Oct. 11 MidAtl/NE Severe Weather - AccuWeather.com Forums

Oct. 11 MidAtl/NE Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Slight Risk - Forecasts & OBS

phillyfan View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 09:58 AM Post #1
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 3,295 Joined: 13-January 08 From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.) Member No.: 12,448	Wondering why there's no thread for today. This post has been edited by jdrenken: Oct 11 2010, 02:43 PM Reason for edit: Edited per SPC Outlook -------------------- Severe Weather 2013 Severe T-Storm Watch: 4/24 Tornado Watch: 4/19

grandpaboy View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 10:26 AM Post #2
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,824 Joined: 24-January 08 From: 39.96N, 74.2W Member No.: 12,978	[quote name='phillyfan' date='Oct 11 2010, 10:58 AM' post='1072787'] Wondering why there's no thread for today. Yeah i was kinda wondering the same thing, definitely looks liike a good risk for central PA.... Cape and Shear increasing in PA..... http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly....php?sector=16# http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly....php?sector=16# -------------------- Fall/Winter 2012/13--------- First Snow: 11/7/12 - 7 inches Bunch of Clippers that produced a total of 3 inches... 2/8/13 - Blizzard backend snows - 6.5 inches +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ WINTER 2009/2010 Season 73.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2010/2011 Season total - 49 inches ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2011/2012 Season Toal - Too little to mention

grandpaboy View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 11:20 AM Post #3
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,824 Joined: 24-January 08 From: 39.96N, 74.2W Member No.: 12,978	DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055- 060>062-067>071-120830- NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET- MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER- CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- 416 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL BE THE ONES THAT CAN ARRIVE OR OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING IS IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?...Weather+Outlook -------------------- Fall/Winter 2012/13--------- First Snow: 11/7/12 - 7 inches Bunch of Clippers that produced a total of 3 inches... 2/8/13 - Blizzard backend snows - 6.5 inches +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ WINTER 2009/2010 Season 73.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2010/2011 Season total - 49 inches ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2011/2012 Season Toal - Too little to mention

phillyfan View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 01:30 PM Post #4
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 3,295 Joined: 13-January 08 From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.) Member No.: 12,448	-------------------- Severe Weather 2013 Severe T-Storm Watch: 4/24 Tornado Watch: 4/19

phillyfan View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 01:54 PM Post #5
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 3,295 Joined: 13-January 08 From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.) Member No.: 12,448	one little line so far. QUOTE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 232 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010 PAZ012-018-019-045-111915- NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA- SOUTHERN CLINTON PA- 232 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CLINTON AND CENTRE COUNTY BORDER... AT 228 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS CLOSE TO MONUMENT AND ORVISTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BALD EAGLE STATE PARK AROUND 240 PM...BEECH CREEK AROUND 250 PM...MILL HALL AROUND 255 PM...LAMAR AROUND 300 PM...MACKEYVILLE AROUND 305 PM AND LOGANTON AROUND 315 PM. THIS WILL IMPACT I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 169 AND 187. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 220 FROM NEAR LAMAR ON I-80 TO LOCK HAVEN...STATE ROAD 120. -------------------- Severe Weather 2013 Severe T-Storm Watch: 4/24 Tornado Watch: 4/19

phillyfan View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 02:04 PM Post #6
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 3,295 Joined: 13-January 08 From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.) Member No.: 12,448	Severe Thunderstorm Warning now. QUOTE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING PAC027-087-119-112000- /O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0202.101011T1856Z-101011T2000Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 256 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN MIFFLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHEASTERN CENTRE COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 400 PM EDT * AT 253 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON DOPPLER RADAR. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM HOWARD TO ROCK SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... REBERSBURG AROUND 305 PM... POTTERS MILLS AND MILLHEIM AROUND 310 PM... POE VALLEY STATE PARK AND SEVEN MOUNTAINS AROUND 315 PM... REEDSVILLE AND MILROY AROUND 320 PM... WEIKERT AND YEAGERTOWN AROUND 325 PM... LEWISTOWN AROUND 330 PM... THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES... I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 160 AND 167...I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 69 AND 85. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 22/522... ROUTE 220...ALTERNATE ROUTE 220...ROUTE 322...ROUTE 522...STATE ROAD 26...STATE ROAD 45. -------------------- Severe Weather 2013 Severe T-Storm Watch: 4/24 Tornado Watch: 4/19

phillyfan View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 02:28 PM Post #7
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 3,295 Joined: 13-January 08 From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.) Member No.: 12,448	Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely to be issued. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1945 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...OH - NY - PA - NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 111919Z - 112015Z ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT HAS LINGERED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER...NWWD INTO SRN ONTARIO IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND UPDRAFTS BECOME ROOTED IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL THERMALS. THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS COULD EASILY ORGANIZE AS THEY PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS PA TOWARD NJ/SRN NY. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS AN UPWARD EVOLVING BROKEN SQUALL LINE STRETCHES FROM TIOGA COUNTY PA...ARCING INTO CENTRE COUNTY PA. DAMAGING WINDS CERTAINLY SEEM POSSIBLE WITH AFOREMENTIONED CELLS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT CAN ORIENT THEMSELVES IN A NE-SW FASHION. ..DARROW.. 10/11/2010 -------------------- Severe Weather 2013 Severe T-Storm Watch: 4/24 Tornado Watch: 4/19

NYCSuburbs View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 02:31 PM Post #8
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,266 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491	I was not expecting this The storms seem to be staying to my south, though I think western NJ and central/parts of northern NJ may have to keep an eye out for the storms. -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6"

phillyfan View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 02:36 PM Post #9
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 3,295 Joined: 13-January 08 From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.) Member No.: 12,448	QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Oct 11 2010, 03:31 PM) I was not expecting this The storms seem to be staying to my south, though I think western NJ and central/parts of northern NJ may have to keep an eye out for the storms. 3 warnings out so far -------------------- Severe Weather 2013 Severe T-Storm Watch: 4/24 Tornado Watch: 4/19

grandpaboy View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 02:40 PM Post #10
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,824 Joined: 24-January 08 From: 39.96N, 74.2W Member No.: 12,978	Impressive cells breaking out...... http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CCX...11&loop=yes -------------------- Fall/Winter 2012/13--------- First Snow: 11/7/12 - 7 inches Bunch of Clippers that produced a total of 3 inches... 2/8/13 - Blizzard backend snows - 6.5 inches +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ WINTER 2009/2010 Season 73.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2010/2011 Season total - 49 inches ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2011/2012 Season Toal - Too little to mention

grandpaboy View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 02:41 PM Post #11
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,824 Joined: 24-January 08 From: 39.96N, 74.2W Member No.: 12,978	Shear and Cape are increasing nicely over PA and central Jersey........ http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly....php?sector=16# -------------------- Fall/Winter 2012/13--------- First Snow: 11/7/12 - 7 inches Bunch of Clippers that produced a total of 3 inches... 2/8/13 - Blizzard backend snows - 6.5 inches +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ WINTER 2009/2010 Season 73.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2010/2011 Season total - 49 inches ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2011/2012 Season Toal - Too little to mention

phillyfan View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 02:42 PM Post #12
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 3,295 Joined: 13-January 08 From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.) Member No.: 12,448	big warning box just issued. This might skirt off to the north of me. -------------------- Severe Weather 2013 Severe T-Storm Watch: 4/24 Tornado Watch: 4/19

phillyfan View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 02:46 PM Post #13
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 3,295 Joined: 13-January 08 From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.) Member No.: 12,448	Watch till 10pm now. QUOTE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 698 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 340 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 698 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS PAC011-015-017-025-029-037-041-043-045-067-069-071-075-077-079- 081-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-107-109-113-115-117-119-127- 131-120200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0698.101011T1940Z-101012T0200Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKS BRADFORD BUCKS CARBON CHESTER COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE JUNIATA LACKAWANNA LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH LUZERNE LYCOMING MONROE MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PHILADELPHIA PIKE SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA UNION WAYNE WYOMING -------------------- Severe Weather 2013 Severe T-Storm Watch: 4/24 Tornado Watch: 4/19

Superstorm93 View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 03:20 PM Post #14
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,860 Joined: 24-January 08 From: Nowhere, ND Member No.: 13,040	Not expecting this. I'll have to keep an eye on this later. QUOTE Tonight: A chance of rain and thunderstorms before 9pm, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm between 9pm and 3am, then rain likely after 3am. Some storms could be severe, with large hail and damaging winds. Low around 54. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. This post has been edited by Superstorm93: Oct 11 2010, 03:24 PM -------------------- -Mike P Realism

phillyfan View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 03:25 PM Post #15
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 3,295 Joined: 13-January 08 From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.) Member No.: 12,448	QUOTE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 413 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010 NJZ007-PAZ054-055-060>062-068-069-112215- BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CARBON PA-LEHIGH PA-MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA- NORTHAMPTON PA-WARREN NJ- 413 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BERKS...BUCKS...CARBON... LEHIGH...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...NORTHAMPTON AND WARREN COUNTIES... AT 409 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 52 MILES WEST OF WILKES-BARRE TO 61 MILES NORTHWEST OF LANCASTER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. WHILE MOST LOACATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH 6 PM, THOSE AREAS THAT ARE IMPACTED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN. -------------------- Severe Weather 2013 Severe T-Storm Watch: 4/24 Tornado Watch: 4/19

phillyfan View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 03:42 PM Post #16
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 3,295 Joined: 13-January 08 From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.) Member No.: 12,448	well that stayed to the north of me, unless something else forms later nothing is going to happen here. -------------------- Severe Weather 2013 Severe T-Storm Watch: 4/24 Tornado Watch: 4/19

NYCSuburbs View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 03:57 PM Post #17
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,266 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491	The NYC area could get lucky again... a bunch of strong storms seem to be headed towards me, if not just to my north or south, but I could see something. Strange how I never saw severe storms this summer other than the July 25 storm, and all of the severe weather comes in the fall... QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Oct 11 2010, 04:20 PM) Not expecting this. I'll have to keep an eye on this later. If the storms reach us, there's a pretty good chance it'll happen. -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6"

Hail_on_Me View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 04:52 PM Post #18
Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 392 Joined: 7-August 09 From: NE Jersey Baby! Member No.: 18,838	Head up Scranton! Tornado vortex indicated http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast...&rainsnow=0

WeatherDudeNYC

Oct 11 2010, 05:02 PM

Post #19

Rank: F5 Superstorm

Group: Member
Posts: 4,418
Joined: 13-January 10
From: Bronx,NY
Member No.: 20,929

scranton,pa

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NYCSuburbs View Member Profile	Oct 11 2010, 05:08 PM Post #20
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,266 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491	QUOTE(WeatherDudeNYC @ Oct 11 2010, 06:02 PM) scranton,pa It might just pass to my north if it doesn't change directions (which it looks like it's currently doing so) or suddenly collapse... -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6"

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