 October 2010 MidAtl/NE Forecasts/Discussion, Temp, Precip, & Pattern Discussion |
AccuWeather.com Forums > Weather Forums > Current Weather - United States > Long-Range U.S. Forecasts  |
 Sep 19 2010, 05:10 PM
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#1
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Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 29,274 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491  |
CPC's October outlook has been posted, it looks like October could be another above average month, possibly with the highest departures this fall. Post your thoughts below.
Also, October's departures can be related to the following winters, sometimes warmer than average Octobers equal to warmer than average winters... we'll see if that is true this winter or if the opposite happens. [attachment=105418:off14_temp.gif] This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Sep 19 2010, 05:12 PM -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Sep 19 2010, 10:05 PM
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#2
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,274 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
There are two sets of analogs that I found for this winter, one of them created by snowguy716, and the other one which I came up with, and both seem to be indicating a warmer than average October.
First set of analogs: 
cd24_187_179_2_261_20_46_37_prcp.png ( 130.97K )
Number of downloads: 1My set of analogs:
oct_t.png ( 119.5K )
Number of downloads: 1For the precipitation, the first set of analogs has above average precipitation, though the analogs I came up with show a drier than average October. I should probably note that the precipitation departures for September so far are almost identical to the analog mean I came up with for September. Precipitation:
oct_p.png ( 107.78K )
Number of downloads: 0-------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Sep 20 2010, 09:56 AM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,784 Joined: 10-February 08 From: 2 steps outside philly Member No.: 13,593 |
QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Sep 19 2010, 06:10 PM)  CPC's October outlook has been posted, it looks like October could be another above average month, possibly with the highest departures this fall. Post your thoughts below. Also, October's departures can be related to the following winters, sometimes warmer than average Octobers equal to warmer than average winters... we'll see if that is true this winter or if the opposite happens. [attachment=105418:off14_temp.gif] I thought it was warmer octobers equal colder winters? maybe i just need some coffee to wake up and start thinking 
-------------------- carpe diem
Live free or die Don't be a weenie or i Will be forced to ROAST YOU! |
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Sep 23 2010, 06:25 PM
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#4
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,820 Joined: 14-December 08 From: Lakewood, NY Member No.: 16,475 |
Beautiful:
18z GFS
9_23_2010_18z.PNG ( 35.13K )
Number of downloads: 5Not quite snow, but closer. On a side note, I found pictures from a snowstorm around October 11th, 1906 from Salamanca, NY. 6" fell here. 
234salamancab.jpg ( 27.46K )
Number of downloads: 4
235nmsalamancab.jpg ( 23.97K )
Number of downloads: 2This post has been edited by WNYLakeEffect: Sep 23 2010, 06:27 PM -------------------- Winter 2010-11 Snow: 148.0"
Winter 2009-10 Snow: 128.3" Winter 2008-09 Snow: 175.0" |
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Sep 23 2010, 06:34 PM
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,274 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(WNYLakeEffect @ Sep 23 2010, 07:25 PM) Beautiful: 18z GFS
9_23_2010_18z.PNG ( 35.13K )
Number of downloads: 5Not quite snow, but closer. On a side note, I found pictures from a snowstorm around October 11th, 1906 from Salamanca, NY. 6" fell here.
234salamancab.jpg ( 27.46K )
Number of downloads: 4
235nmsalamancab.jpg ( 23.97K )
Number of downloads: 2Twisterdata maps show snow (even here ), though they are usually off on the placement of the snow, as they don't seem to be factoring in the surface temperatures too much, and it seems to consider that every snowflake accumulates.
GFS_3_2010092318_F300_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png ( 69.75K )
Number of downloads: 5-------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Sep 25 2010, 08:29 AM
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#6
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,141 Joined: 12-March 10 Member No.: 22,300 |
Well, last October was cooler than normal and wetter than normal, and then the winter was near-record warm and quite dry.
I had above-average snowfall in October (heavy trace), and below-average snowfall for the season. So the theory that the October pattern can lead to the winter pattern, although it may hold true some years, was the opposite last year, at least IMBY. If October ends up being warm, it won't panic me one bit. -------------------- Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches 2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches 2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches 2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches 2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches 2012-2013 snowfall so far: 78 inches Coldest temp of 2012-2013 winter so far: -8 F Winter 2012/2013: First frost: September 20 First freeze: October 8 First snowflakes in sky: November 8 First measurable snow: November 8 (2 inches) Total snowfall 2012-2013 season: October: None November: 2 inches December: 20 inches January: 12 inches February: 42 inches March: 2 inches |
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Sep 25 2010, 08:40 AM
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#7
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,098 Joined: 13-November 08 From: Chicken Capital,PA Member No.: 16,148 |
off_prcp_small.gif ( 51.37K )
Number of downloads: 2
off_temp_small.gif ( 47.79K )
Number of downloads: 2 Temp wise, models show the exact opposite of their chart to start out Oct. We'll see what happens. I like the above average precip along the coasts. -------------------- Troll Mode engaged due to the explosion of the Philadelphia Flyers by their worthless management.
"The solar system is so humongous big... like net to shooters that face me in shootout." "We lose shootout and I get paid big money to do nothing but don't worry be happy" ~Ilya Bryzgalov |
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Sep 25 2010, 09:13 PM
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#8
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Rank: Tornado Group: Founding Member Posts: 279 Joined: 3-June 07 From: orlando Member No.: 6,152 |
Yeah it appears more and more that the October will start out below average in the East. Let's see how things pan out for the rest of the month.
-------------------- "WINDY HAS WINGS TO FLY."
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Sep 26 2010, 06:40 PM
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#9
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,494 Joined: 3-November 08 From: Perry Hall,MD Member No.: 16,078 |
My official forecast/
http://wxunleashed.blogspot.com/?zx=43714d46bfb1f7dc -------------------- No Wishcasting,Just Forecasting
I be on facebook a lot lol Summers a skorcher, don't let it continue, 105 BWI 7/6/10 FTW Winter 2010-2011:Moderate/Strong La Nina? Stay Tuned -PDO/Global Cooling on the way? http://wxunleashed.blogspot.com/ |
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Sep 27 2010, 12:45 PM
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#10
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,577 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 |
QUOTE(hckyplayer8 @ Sep 25 2010, 09:40 AM)
off_prcp_small.gif ( 51.37K )
Number of downloads: 2
off_temp_small.gif ( 47.79K )
Number of downloads: 2Temp wise, models show the exact opposite of their chart to start out Oct. We'll see what happens. I like the above average precip along the coasts. GFS has been showing shots of cool/cold air throughout the first half of the month with Canada remaining cold. When CPC updates the October outlook on the 30th, it should probably look much different. -------------------- # of T-Storm Watches:2
# of Tornado Watches: # of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Warnings: |
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Sep 27 2010, 12:49 PM
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 23,852 Joined: 8-January 09 From: Ulster County Member No.: 16,816 |
unless there is a radical change to the models over the next few days it loos like at least the beginning of October should be well below average.
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Sep 27 2010, 09:05 PM
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#12
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,064 Joined: 13-October 09 From: Armonk, NY Member No.: 19,440 |
QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Sep 27 2010, 01:49 PM) unless there is a radical change to the models over the next few days it loos like at least the beginning of October should be well below average. Yup, just might be enough to make October the first below average month for NYC since last winter -------------------- Average Seasonal Snow: 35"
Total Snow for the 09-10 Season--- 43.5" Total Snow for the 10-11 Season--- 70.5" |
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Oct 1 2010, 03:49 PM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,274 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
IMO there's no better way to start October than a week of consistently below average highs... Upton has my highs in the 60s for most of the 7-day forecast, and according to the NAM/GFS I could see highs in the 50s on October 4th.
GFS:
gfs.gif ( 35.32K )
Number of downloads: 2CPC now shows an average and wetter than October:
off15_temp.gif ( 18.55K )
Number of downloads: 1This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Oct 1 2010, 03:50 PM -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Oct 1 2010, 04:49 PM
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#14
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,281 Joined: 17-December 08 From: Freehold Boro Member No.: 16,547 |
It starts off cool with below avg temps, then moderates threwout the week and we see above avg temps..
extended.gif ( 145.3K )
Number of downloads: 2http://www.wktv.com/weather/ftp-images/97686709.html This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Oct 1 2010, 04:53 PM -------------------- Central monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30" Freehold boro snowfall 2008 - 2009: 26.8" 2009 - 2010: 74.2" 2010 - 2011: 61.1" 2011 - 2012: 8.5" 2012 - 2013: 37.1" |
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Oct 2 2010, 08:38 AM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,141 Joined: 12-March 10 Member No.: 22,300 |
The models have already been changing like crazy... IMO October will be unlike September in that temperatures will be slightly above normal, but alike in that it will also bring above-average rainfall.
-------------------- Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches 2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches 2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches 2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches 2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches 2012-2013 snowfall so far: 78 inches Coldest temp of 2012-2013 winter so far: -8 F Winter 2012/2013: First frost: September 20 First freeze: October 8 First snowflakes in sky: November 8 First measurable snow: November 8 (2 inches) Total snowfall 2012-2013 season: October: None November: 2 inches December: 20 inches January: 12 inches February: 42 inches March: 2 inches |
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Oct 2 2010, 10:04 PM
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#16
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 114 Joined: 29-August 10 Member No.: 23,505 |
what do u guys think october will be like
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Oct 5 2010, 08:08 PM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,098 Joined: 13-November 08 From: Chicken Capital,PA Member No.: 16,148 |
Brett Anderson's interpretation of the Euro Weeklies.
  
-------------------- Troll Mode engaged due to the explosion of the Philadelphia Flyers by their worthless management.
"The solar system is so humongous big... like net to shooters that face me in shootout." "We lose shootout and I get paid big money to do nothing but don't worry be happy" ~Ilya Bryzgalov |
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Oct 6 2010, 04:40 PM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,281 Joined: 17-December 08 From: Freehold Boro Member No.: 16,547 |
According to the NE regional climate center, i have 8-10" of precip this week not counting today..Thats alot of rain for this area..Thats like 3 months lol
http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/page_regional.html -------------------- Central monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30" Freehold boro snowfall 2008 - 2009: 26.8" 2009 - 2010: 74.2" 2010 - 2011: 61.1" 2011 - 2012: 8.5" 2012 - 2013: 37.1" |
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Oct 9 2010, 01:34 PM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,141 Joined: 12-March 10 Member No.: 22,300 |
If this month ends up above-average temperature wise, which is looking likely at this point, that will be 12 straight months of above-average temperature anomalies as October 2009 was our last below-average month.
-------------------- Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches 2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches 2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches 2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches 2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches 2012-2013 snowfall so far: 78 inches Coldest temp of 2012-2013 winter so far: -8 F Winter 2012/2013: First frost: September 20 First freeze: October 8 First snowflakes in sky: November 8 First measurable snow: November 8 (2 inches) Total snowfall 2012-2013 season: October: None November: 2 inches December: 20 inches January: 12 inches February: 42 inches March: 2 inches |
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Oct 9 2010, 02:23 PM
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,107 Joined: 14-May 10 From: Cleveland, OH Member No.: 22,778 |
Eight consecutive for me (Northern Ohio area). Every month since March has been a surplus. Although, September was easily the least warm (versus normal) of the bunch and October started chilly, but now it's warm and the outlook for the next couple of weeks looks uncertain - with some forecasts suggesting warm but some others saying chilly.
I'm still looking forward to mid-November, when many forecasters here have predicted an onslaught of winter. This post has been edited by Hertz: Oct 9 2010, 02:24 PM -------------------- Let's hope this winter actually happens!
Severe Wx 2012 Cuyahoga Cty Severe thunderstorm watches: 4/30, 5/27, 7/1, 7/5, 7/26, 7/27, 9/7 Tornado watches: 2/29 (Svr Wx on Leap Day!) Tornado warnings: Slight Risk days: 2/29, 3/2 (stayed south), 3/12, 3/30, 4/16 (total bust), 4/30, 5/2 (busted), 5/4, 5/7 (didn't really pan out), 5/27, 6/18, 6/24 (busted and later removed), 6/28 (mostly busted), 7/1, 7/3-7/5, 7/7 (storms stayed just to SE), 7/18, 7/23 (bust), 7/25-7/27, 8/4 night, 8/9, 9/7 Moderate Risk days: Possibly 7/26, but it was mostly to my south/east. High Risk days: Strongest thunderstorms to date (from my house): Sandy was far more damaging than any thunderstorm. But probably something during July. Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): Think it's one of the wind guests from July |
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