

It's by the 16-19th that we are looking at the return of the heat, with the GFS, GGEM and ECMWF showing the return of warmer 850 mb temperatures, and when combined with drier conditions, would lead to much warmer temperatures.

[The Day After To...]

Anouther one! WOW.

I figured out how to make videos on my PC so you will get one soon.

[HSinVA]

What is going on with temperatures this summer? Does anyone recall any similar years with repeated patterns of abnormally high temps along the east coast?

I know that forming la ninas can cause hotter than normal temps, but this is ridiculous!

[NorEaster07]

What is going on with temperatures this summer? Does anyone recall any similar years with repeated patterns of abnormally high temps along the east coast?

I know that forming la ninas can cause hotter than normal temps, but this is ridiculous!

I remember 2005 being very similar always above 85...lots of 90+ days too... and thats when I witnessed the strongest T-Cell ever... and some people comparing it to 1966 too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syDLQIoNPjQ