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> Oct 21-23 MidAtl/NE Rain/Snow Storm, Closed - See OBS Thread
WeatherDudeNYC
post Oct 8 2010, 11:31 AM
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Made this thread to discuss the oct 20 -25 storm( i put wide date for any movement)

GFS is showing a cold support storm

Here is the 06z GFS on the morning of the 23rd

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SnowMan11
post Oct 8 2010, 11:48 AM
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Storm is a Lakes Cutter on the 12z GFS lol


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WeatherDudeNYC
post Oct 8 2010, 11:53 AM
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blame the nose diving ULL tongue.gif

This post has been edited by WeatherDudeNYC: Oct 8 2010, 11:53 AM
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Oct 8 2010, 11:58 AM
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There seems to be a couple/few lake cutters around this time frame lol


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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marked8
post Oct 8 2010, 12:04 PM
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And so the season of Great Lakes cutters begins.


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2009-2010 snowfall total: 76 inches
2010-2011:
14.0 inches total
2011-2012:
Dusting
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windman
post Oct 8 2010, 12:09 PM
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GFS has been hinting at a storm system in this time frame for a while now... Since the one for next weekend has disappeared, would like to see this one bring some excitement. Hopefully it's not one of those La Nina years where we have to wait till December to get a major storm system (such as 2007).
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WeatherMatrix
post Oct 8 2010, 12:20 PM
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I wouldn't put much stock in it this far out because of the GFS cold bias, without other models showing it but here is what GFS is officially showing today:

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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Oct 8 2010, 12:23 PM
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I am not buying the snow this model sees in late OCT. Who knows, maybe this winter LA Nina while actually bring more ocean effect snowfall this winter with the frontal boundaries and Alberta Clippers/Miller B type snowstorms will be the norm.
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WeatherDudeNYC
post Oct 8 2010, 12:37 PM
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850mb temps

Link

Skew-t for NYC during storm

-0.8C laugh.gif

Skew-T

This post has been edited by WeatherDudeNYC: Oct 8 2010, 12:39 PM
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Removed_Member_Snowrider_*
post Oct 8 2010, 01:33 PM
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QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Oct 8 2010, 01:23 PM) *
I am not buying the snow this model sees in late OCT. Who knows, maybe this winter LA Nina while actually bring more ocean effect snowfall this winter with the frontal boundaries and Alberta Clippers/Miller B type snowstorms will be the norm.


Hey, the blizzard of 78 was a Miller B storm!! That was the best blizzard I've ever seen.

Snowrider.
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Niyologist
post Oct 8 2010, 01:52 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherDudeNYC @ Oct 8 2010, 12:53 PM) *
blame the nose diving ULL tongue.gif


This is one scenario that I see that is more likely than the "Fantasy GFS Scenario".


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LoveNYCSnow
post Oct 8 2010, 01:57 PM
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12Z GFS has two storms tracking through the lakes, obviously this would end all talk of an east coast snow threat. However we are really far out so the track of the storm could change or there may not even be a storm at all. This time period does look worth tracking though for our first snow threat for parts of the northeast. Remember it has snowed the last two octobers in the NE.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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NYCSuburbs
post Oct 8 2010, 02:15 PM
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GFS Fantasy Land.

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It's not impossible as it has happened in previous years, the last two especially, but considering this is almost near hour 384, I have no reason to take it seriously yet. I'd rather wait for a few days and see if it's still there.
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StormTrackerWill
post Oct 8 2010, 02:38 PM
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I see a different setup. I know the GFS 18z is hinting towards a coastal storm development phasing with the incoming trough, but I highly doubt that. In fact, I feel more inclined to believe that the GFS 12z interpretation is a little more believable. Yes, the NAO is expected to go negative towards the end of the month. So, there is a good chance of a storm set-up across the eas coast. However, I sense that the low pressure will make a track through the Great Lakes as we begin to see a La Nina scenerio develop. I doubt that any measurable snow will fall if at all, due to the weak cold air aloft. I could see a rain/snow mixture. But I think a rain event is more prevelant. This just gives us a look at the overall pattern that is to come...
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TVGuy22
post Oct 8 2010, 02:43 PM
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So what time will it start at my house?


tongue.gif


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WeatherDudeNYC
post Oct 9 2010, 05:25 AM
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00z GFS shows the storm on the 23rd, but its a lakes cutter again dry.gif
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WEATHERFAN100
post Oct 9 2010, 12:50 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherDudeNYC @ Oct 9 2010, 06:25 AM) *
00z GFS shows the storm on the 23rd, but its a lakes cutter again dry.gif

Don't be dissapointed. Its only October and most of the storms in this part of the year will be App runners or GLC's. Plus its to far out and once again its only OCTOBER!


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NYCSuburbs
post Oct 9 2010, 07:37 PM
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I haven't been here for a day, looks like I didn't miss much... 12z GFS shows a weak GLC, 18z GFS has a strong Nor'easter that brings mainly rain. I'm still waiting to find any signs on consistency with this time frame before taking it with more than a grain of salt.


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TheMaineMan
post Oct 10 2010, 08:16 AM
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... He used the s-word! laugh.gif

This is typically the time of year I see my first flakes in the sky, but October's low temperatures have been rather mild thus far and I can't tell if this trend will continue or not. Could make all the difference.

For my region, I'd be surprised to get anything more than a trace.


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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WeatherDudeNYC
post Oct 10 2010, 10:13 AM
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06z GFS shows a soaker

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But gets interesting

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This post has been edited by WeatherDudeNYC: Oct 10 2010, 10:14 AM


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