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> Atlantic Hurricane Season 2011, All Seasonal Forecasts & Updates Here
jdrenken
post Nov 5 2010, 06:39 AM
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JB has already issued his preliminary outlook for pro users...

QUOTE
FIRST IDEA ON NEXT HURRICANE SEASON:

Comment on 2011 season:

I am already working on next year. The second year off the El Nino (remember we had the Nino in '09-'10... so this was year one and has the following analog seasons to compare to: 1996, 1999, 2008) is what I am looking most closely at. So we have that base, most prominently 1999 and 2008. Already, the evolution of the pattern and understanding of it is setting the stage for next year. So I have the base to form the forecast and here in early November, I will let you in on it. Total storms: 13-15; hurricanes: 8-10; major hurricanes: 4-5 Impact on U.S. coast: 6 storms dealing at least tropical storm conditions, three or four of these hurricanes, one, perhaps two major hurricanes.

Less storms, still an active season overall, with higher-than-normal intensity for the Atlantic and a higher-than-normal impact rating on the U.S. coast. It is not trying to hype something, it is what the numbers are giving me. An update will come in March.

I expect the La Nina to continue well into next year and fade next winter or early 2012. This puts 1999 and 2008 as the two strongest recent analogs from this viewpoint, with 1996 as second.

The idea is that this is similar to the 95, 96, 98-99, 07, 08 couplets.

ciao for now ***


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Phased Vort
post Nov 5 2010, 09:37 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 5 2010, 06:39 AM) *
JB has already issued his preliminary outlook for pro users...
I also suggest that if you have a FB account that you join JB's Fan Page!



You already did what I was thinking of doing.

I like his early thoughts. Some that I would agree too and forecast if I decided to do a forecast or outlook.


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kab2791
post Nov 5 2010, 11:37 AM
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QUOTE(WhitePlainsNYBlizzard @ Nov 5 2010, 10:37 AM) *
You already did what I was thinking of doing.

I like his early thoughts. Some that I would agree too and forecast if I decided to do a forecast or outlook.

Considering his thoughts I cannot say I disagree with JB's reasoning.


--------------------
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DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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Removed_Member_StormTopia.com_*
post Nov 7 2010, 04:15 PM
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Hmm. I saw his outlook on the pro site. Appears to be good reasoning. Furthermore, I don't consider his reason for why he busted this season as an exuse at all.
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futureweatherman...
post Nov 7 2010, 04:20 PM
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QUOTE(StormTopia.com @ Nov 7 2010, 04:15 PM) *
Furthermore, I don't consider his reason for why he busted this season as an exuse at all.

Which was?


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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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jdrenken
post Nov 7 2010, 04:54 PM
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QUOTE(futureweatherman12 @ Nov 7 2010, 03:20 PM) *
Which was?


Regarding the number of land-falling hurricanes. Granted, there seems to be some mis-communication at Accuweather regarding his landfall and impact definitions.


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QUOTE
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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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futureweatherman...
post Nov 9 2010, 04:17 PM
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QUOTE(futureweatherman12 @ Nov 7 2010, 04:20 PM) *
Which was?

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 7 2010, 04:54 PM) *
Regarding the number of land-falling hurricanes. Granted, there seems to be some mis-communication at Accuweather regarding his landfall and impact definitions.

I meant the reason. Where StormTopia said that he didn't agree with his reason for why he busted was an excuse.


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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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kab2791
post Mar 14 2011, 08:53 PM
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A lot pf potential this season...

QUOTE
On December 8, 2010, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2011 season, predicting well above-average activity with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. As well, the team expected an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) value of approximately 165, citing that El Niño conditions were unlikely to develop by the start of the season. Lastly, the team noted a higher chance for storms to make landfall in the United States than in 2010.[2] In addition, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium that comprises experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued an extended-range forecast a few days prior to that of CSU, with similar estimates for the year. In its report, TSR noted that tropical cyclone activity could be about 40% above the 1950–2010 average, with 15.6 (±4.3) tropical storms, 8.4 (±3.0) hurricanes, and 4.0 (±1.7) major hurricanes anticipated, and a cumulative ACE index of 141 (±58).[4]


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Atlantic_hurricane_season

TSR December 6, 2010
NS:11–20
H: 5–11
MH: 2–6

CSU December 8, 2010
NS: 17
H: 9
MH: 5


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DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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Fire/Rescue
post Mar 15 2011, 09:52 PM
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NO matter what the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has in store for us this year, I am just hoping there are no systems flirting with the "East Coast" come the end of September....as my family and I will be on vacation down on the (Outer Banks) of North Carolina for 10 days.
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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 16 2011, 05:47 PM
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I haven't started looking at the hurricane season yet and likely won't be doing so in more depth until at least late April/May, but from what I'm reading, it looks like there might be another active hurricane season in store... hopefully storms stay away from the East Coast this year, we had several close calls last year, especially Earl, fortunately none of them came close enough to cause widespread direct impact (heavy rain, strong winds) away from the coast into I-95.
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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 16 2011, 05:59 PM
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By the way, check out the subtropical cyclone that's off the coast of Brazil. Apparently it's been officially named "Subtropical Storm Arani" by Brazil (Source). Very interesting stuff...

Attached Image

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Mar 16 2011, 05:57 PM
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Fire/Rescue
post Mar 18 2011, 10:56 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Mar 16 2011, 06:59 PM) *
By the way, check out the subtropical cyclone that's off the coast of Brazil. Apparently it's been officially named "Subtropical Storm Arani" by Brazil (Source). Very interesting stuff...

Attached Image

WOW....is it moving towards the shorline, or remaining out at sea only to effect the boaters and fish?
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Nicole
post Mar 24 2011, 08:22 AM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Mar 15 2011, 09:52 PM) *
NO matter what the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has in store for us this year, I am just hoping there are no systems flirting with the "East Coast" come the end of September....as my family and I will be on vacation down on the (Outer Banks) of North Carolina for 10 days.


You and me both.. I'm getting married at the end of September


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MAC292OH10
post Apr 14 2011, 01:23 PM
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this has been on the last 4 cycles of the GFS although i'll admit its very unlikely this will happen this soon and pretty sure this is the first tropical cyclone(northern hemisphere) to show up on a forecast model thus far. As per the previous 2 yrs the GFS is/will likely start sniffing the first Invest(or potential for Invest),typically it goes through cycles leading up to the first invest(typically Caribbean IE: central America) the GFS will usually flip flop the system between the EPAC and Caribbean(typically showing development form the same energy on either side or vice versa)appear and disappear on the 168++ time frame for about 3-4 weeks leading into the potential as negative MJO phase comes into play...obviously right now SAL/dry air/shear is pretty well embedded into the tropical regions even more so with fropas still pushing pretty far south...and yeah it its in the EPAC initally but , like mentioned weve seen the GFS flip flop basin and it typically ends up developing in the Carribbean, nothing to start a thread about , but interesting to see the GFS is right on time(remember last yr early invest(s) were before the GFS upgrade)...

12Z GFS @180hr


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200hpa anomalies

GFS
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CFS
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This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Apr 14 2011, 01:30 PM
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Phased Vort
post Apr 14 2011, 06:48 PM
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QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ Apr 14 2011, 01:23 PM) *
this has been on the last 4 cycles of the GFS although i'll admit its very unlikely this will happen this soon and pretty sure this is the first tropical cyclone(northern hemisphere) to show up on a forecast model thus far. As per the previous 2 yrs the GFS is/will likely start sniffing the first Invest(or potential for Invest),typically it goes through cycles leading up to the first invest(typically Caribbean IE: central America) the GFS will usually flip flop the system between the EPAC and Caribbean(typically showing development form the same energy on either side or vice versa)appear and disappear on the 168++ time frame for about 3-4 weeks leading into the potential as negative MJO phase comes into play...obviously right now SAL/dry air/shear is pretty well embedded into the tropical regions even more so with fropas still pushing pretty far south...and yeah it its in the EPAC initally but , like mentioned weve seen the GFS flip flop basin and it typically ends up developing in the Carribbean, nothing to start a thread about , but interesting to see the GFS is right on time(remember last yr early invest(s) were before the GFS upgrade)...

12Z GFS @180hr


Attached Image



Attached Image


200hpa anomalies

GFS
Attached Image

CFS
Attached Image



It´s starting...


I will be working on creating the seasonal tropical threads for each Atlantic region come early May, so we can continue our tradition and keep the nice coherent and organized threads.


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MAC292OH10
post Apr 18 2011, 05:11 AM
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here is what looks to be a possible sub tropical system on the NAM & Euro

6Z NAM @84hr
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ECMWF @ 144hr
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GGEM/CMC @144hr... laugh.gif rolleyes.gif
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hurricanehunter
post Apr 19 2011, 01:24 PM
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Should be pretty interesting for the Bahamas down the line. This could back southwest and affect them.
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Removed_Member_Doorman_*
post Apr 19 2011, 07:41 PM
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The Potential for Abrupt Change
in the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation


http://downloads.climatescience.gov/sap/sa...-report-ch4.pdf


[attachment=130576:MOC.png]
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MAC292OH10
post Apr 20 2011, 08:24 AM
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QUOTE
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
453 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

THE 00Z CANADIANS SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL-LIKE CYCLONE OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS LATE IN THE PERIOD WAS NOT BELIEVED AT THE CURRENT TIME.
WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN A CRESCENT
AROUND THE LOWS EASTERN AND NORTHERN SIDES /TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS/...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEAST/ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD FORCE THE
SYSTEM TO SHEAR APART SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW...AS IMPLIED BY THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
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hckyplayer8
post Apr 20 2011, 02:11 PM
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Wunderground has an 91L on their map. NHC does not.


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