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> Atlantic Hurricane Season 2011, All Seasonal Forecasts & Updates Here
Superstorm93
post Apr 20 2011, 02:48 PM
Post #21




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QUOTE(hckyplayer8 @ Apr 20 2011, 03:11 PM) *
Wunderground has an 91L on their map. NHC does not.


NHC does not put invests up on their page.

Can one of the mods create a thread?

We do have 91L,



BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201104201859
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201935
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY...
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

This post has been edited by Superstorm93: Apr 20 2011, 02:46 PM


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east coast storm
post Apr 20 2011, 03:26 PM
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QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Apr 20 2011, 03:48 PM) *
NHC does not put invests up on their page.

Can one of the mods create a thread?

We do have 91L,
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201104201859
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201935
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY...
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

That cloud area 400 miles se of Bermuda looks interesting. As you know, a tropical
storm formed near Bermuda on Easter Sunday a number of years back, so its
not unheard of for a tropical system to form this early.
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Superstorm93
post Apr 20 2011, 03:45 PM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ Apr 20 2011, 04:26 PM) *
That cloud area 400 miles se of Bermuda looks interesting. As you know, a tropical
storm formed near Bermuda on Easter Sunday a number of years back, so its
not unheard of for a tropical system to form this early.


Yeah, Ana way back in 2003.

I believe its the only April storm.



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jdrenken
post Apr 20 2011, 07:00 PM
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QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Apr 20 2011, 02:48 PM) *
NHC does not put invests up on their page.

Can one of the mods create a thread?


If you have the ATCF information or any other verified information...go ahead and post yourself. We aren't that bad. laugh.gif


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east coast storm
post Apr 20 2011, 07:27 PM
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QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Apr 20 2011, 04:45 PM) *
Yeah, Ana way back in 2003.

I believe its the only April storm.

Thank you for replying. I forgot the year. Anyway it will be interesting to see
what invest 91L does. Possibly our 2nd April TS??. 2011 hurricane season could
be off to an early start.
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Dogod
post Apr 25 2011, 05:51 PM
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Who decided the replacement names for the retired 2005 storms?
Katrina -> Katia (dropped two letters, looks identical at first glance)
Rita -> Rina (replaced one letter, also looks identical at first glance, and since the length is the same, it's worse)
Stan -> Sean (also replaces only one letter, although it doesn't look as identical at first glance, it's still very similar)

I thought the point of retiring names was to avoid confusion.
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hurricanehunter
post May 1 2011, 12:08 AM
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QUOTE(Dogod @ Apr 25 2011, 06:51 PM) *
Who decided the replacement names for the retired 2005 storms?
Katrina -> Katia (dropped two letters, looks identical at first glance)
Rita -> Rina (replaced one letter, also looks identical at first glance, and since the length is the same, it's worse)
Stan -> Sean (also replaces only one letter, although it doesn't look as identical at first glance, it's still very similar)

I thought the point of retiring names was to avoid confusion.



It's not that confusing really. Katia doesn't look anything like Katrina. Rina is a bit like Rita, but I don't think anyone will confuse Sean with Stan because no one really remembers Stan in the first place. The names come from the World Meteorological Organization, or WHO, not from the NHC.
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weather-major94
post May 11 2011, 11:52 PM
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Ah I've waited far too long for the hurricane season. 2010 was a bit of a dissapointment. No, not because there werent any cat 5 monsters bearing down on the US, but due to the hype the year got, and the relatively lesser activity, I was a bit Dissapointed. On to other subjects, first, I've been reading exended forecasts for this season, and am now wondering what ACE values are, sorry to bother you with simple quesions, but my vocabulary needs brushing up, my apologies. sad.gif
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kab2791
post May 12 2011, 09:19 AM
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I wouldn't call 19/12/5 "lesser activity" at all. The outcome was predicted by many sources like the NOAA to an extent, and the outcome also exceeded some other predictions. Unless you are talking about U.S. landfalls?

ACE: Accumulated Cyclone Energy: (Wikipedia)
QUOTE
The ACE of a season is calculated by summing the squares of the estimated maximum sustained velocity of every active tropical storm (wind speed 35 knots (65 km/h) or higher), at six-hour intervals. If any storms of a season happen to cross years, the storm's ACE counts for the previous year.[2] The numbers are usually divided by 10,000 to make them more manageable. The unit of ACE is 104 kt2, and for use as an index the unit is assumed. Thus:

\text{ACE} = 10^{-4} \sum v_\max^2

where vmax is estimated sustained wind speed in knots.

Kinetic energy is proportional to the square of velocity, and by adding together the energy per some interval of time, the accumulated energy is found. As the duration of a storm increases, more values are summed and the ACE also increases such that longer-duration storms may accumulate a larger ACE than more-powerful storms of lesser duration. Although ACE is a value proportional to the energy of the system, it is not a direct calculation of energy (the mass of the moved air and therefore the size of the storm would show up in a real energy calculation).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_Cyclone_Energy

2010 Total: 165

QUOTE(weather-major94 @ May 12 2011, 12:52 AM) *
Ah I've waited far too long for the hurricane season. 2010 was a bit of a dissapointment. No, not because there werent any cat 5 monsters bearing down on the US, but due to the hype the year got, and the relatively lesser activity, I was a bit Dissapointed. On to other subjects, first, I've been reading exended forecasts for this season, and am now wondering what ACE values are, sorry to bother you with simple quesions, but my vocabulary needs brushing up, my apologies. sad.gif


This post has been edited by kab2791: May 12 2011, 09:25 AM


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DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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weather-major94
post May 12 2011, 12:26 PM
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QUOTE(kab2791 @ May 12 2011, 09:19 AM) *
I wouldn't call 19/12/5 "lesser activity" at all. The outcome was predicted by many sources like the NOAA to an extent, and the outcome also exceeded some other predictions. Unless you are talking about U.S. landfalls?

ACE: Accumulated Cyclone Energy: (Wikipedia)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_Cyclone_Energy

2010 Total: 165


well, i was actually talking about landfalls, but i was tired last night XD. thanks, i had a basic idea but was a bit confused. anyway, have there been any invests this season? conditions are already getting better, wind shear is still high though. SSTs need to go up a bit.

This post has been edited by weather-major94: May 12 2011, 12:33 PM
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Removed_Member_Doorman_*
post May 19 2011, 01:22 PM
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CPC outlook

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outl...hurricane.shtml

small sample


QUOTE
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook primarily reflects an expected set of conditions during the peak months (August-October) of the season that is known to be conducive to increased Atlantic hurricane activity. This expectation is based on the prediction of three climate factors. These climate factors are: 1) the tropical multi-decadal signal, which has contributed to the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995, 2) a continuation of above average sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR, which includes the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic ocean between 9oN-21.5oN; Goldenberg et al. 2001), and 3) a high likelihood of ENSO-neutral conditions (i.e., no El Niņo or La Niņa).
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NYCSuburbs
post May 19 2011, 02:20 PM
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Not sure how much it's worth, if at all, but since 1995, the years featuring a La Nina transitioning into a neutral ENSO (slightly negative or neutral, but not an official La Nina) were 1996, 2001 and 2008. 2000 is a close one. These years all brought above average activity, with 14-17 named storms and 7-10 hurricanes.


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east coast storm
post May 19 2011, 05:37 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ May 19 2011, 03:20 PM) *
Not sure how much it's worth, if at all, but since 1995, the years featuring a La Nina transitioning into a neutral ENSO (slightly negative or neutral, but not an official La Nina) were 1996, 2001 and 2008. 2000 is a close one. These years all brought above average activity, with 14-17 named storms and 7-10 hurricanes.

On the visible there is an interesting cloud area from the eastern caribbean to
south of Bermuda. Could that area possibly develop into something?
Sorry to go OT
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Superstorm93
post May 19 2011, 05:49 PM
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About 15 ( + or - 1) seems to be the consensus this year.

This season should feature more impacts than previous years based on analogs.

East coast may have to pay special attention this year with '96 and '99 in the cards.


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Removed_Member_Doorman_*
post May 20 2011, 12:31 PM
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Florida Governors Hurricane Conference

nice videos and interviews from Jim Williams at the
http://hurricanecity.com/ - homepage-

sample link here
http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/14792547

screen shot
[attachment=133264:HC.png]
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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 4 2011, 08:35 PM
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The new NHC hurricane season outlook update is out, and it's increasing the forecast, now expecting 14-19 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. It could be possible if we see favorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation for the rest of the season, as we're already ahead of last year; Emily, the 5th named storm, formed on August 1st, while Earl of last year formed on August 25th. In fact, Emily even formed before last year's 3rd named storm (Colin, Aug 2).


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NorEaster07
post Aug 5 2011, 06:48 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Aug 4 2011, 09:35 PM) *
The new NHC hurricane season outlook update is out, and it's increasing the forecast, now expecting 14-19 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. It could be possible if we see favorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation for the rest of the season, as we're already ahead of last year; Emily, the 5th named storm, formed on August 1st, while Earl of last year formed on August 25th. In fact, Emily even formed before last year's 3rd named storm (Colin, Aug 2).


14-19 named storms? Do they consider the calendar when saying that? So we had 5 so far if they are including those.... That means 9-14 more named storms.

Theres 12 weeks until November 1st.
17 weeks till end of November.

It means at least 1 named storm a week.... .

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Aug 5 2011, 06:51 AM


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Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.8"
2014-15: 0.8"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.8"
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Superstorm93
post Aug 5 2011, 06:58 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 5 2011, 07:48 AM) *
14-19 named storms? Do they consider the calendar when saying that? So we had 5 so far if they are including those.... That means 9-14 more named storms.

Theres 12 weeks until November 1st.
17 weeks till end of November.

It means at least 1 named storm a week.... .


I remember hearing the same exact thing last year.

Obviously once you near late August and early September, you could produce 2-3 storms in one week. Hurricanes do not follow calenders.

NOAA: 16.5
TSR: 16.5
CSU: 16
WSI: 17

This post has been edited by Superstorm93: Aug 5 2011, 07:00 AM


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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 5 2011, 08:15 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 5 2011, 07:48 AM) *
14-19 named storms? Do they consider the calendar when saying that? So we had 5 so far if they are including those.... That means 9-14 more named storms.

Theres 12 weeks until November 1st.
17 weeks till end of November.

It means at least 1 named storm a week.... .

That's what I also added in my previous post - last year we had 19 named storms, and as of August 5th, we only had 3 storms. As of this year's August 5th, we already have 5 named storms, and as last year's 5th storm didn't come until August 25, we're already ahead of last year. If we get favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development later this month into September, where we see frequent development similar to that of last year, then we can easily reach 14-19 named storms.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Aug 5 2011, 08:16 AM


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jdrenken
post Aug 5 2011, 02:07 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 5 2011, 06:48 AM) *
14-19 named storms? Do they consider the calendar when saying that? So we had 5 so far if they are including those.... That means 9-14 more named storms.

Theres 12 weeks until November 1st.
17 weeks till end of November.

It means at least 1 named storm a week.... .


As the other two mentioned...it's not that hard, just look at last year. rolleyes.gif


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It's a work in progress!

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