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> California Weather 'Coffee Talk'-S.F. Bay Area, Forecasts and Observations- "Discuss amongst yourselves"
idecline
post Mar 18 2012, 07:39 AM
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Coffee Talk


Mar. 18, 2012

Wow! What a storm....even LA and the Southland finally got hit with a winter storm, even though it took until Friday night into Saturdau to get there. We have been raining in Santa Cruz county since Tuesday and not a significant break in the rain until now. The cold core low of the storm moved by the coast all day Saturday and dropped temperatures from the high 50's-low 60's into the 40's and 50's today. Hail, thunderstorms, snow, and even a tornado was reported near Fresno, CA.

Ben Lomond station in the Santa Cruz Mountains had over 4 inches of rain in the first day of the storm, as the jet stream sagged slowly south stranding the front directly over the coastal mountains. This was a very typical 'winter' front coming down the coast and losing steam somewhere between San Francisco and Santa Cruz. The flow pulled the rain up the mountains and left little for the Santa Clara Valley and points Southward. A series of fronts have then been riding the jet down into Washington, Oregon, and Northern and Central California.

Wild weather has been the case all night with extreme winds from the NW and cool temperatures, unsettled pattern will remain at least through Tuesday. Right now a squally thunderstorm is hitting Santa Cruz with gusty winds and cold icy rain. Many areas have had upwards of 10 inches of rain this week...tomorrow Idee will get a better look at what this rain and snow for the Sierra's has done for our rain deficits.

Stay inside..if you can today...enjoy the weather and a cup of steaming hot coffee......or not...


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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Beck
post Mar 20 2012, 10:22 PM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Mar 18 2012, 05:39 AM) *
Coffee Talk


Mar. 18, 2012

Wow! What a storm....even LA and the Southland finally got hit with a winter storm, even though it took until Friday night into Saturdau to get there. We have been raining in Santa Cruz county since Tuesday and not a significant break in the rain until now. The cold core low of the storm moved by the coast all day Saturday and dropped temperatures from the high 50's-low 60's into the 40's and 50's today. Hail, thunderstorms, snow, and even a tornado was reported near Fresno, CA.

Ben Lomond station in the Santa Cruz Mountains had over 4 inches of rain in the first day of the storm, as the jet stream sagged slowly south stranding the front directly over the coastal mountains. This was a very typical 'winter' front coming down the coast and losing steam somewhere between San Francisco and Santa Cruz. The flow pulled the rain up the mountains and left little for the Santa Clara Valley and points Southward. A series of fronts have then been riding the jet down into Washington, Oregon, and Northern and Central California.

Wild weather has been the case all night with extreme winds from the NW and cool temperatures, unsettled pattern will remain at least through Tuesday. Right now a squally thunderstorm is hitting Santa Cruz with gusty winds and cold icy rain. Many areas have had upwards of 10 inches of rain this week...tomorrow Idee will get a better look at what this rain and snow for the Sierra's has done for our rain deficits.

Stay inside..if you can today...enjoy the weather and a cup of steaming hot coffee......or not...

Yes but unfortunately Downtown L.A. is still 7.07" inches below normal, or 46% of normal to date. With only 5.98" inches of rain recorded this season as of this morning, 2011-12 is currently on track to be LA's sixth driest rainy season on record since records began in 1877. And much of Central and Northern California isn't doing too well either:

Attached File  thumbmaker.jpg ( 133.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


If the right conditions develop over California during Fall later this year, fire danger could be extremely high and large areas of wilderness would be closed off to the public due to the fire danger, as it did in 2002 and 2007. This would require heat/strong high pressure, Santa Ana Winds and/or Offshore Flow, and dried out vegetation. The last bad fire season we had was in 2008. The past two Falls, 2010 and 2011, had virtually non-existent fire seasons due to an abundance of early season storms and cool weather.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.45" (-0.33")
Normal to-date precipitation: 0.78"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.81"

Temecula Weather Pages

QUOTE(wingsovernc @ Sep 13 2014, 04:20 PM) *
You're cute when you're whining Becky :)
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idecline
post Mar 26 2012, 04:37 AM
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Coffee Talk
with your host
Paul Baldwin


Hi I'm Idee (substituting for Paul)... we are back...and we are energized....The Rainy Season is upon us....

Last weeks rain amounted to over 12 inches in the Santa Cruz mountains and parts of the North Bay area.

We have a very nice trough over the Western US and fronts are following the jet stream bringing rain into Northern and Central California. The next storm set to arrive Monday night into Tuesday looks very moist, with a possible more Southerly track by the looks of the jet stream energy on the lower edges of the front....Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 801.16K ) Number of downloads: 0


California is a really wacky State...when it comes to weather ...and many other things....

As Californians we get so used to the weather being somewhat boring and predictable, when in reality it is not!
Yes most of our rain comes during the months October through April but that does not apply everywhere in the State. True almost the whole State gets very little precipitation in the summer months but the downpours of summer monsoons sometimes brings inches of rain to areas that don't see that much rain again for years.
Now this year having been lulled to sleep by our boring non-existent Winter season (courtesy of La Nina: keeping the Polar jet riding high and dry all winter long). It seems we have gotten a reprieve with the waning La Nina and the movement of some of the trapped Polar air over the high latitudes that now we have a consistent flow of moisture into the Northwest.

Hopefully some of these storms will reach down into Southern California with some drenching rains ( a Sub-tropical jet connex?) and give needed drought relief to many areas....We shall see....

Coffee Talk: idee had Chai last night instead of coffee...it's a wonderful drink...warm and spicy....

So coffehouses are back in vogue....(in Seattle...where it rains everyday rolleyes.gif ) in the Bay Area...the weather has brought people inside to enjoy hot beverages and perhaps read a book (analog version preferred)...

Todays subject for discussion: Analog v. Digital....Real Books v. Electro-(Franken) pads....I Robot.... ohmy.gif


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Apr 16 2012, 05:28 AM
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Coffee Talk
with your host
Paul Baldwin


Hi I'm Idee (substituting for Paul)...again....

We had another significant 'winter' storm come through last week, as a series of weather systems dropped a large amount of rainfall along the Northern and Central California coast.

On Friday Night a rare display of thunder and lightning roared through the Bay Area, there were hundreds of lightning strikes from the North Bay all the way to Monterey and points south of Big Sur. Torrential downpours from the wave of thunderstorms left over a inch of rain in many valley areas, with several inches falling in some mountain locations. It is indeed rare that we get a 'cold-core' storm that has a thunderstorm occur over the Bay Area, we rarely get a few thunderstorms in the heat of summer when a stray monsoonal cell will come our way. So all in all it was a wonderful last few weeks of rainy weather...Unfortunately Your host was too busy to report on any of this while it was occurring but slowly Central Coast and Bay Area are trying to crawl out of the rain deficit created by the non-existent 'winter' of last year's La Nina pattern.
Although a week of warm weather is in the immediate forecast, the slowly warming equatorial waters of the Eastern Pacific may yet extend this rainy season enough so that we can get up to a reasonable percentage of our 'normal' rainfall...

'Normal'...What is Normal? It seems that the preoccupation that humans have with 'normality' applies even in the perception of nature's work. Idee likes to believe that 'normal' is whatever nature gives you for that particular season, month, day, or hour....but i digress...a long idee rant is being suppressed about the pitfalls of 'comparison' and preoccupation with the past....I'm getting very disorientated...

Talk amongst yourselves....next update TBA


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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suze
post Jun 4 2012, 12:44 PM
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It's June 4, the temps are struggling to reach 60 and it's raining. Not showering, mind you, but full fledged, pouring rain. I suppose it's better than June 4, 2011, which featured an all out storm but I'm still waiting for summer, at least something I can call a consistent summer pattern. We've had about a week's worth of lovely days but they are always short-lived and we're plunged back into the gray and gloom. Note that I'm not in SF but closer to San Jose where it's supposed to be toasty! Last year was a non-summer, the year before that was even colder, and apparently, that so-called predictable "Pacific High" that sets up here in the summer isn't going to establish itself for the foreseeable future. What gives? I'm all for a good rainy season but I also live for the warmth of summer. I'm starting to worry it doesn't happen here anymore. Can anyone explain why? (I'd appreciate not hearing about the need for rain, the love of rain, the "mild" temperatures. I understand the need for rain and I welcome it in its time and place....but this is summer and these temps are not mild they're below normal and cold.)

Thanks!
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idecline
post Jan 1 2013, 09:53 AM
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Coffee Talk:

After a long hiatus ...Coffee Talk is back on the air.....* APPLAUSE*

Idee is very sorry that he dropped the ball on keeping up with personal forecasts but it's a long story...

Now that this winter has had a much different start to it than last year...we will see if it continue to progress away from the lingering effects of a very strong La Nina signal. A pattern of Pacific Ocean warmth was building all last year...causing many to believe that El Nino was well on it's way...I was somewhat taken aback because when everyone jumps on the bandwagon then that usually means that the outcome is a little in doubt...The waters were warming in a paradoxical pattern to the standard El Nino...a weakness in the convection near Indonesia has sent several Kelvin waves of warmer waters Eastward...the coastal waters off South America warmed up very quickly, but the middle equatorial latitudes were slower...then abruptly the warming stopped as an echo Kelvin (upwelling ) wave came through that I believe was the back flow of the quick original warm up...ie; the return of the La Nina water as a result of such a deep warm water surge that began early in the year...

My idea is that we will remain somewhat neutral SST conditions until another Kelvin wave is generated in the next couple of months...winds are already steadily showing Eastern Anomalies around Borneo in the tropical Pacific and the main convection area is shifted back towards Sumatra and the Eastern Indian Ocean basin....If the polar pattern becomes more favorable the pacific jet stream should soon become much more highly active...and I do think there is a possibility of a warming in the Central equatorial basin...especially as OLR radiation is actually increasing in this area for the first time in a long time.
The sloshing of the Pacific Ocean is never completely neutral...it just hovers around the 'normal' as the phasing of different wind and ocean energies phase together (El Nino or La Nina) or are more haphazard...more variational pattern...of the so-called neutral ENSO conditions....

Lastly this is just a rant to get me started for the year



--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Jan 15 2013, 10:15 PM
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Coffee Talk:


After two weeks of cold...I have had it! Below freezing temps were reported widespread over the San Francisco Bay Area for the last several days....the highs have been struggling to get out of the 40's!

This is a very cold period that California has been stuck in with a blocking high to our West and a pool of cold Canadian air stuck in place without any mixing to move the air much. A gradual warming trend due to a thermal trough developing offshore should send daytime temps back to Normal range and even above normal temps in the daytime...nights will still be cool but not the freezing temps that were routinely in the 20's...one of the coldest periods since Dec. 1990.

Checking on the latest ENSO diagnostic discussion from the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) has said we are still in a ENSO neutral but there are some interesting side notes I gathered from the talk.

An active MJO has been progressing across the equatorial Pacific...the CPC says this is partially to blame for the La Nina-like conditions across the West Coast lately....a large area of cool water has been found in the eq. Eastern Pacific...due mainly to the upwelling phase of the last Kelvin wave...after the large SST gains we had during 2012 it is not surprising that the 'cooling' phase of the Kelvin waves has brought back a strong taste of the previous La Nina....oceans have a very long memory and the transferring of the colder water to the surface will give it a chance to dissipate as a new Kelvin wave (Downwelling-warm-phase) should be generated soon and begin to moderate the cooler SST's in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean (Enso 3.4)

As the recent SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) drags cooler air South from the poles..I look for an abrupt pattern change in the West. Eventually a storm or two will finally break down some the resistance the stubborn high has had in the interior West and the Pacific jet stream may bring a lot of moisture in from a very active Northwestern Pacific Ocean feed. This should send the pattern back into a more normal amplified pattern which could benefit not only the WC with rain and storms...but give the mid-Atlantic and NorthEast a chance for some nice moisture laden storms.

Now if it just warms up a bit and the Giant storm off of Japan and Kamchatka progresses across the Pacific then we can Paraphrase Ronald Reagan "Energy from Gorbachev's home...Break down that Ridge" laugh.gif


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Oct 16 2013, 06:47 AM
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Coffee Talk?

So I haven't said a word on here for 10 months.....

And the weather in California has responded by being one of the All-Time driest years ever! (Yearly Totals)( Not the rain season July-June Totals)

Nevertheless ( I like that word) .....It is beginning to look like this winter will be an improvement from last year's meager rain and storm frequency, only early season rains ( November and December) saved the State from an all out drought.

I plan on posting a California Winter forecast, and maybe a National forecast, and since this is Personal Weather forecasts, I will include a bunch of hubris, hype, and old style conjecture......

Be Well and "Talk Amongst Yourselves" ....Ta Ta for now.....


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Oct 23 2013, 03:10 AM
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Coffee Talk


Fall is definitely in the air....In Northern California that means pleasant daytime highs in the 70's and 80's away from the coast, foggy cooler along the coast with late sunshine and temps in the 60's to low 70's.
The nights are cooling now that we are well past the Autumnal Equinox, the temps have been in 40's and 50's with Felton a cool 42 degrees at 8 AM this morning when I got home...

A large blocking High Pressure is off the West Coast but a little bit of a spin is developing in the lower edges of the High. A bit of moisture from the Southern branch of the jet stream is trying to make inroads into the Upper Baja Peninsula and maybe far Southern California. This type of blocking High is very common off the California coast in early Fall, when we often get our so-called 'Indian Summer' weather.

By late next week some of the models are showing troughing off of the West Coast, which may signal the beginning of a change in the jet stream flow, bringing some moisture into California. Hopefully this year will be a wetter year in California, with at least a few big storms to fill the reservoirs and build up the snow pack in the Sierras. Exiting two very dry years in a row, this is a crucial year for water managers around the State. Another year of drought could cause major cut-backs in water shipments across the State, which can lead to farming issues, water restrictions, and perhaps mandatory cutbacks on many water uses.

A State that has a large population with already perilous water supplies does not need another year of drought.

Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 675.05K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hopefully the strong energy moving across the Pacific Ocean can at least put a dent in the big HP so that the next system can make headway into at least far Northern California. In a 'typical' Fall the first few storms riding the jet do not dip very far south and only the tail end of the fronts drag down as far as the Bay Area. As the polar jet gets stronger and if the blocking weakens, then fronts can make a little more of a southern push before the lows get pulled up into Canada by the jet stream. If this year stays as a neutral to neutral-warm ENSO state, then we should get a variety of pattern evolution of the course of the Fall/Winter season. Warm dry periods, with blocking high pressure, and then several days of storminess before the next ridge builds in to give us drier weather for our typical mid-Winter cool, dry pattern.

If some of the main facilitators of California's rainy pattern concur, a PNA-, a little more amplitude to the storms riding the jet stream, with a possibly warming Eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean may give us a much better rain chance after the first of the Year....We shall see......

More updates to come ....including Idee's 'handicapping' report about this Winter...and of course....

Coffee! laugh.gif


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Oct 23 2013, 04:07 AM
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Coffee Break____

FYI : I 'borrowed' these from the "October 30-31 Rockies/Plains/MW Storm" thread started by ousom. Thanks wink.gif

Attached File  V1sMZks.png ( 379.6K ) Number of downloads: 0


....drought conditions continue......

....and the low pressure potentially off the California coast the end of October....

Attached File  cWhlOZV.png ( 42.63K ) Number of downloads: 0


....this would signal a chance for a trough, ridge, trough set up across the CONUS...Rain Cali, storms EC ?


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Nov 11 2013, 04:05 AM
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Coffee Talk: With your host Bill Starbuck (The Rainmaker wink.gif ) substituting for Paul Baldwin

Well .....we still haven't gotten ant significant rainfall in the Bay Area. mad.gif

The models have been tempting and taunting California for two weeks now ...and barely even a drop of rain.
I don't know if it is just me, but Californians are irritated...

Anaheim had to put up with an 89F degree day in the month of November!
What a shame...Southern California is doing it's usual impression of a breezy, sunny vacation destination for people trying to escape the cold.
For natives and long term Californians ...This is getting OLD!

Drought is becoming more and more of an issue. Rainfall has been scant for nearly two years and does not look promising as the storm to our north and west is not progressing with any energy towards the coast. The upper air pattern is blazing across the Northern tier with cold air from Canada pushing south now that the intense sub-tropical HP has waned and cold air can dive into the CONUS, especially east of the Rockies.

Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 714.68K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hopefully the big heights in the atmosphere will keep pushing moisture south until California actually gets some phasing of the jet with a moisture feed to bring some drought-busting rains to the State. Until then every little bit will help, but another well-below 'normals' rainy season could cause major havoc next year across the entire Desert Southwest, Southern California and most of Northern California unless we have significant rainfall, and snowpack levels return to normal to above-normal...

All of this Drought talk has made me very uptight....I think I am getting Verklempt....can't speak...

Topic for discussion: Drought and the economic and social effects on the future of California....

Talk amongst yourselves......BYE for now...


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Nov 13 2013, 05:35 AM
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Coffee Talk:


Today's Host is Linda Richman


So the Bay Area was once again teased with the potential for rain and instead got a falling apart front.
We had a nice southerly breeze, plenty of clouds but no lift or energy to make it rain, just a few spritzles..

Now the high pressure is building back with possibly above average temps and offshore breezes.

The large low pressure north of Hawaii is retrograding a bit and really trying to wreak havoc with all of the upper air patterns...the main flow is still well north but something odd (or all too familiar) is brewing in the Eastern Pacific...Speaking of brewing...it must be time for some nice hot coffee...... wink.gif

Coffee Break: While we are on break...let's discuss a subject.....

Barbra Streisand !
Headlines!


Glamour Magazine's "Lifetime Achievement" award presented at Carnegie Hall

NY Daily News says last gig earned her a cool $2.3 Million ! And her voice was better than ever....

Okay, okay....Back to topic

Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 784.13K ) Number of downloads: 0


This mess shown on the WV loop shows the indecision in the Pacific...with echos of dry weather potentially until Thanksgiving in California (according to many models and suites)....

Let's hope the heating in the Nino.4 and Nino 3,4 areas continues....a surprise could be in the works for the second half of this Winter....as the Underwater heat anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific are rising and slowly pushing Westward...it remains to be seen what this means ....but....a large push of warmer water at depth is often the precursor of a warming signal in the Eq. Eastern Pacific Ocean...whether this leads to the infamous "El Nino" conditions is up to the scientists who confirm the past....but something major is going on in my estimation....

Attached File  wkxzteq_anm.gif ( 140.71K ) Number of downloads: 0
(Thanks to Noreaster07's post in Long Range Fall Outlooks) wink.gif

Enough...no one reads this much anyway....I'm sure everyone got lost at 'Streisand'.... laugh.gif

Before I have a breakdown from thinking of her skin like "Butter"....I must go.....

Topic: El Nino or El Nada?....what the heck is going on?

This post has been edited by idecline: Nov 13 2013, 09:09 AM


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Nov 18 2013, 06:50 AM
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Coffee Talk:
Linda Richman substituting for Paul Baldwin


RAIN!


Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 703.81K ) Number of downloads: 0


Starting Perking Up! Something is Brewing in the Pacific! Real CoffeeShop Weather returning to the Left Coast!

Hey...this is Personal Weather Discussions and I mean to get personal.... laugh.gif

Rain is coming...rain is coming....After 60 rainless days (more or less) the SF Bay Area is on schedule to get some rain...the usual front sliding south situation with more generous amounts further north... with higher amounts in the 'Orographic' lift areas (mountains of the North Bay and especially Santa Cruz Mountains if the front can drag it's tired self down here). dry.gif

Happy Happy ! Joy Joy! ......My take is that the usual is very likely...but if the southern portion of this storm gets energized..there may be more than an inch of rain in the favored locations and even a spritzle down as far as Pt. Conception...or further south....

Can't have too high of hopes....."I've Got High Hopes".......*singing now*.... rolleyes.gif

I am getting light-headed and dizzy....I think I'm getting Verklempt...Can't talk.....

Today Topic: Thanksgiving and the first Day of Hanukkah coincide...???
Cranberry Jelly Doughnuts? Turkey Wishbone Dreidels?
Discuss.........


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Nov 19 2013, 06:01 AM
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Coffee Break:

Just a short little interlude...While we wait for the rain to slowly edge it's way south to the Santa Cruz area.

Not much to report, it was chilly and clear at 11pm, now it is clouding up but the air still feels dry and no hint of a moist south wind as yet....figure that the rain is another 4-6 hours away from our area...

In The Meanwhile:

I was over at the LRC thread earlier and we were talking Rossby waves:

Attached File  index.jpg ( 4.77K ) Number of downloads: 0
courtesy: OSNW3lrc.blogspot.com/

I understood the Rossby waves that separate the areas of warmer and cooler air, but I had always thought more of an Earth wearing an ill-fitting toupee that shifts side to side, with a stray hair here or there, and is generally shifting about but with a definite shape, pattern, and 'hair'-style....

In short...all this to say that the expected cool shot of weather in NA is because the 'wig' of cool air has shifted to our side of the globe....and it looks to get 'pretty hairy' for some....

Back to update if it rains before 7am PST....... wink.gif


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Nov 20 2013, 09:19 AM
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Rain Talk: with today's guest : ... Albert Hammond

Q (from today's host Linda Richman): So Mr. Hammond do you feel responsible for "It never rains in Southern California" causing the drought and lack of rain in SoCal since the release of your song?

A: Are you talking since original release in 1972 or re-releases in 1996?

Q; (laughs) I was kidding you. Everyone knows it is all the movie stars 'hot air' that keeps the rain away...

A: (chuckles) Yeah

Q: What kind of coffee do you drink Albert?

A: (Walks out of interview)

Ok, that went well and it has rained in Central California and it may be on the way today for SoCal !

So much for that Albert Hammond fella, he knows nothing about weather....

Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 664.22K ) Number of downloads: 0


Here's to the split flow folks...have fun on the EC as the models go crazy trying to figure this one out.. dry.gif



--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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OSNW3
post Nov 21 2013, 02:33 PM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Nov 19 2013, 06:01 AM) *
Coffee Break:

Just a short little interlude...While we wait for the rain to slowly edge it's way south to the Santa Cruz area.

Not much to report, it was chilly and clear at 11pm, now it is clouding up but the air still feels dry and no hint of a moist south wind as yet....figure that the rain is another 4-6 hours away from our area...

In The Meanwhile:

I was over at the LRC thread earlier and we were talking Rossby waves:

Attached File  index.jpg ( 4.77K ) Number of downloads: 0
courtesy: OSNW3lrc.blogspot.com/

I understood the Rossby waves that separate the areas of warmer and cooler air, but I had always thought more of an Earth wearing an ill-fitting toupee that shifts side to side, with a stray hair here or there, and is generally shifting about but with a definite shape, pattern, and 'hair'-style....

In short...all this to say that the expected cool shot of weather in NA is because the 'wig' of cool air has shifted to our side of the globe....and it looks to get 'pretty hairy' for some....

Back to update if it rains before 7am PST....... wink.gif


It's all a part of the pattern. smile.gif


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idecline
post Nov 25 2013, 09:51 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Nov 21 2013, 02:33 PM) *
It's all a part of the pattern. smile.gif


rolleyes.gif Thanks for the visit... and speaking of patterns....

Coffee Talk:



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Here's the WV loop from early Monday morning...a N/S orientated trof is nearing the coast of California but it is being shunted by high pressure along the coast and over the Great Basin. This energy appears to be split with most of the moisture going up and over the ridge into the main flow from the north. The second low out above Hawaii is caught in a very fast flow with some dry air entrained, it may follow the weakness the first low tries to establish in the ridge. Unsure as to the development of an actual 'storm' but some energy will be cut-off and send clouds into Southern and Central California on Thanksgiving, with possible showers (mostly South). Tomorrow's satellite and WV loop will show where the flow is heading as the system in the Mid-section of the CONUS starts to wind up along the Gulf Coast. This should send the HP over the Great Basin east which could open the door to rain....

We had a decent storm late last week and hopefully it is the beginning of a rainy season more 'normal' than the last two....




--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Nov 27 2013, 04:19 AM
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Coffee Talk:

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The little low that could is now developing off of the California coast..... It should provide some Turkey Day precipitation along the Southern half of the California coast on Thanksgiving into Friday.
The real story however is all of the energy lining up in the Pacific basin...some very rich looking storms are starting to develop in the wave train across the Pacific. The storm NW of Hawaii is sending an occluded front northward but it appears the main low wants to follow the energy of this first weaker system into the West Coast. With the potential of a steady flow of moisture off the Pacific and upper level steering winds set to impact the West, we could be in for our first series of wet storms to impact the California coast in nearly a year. And if this is going to be a pattern that has some longevity...we could be seeing what is the wet first half of December ( and February also(LRC talking?) ) .....

Talking of LRC....my California 'Fore' (as in golf) - Cast is about to be unleashed, and like in Golf if I hook, slice, or even duff the shot...no matter what 'I am going for the green'..... laugh.gif

I am so excited that I can't even speak, I'm getting Verklempt at the prospect of a real rainy season....

A topic for discussion until I calm down and return with 'A Winter Weather Handicapping Tout Sheet'....

Topic: Real Winter storms....will they arrive and fill our reservoirs and give an adequate snowpack..

Discuss......



--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Nov 27 2013, 07:42 AM
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Coffee Talk:

Preliminary Winter Weather Handicap....

Okay Coffee Drinkers...get ready.....The 'Organic" crowd is calling for a large -PNA the first part of December...with cold air sweeping system down through the Northwest into the Great Basin and beyond...

Colder than average temperatures will settle across most the CONUS from West to East for the first two weeks of December....with the Sierras and Rockies getting good snows to hopefully open ski seasons across the West. California is always on the edge of any major cold air influx...especially depending on the trajectory of systems and how much cold air makes it to the West of the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

A general zonal to split zonal flow should prevail as warmer air trapped in Canada will not allow for a huge amplification of the jet stream. Eventually a ridge will build back in the West which will re-amplify the jet as far as storms for the East Coast being concerned...

December:

Dec. 1- 7 : Active storm track off the Pacific, sending cool, moisture-laden storms down through the Northwest. California will be impacted with rain and mountain snows every 3-4 days, with brief 'dirty' ridging between storms.

Dec. 8-15 : Storm track tends even a little more southerly with Southern California getting some generous rainfall and pushing cold snows into the Southern Sierras, higher mountains of Arizona and New Mexico. Temperatures will be slightly below normal, but nighttime temps will remain more moderate except for clear nights after frontal passages.

Dec. 16-23 : Last wet storm may come through around 18-19 of Dec. and it may be time for our usual Mid-Winter stagnant high to build in...(unless a 'longshot' comes into play...(more later on longshots)).

Dec.24- Dec. 31: High and dry....stagnant air, tule fog in the Central Valley, hazy mid-Winter dryspell...exception being far, far Northern California and maybe Northern Sierras affected by inside trajectory storms...

2014

January:

Jan. 1-7: Ridging in Pacific holds tough, but potential for changes in Polar air-masses will allow some cold inside sliders to perhaps make their way down the coast...this could be the coldest weather of the year in California until early March....

Jan 8-15: Same stagnant pattern with possible exception of a Southerly based system sneaking into SoCal late in the period...HP will start to wane and a series of wetter storms will again start to line up in the Eastern pacific basin...

Jan. 16- 23: Flow in the upper atmosphere will buckle a bit during this period, sending the fast moving energy up and over diving down into the Rockies and Upper Midwest....we will get a slow moving Pacific (southern jet???) storm that could get a 'Pineapple' connection in the middle of his period...somewhere along the Oregon California border that slowly sags south...the exact bullseye of extended heavy rain showers will not be known until the flow actually sets up...(my guess is between Portland and Eureka, CA then slowly sagging south...)

Jan. 24-31: This could be the beginning of a chance for drought-breaking rainfall to occur in Southern California, with energy from the Southern stream charging into SoCal and giving the Desert Southwest beneficial rainfall...

February:

Feb. 1-7: Very stormy during this period with a highly amplified jet bringing a series of storms from the GOA (-PNA anyone)...Washington and Oregon will not get much of a break, whereas California will get our 'usual' 3 day pattern of rain then drying until next front sags south....

Feb. 8-15: Storms are spaced a little further apart now, as jet energy does not dig as far south...a very large Extra-Tropical cyclone may impact the West during this period, with repercussions across the entire CONUS...

Feb. 16- 28: Back to California high and dry...potential pattern change occurring in Equatorial Pacific Ocean as hints are that an El Nino type surge of warm water may be in place to amplify March storms and really give the reservoirs and snowpack a chance to replenish California's water woes...

March could be the beginning of what I feel is a long term warming regime building as an El Nino is possibly ramping up for Fall of 2014...March could bring flooding rains to California, and get Texas and some other drought ravaged areas back to less severe conditions of drought...

A possible Nor'Easter could charge up the EC in early March if the waters do keep warming in Nino 3.4 region and another Kelvin wave drops the thermocline off the South American coast...this would be the first signal of a full blown 'El Nino' type warming...

LONGSHOTS: ENSO----definitely a 'wild' card....it is showing either the beginning of an 'El Nino' style warm up or if the cold water (along with the -EPO) overwhelm the Nino effects and send us back to La Nada...I don't see another extended La Nina phase unless the cold waters off the South American coast have too much persistence (long term cold pockets) from the crazy cold temperatures they have been at for many months...

SSW: Too many pattern flips in upper stratosphere in last few years...on pure gut-feeling I think there will be a dearth of activity as far as breaking up the PV this year..but I am just learning of the widespread effects that these SSW's can have...but without extreme blocking events like we had last Winter...I don't feel that the atmosphere will have to do anything 'radical' to even out the large temperature differences between poles and equatorial regions...

Warm water pooling: I feel that there will a lot of moisture to be gained from the GOM this Winter, with a dearth of Tropical activity in the Atlantic basin and GOM this past season...all of that 'unused' energy has go somewhere...a couple of late season Nor'Easter's may take of that, along with storms linking up big moisture taps of the Gulf when the troughs dig deep enough to channel that moisture up the EC.

ODDS; 3/5- Normal Rainfall... 6/5- Above Average Rainfall.....2/1- Below Normal Rainfall
6/1- Well Above Avg. Rainfall....12/1- Well Below Avg. Rainfall 20/1- Drought....30/1- Flooding Rains


California- Precipitation________________Temperatures

North Coast.... Normal/Above ...... Below/Normal
N. Sierras.... Above/Well Above ....... Below/Well Below
Bay Area.... Normal/ slightly below.... Normal
Sacramento Valley.... Above .... Above/Normal
San Joaquin Valley.... Normal .... Normal/Below
LA Basin.... Normal .......... Above/Normal
Deserts.... Above ........... Below
Southern Sierra.... Above ........ Below/Average

Disclaimer:
This is not a "Forecast" or intended to be so...It is only a 'handicapping' tool to be taken with a grain of salt...
I only relied on memory, Accuweather ( especially LRC, BSR, and TR), and trends of climate that are possible....
Remember that the weather is Chaotic, meaning predictably 'unpredictable'... but patterns do exist and the jet stream has 'features' that it likes to be 'attracted' to. In the more stable (contradictory to logic) years of strong El Nino's or La Nina's, then California has very distinct weather patterns. In the La Nada years the weather is more variable (unpredictable) and has many swings of wet/dry patterns...

This is for entertainment purposes only .... and for Problem Weather Forecasting call your Local Weather Addiction services ..... laugh.gif

Back soon with corrections and updates...had to get this in before Dec. 1st....2 hours sitting at the desk...

It's the Coffee Talk-ing... blink.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Nov 29 2013, 02:59 AM


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Dec 3 2013, 05:59 AM
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(Iced)! Coffee Talk:

Today's Guest (Ghost) Host is Lowell George (April 13, 1945 – June 29, 1979):

Cold, Cold, Cold


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The second song on the Classic Little Feat album Sailin' Shoes says it all....Cold, Cold, Cold

There's a freeze watch for the entire SF Bay Area ( except SF Metro ) :
QUOTE



...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* TIMING: 9 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 9 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS: THE ENTIRE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY REGION EXCEPT FOR THE CITY OF SAN FRANCISCO.

* IMPACTS: FROST ADVISORIES AND OR FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY WITH THIS EARLY SEASON COLD SNAP. LONG DURATIONS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN KILL CROPS AND SENSITIVE VEGETATION...HARM PETS AND LIVESTOCK AND COULD CAUSE UNPROTECTED WATER PIPES TO BURST. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA FOR THOSE LIVING OUTSIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&


So be careful out there....'It's So Easy To Slip'.....but "I'll Be Willin', to be movin'..... wink.gif

Thanks for the heads up, Lowell rolleyes.gif
So if you are drivin' from 'Tucson to Tucumcari, Tehachapi to Tonapah'.......better "Put on your Sailin' Shoes"

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Here comes that Arctic front with light precipitation amounts possible Tuesday in the Bay Area, followed by very cold temperatures Wednesday into Thursday, another chance of rain? Friday and perhaps a good soaking by Sunday .....

TOPIC: Bring in your plants, pets, and hope the homeless go to local shelters during this dangerous cold...Discuss....

It is a light rain just starting to fall in Santa Cruz as of 3AM PST......

This post has been edited by idecline: Dec 3 2013, 06:03 AM


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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