 Dec 12-13 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Closed: See OBS Thread |
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  Nov 27 2010, 06:13 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 8,195 Joined: 16-February 08 From: Mahopac, New York Member No.: 13,731  |
Well even though it is really far out GFS has been showing something for the past few runs.
0z GFS has a storm in the Mississippi Valley heading in the direction of the region.
06z has a storm along the east Coast actually affecting coastal areas of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.
12z does not have a storm this period but has a clipper in the Upper Midwest. 18z has a weird solution has a very nice looking storm that looks to be heading up the coast but it suddenly heads out to Sea.
It seems as if this period could have a pretty favorable pattern so it could be a period to watch. This post has been edited by yankees: Nov 27 2010, 06:21 PM -------------------- Summer Weather Safety
Summer is here and here are some tips to stay safe Severe Weather http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/severeweather/index.shtml Heat Safety http://nws.noaa.gov/os/heat/index.shtml 09-10 43.5 inches ( Newly Updated from 39 inches) 10-11 60.5 inches 11-12 21 inches 12-13 45.5 inches 13-14 57 inches 14-15 57.5 inches 15-16 28.5 inches |
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Nov 27 2010, 06:46 PM
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#2
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 12,446 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
I'll be watching
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Nov 27 2010, 08:35 PM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 33,603 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
Amazing GFS runs, if only what the GFS shows at hour 384 was actually true...
This time period also seems to be interesting, so this will also be something to watch. The CPC teleconnections show a slightly negative PNA, the AO falling towards negative just before this time frame and starting to rise towards neutral again, and a rising slightly negative NAO. This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Nov 27 2010, 08:35 PM |
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Nov 27 2010, 08:53 PM
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 12,446 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Nov 27 2010, 08:35 PM)  Amazing GFS runs, if only what the GFS shows at hour 384 was actually true... This time period also seems to be interesting, so this will also be something to watch. The CPC teleconnections show a slightly negative PNA, the AO falling towards negative just before this time frame and starting to rise towards neutral again, and a rising slightly negative NAO. Man I'll tell ya, if all the (GFS Fantacy Land) storms would actually happen as depicted hundreds of hours out....we would be in good shape with FEET of SNOW every couple of weeks wouldn't we 
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Nov 27 2010, 08:58 PM
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 27,716 Joined: 8-January 09 From: Westchester County, NY Member No.: 16,816 |
QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Nov 27 2010, 08:53 PM) Man I'll tell ya, if all the (GFS Fantacy Land) storms would actually happen as depicted hundreds of hours out....we would be in good shape with FEET of SNOW every couple of weeks wouldn't we the gfs fantasy storms have actually been more tame this year then in years past, i remember last December it showed four Major east coast snowstorms on one run. -------------------- 2013-2014 Snowfall
11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting 12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting 12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting 12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch 12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches 12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches |
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Nov 27 2010, 09:00 PM
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#6
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,563 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Nov 27 2010, 07:58 PM) the gfs fantasy storms have actually been more tame this year then in years past, i remember last December it showed four Major east coast snowstorms on one run. Since it went thru it's upgrade, it has been better. -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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Nov 27 2010, 09:01 PM
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#7
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 975 Joined: 5-December 09 From: Just east of Barrington, IL Member No.: 20,014 |
0z
-------------------- Winter 2011-2012 Snow Accumulation Log NADA! |
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Nov 30 2010, 12:06 PM
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#8
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,202 Joined: 5-February 09 From: Albany, NY Member No.: 17,493 |
Maybe this one will stay put since its just under 300 hrs. out
6z GFS had it OTS, here is the 12z GFS.
0z Euro has a low out west @ 240. 
-------------------- Snowfall 2017-2018: 66.6"
2016-2017: 58.7" 2015-2016: 13.1" 2014-2015: 72.1" 2013-2014: 79" 2012-2013: 48.8" 2011-2012: 23.3" 2010-2011: 80.2" Seasonal Normal: 60.3" |
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Nov 30 2010, 12:12 PM
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#9
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 19,261 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
Well, since we are here to discuss and the GFS goes out so much into the future plus that at least on the GFS, it seems that PV that has been messing us up with the storms before this potential, finally seems to give up on his mission to forbid us from having a snow storm by behaving better.
So, as a result, given that we may still have a +PNA, -AO and a weaker -NAO, this occurs, as that nice phase takes place:
Discuss, nicely. -------------------- |
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Nov 30 2010, 12:16 PM
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#10
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,899 Joined: 4-February 10 From: Middleburg, VA Member No.: 21,381 |
I think someone beat ya to it
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Nov 30 2010, 12:16 PM
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,299 Joined: 9-December 08 From: toms river Member No.: 16,427 |
atleast something else talk about now. and by the way looks like you and someone else made a board for the same storm round the same time.
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Nov 30 2010, 12:18 PM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 19,261 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
Cool, uh?
Who could possibly be that speedy? Albanyweather, I take...  Now I must go on to merge the threads. -------------------- |
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Nov 30 2010, 12:21 PM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 19,261 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
Albanyweather, no need to be so fast, lol.
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Nov 30 2010, 12:22 PM
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,202 Joined: 5-February 09 From: Albany, NY Member No.: 17,493 |
QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Nov 30 2010, 12:18 PM) Cool, uh? Who could possibly be that speedy? Albanyweather, I take... Now I must go on to merge the threads. I didn't see another topic for this one, I refreshed right before I posted because I know that happens alot
-------------------- Snowfall 2017-2018: 66.6"
2016-2017: 58.7" 2015-2016: 13.1" 2014-2015: 72.1" 2013-2014: 79" 2012-2013: 48.8" 2011-2012: 23.3" 2010-2011: 80.2" Seasonal Normal: 60.3" |
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Nov 30 2010, 12:28 PM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,807 Joined: 11-November 08 From: Paramus, New Jersey Member No.: 16,126 |
This is what I like to see.
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Nov 30 2010, 01:30 PM
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,084 Joined: 17-January 08 Member No.: 12,622 |
QUOTE(dverchow @ Nov 30 2010, 12:28 PM) This is what I like to see.
IT looks like any storm that forms will not be big until it gets to the Northeast (mass and maine). Not great for the mid atlantic |
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Nov 30 2010, 03:09 PM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,195 Joined: 16-February 08 From: Mahopac, New York Member No.: 13,731 |
QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Nov 30 2010, 12:21 PM) Albanyweather, no need to be so fast, lol. I also started a thread for this period. I think it might be on page two and it shows some previous model runs. -------------------- Summer Weather Safety
Summer is here and here are some tips to stay safe Severe Weather http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/severeweather/index.shtml Heat Safety http://nws.noaa.gov/os/heat/index.shtml 09-10 43.5 inches ( Newly Updated from 39 inches) 10-11 60.5 inches 11-12 21 inches 12-13 45.5 inches 13-14 57 inches 14-15 57.5 inches 15-16 28.5 inches |
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Nov 30 2010, 03:15 PM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,695 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Mount Vernon, NY Member No.: 12,006 |
QUOTE(dverchow @ Nov 30 2010, 12:28 PM) This is what I like to see.
The focal point of the energy is a bit too far east. It needs to be 50-60 miles west and then it's good. Otherwise I'm not even going to make an analysis on this event until the 5th. |
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Nov 30 2010, 03:18 PM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 33,603 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
Let's hope that this storm doesn't dissapoint us... it looks like the -NAO should weaken by this time frame, so hopefully that helps us get a decent snow potential in the Mid Atlantic.
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Nov 30 2010, 05:51 PM
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 27,716 Joined: 8-January 09 From: Westchester County, NY Member No.: 16,816 |
gfs still showing a nice storm for this time period
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_ten_288l.gif -------------------- 2013-2014 Snowfall
11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting 12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting 12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting 12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch 12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches 12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches |
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