Atlantic Hurricane Season 2011, All Seasonal Forecasts & Updates Here Options

[jdrenken]

JB has already issued his preliminary outlook for pro users...

FIRST IDEA ON NEXT HURRICANE SEASON:

Comment on 2011 season:

I am already working on next year. The second year off the El Nino (remember we had the Nino in '09-'10... so this was year one and has the following analog seasons to compare to: 1996, 1999, 2008) is what I am looking most closely at. So we have that base, most prominently 1999 and 2008. Already, the evolution of the pattern and understanding of it is setting the stage for next year. So I have the base to form the forecast and here in early November, I will let you in on it. Total storms: 13-15; hurricanes: 8-10; major hurricanes: 4-5 Impact on U.S. coast: 6 storms dealing at least tropical storm conditions, three or four of these hurricanes, one, perhaps two major hurricanes.

Less storms, still an active season overall, with higher-than-normal intensity for the Atlantic and a higher-than-normal impact rating on the U.S. coast. It is not trying to hype something, it is what the numbers are giving me. An update will come in March.

I expect the La Nina to continue well into next year and fade next winter or early 2012. This puts 1999 and 2008 as the two strongest recent analogs from this viewpoint, with 1996 as second.

The idea is that this is similar to the 95, 96, 98-99, 07, 08 couplets.

ciao for now ***

I also suggest that if you have a FB account that you join JB's Fan Page!

[Phased Vort]

JB has already issued his preliminary outlook for pro users...
I also suggest that if you have a FB account that you join JB's Fan Page!

You already did what I was thinking of doing.

I like his early thoughts. Some that I would agree too and forecast if I decided to do a forecast or outlook.

[kab2791]

You already did what I was thinking of doing.

I like his early thoughts. Some that I would agree too and forecast if I decided to do a forecast or outlook.

Considering his thoughts I cannot say I disagree with JB's reasoning.

[Removed_Member_StormTopia.com_*]

Hmm. I saw his outlook on the pro site. Appears to be good reasoning. Furthermore, I don't consider his reason for why he busted this season as an exuse at all.

[futureweatherman...]

Furthermore, I don't consider his reason for why he busted this season as an exuse at all.

Which was?

[jdrenken]

Which was?

Regarding the number of land-falling hurricanes. Granted, there seems to be some mis-communication at Accuweather regarding his landfall and impact definitions.

[futureweatherman...]

Which was?

Regarding the number of land-falling hurricanes. Granted, there seems to be some mis-communication at Accuweather regarding his landfall and impact definitions.

I meant the reason. Where StormTopia said that he didn't agree with his reason for why he busted was an excuse.

[kab2791]

A lot pf potential this season...

On December 8, 2010, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2011 season, predicting well above-average activity with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. As well, the team expected an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) value of approximately 165, citing that El Niņo conditions were unlikely to develop by the start of the season. Lastly, the team noted a higher chance for storms to make landfall in the United States than in 2010.[2] In addition, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium that comprises experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued an extended-range forecast a few days prior to that of CSU, with similar estimates for the year. In its report, TSR noted that tropical cyclone activity could be about 40% above the 1950–2010 average, with 15.6 (ą4.3) tropical storms, 8.4 (ą3.0) hurricanes, and 4.0 (ą1.7) major hurricanes anticipated, and a cumulative ACE index of 141 (ą58).[4]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Atlantic_hurricane_season

TSR December 6, 2010
NS:11–20
H: 5–11
MH: 2–6

CSU December 8, 2010
NS: 17
H: 9
MH: 5

[Fire/Rescue]

NO matter what the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has in store for us this year, I am just hoping there are no systems flirting with the "East Coast" come the end of September....as my family and I will be on vacation down on the (Outer Banks) of North Carolina for 10 days.

[NYCSuburbs]

I haven't started looking at the hurricane season yet and likely won't be doing so in more depth until at least late April/May, but from what I'm reading, it looks like there might be another active hurricane season in store... hopefully storms stay away from the East Coast this year, we had several close calls last year, especially Earl, fortunately none of them came close enough to cause widespread direct impact (heavy rain, strong winds) away from the coast into I-95.

[NYCSuburbs]

By the way, check out the subtropical cyclone that's off the coast of Brazil. Apparently it's been officially named "Subtropical Storm Arani" by Brazil (Source). Very interesting stuff...



This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Mar 16 2011, 05:57 PM

[Fire/Rescue]

By the way, check out the subtropical cyclone that's off the coast of Brazil. Apparently it's been officially named "Subtropical Storm Arani" by Brazil (Source). Very interesting stuff...

WOW....is it moving towards the shorline, or remaining out at sea only to effect the boaters and fish?

[Nicole]

NO matter what the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has in store for us this year, I am just hoping there are no systems flirting with the "East Coast" come the end of September....as my family and I will be on vacation down on the (Outer Banks) of North Carolina for 10 days.

You and me both.. I'm getting married at the end of September

[MAC292OH10]

this has been on the last 4 cycles of the GFS although i'll admit its very unlikely this will happen this soon and pretty sure this is the first tropical cyclone(northern hemisphere) to show up on a forecast model thus far. As per the previous 2 yrs the GFS is/will likely start sniffing the first Invest(or potential for Invest),typically it goes through cycles leading up to the first invest(typically Caribbean IE: central America) the GFS will usually flip flop the system between the EPAC and Caribbean(typically showing development form the same energy on either side or vice versa)appear and disappear on the 168++ time frame for about 3-4 weeks leading into the potential as negative MJO phase comes into play...obviously right now SAL/dry air/shear is pretty well embedded into the tropical regions even more so with fropas still pushing pretty far south...and yeah it its in the EPAC initally but , like mentioned weve seen the GFS flip flop basin and it typically ends up developing in the Carribbean, nothing to start a thread about , but interesting to see the GFS is right on time(remember last yr early invest(s) were before the GFS upgrade)...

12Z GFS @180hr







200hpa anomalies

GFS


CFS


This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Apr 14 2011, 01:30 PM

[Phased Vort]

this has been on the last 4 cycles of the GFS although i'll admit its very unlikely this will happen this soon and pretty sure this is the first tropical cyclone(northern hemisphere) to show up on a forecast model thus far. As per the previous 2 yrs the GFS is/will likely start sniffing the first Invest(or potential for Invest),typically it goes through cycles leading up to the first invest(typically Caribbean IE: central America) the GFS will usually flip flop the system between the EPAC and Caribbean(typically showing development form the same energy on either side or vice versa)appear and disappear on the 168++ time frame for about 3-4 weeks leading into the potential as negative MJO phase comes into play...obviously right now SAL/dry air/shear is pretty well embedded into the tropical regions even more so with fropas still pushing pretty far south...and yeah it its in the EPAC initally but , like mentioned weve seen the GFS flip flop basin and it typically ends up developing in the Carribbean, nothing to start a thread about , but interesting to see the GFS is right on time(remember last yr early invest(s) were before the GFS upgrade)...

12Z GFS @180hr







200hpa anomalies

GFS


CFS

Itīs starting...


I will be working on creating the seasonal tropical threads for each Atlantic region come early May, so we can continue our tradition and keep the nice coherent and organized threads.

[MAC292OH10]

here is what looks to be a possible sub tropical system on the NAM & Euro

6Z NAM @84hr




ECMWF @ 144hr



GGEM/CMC @144hr...

[hurricanehunter]

Should be pretty interesting for the Bahamas down the line. This could back southwest and affect them.

[Removed_Member_Doorman_*]

The Potential for Abrupt Change
in the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation

http://downloads.climatescience.gov/sap/sa...-report-ch4.pdf


[attachment=130576:MOC.png]

[MAC292OH10]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
453 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

THE 00Z CANADIANS SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL-LIKE CYCLONE OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS LATE IN THE PERIOD WAS NOT BELIEVED AT THE CURRENT TIME.
WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN A CRESCENT
AROUND THE LOWS EASTERN AND NORTHERN SIDES /TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS/...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEAST/ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD FORCE THE
SYSTEM TO SHEAR APART SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW...AS IMPLIED BY THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

[hckyplayer8]

Wunderground has an 91L on their map. NHC does not.