ARCHIVE: HURRICANE OTTO, Saved for later searches! (2010 Atlantic Storms) Options

[Pahzy See]

Here comes another one off of the African coast:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972010.invest
FSTDA
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U
040
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201009300744
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NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2010, DB, O, 2010093006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972010
AL, 97, 2010092906, , BEST, 0, 127N, 356W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010092912, , BEST, 0, 128N, 375W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010092918, , BEST, 0, 129N, 394W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010093000, , BEST, 0, 130N, 413W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010093006, , BEST, 0, 131N, 432W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...

3. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ALSO
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

[Pahzy See]

Current SATELLITE,:



SHIPS data:

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972010 09/30/10 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 48 54 56 56 57 59 60
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 48 54 56 56 57 59 60
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 35 38 42 45 48 51 55 61

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0)

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

He's heading practically due west at 22 MPH with 30 MPH winds and pressure starting to drop. Could this be Otto or another dud?

[Pahzy See]

Winds looking pretty good. Already looks like it has more potential than Nicole ever did.


SOURCE,

[jdrenken]

Code orange...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH TWO TROPICAL
WAVES...IS CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA ARE CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN

[jdrenken]

00Z and 06Z model runs

[Pahzy See]

So does this mean the two waves are merging? Looks like we are starting to see some rotation about the center here...



SOURCE,

[jdrenken]

So does this mean the two waves are merging? Looks like we are starting to see some rotation about the center here...



SOURCE,

The USNRL predict page has three areas of interest.

PGI51L is the farthest West location of 127N 627W.

PGI48L is next at 139N 560W.

PGI49L is farthest East at 139N 459W.

So, it should be interesting as I agree that 49L and 48L will merge at some point.

[jdrenken]

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC THU SEP 30 2010

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

.CARIBBEAN TROUGH 22N79W TO 16N85W. N OF 13N SE OF TROUGH TO
73W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 22N79W TO 15N83W. FROM 12N TO 17N
BETWEEN 78W AND 83W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DEVELOPING LOW PRES 1009 MB AT 19N80W WITH
TROUGH TO 13N83W. E OF TROUGH TO 83W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT.
SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR TROUGH.

[weatherboss]

Yeah it'll merge. And hopefully it becomes a named system soon....

It's still September/October 1st and there are currently no named systems....anywhere in the world

[MAC292OH10]

Yeah it'll merge. And hopefully it becomes a named system soon....

It's still September/October 1st and there are currently no named systems....anywhere in the world

unless your counting U.S. landfalls...the Atlantic season will be classified as ABOVE NORMAL!!!

[east coast storm]

unless your counting U.S. landfalls...the Atlantic season will be classified as ABOVE NORMAL!!!

Could we be looking at more interesting weather next week as 97L moves
NW in the direction of the SE coast and hooks up with the stalled front
off the EC and comes up the front as a extratropical storm?

[concord13]

Even if one of these areas developes, what are the odds of us seeing an impact to the US coast?

[MAC292OH10]

Could we be looking at more interesting weather next week as 97L moves
NW in the direction of the SE coast and hooks up with the stalled front
off the EC and comes up the front as a extratropical storm?

not gonna say that it isnt possible, but i believe its more less wishful thinking for 97L at this point as NO models really jump on developing it(the big 2 ECMWF & GFS do not develop on the 12Z runs)...with troughs getting deeper this time of yr and plowing FROPA's way way south and then HPs that drop in behind the FROPA's should be fairly stout from a blocking stand point...if anything was to creep up the EC it would likely have to be birthed in the far western Caribbean or GOM or it will likely end up ala Omar '08 or even Paloma '08...similar to todays ECMWF @192hr--->240hr...

[hurricanehunter4...]

Yeah it'll merge. And hopefully it becomes a named system soon....

It's still September/October 1st and there are currently no named systems....anywhere in the world

u hope?
human life's are at stake here

[hckyplayer8]

u hope?
human life's are at stake here

I believe the mer-people will be just fine.

[east coast storm]

not gonna say that it isnt possible, but i believe its more less wishful thinking for 97L at this point as NO models really jump on developing it(the big 2 ECMWF & GFS do not develop on the 12Z runs)...with troughs getting deeper this time of yr and plowing FROPA's way way south and then HPs that drop in behind the FROPA's should be fairly stout from a blocking stand point...if anything was to creep up the EC it would likely have to be birthed in the far western Caribbean or GOM or it will likely end up ala Omar '08 or even Paloma '08...similar to todays ECMWF @192hr--->240hr...

I was looking at the NWS hpc long range maps for next week. and it shows
a couple of lows near the bahamas linking up with the stalled front
of the EC next week and actually coming up the coast to give the
MA and NE another coastal storm.

[MAC292OH10]

I was looking at the NWS hpc long range maps for next week. and it shows
a couple of lows near the bahamas linking up with the stalled front
of the EC next week and actually coming up the coast to give the
MA and NE another coastal storm.

you specifically asked about 97L... ...today's HPC map's do not show 97L as part of that system...nor should anything attached to a boundary be considered purely tropical in nature...

today's HPC D7...97L is just north or so of the T&C islands...

[MAC292OH10]

So you are saying that the front off the EC this weekend should block 97L Otto?
from coming close to the SE coast, and the coastal storm that forms on that
front off the NC coast tuesday 10/5 will be purely non tropical.

the system your are talking about which is not 97L may have a sort of tropical connection as in moisture funneled up from the Caribbean, but i dont see much evidence on the models that suggest a purely tropical system ATTM...in short a hybrid howler type if it is to occur how HPC depicts, similar to what is occurring now with Nicole's remnants...

also, NHC hasn't initialized the ATCF models for 97L since 6Z so that's not a good thing...

This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Sep 30 2010, 08:17 PM

[jdrenken]

also, NHC hasn't initialized the ATCF models for 97L since 6Z so that's not a good thing...

This might have something to do with it...according to the USNRL site, the best vort and conv is on top of PGI49L...not PGI48L.

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[east coast storm]

the system your are talking about which is not 97L may have a sort of tropical connection as in moisture funneled up from the Caribbean, but i dont see much evidence on the models that suggest a purely tropical system ATTM...in short a hybrid howler type if it is to occur how HPC depicts, similar to what is occurring now with Nicole's remnants...

also, NHC hasn't initialized the ATCF models for 97L since 6Z so that's not a good thing...

Thats what I was thinking , that the coastal storm developing off the NC
coast next week could draw up the tropical moisture from 97L similiar
to the situation with Nicole or 97L could move NW, hook up with the
front, come up the front as a large extratropical storm next week
giving rain and wind to the MA and NE Would any of you guys agree
with me on my thoughts?