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> October 2010 MidAtl/NE Forecasts/Discussion, Temp, Precip, & Pattern Discussion
NYCSuburbs
post Sep 19 2010, 05:10 PM
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CPC's October outlook has been posted, it looks like October could be another above average month, possibly with the highest departures this fall. Post your thoughts below.

Also, October's departures can be related to the following winters, sometimes warmer than average Octobers equal to warmer than average winters... we'll see if that is true this winter or if the opposite happens.

[attachment=105418:off14_temp.gif]

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Sep 19 2010, 05:12 PM
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NYCSuburbs
post Sep 19 2010, 10:05 PM
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There are two sets of analogs that I found for this winter, one of them created by snowguy716, and the other one which I came up with, and both seem to be indicating a warmer than average October.

First set of analogs:

Attached File  cd24_187_179_2_261_20_46_37_prcp.png ( 130.97K ) Number of downloads: 1


My set of analogs:

Attached File  oct_t.png ( 119.5K ) Number of downloads: 1


For the precipitation, the first set of analogs has above average precipitation, though the analogs I came up with show a drier than average October. I should probably note that the precipitation departures for September so far are almost identical to the analog mean I came up with for September.

Precipitation:

Attached File  oct_p.png ( 107.78K ) Number of downloads: 0
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irishbri74
post Sep 20 2010, 09:56 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Sep 19 2010, 06:10 PM) *
CPC's October outlook has been posted, it looks like October could be another above average month, possibly with the highest departures this fall. Post your thoughts below.

Also, October's departures can be related to the following winters, sometimes warmer than average Octobers equal to warmer than average winters... we'll see if that is true this winter or if the opposite happens.

[attachment=105418:off14_temp.gif]



I thought it was warmer octobers equal colder winters? maybe i just need some coffee to wake up and start thinking laugh.gif


--------------------
carpe diem


Live free or die

Don't be a weenie or i Will be forced to ROAST YOU!
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WNYLakeEffect
post Sep 23 2010, 06:25 PM
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Beautiful:
18z GFS
Attached File  9_23_2010_18z.PNG ( 35.13K ) Number of downloads: 5

Not quite snow, but closer.


On a side note, I found pictures from a snowstorm around October 11th, 1906 from Salamanca, NY. 6" fell here.
Attached File  234salamancab.jpg ( 27.46K ) Number of downloads: 4

Attached File  235nmsalamancab.jpg ( 23.97K ) Number of downloads: 2


This post has been edited by WNYLakeEffect: Sep 23 2010, 06:27 PM


--------------------
Winter 2010-11 Snow: 148.0"
Winter 2009-10 Snow: 128.3"
Winter 2008-09 Snow: 175.0"
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NYCSuburbs
post Sep 23 2010, 06:34 PM
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QUOTE(WNYLakeEffect @ Sep 23 2010, 07:25 PM) *
Beautiful:
18z GFS
Attached File  9_23_2010_18z.PNG ( 35.13K ) Number of downloads: 5

Not quite snow, but closer.


On a side note, I found pictures from a snowstorm around October 11th, 1906 from Salamanca, NY. 6" fell here.
Attached File  234salamancab.jpg ( 27.46K ) Number of downloads: 4

Attached File  235nmsalamancab.jpg ( 23.97K ) Number of downloads: 2

Twisterdata maps show snow (even here laugh.gif ), though they are usually off on the placement of the snow, as they don't seem to be factoring in the surface temperatures too much, and it seems to consider that every snowflake accumulates.

Attached File  GFS_3_2010092318_F300_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png ( 69.75K ) Number of downloads: 5
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TheMaineMan
post Sep 25 2010, 08:29 AM
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Well, last October was cooler than normal and wetter than normal, and then the winter was near-record warm and quite dry.

I had above-average snowfall in October (heavy trace), and below-average snowfall for the season.

So the theory that the October pattern can lead to the winter pattern, although it may hold true some years, was the opposite last year, at least IMBY. If October ends up being warm, it won't panic me one bit.


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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hckyplayer8
post Sep 25 2010, 08:40 AM
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Attached File  off_prcp_small.gif ( 51.37K ) Number of downloads: 2


Attached File  off_temp_small.gif ( 47.79K ) Number of downloads: 2


Temp wise, models show the exact opposite of their chart to start out Oct. We'll see what happens. I like the above average precip along the coasts.


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WEATHERFREAK
post Sep 25 2010, 09:13 PM
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Yeah it appears more and more that the October will start out below average in the East. Let's see how things pan out for the rest of the month.


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BtownWxWatcher
post Sep 26 2010, 06:40 PM
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My official forecast/
http://wxunleashed.blogspot.com/?zx=43714d46bfb1f7dc


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Winter 2014-2015:Weak El Niņo? Return of the Polar Vortex or Torch?
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snowlover2
post Sep 27 2010, 12:45 PM
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QUOTE(hckyplayer8 @ Sep 25 2010, 09:40 AM) *
Attached File  off_prcp_small.gif ( 51.37K ) Number of downloads: 2


Attached File  off_temp_small.gif ( 47.79K ) Number of downloads: 2


Temp wise, models show the exact opposite of their chart to start out Oct. We'll see what happens. I like the above average precip along the coasts.


GFS has been showing shots of cool/cold air throughout the first half of the month with Canada remaining cold. When CPC updates the October outlook on the 30th, it should probably look much different.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:6

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:5

# of Tornado Warnings:0
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LoveNYCSnow
post Sep 27 2010, 12:49 PM
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unless there is a radical change to the models over the next few days it loos like at least the beginning of October should be well below average.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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ArmonkStorm
post Sep 27 2010, 09:05 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Sep 27 2010, 01:49 PM) *
unless there is a radical change to the models over the next few days it loos like at least the beginning of October should be well below average.


Yup, just might be enough to make October the first below average month for NYC since last winter


--------------------
Average Seasonal Snow: 35"

Total Snow for the 09-10 Season--- 43.5"
Total Snow for the 10-11 Season--- 70.5"
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NYCSuburbs
post Oct 1 2010, 03:49 PM
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IMO there's no better way to start October than a week of consistently below average highs... Upton has my highs in the 60s for most of the 7-day forecast, and according to the NAM/GFS I could see highs in the 50s on October 4th.

GFS:

Attached File  gfs.gif ( 35.32K ) Number of downloads: 2


CPC now shows an average and wetter than October:

Attached File  off15_temp.gif ( 18.55K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Oct 1 2010, 03:50 PM
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Oct 1 2010, 04:49 PM
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It starts off cool with below avg temps, then moderates threwout the week and we see above avg temps..
Attached File  extended.gif ( 145.3K ) Number of downloads: 2


http://www.wktv.com/weather/ftp-images/97686709.html

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Oct 1 2010, 04:53 PM


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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TheMaineMan
post Oct 2 2010, 08:38 AM
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The models have already been changing like crazy... IMO October will be unlike September in that temperatures will be slightly above normal, but alike in that it will also bring above-average rainfall.


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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crows
post Oct 2 2010, 10:04 PM
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what do u guys think october will be like
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hckyplayer8
post Oct 5 2010, 08:08 PM
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Brett Anderson's interpretation of the Euro Weeklies.







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The views and opinions expressed in my posts are of my own and do not reflect the views of the USAF.
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Oct 6 2010, 04:40 PM
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According to the NE regional climate center, i have 8-10" of precip this week not counting today..Thats alot of rain for this area..Thats like 3 months lol


http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/page_regional.html


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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TheMaineMan
post Oct 9 2010, 01:34 PM
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If this month ends up above-average temperature wise, which is looking likely at this point, that will be 12 straight months of above-average temperature anomalies as October 2009 was our last below-average month.


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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Hertz
post Oct 9 2010, 02:23 PM
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Eight consecutive for me (Northern Ohio area). Every month since March has been a surplus. Although, September was easily the least warm (versus normal) of the bunch and October started chilly, but now it's warm and the outlook for the next couple of weeks looks uncertain - with some forecasts suggesting warm but some others saying chilly.

I'm still looking forward to mid-November, when many forecasters here have predicted an onslaught of winter.

This post has been edited by Hertz: Oct 9 2010, 02:24 PM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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