 Dec 12-13 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Closed: See OBS Thread |
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  Nov 27 2010, 06:13 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 7,846 Joined: 16-February 08 From: Mahopac, New York Member No.: 13,731  |
Well even though it is really far out GFS has been showing something for the past few runs.
0z GFS has a storm in the Mississippi Valley heading in the direction of the region.
06z has a storm along the east Coast actually affecting coastal areas of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.
12z does not have a storm this period but has a clipper in the Upper Midwest. 18z has a weird solution has a very nice looking storm that looks to be heading up the coast but it suddenly heads out to Sea.
It seems as if this period could have a pretty favorable pattern so it could be a period to watch. This post has been edited by yankees: Nov 27 2010, 06:21 PM -------------------- Severe Weather Safety
Spring is soon to be upon us and here are some tips for severe weather season. Thunderstorm Safety Tips http://www.dhses.ny.gov/oem/safety-info/pu...hunderstorm.cfm Lightning Safety http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/ Tornado Safety http://www.ready.gov/tornadoes Snow Events 11/7-6.5 inches 12/24-12/25 1 inch 12/26-12/27 4.5 inches 12/29-2.5 inches 1/15-1/16-4 inches 1/28- 1 inch 2/8-2/9 Blizzard 12 inches 2/13- 1 inch 3/7-3/8- 8 inches 3/18-3/19 5 inches 12-13 45.5 09-10 43.5 inches ( Newly Updated from 39 inches) 10-11 60.5 inches 11-12 21 inches |
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Nov 27 2010, 06:46 PM
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#2
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
I'll be watching
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Nov 27 2010, 08:35 PM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,280 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
Amazing GFS runs, if only what the GFS shows at hour 384 was actually true...
This time period also seems to be interesting, so this will also be something to watch. The CPC teleconnections show a slightly negative PNA, the AO falling towards negative just before this time frame and starting to rise towards neutral again, and a rising slightly negative NAO. This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Nov 27 2010, 08:35 PM -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Nov 27 2010, 08:53 PM
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Nov 27 2010, 08:35 PM)  Amazing GFS runs, if only what the GFS shows at hour 384 was actually true... This time period also seems to be interesting, so this will also be something to watch. The CPC teleconnections show a slightly negative PNA, the AO falling towards negative just before this time frame and starting to rise towards neutral again, and a rising slightly negative NAO. Man I'll tell ya, if all the (GFS Fantacy Land) storms would actually happen as depicted hundreds of hours out....we would be in good shape with FEET of SNOW every couple of weeks wouldn't we 
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Nov 27 2010, 08:58 PM
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 23,853 Joined: 8-January 09 From: Ulster County Member No.: 16,816 |
QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Nov 27 2010, 08:53 PM) Man I'll tell ya, if all the (GFS Fantacy Land) storms would actually happen as depicted hundreds of hours out....we would be in good shape with FEET of SNOW every couple of weeks wouldn't we the gfs fantasy storms have actually been more tame this year then in years past, i remember last December it showed four Major east coast snowstorms on one run. |
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Nov 27 2010, 09:00 PM
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#6
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Nov 27 2010, 07:58 PM) the gfs fantasy storms have actually been more tame this year then in years past, i remember last December it showed four Major east coast snowstorms on one run. Since it went thru it's upgrade, it has been better. -------------------- |
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Nov 27 2010, 09:01 PM
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#7
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 975 Joined: 5-December 09 From: Just east of Barrington, IL Member No.: 20,014 |
0z
-------------------- Winter 2011-2012 Snow Accumulation Log NADA! |
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Nov 30 2010, 12:06 PM
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#8
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,039 Joined: 5-February 09 From: Albany, NY Member No.: 17,493 |
Maybe this one will stay put since its just under 300 hrs. out
6z GFS had it OTS, here is the 12z GFS.
0z Euro has a low out west @ 240. 
-------------------- 2013 Thunder Storm Days: 2
Severe Watches: 2 Severe Warnings: 0 Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8" Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3" Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2" Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3" Snowfall 2008-2009: 52.5" Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7" |
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Nov 30 2010, 12:12 PM
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#9
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 17,816 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
Well, since we are here to discuss and the GFS goes out so much into the future plus that at least on the GFS, it seems that PV that has been messing us up with the storms before this potential, finally seems to give up on his mission to forbid us from having a snow storm by behaving better.
So, as a result, given that we may still have a +PNA, -AO and a weaker -NAO, this occurs, as that nice phase takes place:
Discuss, nicely. -------------------- |
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Nov 30 2010, 12:16 PM
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#10
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,254 Joined: 4-February 10 From: Sterling, VA Member No.: 21,381 |
I think someone beat ya to it
-------------------- 09-10 OCT 0.0 NOV 0.0 DEC 21.4 JAN 5.7 FEB 46.1 MAR T =73.2
10-11 OCT 0.0 NOV 0.0 DEC 1.5 JAN 10.3 FEB 0.7 MAR 0.1 =12.6 11-12 OCT 0.6 NOV 0.0 DEC T JAN 1.7 FEB 1.4 MAR T = 3.7 Current DC snow drought: 742 days without 2"+ event as of 3/6/13 12-13 OCT 0.0 NOV T DEC 2.2 JAN 1.8 FEB 1.3 MAR 3.3 = 8.6 # of snowfall events: 9........# over 1": 3........# over 2": 1........largest: 3.3 Winter Storm Warnings: 2..... #1 for 5+" (actual: 0.0") ..... #2 for 10-14" (actual: 3.3") |
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Nov 30 2010, 12:16 PM
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,277 Joined: 9-December 08 From: nutley Member No.: 16,427 |
atleast something else talk about now. and by the way looks like you and someone else made a board for the same storm round the same time.
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Nov 30 2010, 12:18 PM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 17,816 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
Cool, uh?
Who could possibly be that speedy? Albanyweather, I take...  Now I must go on to merge the threads. -------------------- |
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Nov 30 2010, 12:21 PM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 17,816 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
Albanyweather, no need to be so fast, lol.
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Nov 30 2010, 12:22 PM
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,039 Joined: 5-February 09 From: Albany, NY Member No.: 17,493 |
QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Nov 30 2010, 12:18 PM) Cool, uh? Who could possibly be that speedy? Albanyweather, I take... Now I must go on to merge the threads. I didn't see another topic for this one, I refreshed right before I posted because I know that happens alot
-------------------- 2013 Thunder Storm Days: 2
Severe Watches: 2 Severe Warnings: 0 Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8" Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3" Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2" Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3" Snowfall 2008-2009: 52.5" Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7" |
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Nov 30 2010, 12:28 PM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,807 Joined: 11-November 08 From: Paramus, New Jersey Member No.: 16,126 |
This is what I like to see.
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Nov 30 2010, 01:30 PM
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 721 Joined: 17-January 08 Member No.: 12,622 |
QUOTE(dverchow @ Nov 30 2010, 12:28 PM) This is what I like to see.
IT looks like any storm that forms will not be big until it gets to the Northeast (mass and maine). Not great for the mid atlantic |
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Nov 30 2010, 03:09 PM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,846 Joined: 16-February 08 From: Mahopac, New York Member No.: 13,731 |
QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Nov 30 2010, 12:21 PM) Albanyweather, no need to be so fast, lol. I also started a thread for this period. I think it might be on page two and it shows some previous model runs. -------------------- Severe Weather Safety
Spring is soon to be upon us and here are some tips for severe weather season. Thunderstorm Safety Tips http://www.dhses.ny.gov/oem/safety-info/pu...hunderstorm.cfm Lightning Safety http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/ Tornado Safety http://www.ready.gov/tornadoes Snow Events 11/7-6.5 inches 12/24-12/25 1 inch 12/26-12/27 4.5 inches 12/29-2.5 inches 1/15-1/16-4 inches 1/28- 1 inch 2/8-2/9 Blizzard 12 inches 2/13- 1 inch 3/7-3/8- 8 inches 3/18-3/19 5 inches 12-13 45.5 09-10 43.5 inches ( Newly Updated from 39 inches) 10-11 60.5 inches 11-12 21 inches |
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Nov 30 2010, 03:15 PM
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#18
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,690 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Mount Vernon, NY Member No.: 12,006 |
QUOTE(dverchow @ Nov 30 2010, 12:28 PM) This is what I like to see.
The focal point of the energy is a bit too far east. It needs to be 50-60 miles west and then it's good. Otherwise I'm not even going to make an analysis on this event until the 5th. -------------------- CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: Meelec M6(MSRP $49.99), VSonic GR06 (MSRP $49.99), Meelec CC51(MSRP $80), Beyerdynamic DTX 910 (MSRP $89.99), Future Sonics Atrio X (MSRP $99.99),Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)
SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E6 Amp w/FilmPro 16GB MicroSD Card Class 10 To learn more about Sound Frequency: http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors) http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20 |
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Nov 30 2010, 03:18 PM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,280 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
Let's hope that this storm doesn't dissapoint us... it looks like the -NAO should weaken by this time frame, so hopefully that helps us get a decent snow potential in the Mid Atlantic.
-------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Nov 30 2010, 05:51 PM
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 23,853 Joined: 8-January 09 From: Ulster County Member No.: 16,816 |
gfs still showing a nice storm for this time period
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_ten_288l.gif |
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