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> December 2010 Discussion, Temps precip patterns
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post Nov 10 2010, 06:49 PM
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Looks to get cold by later November. Should lead into an intresting december. Post away!
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dmc76
post Nov 10 2010, 06:52 PM
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Im thinking a Zonal Flow banaza in the first part of December unsure.gif


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Total Snowfall: 69.7" Biggest Storm: 2/2 11.0" Snow Depth 5"
Snow history: season average L.O 58"from 1995 to 2010

96-97 42.5 97-98 27.5 98-99 71.1" 99-00 44.3" 00-01 58.5" 01-02 47.6"02-03 52.2" 03-04 62.5" 04-05 86.0" 05-06 41.6"06-07 34.5"07-08 99.8"08-09 87.1" 2009/10 49.5"
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windman
post Nov 10 2010, 09:00 PM
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La Nina years can feature some of the season's best storms in the month of December, and considering how relatively quiet October and November have been, I would expect at least one major storm system to roll through the Mid-Atlantic/NE this December. Obviously, we don't yet know what the MJO, PNA, NAO, AO, and other teleconnections will be, but just going off climatology and current patterns and trends, I'd say at least one major storm is a good bet. Teleconnections will determine whether we have a coastal or inland track... Either are possible.

Some La Nina years that featured one or more major storms in December include:
2007 (1)
2000 (2)
1974 (1)
1962 (1)
1954 (1)
1950 (1)
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hckyplayer8
post Nov 11 2010, 12:29 AM
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QUOTE(windman @ Nov 10 2010, 09:00 PM) *
La Nina years can feature some of the season's best storms in the month of December, and considering how relatively quiet October and November have been, I would expect at least one major storm system to roll through the Mid-Atlantic/NE this December. Obviously, we don't yet know what the MJO, PNA, NAO, AO, and other teleconnections will be, but just going off climatology and current patterns and trends, I'd say at least one major storm is a good bet. Teleconnections will determine whether we have a coastal or inland track... Either are possible.

Some La Nina years that featured one or more major storms in December include:
2007 (1)
2000 (2)
1974 (1)
1962 (1)
1954 (1)
1950 (1)


I would say its been more active than quiet. A Plains/Mid West Bomb and what I count...four...significant coastal storms since the beginning of October.






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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Nov 11 2010, 12:44 AM
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yeah I agree hckplayer, this fall has been quite active, however we are in an active weather pattern where the teleconnections support a west coast trough/east coast ridge, however weather patterns change, so would could suggest that the teleconnection and pattern we are in could change to a -NAO/+PNA, models suggest an active polar vortex over central Canada for most of the next 14 days at least, which means we need a stretch of +PNA values before anything becomes exciting for Eastern US coastal snow lovers. Although I would say that this December is a cold and snowy one for most of the Northeast. Coastal Storms seem to favor a later intensification phase, especially miller b snowstorms. So heavier snow would seem more prudent to fall over northern and eastern New England more so, then a widespread blizzard, but chances are these preliminary guesses are just that, guess at this time. Teleconnections for certain periods will dictate what affects the region.
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Nov 11 2010, 12:45 AM
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I would like to see a -EPO develop before anyone should get too excited.
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windman
post Nov 11 2010, 01:33 AM
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QUOTE(hckyplayer8 @ Nov 11 2010, 12:29 AM) *
I would say its been more active than quiet. A Plains/Mid West Bomb and what I count...four...significant coastal storms since the beginning of October.


The Midwest storm was impressive but we didn't get anything from that here in the NE... Around here so far we've had the storm at the beginning of October, the middle of October, and the coastal storm earlier this week... The storm from this week was pretty good, but we've had worse in previous years. The other two storms in October were over-hyped and really didn't deliver anything out of the ordinary. We have yet to get a true major storm this year, but then again, this isn't too atypical of a La Nina year. In 2007, we didn't have anything until December.
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jdrenken
post Nov 11 2010, 06:51 AM
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QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Nov 10 2010, 11:45 PM) *
I would like to see a -EPO develop before anyone should get too excited.


ESRL shows there's one on the way...



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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 12 2010, 10:22 AM
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It's been well avertised for a few months now by both AccuWeather and the NWS along with several folks on this forum that December should be pretty eventful for the Mid-Atlantic and N/E with regard to Cold and SNOW. As we are all aware December is now only right around the corner, so have those origional feelings from a few months back remained the same....or have they somewhat changed or been adjusted from those origional thoughts and ideas?
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Niyologist
post Nov 12 2010, 11:01 AM
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QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Nov 11 2010, 12:45 AM) *
I would like to see a -EPO develop before anyone should get too excited.


I agree. A -EPO will promote the chances of a +PNA, which will lead to occassional cold snaps on the EC. Then that'll lead to the development of a coastal storm that could bring snow.


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hckyplayer8
post Nov 15 2010, 06:11 PM
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 16 2010, 10:29 AM
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Hey Guys and Gals what's the latest thinking, are we still on board for the advertised Cold and SNOWY month of December over here in the East (MidAtlantic and NorthEast)
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irishbri74
post Nov 16 2010, 11:27 AM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Nov 16 2010, 10:29 AM) *
Hey Guys and Gals what's the latest thinking, are we still on board for the advertised Cold and SNOWY month of December over here in the East (MidAtlantic and NorthEast)


eric, from what i've gathered around the community, i've seen some solid support from pro mets that say we could be heading into a favorable pattern. Snow is tough to forecast, especially for our area. However, moving into late Nov, early dec, the pattern looks to be conductive for storms and cold to clash east of the mississippi.

of course there are some nay sayers, but from what i've gathered from respectbale mets, looks as if a consensus is forming.


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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 16 2010, 01:11 PM
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QUOTE(irishbri74 @ Nov 16 2010, 11:27 AM) *
eric, from what i've gathered around the community, i've seen some solid support from pro mets that say we could be heading into a favorable pattern. Snow is tough to forecast, especially for our area. However, moving into late Nov, early dec, the pattern looks to be conductive for storms and cold to clash east of the mississippi.

of course there are some nay sayers, but from what i've gathered from respectbale mets, looks as if a consensus is forming.

Outstanding my brother, yea lets just keep our fingers crossed that we do stear into Winter once the latter part of November arrives and especially once we move into December (as well advertised over the past few weeks) by both PRO and Amatuer mets.

Did you have an oppertunity to have a look at Margusity's video today? He feels pretty confident the time frame immediately following Thanksgiving is when us folks over here in the East are going to get a real blast of Winter, even both Elliot Abrams and Joe Lundburg alluded to this happening in some form or fashion.....so in a nut shell it for certain looks as if someehing may be in the works for us biggrin.gif
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hckyplayer8
post Nov 19 2010, 12:47 PM
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Teleconnection Update

Big -NAO


AO dropping down to about -3 then from there its a pretty wide spread


PNA which has been vastly negative since before the mid month mark, looks to be at least traveling into the neutral/slightly negative range.




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EstorilM
post Nov 19 2010, 09:20 PM
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I'm liking this! Didn't even know accuweather made these maps..


6-10 days



11-15 days



30 days+


This post has been edited by EstorilM: Nov 19 2010, 09:24 PM


--------------------
09-10 OCT 0.0 NOV 0.0 DEC 21.4 JAN 5.7 FEB 46.1 MAR T =73.2
10-11 OCT 0.0 NOV 0.0 DEC 1.5 JAN 10.3 FEB 0.7 MAR 0.1 =12.6
11-12 OCT 0.6 NOV 0.0 DEC T JAN 1.7 FEB 1.4 MAR T = 3.7
*working on last years stats and sig update
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Foothills Snowma...
post Nov 19 2010, 11:04 PM
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QUOTE(EstorilM @ Nov 19 2010, 09:20 PM) *
I'm liking this! Didn't even know accuweather made these maps..


6-10 days

11-15 days

30 days+



That looks awesome .Now what about the white fluffy stuff? SNOW
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 19 2010, 11:28 PM
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QUOTE(EstorilM @ Nov 19 2010, 09:20 PM) *
I'm liking this! Didn't even know accuweather made these maps..


6-10 days

11-15 days

30 days+

I had no idea that Accuweather published these sorts of maps either, now did you notice if they provided (precipitation maps) along with these Temperature maps?
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hckyplayer8
post Nov 22 2010, 12:55 PM
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Euro Weeklies







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windman
post Nov 23 2010, 12:25 PM
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QUOTE(hckyplayer8 @ Nov 22 2010, 12:55 PM) *
Euro Weeklies







Wow that looks awful... I'm not convinced about this wintry December that many have been calling for... There's just too many conflicting forecasts/models at this point. If I had to take a guess, I'd say the NYC metro area only sees one few-inch snowstorm for the entire month.
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