Long Range Winter 2011/2012 Outlooks, Wrap Ups Options

[stuffradio]

In recent weeks, the subsurface water temperature anomalies in the Pacific have really warmed up and the warm pool has shifted east. In the past week, it now looks like that warm water will surface in the Niņo 3 area (though Niņo 3.4/4 still look to remain cool for the time being).

I'm sure people will be calling for El Niņo for winter 2011/12... but it is still too early to tell. While sea surface temps look to be warming in the tropical Pacific, the atmospheric dynamic of ENSO, the SOI, remains at record highs (indicating strong La Niņa conditions atmospherically).

This could go either way. The only good similar cases to what we have now are the 1970-1974, 1962-1965, and 1915-1917 periods.

I honestly have favored 1970-1974 for the Pacific despite the current warm AMO (which is why the U.S. impacts have not been the same... the warm AMO supporting a suppressed Atlantic jet (negative NAO)... hence why 2009/10 was colder in the east and warmer in the west than the unusual strong El Niņo of 1972/73).

If that were to play out similarly, we could expect 2011/12 to have ENSO neutral to weak La Niņa conditions as the atmosphere remains in La Niņa mode but the overabundance of warm subsurface water keeps the Niņo regions from staying cool. Once that warmer water has had a chance to surface and is recycled back westward again by stronger trade winds than normal... the La Niņa then restrengthens for 2012/13 before finally reverting to neutral/warm conditions.

We could also be in a similar position to the early/mid '60s when we had a rapid succession of flips in the Pacific with La Niņa in 1961/62 and 1962/63 followed by El Niņo in 1963/64, La Niņa in '65, and El Niņo again in '66. That would support a moderate El Niņo developing for next winter. The winter of 1965/66 was hardly typical for its impacts on the U.S.

You also have the 1949/50-1951/52 analogs... though this fit better into the 2007/08-2009/10 period. But it still had an El Niņo following a La Niņa. The El Niņo was weak and it was overpowered by both the cold PDO and warm AMO... so the west was cool while the east was warm.

We cannot discount 1915-1917. That period had a relatively weak solar variable as well as a volcanic component. After a succession of neutral to weak El Niņo conditions from 1911/12-1915/16, 1916/17 saw strong La Niņa conditions. That winter had persistently high SOI values that remained high all throughout 1917, leading to the record positive SOI values during the winter of 1917/18. That winter did not see particularly cold values in the tropical Pacific despite the strong SOI component. It's as if the ocean ran out of cold water to pool up. Might we see a winter like that next year? (I hope not.. the summer of 1917 saw brutal drought across much of the U.S. and then the winter was dry and cold for much of the nation).

After 1917/18 came a strong El Niņo that led to major famine in south Asia. The screwed up weather patterns caused by the El Niņo exacerbated the Spanish flu outbreak.
So in summary: It's a crapshoot at this point. The ocean is saying goodbye to La Niņa it seems.. .but the atmosphere is stubbornly keeping high pressure over Tahiti with torrential rains over Australia (as we've all heard about). All in all... we could be in for a heck of a summer/fall/winter. Or maybe things will be benign and we can save a bit on our grocery bills. (One can hope).

Interesting post either way, I just want a really mild Spring with short bouts of rain (not that we need anymore rain), followed by a nice toasty summer with some breaks in it.

[jdrenken]

The Japanese are forecasting a return of La Nina.

Latest map for Sept-Nov

February 14, 2011 (notes updated February 15, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina condition would decay in following boreal spring and summer seasons but would rebound in fall and persist up to early 2012. The revived one would show a La Nina of Modoki nature

[NorEaster07]

Might as well post this in here too... Pacific Equator warming rapidly.

Look at the blues December 29th go to peaches March 9th.... At this pace we'll be in El Nino by next winter BUT... I dont think we'll get there...I'm thinking we will get to Neutral by Fall and then turn back down to a weak-moderate LaNina for the winter...



 LaNinaElNinob.jpg ( 84.85K ) Number of downloads: 3


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Mar 19 2011, 09:46 PM

[Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*]

Might as well post this in here too... Pacific Equator warming rapidly.

Look at the blues December 29th go to peaches March 9th.... At this pace we'll be in El Nino by next winter BUT... I dont think we'll get there...I'm thinking we will get to Neutral by Fall and then turn back down to a weak-moderate LaNina for the winter...
 LaNinaElNinob.jpg ( 84.85K ) Number of downloads: 3

I think that we will be in a weak El Nino, by next winter, and that could possibly result in another winter that would have above-average snowfall in the Northeast, and the Mid Atlantic states, but time will tell, and we have a long road ahead of us.

[jdrenken]

We have our first winter forecast out.

Weatheradvance.com



Their outlook from last year.

[kab2791]

Wouldn't complain one bit; still, I'll wait till October before taking anything more seriously.

We have our first winter forecast out.

Weatheradvance.com



Their outlook from last year.

[Noreastericane]

I'm not even gonna bother following next winter unless we somehow get a moderate or strong El Nino.

Every ENSO neutral year after a La Nina is a really crappy winter here: 96/97, 08/09, and of course, the mother of all crappy winters, 01/02.

[SnowMan11]

I'm not even gonna bother following next winter unless we somehow get a moderate or strong El Nino.

Every ENSO neutral year after a La Nina is a really crappy winter here: 96/97, 08/09, and of course, the mother of all crappy winters, 01/02.

-NAO FTW?

[jdrenken]

Latest weekly SST anomalies...

[The Snowman]

Looked at some ENSO plots in recent days, looks like a slight La Nina, more likely neutral winter.

[The Snowman]

Long Range CPC gives a hint Nov-Dec-Jan
Temperature anomalies

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[The Snowman]

Dec-Jan-Feb also shows warm spell in the GL into OV regions

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[Noreastericane]

-NAO FTW?

Maybe. But we had a -NAO last winter, and that didn't help at all.

Having a +PNA seems to be the essential ingredient.

[paletitsnow63]

JB has some interesting thoughts on the upcoming winter from a global perspective:

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=1833

[Fire/Rescue]

Wouldn't complain one bit; still, I'll wait till October before taking anything more seriously.

Agreed

[Fire/Rescue]

JB has some interesting thoughts on the upcoming winter from a global perspective:

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=1833

Just flipped thru JB's write up and thoughts, now can you break that down a little bit in more of a simple and understandable format. Meaning....what is he saying with regard to this coming winter?

Thanks

[paletitsnow63]

Just flipped thru JB's write up and thoughts, now can you break that down a little bit in more of a simple and understandable format. Meaning....what is he saying with regard to this coming winter?

Thanks

I don't think he has any detailed long range forecasts for specific areas. Looks like he feels that it will be a colder than normal winter globally and that there will be no el Nino.

[The Snowman]

After looking at all the maps and such, I think that a good thing to point out is that, into the late winter months, there is some building evidence of the jet stream possibly moving quite far north in the East US.
Can't post images (they're on my blog), but with a projected extremely below average section in Florida and warm up in a style that seems applicable to a jet stream, I would keep it on the table.

[The Snowman]

Just whipped up an image using the CFS, I only put in some pieces of data due to lack of confidence.

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[The Snowman]

CFS looks pretty neutral going into winter and even the summer.

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