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> December 2010 Discussion, Temps precip patterns
Fire/Rescue
post Dec 2 2010, 05:25 PM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Dec 2 2010, 04:54 PM) *
The cold looks like it'll dominate most of the month. The only chances that we have for this month for snow are the 11th-13th and the 16th-18th. After that it'll be frigid, but gradually warming up.

Ya know when we sit back and look at the BIG picture, it's really sad that according to the models as of today (as Niyologist has stated above) we ONLY really have 2 decent chances of SNOW for an entire month here in the Mid Atlantic and that's PATHETIC to say the least!

Then to make matters even worse, one would be inclined to say (no biggie, we will just have to wait until January) ya know the HEART of WINTER right? But not so fast, according to alot of folks we really get MILD by then....soooooo then what, do we bank on February or maybe March huh.gif

Even a PRO Met from Accuweather is being really BOLD with his Winter prediction and feelings by saying WINTER for us folks in the Mid Atlantic is all but OVER with shortley after Christmas....and this is just a total BUMMER sad.gif
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NYCSuburbs
post Dec 2 2010, 06:03 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Dec 2 2010, 05:25 PM) *
Ya know when we sit back and look at the BIG picture, it's really sad that according to the models as of today (as Niyologist has stated above) we ONLY really have 2 decent chances of SNOW for an entire month here in the Mid Atlantic and that's PATHETIC to say the least!

Then to make matters even worse, one would be inclined to say (no biggie, we will just have to wait until January) ya know the HEART of WINTER right? But not so fast, according to alot of folks we really get MILD by then....soooooo then what, do we bank on February or maybe March huh.gif

Even a PRO Met from Accuweather is being really BOLD with his Winter prediction and feelings by saying WINTER for us folks in the Mid Atlantic is all but OVER with shortley after Christmas....and this is just a total BUMMER sad.gif

I highly doubt that winter will be over after the end of December, but it does appear at this time that the rest of the winter shouldn't be as good for the East. We'll still be able to get some cold and snow, but the pattern should become less favorable for cold/snow in the East by January/February. Besides, pattern changes always happen, I don't see how we get stuck with the current strong cold over the East pattern for a good part of the winter.
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Removed_Member_Garrett_*
post Dec 2 2010, 07:47 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Dec 2 2010, 05:25 PM) *
Ya know when we sit back and look at the BIG picture, it's really sad that according to the models as of today (as Niyologist has stated above) we ONLY really have 2 decent chances of SNOW for an entire month here in the Mid Atlantic and that's PATHETIC to say the least!

Then to make matters even worse, one would be inclined to say (no biggie, we will just have to wait until January) ya know the HEART of WINTER right? But not so fast, according to alot of folks we really get MILD by then....soooooo then what, do we bank on February or maybe March huh.gif

Even a PRO Met from Accuweather is being really BOLD with his Winter prediction and feelings by saying WINTER for us folks in the Mid Atlantic is all but OVER with shortley after Christmas....and this is just a total BUMMER sad.gif


Here in the southern Mid-Atl we have 3 snow chances:

This saturday, the 5th.
The 11th-13th.
The 16-18th.

Considering the fact if the Clipper track and all remain where it is or similar to today I could see at least an inch of snow that would put me above avg. for snow for December. Then if the other 2 events were to verify this December would be considered pretty good here.
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Removed_Member_Snowrider_*
post Dec 2 2010, 08:35 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Dec 2 2010, 05:25 PM) *
Ya know when we sit back and look at the BIG picture, it's really sad that according to the models as of today (as Niyologist has stated above) we ONLY really have 2 decent chances of SNOW for an entire month here in the Mid Atlantic and that's PATHETIC to say the least!

Then to make matters even worse, one would be inclined to say (no biggie, we will just have to wait until January) ya know the HEART of WINTER right? But not so fast, according to alot of folks we really get MILD by then....soooooo then what, do we bank on February or maybe March huh.gif

Even a PRO Met from Accuweather is being really BOLD with his Winter prediction and feelings by saying WINTER for us folks in the Mid Atlantic is all but OVER with shortley after Christmas....and this is just a total BUMMER sad.gif


Dont dwell on that pal. Anything is possible as you know. My god, they are wrong more than they are right-most of the time. Winter hasn't even officially started yet and won't for another 3 weeks. Yes Meteorological winter just started yesterday. That's like saying that July and August arn't gonna have any heat-it may not be like the summer of 2010, but you will get some hot days, and there's nothing saying that those hot days cant be scorchers, maybe it won't last 10-15 days, but it will get hot! Just like it will get cold, and there will be chances for wintry precip-nobody knows just where or how much. Keep your head up! Most of the time big storms pop up out of nowhere 3 or 4 days out and surprise ya! Nobody, and I mean Nobody knows what will transpire-there are always surprises during the winter, and this winter will be no exception.

Snowrider.
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Niyologist
post Dec 2 2010, 08:43 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Dec 2 2010, 06:03 PM) *
I highly doubt that winter will be over after the end of December, but it does appear at this time that the rest of the winter shouldn't be as good for the East. We'll still be able to get some cold and snow, but the pattern should become less favorable for cold/snow in the East by January/February. Besides, pattern changes always happen, I don't see how we get stuck with the current strong cold over the East pattern for a good part of the winter.


That's what I mentioned on the Long Range Winter Forecast thread. We will see wintry weather, but it'll be less potent and scattered throughout the winter. So winter won't end after this month.


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SnowMan11
post Dec 2 2010, 11:28 PM
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Euro weeklies have a -NAO right through New Years. It is cold through December.


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Niyologist
post Dec 3 2010, 12:07 AM
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I'm very surprised what the Euro Weeklies is showing. It's Very Cold into the first week of January. I think my forecast my bust pretty bad if this is confirmed. With such a pattern like this, the EC will feel not only the chill but also the biting wind and snow.


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CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: VSonic GR06 (MSRP $59.99), MEElec M-DUO (MSRP $79.99), Beyerdynamic DTX-910 (MSRP $79.99), Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)

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jdrenken
post Dec 3 2010, 12:39 AM
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The CFS has had the heart of winter cold...

DJF 1


DJF 2


DJF 3 is the bad egg.



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jdrenken
post Dec 3 2010, 12:40 AM
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Following up with actual Monthlies...

DJF 1


DJF 2


DJF 3 is the bad egg.



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Fire/Rescue
post Dec 3 2010, 01:33 PM
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QUOTE
Brett Anderson: Prairies on Eastward Looking Very Wintry through the End of the Month Dec 3, 2010; 12:17 PM ET

The new weekly long range ECMWF model forecast has just come out and it shows plenty of cold being directed from NW Canada down through the Prairies and into the eastern U.S. and southeastern Canada through the end of the month.The most glaring thing that I see is that the model continues to advertise persistent, strong blocking (high pressure and warming aloft) over northeastern Canada and Greenland, which forces the Arctic air much farther south than normal.

By the end of the month and early January the model indicates that the blocking pushes more to the west, so that the coldest air relative to normal is forced out of NW Canada and the Prairies and more toward the east, at least for the time being.

With this amount of blocking, if it holds true, there should be plenty of room for several coastal storms along or off the East Coast of the U.S as Alberta clippers track southeastward and strengthen off the coast.

This high latitude blocking pattern will have to be monitored closely. If it persists well into January then I may have to make some changes to the second half of my winter forecast. Still, plenty of time to watch this.
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mikeyj1220
post Dec 3 2010, 10:26 PM
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My outlook doesnt look too bad!! Better than 60's and no snow!!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?C...mp;lon=-79.5444

Snow everyday in the forecast

This post has been edited by mikeyj1220: Dec 3 2010, 10:27 PM


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Feb 2010 beat our snow record in one month with approx. 45-50 inches
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BtownWxWatcher
post Dec 4 2010, 10:02 AM
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WOW
Attached File  1072mb_high.gif ( 60.16K ) Number of downloads: 1

1072MB high in greenland.

BTW 6z GFS has a CAD event at the end of run.


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Fire/Rescue
post Dec 14 2010, 11:05 AM
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I am still waiting on the accumulating SNOW that Many Pro Mets were advertising would be here IMBY for the month of December, now there's been plenty of COLD...but nothing more then a "Dusting" here and there dry.gif
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TheMaineMan
post Dec 14 2010, 07:08 PM
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Dec 1 through Dec 14, my region is about 2 F above average thus far. Will take some cold temps to prevent this from becoming our 14th consecutive month of above-average temperatures.


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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TheMaineMan
post Dec 27 2010, 01:02 PM
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December 2010 has turned out to be a warm, wet month. Going by the forecast for the next few days, we will finish the month about 2-3 degrees above normal and more than 2 inches of precipitation above normal (depending on the current storm, snowfall will end up about 6-8 inches above normal for the month.) Snowpack will end up being close to average due to excessive melting earlier in the month.

Unless tonight or tomorrow night go dramatically colder than forecast, we had one sub-zero day this month (December 10, -2 F.)

Highest temp was 55 degrees.

Third December in a row with above-average temps. December 2007 was the last "Colder than normal" December.



--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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steve04074
post Dec 30 2010, 05:21 PM
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QUOTE(TheMaineMan @ Dec 27 2010, 01:02 PM) *
December 2010 has turned out to be a warm, wet month. Going by the forecast for the next few days, we will finish the month about 2-3 degrees above normal and more than 2 inches of precipitation above normal (depending on the current storm, snowfall will end up about 6-8 inches above normal for the month.) Snowpack will end up being close to average due to excessive melting earlier in the month.

Unless tonight or tomorrow night go dramatically colder than forecast, we had one sub-zero day this month (December 10, -2 F.)

Highest temp was 55 degrees.

Third December in a row with above-average temps. December 2007 was the last "Colder than normal" December.



Hey there-- Well, we've just about done it. About to wrap up our 14th-straight month of above normal at KPWM.

Very disheartening.

And from what I can see, absolutely no sign of any true Arctic air's arrival anytime soon for us in New England....
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TheMaineMan
post Dec 30 2010, 05:27 PM
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Nope, and whenever an "arctic blast" is forecast it seems to bring us down to seasonable temps at most.

Last night was surprisingly cold... 0 degrees flat when I left for work this morning. So we almost had a second sub-zero night, who knows maybe it was -1 right before I went outside. *shrug*


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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SnowMan11
post Dec 30 2010, 06:45 PM
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This month turned out really cold over here but 1 major snowstorm.( Dec 26-27). That blizzard almost brought me to my average snowfall for the winter. My average is around 27 and I have 25 inches.


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Removed_Member_Garrett_*
post Dec 30 2010, 07:11 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Dec 30 2010, 06:45 PM) *
This month turned out really cold over here but 1 major snowstorm.( Dec 26-27). That blizzard almost brought me to my average snowfall for the winter. My average is around 27 and I have 25 inches.


That storm brought me to 200% of my normal snowfall.

Our avg. is 10" flat. This past storm plus the other snows we've had this Winter so far have brought us up to 20.05" so far. smile.gif
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SnowMan11
post Dec 30 2010, 07:18 PM
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QUOTE(Garrett @ Dec 30 2010, 07:11 PM) *
That storm brought me to 200% of my normal snowfall.

Our avg. is 10" flat. This past storm plus the other snows we've had this Winter so far have brought us up to 20.05" so far. smile.gif


Congrats smile.gif


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