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> September 2010 MidAtl/NE Forecasts/Discussion, Temp, Precip, & Pattern Discussion
BtownWxWatcher
post Aug 23 2010, 06:54 PM
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Post away!


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ArmonkStorm
post Aug 23 2010, 07:20 PM
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Still going to have to deal with the SE ridge IMO, above average temps for the East....


--------------------
Average Seasonal Snow: 35"

Total Snow for the 09-10 Season--- 43.5"
Total Snow for the 10-11 Season--- 70.5"
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BtownWxWatcher
post Aug 23 2010, 07:34 PM
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CPC september forecast
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/


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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 24 2010, 03:18 AM
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Warmer/potentially drier than normal for the Mid Atlantic.

I'll have my reasoning and a map with my fall outlook that will be posted later this week.
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Hertz
post Aug 24 2010, 08:09 AM
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QUOTE(ArmonkStorm @ Aug 23 2010, 08:20 PM) *
Still going to have to deal with the SE ridge IMO, above average temps for the East....


Agree.

I'm from Cleveland, enjoying this week (not so hot). But it's going to heat up again beginning Friday/Saturday....

I'm tired of the warmth but almost all sources point towards an above normal first half of fall (right into October). Oh well.

I've seen hints though that by November it may be colder. Let's hope! (ArmonkStorm, do you agree there?)

Then it gets stormy and bit above normal again by Jan/Feb, though there are some conflicting signals.


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*
post Aug 24 2010, 10:19 PM
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Im calling for a warm and dry September. Basically what's been the case this summer, just not as extreme. Its quite possible to see a taste of late fall conditions near the end of September with the first patchy frost possible, in local areas.

Leafs will likely change early this year, perhaps 2 weeks before normal.
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Aug 25 2010, 12:45 AM
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This summer has been pretty good in the rain department for CNY..CFS calling for EC here in the northeast, sept is are rainiest month of the yr ..So should see a good amount of precip hopefully..


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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BtownWxWatcher
post Aug 25 2010, 12:40 PM
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Overall I expect Average to Above average temps and Average to Below average rainfall.

I will have a small discussion/map out later tonight.

Does anyone know if the extreme high elevations/northern latitudes get snow in September?


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ArmonkStorm
post Aug 25 2010, 05:31 PM
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QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Aug 25 2010, 01:40 PM) *
Overall I expect Average to Above average temps and Average to Below average rainfall.

I will have a small discussion/map out later tonight.

Does anyone know if the extreme high elevations/northern latitudes get snow in September?


Nothing here in the NE, out west is a different story


--------------------
Average Seasonal Snow: 35"

Total Snow for the 09-10 Season--- 43.5"
Total Snow for the 10-11 Season--- 70.5"
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BtownWxWatcher
post Aug 25 2010, 07:44 PM
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September '10 Forecast/Discussion
Attached File  September_2010_Forecast.jpg ( 109.87K ) Number of downloads: 0

QUOTE
Discussion:Weak-Moderate La Nina will bring a classic Nina pattern this month as I see no major pattern differences, also because of the very warm east over the summer. The Southeast, Mid Atlantic, and Southern New England will have Above average temps and Below average precip due to a SE Ridge, the SW also looks this way. The Rockies, Southern and Central Plains, Ohio Valley, Southern Great Lakes area, Western Northeast, Central New England, and Southern New England look about average in terms of temps and precip, although it could go either slightly above average/below average in Temps/Precip though, but this area should have closer to ''Normal'' departures. The Northwest, Upper Plains, Midwest, and Upper Great Lakes looks to have Below average temps and Above average precip due to a strong PV and a moisture flow through the Northern US/Southern Canada;I think there are potentials for Frost/Freezes and maybe even some flurries/light snow events in the later part of the month, especially in the most northern areas and high altitude areas. For Hurricane activity, it will be a little more likely than last month, since were getting right into the middle of Hurricane Season.


Factors for this month
Near neutral NAO/AO
+EPO
-PNA
Rising/+QBO


What could go wrong?


1. SE ridge doesnt develop and we get a further south storm track and allows the PV to go further south, allowing for colder temperatures and more precip in the SE/MA.
2. The Pacific gets so ugly that over 1/2 of the country torches, aka a 1998-1999/1999-2000, it is possible with a Decent La Nina/+QBO/+EPO pattern, I doubt it, but we'll see.


Confidence:7/10


Comments and Suggestions are Appreciated:)

http://wxunleashed.blogspot.com/


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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 27 2010, 08:53 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Aug 24 2010, 04:18 AM) *
Warmer/potentially drier than normal for the Mid Atlantic.

I'll have my reasoning and a map with my fall outlook that will be posted later this week.

My September/fall outlook will be posted in a few days as I unfortunately lost most of my planning for my outlook, but I'm sticking with my thoughts for September at this time. It also looks like the first half of September will be well above average, with September 1/2 setting the stage at first, a weak cool down for September 3-5 with slightly below average temps, and another potential significant warm up afterwards.

The only thing that did change with my thoughts is that I may need to add a potential above average precipitation area for parts of the Southeast near the coast, as tropical activity from the current train of tropical waves emerging out of Africa could threaten the SE.
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Noreastericane
post Aug 27 2010, 09:58 AM
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Has anyone else in Maryland (or mid-Atlantic) noticed their leaves changing? Most of the trees around here are already turning yellow. I've never seen leaves change colors this early! I read it's due to the ridiculous heat this summer.


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BtownWxWatcher
post Aug 27 2010, 10:07 AM
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QUOTE(Noreastericane @ Aug 27 2010, 10:58 AM) *
Has anyone else in Maryland (or mid-Atlantic) noticed their leaves changing? Most of the trees around here are already turning yellow. I've never seen leaves change colors this early! I read it's due to the ridiculous heat this summer.

Yeah, some of them, I saw some earlier in the month, but most of my trees are still greeen, yeah its probally due to the heat/dryness of this summer.


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cr3boys
post Aug 27 2010, 04:14 PM
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QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Aug 27 2010, 11:07 AM) *
Yeah, some of them, I saw some earlier in the month, but most of my trees are still greeen, yeah its probally due to the heat/dryness of this summer.

I just noticed today, that The leaves on a few of my trees, are turning a beautiful red, Fall-like color. According to two local news sources, Northern Virginia is not in a drought. I believe this to be true because my grass, flowers, shrubs, still look quite healthy.
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TheMaineMan
post Aug 27 2010, 05:55 PM
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A month of temperature extremes for NNE... back and forth between heat waves and cold spells... averaging out to below average temperatures and wetter than normal.


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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WEATHERFREAK
post Aug 28 2010, 05:11 PM
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But this La Nina is anything but "classic". I have a big feeling the East will see a below average fall starting the 2ed half of September since most of La Nina is centered in the Central Pacific.


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"Windy has wings to fly".
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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 29 2010, 01:43 AM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFREAK @ Aug 28 2010, 06:11 PM) *
But this La Nina is anything but "classic". I have a big feeling the East will see a below average fall starting the 2ed half of September since most of La Nina is centered in the Central Pacific.

It's possible, but then we have to look at the overall pattern this spring and summer, which was for above average temperatures, and with no significant pattern change yet, as well as La Nina history with similar analogs to this year pointing to above average temperatures, I see no reason why this shouldn't continue through the fall months.
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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 30 2010, 06:43 AM
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The 06z GFS has a large ridge persistent for the Mid Atlantic for most of the longer range. While I'm not sure if it will be that warm for this long, I still think we'll see above average temperatures for a good part of September with occasional periods of slightly below average temps, like the first weekend of September.

Attached File  06zgfs850mbTSLPUS324.gif ( 44.4K ) Number of downloads: 2
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hckyplayer8
post Sep 21 2010, 07:25 PM
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Thus far this month.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  MonthPDeptNRCC.png ( 18.19K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  MonthTDeptNRCC.png ( 21.5K ) Number of downloads: 4
Attached File  MonthPDeptUS.png ( 12.93K ) Number of downloads: 4
Attached File  MonthTDeptUS.png ( 16.16K ) Number of downloads: 6
 


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The views and opinions expressed in my posts are of my own and do not reflect the views of the USAF.
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TheMaineMan
post Sep 25 2010, 08:25 AM
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What a difference a year makes! September 2009 brought 0.11 inches of rain, and September 2010 has brought 4.24 inches so far, with more rain possible on Tuesday. It's making up for the dry summer!

That temp map surprises me... almost every day has been below-average here. I guess the first few days of the month when we were 20 degrees above normal distorts it pretty bad... but overall things HAVE been cooler than average.


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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