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> Long Range Winter 2011/2012 Outlooks, Wrap Ups
jdrenken
post Oct 16 2011, 07:58 PM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Oct 16 2011, 07:56 PM) *
He stated the Rex Block. It's a feature that has closed HP's near the PNW and a shortwave around Central California. There's also a S/W emerging from the Northeastern Plains and lots of troughing at the East Coast. That spells clippers and Miller B's. Lots and lots of cold and snow is the result.


That wasn't the question. The question was related to where Larry is hearing about the mild winter gossip.


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snofan
post Oct 16 2011, 08:18 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 16 2011, 09:54 AM) *
New Graph...Check this out... Total snowfall during each decade. Some highlights from it...

* Hartford is 366 inches away from the normal for an entire decade with 8 years still left.
* Vermont had 986 inches of snow in the 70s.
* Albany had 754 inches in the 70s which is 20% more than normal for a decade
* Chicago has been below normal every decade except the 60s and 70s, and in the 70s they had 574" * which is 40% more than nomal
Denver, Columbia, & St. Louis have trended less and less each decade since after the 70s.
* Columbia, MO got 77" of snow in the last 2 years which is just 54 inches away from having more than the entire last decade
* Baltimore got 324 inches of snow in the 1960s which is 65% more snow then average for a decade
* All coastal cities(except Boston) need roughly 100-170 inches in the next 8 years to tie the average for an entire decade
* Boston had 4 decades out of 6 with above normal snow (60s, 70s, 90s & 2000s)
* Coastal CT needs just 80 inches more of snow to have more than the entire decade of the 80s

[attachment=142315:Snowfall..._Decade2.jpg]


Amazing work! Very interesting. This is my favorite chart so far. The 70's were great years for snow!


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Dave • Jericho, VT
Eastern Chittenden County



WINTER SEASON 2012/2013 So Far: 105"

WINTER SEASON 2011/2012: 50"

WINTER SEASON 2010/2011: 252" Epic snowstorms!
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Niyologist
post Oct 16 2011, 08:27 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 16 2011, 08:58 PM) *
That wasn't the question. The question was related to where Larry is hearing about the mild winter gossip.


Well that's really unknown. tongue.gif


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snowlover2
post Oct 16 2011, 08:35 PM
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That Snowday outlook is awesome. Lock it in! biggrin.gif


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# of T-Storm Watches:6

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:5

# of Tornado Warnings:0
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Removed_Member_weathertree4u_*
post Oct 16 2011, 08:48 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Oct 16 2011, 08:35 PM) *
That Snowday outlook is awesome. Lock it in! biggrin.gif


Well, I just hope that the TN Valley can get through another Season without any major ice storms, but, I think that this may be our year huh.gif
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snowlover2
post Oct 16 2011, 09:04 PM
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Ruggie put a video out of his latest forecast.

Ruggie Video


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# of T-Storm Warnings:5

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Torontoweather
post Oct 16 2011, 09:13 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 16 2011, 08:57 PM) *
Snowday has issued their second outlook.


Seems like a fairly well researched forecast. The end result looks fairly reasonable, although im not too sure why they used 2010-11 as an analogue as well as 1954-55 when they said they were using 2nd year La Ninas...


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CIWeather
post Oct 16 2011, 09:13 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 16 2011, 07:57 PM) *
Snowday has issued their second outlook.


Looks pretty good for both of us, JD. Let's hope that verifies and we could both be spending some late nights in these forums. wink.gif laugh.gif cool.gif


--------------------
2012-2013 Fall/Winter Statistics

First Chance of Snow: 11/26/12 (Rain/Snow Mix; First Forecasted on 11/20/12)
First Snowflakes: 11/26/12
First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: 12/31/12 (Winter Weather Advisory)
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# of Winter Storm Watches: 1
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April 18-19, 2011: 15-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL.
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NYCSuburbs
post Oct 16 2011, 09:14 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 16 2011, 07:51 PM) *
Larry Cosgrove's thoughts from yesterday with a hint of what he expects this winter at the end of the page. wink.gif

I'm not sure if I'm reading this right, but this part of the post seems to imply that he expects the coldest temperatures this winter to end up over the north central US, which sounds similar to what I've been hearing so far, and I assume would lead to storm tracks either over the eastern US/OH Valley or closer to the coast.

QUOTE
Linkage on such a ridge, in turn would promote a cAk vortex across the Great Lakes in the dead of winter.

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NYCSuburbs
post Oct 16 2011, 09:18 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 16 2011, 08:57 PM) *
Snowday has issued their second outlook.

It's a nice outlook, it's well written and nicely organized. I agree with some of the points, and even though I'd love for it to verify, I have to question the temperature departure map - the map he shows seems to imply almost a complete absence of the SE ridge, to an extent where it's almost as weak, if not weaker than last year, if the SE is to average out as well below average for the entire winter.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Oct 16 2011, 09:18 PM
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NorEaster07
post Oct 16 2011, 09:18 PM
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QUOTE(snofan @ Oct 16 2011, 09:18 PM) *
Amazing work! Very interesting. This is my favorite chart so far. The 70's were great years for snow!


Thanks...that was surprising to me cause I thought I had more snow in the 70s but 60s beat it. And can you come to the conclusion from this that in the 70s there were more patterns with inland tracks? and the 60s had coastals? Look at the top and bottom graphs...coastals had more snow in the 60s then Inland cities and vise versa for the 70s.

And If you notice Denver, MN, Fargo, MO all have less and less per decade since the 70s.

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Oct 16 2011, 09:24 PM


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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Indygirl
post Oct 17 2011, 10:33 AM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Oct 16 2011, 09:35 PM) *
That Snowday outlook is awesome. Lock it in! biggrin.gif

Yep!....this year is definitely shaping up for those of us in the OV! Now I'm convinced!
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jdrenken
post Oct 17 2011, 10:56 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Oct 16 2011, 09:14 PM) *
I'm not sure if I'm reading this right, but this part of the post seems to imply that he expects the coldest temperatures this winter to end up over the north central US, which sounds similar to what I've been hearing so far, and I assume would lead to storm tracks either over the eastern US/OH Valley or closer to the coast.


I agree that he was a little vague. A difference of Western GL and Eastern GL cutter is huge on who gets what.


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stuffradio
post Oct 17 2011, 11:18 AM
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I keep hearing from people that the PNW will barely get any snow, and it will be mild. Why does the PNW keep on getting screwed from snow? I hear the Greenland blocking will give us a mild winter, and no snow... like an El Nino
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grace
post Oct 17 2011, 11:35 AM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Oct 17 2011, 11:18 AM) *
I keep hearing from people that the PNW will barely get any snow, and it will be mild. Why does the PNW keep on getting screwed from snow? I hear the Greenland blocking will give us a mild winter, and no snow... like an El Nino


Hey, I'd wouldn't get too worked up at this point. No one knows for certain if there is going to be a longstanding Greenland block. If it does indeed occur this winter then you can get worked up. wink.gif
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Wendellwx
post Oct 17 2011, 12:24 PM
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NCEP ensemble forecast shows deep La Niña coming. If this pans out the 2011-2012 winter may be colder than forecast.


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Hertz
post Oct 17 2011, 12:55 PM
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QUOTE(Wendellwx @ Oct 17 2011, 01:24 PM) *
NCEP ensemble forecast shows deep La Niña coming. If this pans out the 2011-2012 winter may be colder than forecast.


It's the CFS.

Nuff said.


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
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Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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okie333
post Oct 17 2011, 01:29 PM
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New ENSO data out:

4: -0.5C
3.4: -0.8C
3: -0.8C
1+2: -1.2C


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Hertz
post Oct 17 2011, 01:49 PM
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East based currently as was correctly anticipated a day or two ago.

This Nina seems to be behaving rather unpredictably - it went from west based to basin wide/central based to east based in only two weeks.

In fact I believe in the ~40 days since a La Nina was officially declared it's essentially flipped from mainly east based to mainly west based then right back to mainly east based! That's just crazy!!

Something tells me we could use someone who's able to make sense of what's going on here.

This post has been edited by Hertz: Oct 17 2011, 02:04 PM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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futureweatherman...
post Oct 17 2011, 02:24 PM
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QUOTE(Hertz @ Oct 17 2011, 02:49 PM) *
East based currently as was correctly anticipated a day or two ago.

This Nina seems to be behaving rather unpredictably - it went from west based to basin wide/central based to east based in only two weeks.

In fact I believe in the ~40 days since a La Nina was officially declared it's essentially flipped from mainly east based to mainly west based then right back to mainly east based! That's just crazy!!

Something tells me we could use someone who's able to make sense of what's going on here.

Weekly data is pretty irrelevant. Monthly and biomonthly SSTs make the main difference.


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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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