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> Dec 12-13 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Closed: See OBS Thread
yankees
post Nov 27 2010, 06:13 PM
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Well even though it is really far out GFS has been showing something for the past few runs.

0z GFS has a storm in the Mississippi Valley heading in the direction of the region.
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06z has a storm along the east Coast actually affecting coastal areas of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.
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12z does not have a storm this period but has a clipper in the Upper Midwest.

18z has a weird solution has a very nice looking storm that looks to be heading up the coast but it suddenly heads out to Sea.
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It seems as if this period could have a pretty favorable pattern so it could be a period to watch.

This post has been edited by yankees: Nov 27 2010, 06:21 PM


--------------------
Winter Weather Safety
Winter is here and here are some tips to stay safe

Winter Driving Safety Tips
http://www.weather.com/activities/driving/...ytips/snow.html

Winter Storm Safety
http://emergency.cdc.gov/disasters/winter/


Snow Events
12/10 2 inches
12/14-12/15 5.5 inches
12/17 2.5 inches
12/24 1.5 inches
1/3 5.5 inches
1/10 1.5 inches
1/18 4.5 inches
1/21-1/22 3.5 inches
1/25 2 inches
2/3 4 inches
2/5 8 inches
2/9 1 inch
2/13 12.5 inches
2/15 1.5 inches
Total 55.5 inches

09-10 43.5 inches ( Newly Updated from 39 inches)
10-11 60.5 inches
11-12 21 inches
12-13 45.5
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 27 2010, 06:46 PM
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I'll be watching smile.gif
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NYCSuburbs
post Nov 27 2010, 08:35 PM
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Amazing GFS runs, if only what the GFS shows at hour 384 was actually true...

This time period also seems to be interesting, so this will also be something to watch. The CPC teleconnections show a slightly negative PNA, the AO falling towards negative just before this time frame and starting to rise towards neutral again, and a rising slightly negative NAO.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Nov 27 2010, 08:35 PM
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 27 2010, 08:53 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Nov 27 2010, 08:35 PM) *
Amazing GFS runs, if only what the GFS shows at hour 384 was actually true...

This time period also seems to be interesting, so this will also be something to watch. The CPC teleconnections show a slightly negative PNA, the AO falling towards negative just before this time frame and starting to rise towards neutral again, and a rising slightly negative NAO.

Man I'll tell ya, if all the (GFS Fantacy Land) storms would actually happen as depicted hundreds of hours out....we would be in good shape with FEET of SNOW every couple of weeks wouldn't we laugh.gif
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LoveNYCSnow
post Nov 27 2010, 08:58 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Nov 27 2010, 08:53 PM) *
Man I'll tell ya, if all the (GFS Fantacy Land) storms would actually happen as depicted hundreds of hours out....we would be in good shape with FEET of SNOW every couple of weeks wouldn't we laugh.gif


the gfs fantasy storms have actually been more tame this year then in years past, i remember last December it showed four Major east coast snowstorms on one run.


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12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
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12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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jdrenken
post Nov 27 2010, 09:00 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Nov 27 2010, 07:58 PM) *
the gfs fantasy storms have actually been more tame this year then in years past, i remember last December it showed four Major east coast snowstorms on one run.


Since it went thru it's upgrade, it has been better.


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StormStalker
post Nov 27 2010, 09:01 PM
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0z wub.gif


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NADA!
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albanyweather
post Nov 30 2010, 12:06 PM
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Maybe this one will stay put since its just under 300 hrs. out laugh.gif 6z GFS had it OTS, here is the 12z GFS.
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0z Euro has a low out west @ 240.
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--------------------
Winter Advisories: 5
Winter Watch: 5
Winter Warning: 4
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0

Snowfall 2013-2014: 72.2"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
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Phased Vort
post Nov 30 2010, 12:12 PM
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Well, since we are here to discuss and the GFS goes out so much into the future plus that at least on the GFS, it seems that PV that has been messing us up with the storms before this potential, finally seems to give up on his mission to forbid us from having a snow storm by behaving better.

So, as a result, given that we may still have a +PNA, -AO and a weaker -NAO, this occurs, as that nice phase takes place:



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Discuss, nicely.


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EstorilM
post Nov 30 2010, 12:16 PM
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I think someone beat ya to it smile.gif


--------------------
09-10 OCT 0.0 NOV 0.0 DEC 21.4 JAN 5.7 FEB 46.1 MAR T =73.2
10-11 OCT 0.0 NOV 0.0 DEC 1.5 JAN 10.3 FEB 0.7 MAR 0.1 =12.6
11-12 OCT 0.6 NOV 0.0 DEC T JAN 1.7 FEB 1.4 MAR T = 3.7
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justintime2989
post Nov 30 2010, 12:16 PM
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atleast something else talk about now. and by the way looks like you and someone else made a board for the same storm round the same time.
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Phased Vort
post Nov 30 2010, 12:18 PM
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Cool, uh?


Who could possibly be that speedy?

Albanyweather, I take... tongue.gif

Now I must go on to merge the threads.


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Phased Vort
post Nov 30 2010, 12:21 PM
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Albanyweather, no need to be so fast, lol. tongue.gif


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albanyweather
post Nov 30 2010, 12:22 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Nov 30 2010, 12:18 PM) *
Cool, uh?
Who could possibly be that speedy?

Albanyweather, I take... tongue.gif

Now I must go on to merge the threads.

I didn't see another topic for this one, I refreshed right before I posted because I know that happens alot laugh.gif


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 5
Winter Watch: 5
Winter Warning: 4
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0

Snowfall 2013-2014: 72.2"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
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dverchow
post Nov 30 2010, 12:28 PM
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This is what I like to see.

Attached Image
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jrdrnt
post Nov 30 2010, 01:30 PM
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QUOTE(dverchow @ Nov 30 2010, 12:28 PM) *
This is what I like to see.

Attached Image

IT looks like any storm that forms will not be big until it gets to the Northeast (mass and maine). Not great for the mid atlantic
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yankees
post Nov 30 2010, 03:09 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Nov 30 2010, 12:21 PM) *
Albanyweather, no need to be so fast, lol. tongue.gif


I also started a thread for this period. I think it might be on page two and it shows some previous model runs.


--------------------
Winter Weather Safety
Winter is here and here are some tips to stay safe

Winter Driving Safety Tips
http://www.weather.com/activities/driving/...ytips/snow.html

Winter Storm Safety
http://emergency.cdc.gov/disasters/winter/


Snow Events
12/10 2 inches
12/14-12/15 5.5 inches
12/17 2.5 inches
12/24 1.5 inches
1/3 5.5 inches
1/10 1.5 inches
1/18 4.5 inches
1/21-1/22 3.5 inches
1/25 2 inches
2/3 4 inches
2/5 8 inches
2/9 1 inch
2/13 12.5 inches
2/15 1.5 inches
Total 55.5 inches

09-10 43.5 inches ( Newly Updated from 39 inches)
10-11 60.5 inches
11-12 21 inches
12-13 45.5
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Niyologist
post Nov 30 2010, 03:15 PM
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QUOTE(dverchow @ Nov 30 2010, 12:28 PM) *
This is what I like to see.

Attached Image


The focal point of the energy is a bit too far east. It needs to be 50-60 miles west and then it's good. Otherwise I'm not even going to make an analysis on this event until the 5th.


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NYCSuburbs
post Nov 30 2010, 03:18 PM
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Let's hope that this storm doesn't dissapoint us... it looks like the -NAO should weaken by this time frame, so hopefully that helps us get a decent snow potential in the Mid Atlantic.
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LoveNYCSnow
post Nov 30 2010, 05:51 PM
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gfs still showing a nice storm for this time period

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_ten_288l.gif


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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