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> Long Range Winter 2011/2012 Outlooks, Wrap Ups
Fire/Rescue
post May 18 2011, 06:44 AM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ May 16 2011, 03:18 PM) *
I don't think he has any detailed long range forecasts for specific areas. Looks like he feels that it will be a colder than normal winter globally and that there will be no el Nino.

Gotcha, and as someone has already alluded to with regard to preliminary (Winter projections) they are just that (Preliminary) and most will probably take any projections this far out with a grain of salt and not begin to take them seriosly until we get into atleat August and September.
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The Snowman
post Jun 11 2011, 07:49 PM
Post #42




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Enso CFS estimate has been going into the very beginning of a short La Nina period.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  nino34SSTSea.gif ( 14.56K ) Number of downloads: 2
 


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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ChiBlackhawksFan
post Jun 11 2011, 09:46 PM
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Snowman,

I too live in Chicago. Does that show an earlier fall for us?


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Chicago Blackhawks -- One Goal
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Removed_Member_Garrett_*
post Jun 12 2011, 07:37 AM
Post #44







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QUOTE(ChiBlackhawksFan @ Jun 11 2011, 10:46 PM) *
Snowman,

I too live in Chicago. Does that show an earlier fall for us?


That can depend on where the La Nina (if there is another one) sets up. If it hugs the west coast of central and south america (meaning it's "east-based") then it acts similarly to a west-based El Nino. This is similar to what happened last winter where no one expected the south to get a lot of snow and some places such as where I live in VA saw 200% of their average.
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Jun 13 2011, 04:03 PM
Post #45







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This is the CPC's schedule for climate outlooks for this year:



Long-Lead Forecast Release Schedule for 2011


Fcst # Release Date Inclusive Seasons Fcst Month
1/2011 16 Dec 2010 JFM 2011 - JFM 2012 Jan 2011
2 20 Jan 2011 FMA 2011 - FMA 2012 Feb 2011
3 17 Feb 2011 MAM 2011 - MAM 2012 Mar 2011
4 17 Mar 2011 AMJ 2011 - AMJ 2012 Apr 2011
5 21 Apr 2011 MJJ 2011 - MJJ 2012 May 2011
6 19 May 2011 JJA 2011 - JJA 2012 Jun 2011
7 16 Jun 2011 JAS 2011 - JAS 2012 Jul 2011
8 21 Jul 2011 ASO 2011 - ASO 2012 Aug 2011
9 18 Aug 2011 SON 2011 - SON 2012 Sep 2011
10 15 Sep 2011 OND 2011 - OND 2012 Oct 2011
11 20 Oct 2011 NDJ 2011 - NDJ 2012 Nov 2011
12 17 Nov 2011 DJF 2011 - DJF 2012 Dec 2011
1/2012 15 Dec 2011 JFM 2012 - JFM 2013 Jan 2012
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Jun 13 2011, 04:08 PM
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This is the most up to date climate outlook, it was released on May 14, 2011




CODE
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830AM EDT THURSDAY MAY 19 2011

SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS

THE MAIN FACTORS WHICH USUALLY INFLUENCE THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK INCLUDE:
1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH COMPRISE EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION OR ENSO.
IMPACTS OF THESE EVENTS ARE SUMMARIZED BY SEPARATING 3-MONTH OBSERVATIONS FROM
3 OR MORE DECADES INTO EL NINO, NEUTRAL, AND LA NINA SETS, AVERAGING EACH
SEPARATELY, AND THEN COMPUTING ANOMALIES. THESE ARE CALLED "ENSO COMPOSITES",
AND ARE USED TO SUBJECTIVELY MODIFY THE FORECAST.
2) TRENDS - APPROXIMATED BY THE OCN TOOL AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST
RECENT 10-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR 15-YEAR MEAN OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN
LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD (NOW 1981-2010).
3) THE TROPICAL 30-60 DAY OSCILLATION - SOMETIMES CALLED MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION (MJO) - AFFECTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN SEASONS.
4) THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) AND THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA)
PATTERNS - WHICH AFFECT THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN ESPECIALLY DURING THE
COLD SEASONS. THESE PHENOMENA ARE CURRENTLY KNOWN TO BE PREDICTABLE ONLY OVER A
WEEK OR SO.
5) THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) - AN ENSO-LIKE PATTERN OF CLIMATE
VARIABILITY AFFECTING BOTH THE TROPICS AND THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICAN
REGIONS, BUT WHICH VARIES ON A MUCH LONGER TIME-SCALE THAN ENSO.
6) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE
COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. THESE FACTORS TEND TO PERSIST FOR LONG PERIODS
AND ACT AS A KIND OF MEMORY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.
7) STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), SCREENING
MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (SMLR), CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE (CA) AND ENSEMBLE CCA
(ECCA).
8) DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS - INCLUDING THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM
(CFS). AN UPGRADED PARALLEL VERSION OF THE CFS (CFSV2) BECAME OPERATIONAL IN
MARCH 2011. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT BOTH CFS VERSIONS WILL BE RUN IN PARALLEL
UNTIL AT LEAST JUNE 2011.
9) CONSOLIDATION (CON) - AN OBJECTIVE, SKILL WEIGHTED COMBINATION OF THE OCN,
CCA, SMLR, ECCA, AND CFS FORECASTS IS USED AS A FIRST GUESS IN PREPARING THE
FORECAST MAPS. THIS TECHNIQUE MAKES OPTIMUM USE OF THE KNOWN SKILL OF OUR
FORECAST TOOLS.

LA NINA CONDITIONS FURTHER WEAKENED IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN ARE BELOW AVERAGE FROM
AROUND 160E TO NEAR 150W, AND SST ANOMALIES BELOW -0.5C HAVE BEEN PUSHED AWAY
FROM THE EQUATOR INTO BOTH HEMISPHERES. SUBSURFACE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE
HAVE STRONGLY DIMINISHED. UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENSO STATE BEYOND SPRING 2011 IS
HIGH. THE EFFECT OF LA NINA, IF ANY, WILL BE INDIRECT. THE SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE U.S. CLEARLY REFLECT THE LA NINA WINTER WE JUST
HAD.

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR JJA 2011 INDICATES PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FROM MINNESOTA TO THE OHIO VALLEY, WHILE
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST.

THE SEASONAL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR JJA 2011 CALLS FOR ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS FAR
EAST AS CENTRAL MONTANA.

IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE LIKELIHOODS OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES, EQUAL
CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
ARE INDICATED.

BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PRED.../TOOLS/BRIEFING

CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS

NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED IN AMPLITUDE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TO
THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST DURING THE LAST 2 MONTHS AND ARE NOW SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THE SUBSURFACE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT MEASURED BY THE WATER TEMPERATURE IS BELOW
NORMAL TO A DEPTH OF 50 TO 100 METERS FROM APPROXIMATELY THE DATE LINE TO 140W,
BUT MUCH LESS SO THAN 1 MONTH AGO. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL
FROM THE SURFACE TO A DEPTH OF ABOUT 125 METERS EAST OF ABOUT 115W. ABOVE
NORMAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE WEST PACIFIC HAS PERSISTED WITH POSITIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OCCASIONALLY RISING TOWARDS THE SURFACE EAST OF 140W.
TOTAL EQUATORIAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL BETWEEN 180 AND
100 W IS NOW POSITIVE, ON AVERAGE.

AS OF MID-MAY, THE LARGE SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OVER THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC OCEAN IS ONLY VAGUELY CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA CONDITIONS. CONVECTION IS
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED OVER PARTS OF THE MARITIME CONTINENT NEAR THE EQUATOR. LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND AWAITING THE IMMINENT IMPACT OF AN MJO EVENT.

OVERALL, THESE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A
WEAKENING OR NEARLY DISSIPATED LA NINA. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR CERTAIN EFFECTS
TO LAG.

THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS IS THE FIRST ONE TO USE THE 1981-2010 CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. DECADAL TRENDS, PREVIOUSLY ASSESSED RELATIVE TO THE 1971-2000 PERIOD,
HAVE CHANGED CONSIDERABLY NOW THAT WE USE 1981-2010.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS

STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES IN THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC TO DIMINISH SUCH THAT ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY JUNE 2011. THE CPC CONSOLIDATION OF THE CFS, CONSTRUCTED ANALOG, MARKOV
MODEL AND CCA NINO 3.4 FORECASTS INDICATES AN ANOMALY CLOSE TO ZERO DURING
JJA2011. THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION FORECAST INDICATES THAT NINO 3.4 SST
ANOMALIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE IN THE ENSO NEUTRAL RANGE (ANOMALIES OF FROM
-0.5 TO +0.5 C) IN THE LATE SUMMER, FALL AND NEXT WINTER. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF
MODELS BOTH AT NCEP AND ELSEWHERE PREDICTING EITHER A WEAK LA NINA, ENSO
NEUTRAL OR EVEN WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS, THEREFORE THE UNCERTAINTY IS
CONSIDERABLE REGARDING THE ENSO STATE IN AUTUMN AND NEXT WINTER, EXCEPT THAT A
STRONG EVENT IS NOT LIKELY. IN OUR U.S. FORECAST WE ASSUMED NEUTRAL CONDITIONS.

PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS

THE OUTLOOKS FOR JJA 2011 ONWARD WERE PRIMARILY BASED ON THE SKILL-WEIGHTED
CONSOLIDATION (CON) FORECASTS, AND THE CFS DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE CONSOLIDATION
INCLUDES SMLR, CCA, OCN, ECCA AND CFS. THE CAS TOOL PLAYED A ROLE ONLY FOR THE
FIRST LEAD.


PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - JJA 2011 TO JJA 2012

TEMPERATURE

FOR JJA 2011 PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FROM
MINNESOTA TO THE OHIO VALLEY. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN PERSISTS, WITH REDUCED COVERAGE, INTO JAS AND ASO. SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS WOULD ENFORCE SUCH A SET-UP AND MANY TOOLS PICK UP ON THIS. THE
FORECAST OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
TRENDS, EVEN IF TRENDS ARE WEAKER NOW THAT WE USE 1981-2010 NORMALS.

IN THE LATER LEADS, THE LONGER-TERM TRENDS INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EITHER THE NORTHEAST AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION OR SOME
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN THE LATER LEADS FOR PARTS OF ALASKA, BUT ONLY OUT TO NDJ.

ON THE WHOLE, COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN BEFORE BECAUSE THE GENERAL WARMING
TREND HAS, FOR THE MOMENT AT LEAST, BECOME PART OF THE NEW NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR JJA AND JAS 2011 CALLS FOR ENHANCED PROBABILITIES
FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL
MONTANA. BY USING 1981-2010 NORMALS WE HAVE LOST SOME TREND FEATURES WE WOULD
INDICATE PREVIOUSLY, WHEN 1971-2000 WAS THE BASE PERIOD, SUCH AS PROBABILITIES
FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEAST IN JJA 2011.

TRENDS INDICATE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN FLORIDA,
ALONG PARTS OF THE EAST COAST AND IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING LATE SUMMER AND
EARLY AUTUMN. MOST OF THE OUTLOOKS BEYOND SON 2011 SHOW EQUAL CHANCES (EC)
BECAUSE OF A LACK OF CLIMATE SIGNALS, EXCEPT FOR ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LONG TERM TRENDS IN JFM AND FMA
2012.

FORECASTER: HUUG VAN DEN DOOL

THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.

FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP:/WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/DISC.HTML
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SOILMST/FORECASTS.HTML (USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR
VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON JUN 16 2011


1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 19, 2011
FORECAST RELEASE.

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frankie989
post Jun 15 2011, 12:45 AM
Post #47




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My Winter forecast for winter 2011/12 will be a lot of snow and it will be stormier than normal for all of the eastern united states including the coastal areas and Boston will get a lot of snow so is New York City and Washington DC will get a lot of snow this winter. including Atlantic Canada and Sydney Nova Scotia will get 900cm of snow for the whole winter and we will get 12 Major Blizzard snowstorms in the whole winter of 2011/12 and i am ready for that and Maine, Mass, New York, New Jersey, DC, Maryland, and New Brunswick Canada, and Sydney Nova Scotia will get 3 Major Blizzards in December 2011, January, February and March 2012 i am prepared for that. The winter forecast for 2011/12 will be stormier than normal for the whole Eastern United States and Atlantic Canada and Sydney Nova Scotia will be the Snowiest for the winter 2011/12.

This post has been edited by frankie989: Jun 15 2011, 12:48 AM
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stuffradio
post Jun 15 2011, 12:42 AM
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You didn't mention the west coast or how much we'll get or how you figured out your forecast. sad.gif
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frankie989
post Jun 15 2011, 12:50 AM
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For the West Coast of the United States California Will have a lot of rain and Vancouver Canada and Victoria Canada will have a lot of snow this winter as well and the whole west coast of united states will be stormier than normal and All of the Central United States will be bitter cold and so is central Canada too for the winter 2011/12. Vancouver will get a lot of snow this winter coming up as well.

This post has been edited by frankie989: Jun 15 2011, 12:52 AM
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Niyologist
post Jun 15 2011, 12:51 AM
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There's a thread for this already. dry.gif
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Torontoweather
post Jun 15 2011, 08:38 AM
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Was this a joke?...
If not, there is absolutely no reasoning, at least evident to the rest of us, behind such a forecast.
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Jun 15 2011, 10:18 AM
Post #52







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We already have a thread for this topic.
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Jun 15 2011, 10:32 AM
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Does anyone know if the La Nina for next winter will be east based, or will it be west based?
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frankie989
post Jun 15 2011, 01:01 PM
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I am Very Serious Sydney Nova Scotia Canada and rest of the Atlantic Canada will get a lot of snow this winter coming up and it will have 3 major Blizzards in December 3 in January, 3 in February and 3 in March is Major Blizzards and this winter will be Very Nasty for Sydney Nova Scotia Canada in winter 2011/12 that is my Final Prediction.
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Torontoweather
post Jun 15 2011, 04:04 PM
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QUOTE(frankie989 @ Jun 15 2011, 02:01 PM) *
I am Very Serious Sydney Nova Scotia Canada and rest of the Atlantic Canada will get a lot of snow this winter coming up and it will have 3 major Blizzards in December 3 in January, 3 in February and 3 in March is Major Blizzards and this winter will be Very Nasty for Sydney Nova Scotia Canada in winter 2011/12 that is my Final Prediction.


WHY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?????????????
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Torontoweather
post Jun 15 2011, 04:07 PM
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QUOTE(NYsnowlover @ Jun 15 2011, 11:32 AM) *
Does anyone know if the La Nina for next winter will be east based, or will it be west based?


Too early to tell.
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Jun 15 2011, 04:48 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Jun 15 2011, 05:07 PM) *
Too early to tell.



That was kind of the type of answer that I was expecting to hear.

I have not had much time to look over this topic to begin with, but i am now staring to look at more and more in the next few weeks.
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Niyologist
post Jun 15 2011, 10:19 PM
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QUOTE(frankie989 @ Jun 15 2011, 02:01 PM) *
I am Very Serious Sydney Nova Scotia Canada and rest of the Atlantic Canada will get a lot of snow this winter coming up and it will have 3 major Blizzards in December 3 in January, 3 in February and 3 in March is Major Blizzards and this winter will be Very Nasty for Sydney Nova Scotia Canada in winter 2011/12 that is my Final Prediction.


I know that's your prediction, but you must explain why. Just saying it isn't verifying your reasoning. I need to see some evidence as of why. Okay? wink.gif
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frankie989
post Jun 16 2011, 10:24 PM
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My Winter 2011/12 forecast for Atlantic Canada including Sydney Nova Scotia will be much snowier and stormier than normal and Sydney Nova Scotia is getting 15 major blizzards for winter 2011/12 and this winter coming up will be much stormier than normal especially Sydney Nova Scotia. Sydney Nova Scotia will get 15 Major blizzards for Winter of the year 2011/12 and this Winter coming up will be way stormier than normal for the whole Atlantic Canada Especially Sydney Nova Scotia and Sydney Nova Scotia will get 15 Major Blizzards for Winter 2011/12.

This post has been edited by frankie989: Jun 16 2011, 10:27 PM
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Niyologist
post Jun 16 2011, 10:30 PM
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QUOTE(frankie989 @ Jun 16 2011, 11:24 PM) *
My Winter 2011/12 forecast for Atlantic Canada including Sydney Nova Scotia will be much snowier and stormier than normal and Sydney Nova Scotia is getting 15 major blizzards for winter 2011/12 and this winter coming up will be much stormier than normal especially Sydney Nova Scotia. Sydney Nova Scotia will get 15 Major blizzards for Winter of the year 2011/12 and this Winter coming up will be way stormier than normal for the whole Atlantic Canada Especially Sydney Nova Scotia and Sydney Nova Scotia will get 15 Major Blizzards for Winter 2011/12.



Still not stating why. dry.gif
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