Invest 92L, Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential: Low - 10% Options

[MAC292OH10]

you would think this would be 92L, but showing up as 98L...

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2010, DB, O, 2010080400, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982010
AL, 98, 2010080300, , BEST, 0, 118N, 620W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010080306, , BEST, 0, 123N, 637W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010080312, , BEST, 0, 128N, 655W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010080318, , BEST, 0, 132N, 673W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 691W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 90, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2010

1. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Phased Vort]

What ?!


It took a while for them to make this an invest.


But what is up with the wrong denomination?

Dave as you said, this one is supposed to be 92L.

[kab2791]

Oh Dave, you just beat me to it. We already had 98L, typo for sure.

[MAC292OH10]

What ?!
It took a while for them to make this an invest.
But what is up with the wrong denomination?

Dave as you said, this one is supposed to be 92L.

not sure why they are going with 98L...

Oh Dave, you just beat me to it. We already had 98L, typo for sure.

LOL....and im quite lagging with this on again off again wireless connect...

[Phased Vort]

Kevin, we knew this was invest worthy, lol.

We have been liking it since last night.

Did you read JB about it ?

[NYCSuburbs]

Wunderground.com highlighted it as Invest 98L, but placed it in the same place as Invest 98L from July was

Anyways, really nice potential... I would not be surprised to see this become Danielle when looking at the maps MAC292OH10 posted, but I don't know what its current environment is so I can't know for sure.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Aug 3 2010, 09:45 PM

[kab2791]

Kevin, we knew this was invest worthy, lol.

We have been liking it since last night.

Did you read JB about it ?

Yes, I have...had a nice suspenseful ring to the ending.

Heck yeah we knew.

[gloryboy1417]

[Phased Vort]

It seems they deactivated the wrong one, 98l. Probably to active the right one which is 92L.

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[MAC292OH10]

It seems they deactivated the wrong one, 98l. Probably to active the right one which is 92L.

the shortest lived invest evar...j/k...

[kab2791]

00Z NAM HR 84

[alfoman]

98L or 92L?
It seems to me like the NWS is very confused this hurricane season. They put up corrupted and miss numbered data, and people get all confused. This one is surely 92L, there is no reason for them to randomly place a 98 when the routine is to name the next invest one number up from the last. Anyway, the first days of August have really started to heat things up in the tropics. Well, Colin, which is still in play, was too fast for itself and became Bonnie’s little brother or something- cause it was tiny like bonnie. Colin isn’t out of the picture yet, so I can not say it was a failure. As of now it looks like an open wave being ripped apart. Colin may still have a chance to redevelop over the waters of the east coast as it curves into Nova Scotia. Anyway, Colin is also not a failure, because it saturated the dry air over the Atlantic, making waters more favorable for development. Also, this year looks to be a busy one on the east coast, so now that the dry air is out of the way shear, ULLs, and TUTT are the main factors in killing a tropical cyclone. The waters in the Caribbean are fairly favorable for development, but there are area’s of mild shear of 20-30 knots. Beside that, this storm has no problem-well, if it can get its act together. That will be a key in whether this storm will hit the gulf and the U.S. The models show it becoming a tropical depression in a 12-36 hour period. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be at 30 mph at this time. The NWS is putting a 20% chance of development for this wave. By tomorrow, if the wave doesn’t loose too much of its convection and strength, it could become Tropical Depression 5. I believe the faster this storm will develop the less of a threat it will become to the U.S. The stronger it becomes the more of a westerly trend it would take, IMO. The invest as just recently been named, so we need to let nature take its course over the next few days. The models will not do anything for anyone, and they will not give us any important information. We can use them, like a said before, as a point of reference, but never as a main source of data. I believe that this storm has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next two days and 60% in the next four days. This storm may become our second hurricane of the season.
The rest of the Atlantic looks mild…for now. I was looking at the satellite earlier today and an alarm went off in my head…Africa…the waves that will be coming off Africa the next few days look fairly promising especially the one that is about to enter the waters of the Atlantic. We are going to see a change in the next week or two. I promise you that.

[hurricanehunter]

If the models hold true, I don't see much for 92L past the depression stage. Looks like Alex redux to me except for the fact that it will be over water for a shorter time. Convection beginning to perk up though.

[phantomflyer]

When I saw 98 come up I had to look at the calender to make sure it was August and not July! We have it right on these boards...92L.

Maybe the boys in the NHC will change this once they realize they have duplicated this.

[Phased Vort]

If the models hold true, I don't see much for 92L past the depression stage. Looks like Alex redux to me except for the fact that it will be over water for a shorter time. Convection beginning to perk up though.

If it does not head into Nicaragua, then it would basically stay over the water the same amount of time Alex's invest did, of course, if tracking speeds were to be similar. At least. that is how I'm interpreting it.

[Phased Vort]

00Z ATCF tracks:



00Z Accu Picks:

[kab2791]

Alright! We have a floater:
92L Floater

[hurricanehunter]

If it does not head into Nicaragua, then it would basically stay over the water the same amount of time Alex's invest did, of course, if tracking speeds were to be similar. At least. that is how I'm interpreting it.

Most of the models head 92L to the WNW into the southern BOC. If I remember it, Alex went northwest and even NNW for a time before recurving to the west. I say this has about 36 hours before heading inland, and maybe another 24 hours over the BOC before hitting Mexico a second time.

[Phased Vort]

Alright! We have a floater:
92L Floater

Alright!!!

[phantomflyer]

If the models hold true, I don't see much for 92L past the depression stage. Looks like Alex redux to me except for the fact that it will be over water for a shorter time. Convection beginning to perk up though.

Agreed hurricanehunter...but stranger things have happened!