Long Range Winter 2011/2012 Outlooks, Wrap Ups Options

[BtownWxWatcher]

Since the winter of 2010-2011 is going to be boring most likely, I want to start a thread on the possibilities that winter 2011-2012 could give.

First let me show ENSO plumes
 SST_table_Oct_2010.gif ( 46.76K ) Number of downloads: 17


This shows a waning La Nina going into Spring/Summer 2011.

So far we could have anything in terms of ENSO for next winter, setup looks better though with a likely -QBO.

[CrazyDon]

Since the winter of 2010-2011 is going to be boring most likely, I want to start a thread on the possibilities that winter 2011-2012 could give.

First let me show ENSO plumes
 SST_table_Oct_2010.gif ( 46.76K ) Number of downloads: 17


This shows a waning La Nina going into Spring/Summer 2011.

So far we could have anything in terms of ENSO for next winter, setup looks better though with a likely -QBO.

By your definition of boring... but at least you held off until Nov 2 this time.

[BtownWxWatcher]

By your definition of boring... but at least you held off until Nov 2 this time.

Ik, but theres nothing really interesting looking shaping up for the upcoming winter, unless by some miracle.

With a -QBO and likely a warmer ENSO state, next year could be fun!!

[SnowMan11]

Since the winter of 2010-2011 is going to be boring most likely, I want to start a thread on the possibilities that winter 2011-2012 could give.

First let me show ENSO plumes
 SST_table_Oct_2010.gif ( 46.76K ) Number of downloads: 17


This shows a waning La Nina going into Spring/Summer 2011.

So far we could have anything in terms of ENSO for next winter, setup looks better though with a likely -QBO.

Very bold statement. This isn't true for a lot of people.

This post has been edited by SnowMan11: Nov 2 2010, 11:21 AM

[bradjl2009]

Since the winter of 2010-2011 is going to be boring most likely, I want to start a thread on the possibilities that winter 2011-2012 could give.

First let me show ENSO plumes
 SST_table_Oct_2010.gif ( 46.76K ) Number of downloads: 17


This shows a waning La Nina going into Spring/Summer 2011.

So far we could have anything in terms of ENSO for next winter, setup looks better though with a likely -QBO.

Can we please get through this winter before hearing people *bleep* about this winter.

[BtownWxWatcher]

Winter ENSO state after La Nina winters.

1949-1950[Moderate]:1950-1951 Weak La Nina
1950-1951[Weak]:1951-1952 Weak El Nino
1954-1955[Moderate]:1955-1956 Strong La Nina
1955-1956[Strong]:1956-1957 Weak La Nina
1956-1957[Weak]:1957-1958 Moderate El Nino
1962-1963[Weak]:1963-1964 Weak El Nino
1964-1965[Moderate]:1965-1966 Moderate El Nino
1967-1968[Weak]:1968-1969 Weak El Nino
1970-1971[Weak]:1971-1972 Weak La Nina
1971-1972[Weak]:1972-1973 Strong El Nino
1973-1974[Strong]:1974-1975 Weak La Nina
1974-1975[Weak]:1975-1976 Strong La Nina
1975-1976[Strong]:1976-1977 Weak El Nino
1984-1985[Weak]:1985-1986 Neutral
1988-1989[Strong]:1989-1990 Neutral
1995-1996[Weak]:1996-1997 Neutral
1998-1999[Moderate]:1999-2000 Moderate La Nina
1999-2000[Moderate]:2000-2001 Weak La Nina
2000-2001[Weak]:2001-2002 Neutral
2007-2008[Moderate]:2008-2009 Neutral

Total after Nina years
1 Strong El Nino
2 Moderate El Ninos
4 Weak El Ninos
5 Neutral
5 Weak La Ninas
1 Moderate La Nina
2 Strong La Ninas

El Nino 7/20[35%]
Neutral 5/20 [25%]
La Nina 8/20 [40%]

Temperature and Precipitation after FIRST La Nina events
 cd72_81_234_33_305_15_35_36_prcp.png ( 119.34K ) Number of downloads: 5

 cd72_81_234_33_305_15_35_58_prcp.png ( 127.4K ) Number of downloads: 4

[irishbri74]

snow in the conus, some cold spells, some warm spells... someone will see below average, while others will see above average... HEy, someone will probably even see just Average snow..

[NYCSuburbs]

I honestly believe that in the winter of 2011-12, someone will see weather.

Way too early for me to even try to make a call.

[CrazyDon]

I honestly believe that in the winter of 2011-12, someone will see weather.

Way too early for me to even try to make a call.

But not too early for some, especially those who use astronomical teleconnections.

I believe the long range forecast from Theo was for the return of El Nino [in some form or shape] for 2011-2012.

My personal lean in looking into this pattern once it begins to take shape would be for El Nino conditions in some shape or form with the potential for an official weak El Nino by one definition or another for 2011-2012.

We have a long wait to see if this comes to fruition... long enough that there aren't many, if any, teleconnections that provide sufficient enough insight to back up a prediction with data... and I'm no astro-meteorologist.

This post has been edited by CrazyDon: Nov 9 2010, 01:09 PM

[BergenCountyNJ]

There's a thread for this already? REALLY????

[Fire/Rescue]

There's a thread for this already? REALLY????

YEP it sure looks that way, when I saw this I was like "Are you serious" I mean come on...The GFS cant even get the weather right for 10 days from a given time frame. Meaning it was origionally supposed to turn Bitter Cold in the East the final week of November according to the GFS just as little as a week ago it was still showing this...to now showing high's in the 50's for the last week of November!

Again.....were seriously talking about weather over a YEAR from now

[ArmonkStorm]

Oh no you didn't.........

 facepalm.png ( 5.5K ) Number of downloads: 8

[Fire/Rescue]

Oh no you didn't.........

 facepalm.png ( 5.5K ) Number of downloads: 8

lol

[BergenCountyNJ]

Oh no you didn't.........

 facepalm.png ( 5.5K ) Number of downloads: 8

LMAO

Awesome

[BtownWxWatcher]

November ENSO Plumes
 SST_table_1110.gif ( 46.87K ) Number of downloads: 6

End of forecasting range shows a slightly warmer average than Octobers discussion.

[Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*]

WOW, you were dead wrong by saying that winter 2010-2011 will be boring!!!!!!!

[redfish]

haha Hm... If this winter is "boring," I'm really looking forward to next winter!!! xD
Bring it on, snowpocalypse!

[stuffradio]

WOW, you were dead wrong by saying that winter 2010-2011 will be boring!!!!!!!

Depends on the area of the country you live in...

[BtownWxWatcher]

Since the winter of 2010-2011 is going to be boring most likely, I want to start a thread on the possibilities that winter 2011-2012 could give.

First let me show ENSO plumes
 SST_table_Oct_2010.gif ( 46.76K ) Number of downloads: 17


This shows a waning La Nina going into Spring/Summer 2011.

So far we could have anything in terms of ENSO for next winter, setup looks better though with a likely -QBO.

I stand corrected on this winter being boring lol.

[snowguy716]

In recent weeks, the subsurface water temperature anomalies in the Pacific have really warmed up and the warm pool has shifted east. In the past week, it now looks like that warm water will surface in the Niņo 3 area (though Niņo 3.4/4 still look to remain cool for the time being).

I'm sure people will be calling for El Niņo for winter 2011/12... but it is still too early to tell. While sea surface temps look to be warming in the tropical Pacific, the atmospheric dynamic of ENSO, the SOI, remains at record highs (indicating strong La Niņa conditions atmospherically).

This could go either way. The only good similar cases to what we have now are the 1970-1974, 1962-1965, and 1915-1917 periods.

I honestly have favored 1970-1974 for the Pacific despite the current warm AMO (which is why the U.S. impacts have not been the same... the warm AMO supporting a suppressed Atlantic jet (negative NAO)... hence why 2009/10 was colder in the east and warmer in the west than the unusual strong El Niņo of 1972/73).

If that were to play out similarly, we could expect 2011/12 to have ENSO neutral to weak La Niņa conditions as the atmosphere remains in La Niņa mode but the overabundance of warm subsurface water keeps the Niņo regions from staying cool. Once that warmer water has had a chance to surface and is recycled back westward again by stronger trade winds than normal... the La Niņa then restrengthens for 2012/13 before finally reverting to neutral/warm conditions.

We could also be in a similar position to the early/mid '60s when we had a rapid succession of flips in the Pacific with La Niņa in 1961/62 and 1962/63 followed by El Niņo in 1963/64, La Niņa in '65, and El Niņo again in '66. That would support a moderate El Niņo developing for next winter. The winter of 1965/66 was hardly typical for its impacts on the U.S.

You also have the 1949/50-1951/52 analogs... though this fit better into the 2007/08-2009/10 period. But it still had an El Niņo following a La Niņa. The El Niņo was weak and it was overpowered by both the cold PDO and warm AMO... so the west was cool while the east was warm.

We cannot discount 1915-1917. That period had a relatively weak solar variable as well as a volcanic component. After a succession of neutral to weak El Niņo conditions from 1911/12-1915/16, 1916/17 saw strong La Niņa conditions. That winter had persistently high SOI values that remained high all throughout 1917, leading to the record positive SOI values during the winter of 1917/18. That winter did not see particularly cold values in the tropical Pacific despite the strong SOI component. It's as if the ocean ran out of cold water to pool up. Might we see a winter like that next year? (I hope not.. the summer of 1917 saw brutal drought across much of the U.S. and then the winter was dry and cold for much of the nation).

After 1917/18 came a strong El Niņo that led to major famine in south Asia. The screwed up weather patterns caused by the El Niņo exacerbated the Spanish flu outbreak.


So in summary: It's a crapshoot at this point. The ocean is saying goodbye to La Niņa it seems.. .but the atmosphere is stubbornly keeping high pressure over Tahiti with torrential rains over Australia (as we've all heard about). All in all... we could be in for a heck of a summer/fall/winter. Or maybe things will be benign and we can save a bit on our grocery bills. (One can hope).