Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

376 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Long Range Winter 2011/2012 Outlooks, Wrap Ups
stuffradio
post Mar 10 2011, 11:20 PM
Post #21




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,016
Joined: 12-September 08
From: SW BC, Canada
Member No.: 15,716





QUOTE(snowguy716 @ Mar 10 2011, 05:27 PM) *
In recent weeks, the subsurface water temperature anomalies in the Pacific have really warmed up and the warm pool has shifted east. In the past week, it now looks like that warm water will surface in the Niņo 3 area (though Niņo 3.4/4 still look to remain cool for the time being).

I'm sure people will be calling for El Niņo for winter 2011/12... but it is still too early to tell. While sea surface temps look to be warming in the tropical Pacific, the atmospheric dynamic of ENSO, the SOI, remains at record highs (indicating strong La Niņa conditions atmospherically).

This could go either way. The only good similar cases to what we have now are the 1970-1974, 1962-1965, and 1915-1917 periods.

I honestly have favored 1970-1974 for the Pacific despite the current warm AMO (which is why the U.S. impacts have not been the same... the warm AMO supporting a suppressed Atlantic jet (negative NAO)... hence why 2009/10 was colder in the east and warmer in the west than the unusual strong El Niņo of 1972/73).

If that were to play out similarly, we could expect 2011/12 to have ENSO neutral to weak La Niņa conditions as the atmosphere remains in La Niņa mode but the overabundance of warm subsurface water keeps the Niņo regions from staying cool. Once that warmer water has had a chance to surface and is recycled back westward again by stronger trade winds than normal... the La Niņa then restrengthens for 2012/13 before finally reverting to neutral/warm conditions.

We could also be in a similar position to the early/mid '60s when we had a rapid succession of flips in the Pacific with La Niņa in 1961/62 and 1962/63 followed by El Niņo in 1963/64, La Niņa in '65, and El Niņo again in '66. That would support a moderate El Niņo developing for next winter. The winter of 1965/66 was hardly typical for its impacts on the U.S.

You also have the 1949/50-1951/52 analogs... though this fit better into the 2007/08-2009/10 period. But it still had an El Niņo following a La Niņa. The El Niņo was weak and it was overpowered by both the cold PDO and warm AMO... so the west was cool while the east was warm.

We cannot discount 1915-1917. That period had a relatively weak solar variable as well as a volcanic component. After a succession of neutral to weak El Niņo conditions from 1911/12-1915/16, 1916/17 saw strong La Niņa conditions. That winter had persistently high SOI values that remained high all throughout 1917, leading to the record positive SOI values during the winter of 1917/18. That winter did not see particularly cold values in the tropical Pacific despite the strong SOI component. It's as if the ocean ran out of cold water to pool up. Might we see a winter like that next year? (I hope not.. the summer of 1917 saw brutal drought across much of the U.S. and then the winter was dry and cold for much of the nation).

After 1917/18 came a strong El Niņo that led to major famine in south Asia. The screwed up weather patterns caused by the El Niņo exacerbated the Spanish flu outbreak.
So in summary: It's a crapshoot at this point. The ocean is saying goodbye to La Niņa it seems.. .but the atmosphere is stubbornly keeping high pressure over Tahiti with torrential rains over Australia (as we've all heard about). All in all... we could be in for a heck of a summer/fall/winter. Or maybe things will be benign and we can save a bit on our grocery bills. (One can hope).


Interesting post either way, I just want a really mild Spring with short bouts of rain (not that we need anymore rain), followed by a nice toasty summer with some breaks in it. smile.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Mar 19 2011, 08:52 PM
Post #22




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,750
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





The Japanese are forecasting a return of La Nina.

Latest map for Sept-Nov


QUOTE
February 14, 2011 (notes updated February 15, 2011)
ENSO forecast: The current strong La Nina condition would decay in following boreal spring and summer seasons but would rebound in fall and persist up to early 2012. The revived one would show a La Nina of Modoki nature


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Mar 19 2011, 09:29 PM
Post #23




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,193
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Might as well post this in here too... Pacific Equator warming rapidly.

Look at the blues December 29th go to peaches March 9th.... At this pace we'll be in El Nino by next winter BUT... I dont think we'll get there...I'm thinking we will get to Neutral by Fall and then turn back down to a weak-moderate LaNina for the winter...



Attached File  LaNinaElNinob.jpg ( 84.85K ) Number of downloads: 3


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Mar 19 2011, 09:46 PM


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Mar 20 2011, 05:36 PM
Post #24







Guests








QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 19 2011, 10:29 PM) *
Might as well post this in here too... Pacific Equator warming rapidly.

Look at the blues December 29th go to peaches March 9th.... At this pace we'll be in El Nino by next winter BUT... I dont think we'll get there...I'm thinking we will get to Neutral by Fall and then turn back down to a weak-moderate LaNina for the winter...
Attached File  LaNinaElNinob.jpg ( 84.85K ) Number of downloads: 3



I think that we will be in a weak El Nino, by next winter, and that could possibly result in another winter that would have above-average snowfall in the Northeast, and the Mid Atlantic states, but time will tell, and we have a long road ahead of us.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post May 14 2011, 10:17 PM
Post #25




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,750
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





We have our first winter forecast out.

Weatheradvance.com



Their outlook from last year.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
kab2791
post May 14 2011, 10:25 PM
Post #26




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,766
Joined: 29-November 08
From: Mt. Pleasant, MI
Member No.: 16,278





Wouldn't complain one bit; still, I'll wait till October before taking anything more seriously.
QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 14 2011, 11:17 PM) *
We have our first winter forecast out.

Weatheradvance.com



Their outlook from last year.



--------------------
University of Detroit Mercy Math Minor 2009-2011
Central Michigan University Meteorology Major, GIS Minor


DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Noreastericane
post May 15 2011, 12:24 PM
Post #27




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 656
Joined: 2-February 10
From: Glen Burnie, MD
Member No.: 21,289





I'm not even gonna bother following next winter unless we somehow get a moderate or strong El Nino.

Every ENSO neutral year after a La Nina is a really crappy winter here: 96/97, 08/09, and of course, the mother of all crappy winters, 01/02.


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SnowMan11
post May 15 2011, 10:36 PM
Post #28




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,561
Joined: 27-February 08
From: Brooklyn,NY
Member No.: 14,017





QUOTE(Noreastericane @ May 15 2011, 01:24 PM) *
I'm not even gonna bother following next winter unless we somehow get a moderate or strong El Nino.

Every ENSO neutral year after a La Nina is a really crappy winter here: 96/97, 08/09, and of course, the mother of all crappy winters, 01/02.


-NAO FTW? wink.gif


--------------------
LETS GO METS
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post May 16 2011, 06:34 AM
Post #29




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,750
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





Latest weekly SST anomalies...



--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post May 16 2011, 07:14 AM
Post #30




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,846
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Chicago
Member No.: 24,567





Looked at some ENSO plots in recent days, looks like a slight La Nina, more likely neutral winter.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2013-2014 Winter
Total Snowfall: 67.5''
Winter Weather Advisories: 10
Winter Storm Watches: 2 (1 Lake Effect)
Winter Storm Warnings: 7 (2 Lake Effect)


Annual Snowfall
2012-2013: 37''

You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post May 16 2011, 07:17 AM
Post #31




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,846
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Chicago
Member No.: 24,567





Long Range CPC gives a hint Nov-Dec-Jan
Temperature anomalies



Attached File(s)
Attached File  m.07.t.gif ( 25.47K ) Number of downloads: 5
 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2013-2014 Winter
Total Snowfall: 67.5''
Winter Weather Advisories: 10
Winter Storm Watches: 2 (1 Lake Effect)
Winter Storm Warnings: 7 (2 Lake Effect)


Annual Snowfall
2012-2013: 37''

You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post May 16 2011, 07:24 AM
Post #32




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,846
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Chicago
Member No.: 24,567





Dec-Jan-Feb also shows warm spell in the GL into OV regions

Attached File(s)
Attached File  m.08.t.gif ( 26.22K ) Number of downloads: 7
 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2013-2014 Winter
Total Snowfall: 67.5''
Winter Weather Advisories: 10
Winter Storm Watches: 2 (1 Lake Effect)
Winter Storm Warnings: 7 (2 Lake Effect)


Annual Snowfall
2012-2013: 37''

You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Noreastericane
post May 16 2011, 08:28 AM
Post #33




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 656
Joined: 2-February 10
From: Glen Burnie, MD
Member No.: 21,289





QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ May 15 2011, 11:36 PM) *
-NAO FTW? wink.gif


Maybe. But we had a -NAO last winter, and that didn't help at all. rolleyes.gif

Having a +PNA seems to be the essential ingredient.


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
paletitsnow63
post May 16 2011, 09:39 AM
Post #34




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,373
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Denver, PA
Member No.: 16,714





JB has some interesting thoughts on the upcoming winter from a global perspective:

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=1833

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Fire/Rescue
post May 16 2011, 10:50 AM
Post #35




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,176
Joined: 4-January 10
From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





QUOTE(kab2791 @ May 14 2011, 11:25 PM) *
Wouldn't complain one bit; still, I'll wait till October before taking anything more seriously.

Agreed
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Fire/Rescue
post May 16 2011, 10:56 AM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,176
Joined: 4-January 10
From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ May 16 2011, 10:39 AM) *
JB has some interesting thoughts on the upcoming winter from a global perspective:

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=1833

Just flipped thru JB's write up and thoughts, now can you break that down a little bit in more of a simple and understandable format. Meaning....what is he saying with regard to this coming winter?

Thanks
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
paletitsnow63
post May 16 2011, 02:18 PM
Post #37




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,373
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Denver, PA
Member No.: 16,714





QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ May 16 2011, 11:56 AM) *
Just flipped thru JB's write up and thoughts, now can you break that down a little bit in more of a simple and understandable format. Meaning....what is he saying with regard to this coming winter?

Thanks

I don't think he has any detailed long range forecasts for specific areas. Looks like he feels that it will be a colder than normal winter globally and that there will be no el Nino.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post May 16 2011, 05:01 PM
Post #38




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,846
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Chicago
Member No.: 24,567





After looking at all the maps and such, I think that a good thing to point out is that, into the late winter months, there is some building evidence of the jet stream possibly moving quite far north in the East US.
Can't post images (they're on my blog), but with a projected extremely below average section in Florida and warm up in a style that seems applicable to a jet stream, I would keep it on the table.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2013-2014 Winter
Total Snowfall: 67.5''
Winter Weather Advisories: 10
Winter Storm Watches: 2 (1 Lake Effect)
Winter Storm Warnings: 7 (2 Lake Effect)


Annual Snowfall
2012-2013: 37''

You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post May 17 2011, 07:47 PM
Post #39




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,846
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Chicago
Member No.: 24,567





Just whipped up an image using the CFS, I only put in some pieces of data due to lack of confidence.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  WERTYQ.jpg ( 101.75K ) Number of downloads: 5
 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2013-2014 Winter
Total Snowfall: 67.5''
Winter Weather Advisories: 10
Winter Storm Watches: 2 (1 Lake Effect)
Winter Storm Warnings: 7 (2 Lake Effect)


Annual Snowfall
2012-2013: 37''

You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post May 17 2011, 08:03 PM
Post #40




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,846
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Chicago
Member No.: 24,567





CFS looks pretty neutral going into winter and even the summer.

Attached File(s)
Attached File  glbT2mSea.gif ( 37.58K ) Number of downloads: 9
 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2013-2014 Winter
Total Snowfall: 67.5''
Winter Weather Advisories: 10
Winter Storm Watches: 2 (1 Lake Effect)
Winter Storm Warnings: 7 (2 Lake Effect)


Annual Snowfall
2012-2013: 37''

You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

376 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 20th April 2014 - 03:54 PM