The LRC Thread, How has it stacked up? Options

[Gilbertfly]

After researching the LRC fairly in depth it looks like we may be coming up on a signature storm event for the Upper Midwest within the cycle.

The first storm of the cycle was October 26th . . .

Here is a picture of "fantasy land" GFS a couple weeks prior to the storm, specifically hour 372 from October 11th. . .

 post_16713_1286772739.gif ( 36.79K ) Number of downloads: 10

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...t&p=1072627

And here is what came on October 26th . . .

 sfcpress_21ZOct26.jpg ( 299.28K ) Number of downloads: 8

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/

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The second storm was on December 11th and 12th . . .

Here is a picture of "fantasy land" GFS a couple weeks prior to the storm, specifically hour 288 from December 2nd. . .

 288_12_12_storm.gif ( 87.14K ) Number of downloads: 8

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...t&p=1107504

And here is what came around the December 11th - 12th . . .

 10Dec11_18Zsfcmap.gif ( 44.73K ) Number of downloads: 8

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/

As this storm occurred, it "set the cycle" at about 47 - 49 days. That would take us to right around January 27th - 29th. If we were to look at what GFS fantasy land has pegged for that time period it shows something quite similiar to the previous two signature storms.

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So here is a look at what could end up being the "January 27th -29th" signature storm somewhere in the Upper Midwest. . .

Here is a picture of "fantasy land" GFS a couple weeks prior to the storm, specifically hour 336 from January 14th . . .

 gfs_ten_336l.gif ( 115.91K ) Number of downloads: 7

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Time will tell where this storm ends up or IF it occurs, however it has been showing up for a few runs now. . .

There are more comparisons that can be made through these cycles. . .most of which can be found within the threads that i linked above. . .

Remember that the LRC is based off of upper air patterns and that does not always translate to surface conditions. . .

But it is an interesting concept and I invite anyone to take a look and add anything relevant!

Stay tuned . . .

This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Jan 17 2011, 07:50 PM

[jdrenken]

Great job on the write up!

[Gilbertfly]

Here are a couple more things to look at as we get towards the January 27th - 29th time frame. . .


Again, don't expect things to match up precisely the same on the surface. . .

Follow the upper air patterns and we shall see if anything varifies . . .

The model for these first two pics is the ECMWF 12Z from December 2nd. . .

Hour 216
 ECMWF_12Z_12_2_2010_hr216.gif ( 67.19K ) Number of downloads: 5



and here it is at . . .
Hour 240
 ECMWF_12Z_12_2_2010_hr240.gif ( 70.61K ) Number of downloads: 4



The model for these next pics is the GFS 12Z from December 2nd . . .

Hour 228
 GFS_12z_12_2_2010_hour228.gif ( 50.33K ) Number of downloads: 2





and at hour 240 it goes OTS . . .

Hour 240
 GFS_12z_12_2_2010_hour240.gif ( 77.85K ) Number of downloads: 4


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All of these model runs are roughly ten days out from the second signature storm (December 11th December 12th). . .

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...p;#entry1107504

This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Jan 17 2011, 07:51 PM

[Gilbertfly]

Here are a couple more things to look at

500 millibar maps for -12 days from signature storm. . .

Here is the 500 millibar for October 14th
 500oct141.jpg ( 143.21K ) Number of downloads: 1

http://www.weather.gov/climate/

Here is the 500 millibar map for December 1st
 500dec1.jpg ( 139.81K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.weather.gov/climate/

Here is today's 500 millibar map (January 15th)
 dwm500_test_20110115.gif ( 47.03K ) Number of downloads: 1

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20110115.html

This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Jan 17 2011, 06:17 PM

[jdrenken]

By the way...

Here is the link to the LRC Theory.

[Gilbertfly]

As a heads up for the storm coming up in the MW/GL/OV for the time period of January 17th - 19th http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=24837. . .

watch for correlations between this storm and the MW/GL/OV November 28th - December 1st storm http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...=23831&st=0

In no way, shape, or form should these maps or the "Nov/Dec" thread be used as a forcast for precip type or amounts for the January 17th -19th storm. . .

As a reminder, here is a precip map for the MW/GL/OV for the storm on November 28th - December 1st. . .

 nov_28th___dec_1st_precip_totals.bmp ( 469.8K ) Number of downloads: 12



http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsst...88&source=2

Here is a fairly close comparison at the 500 millibar for January 16th 0z and one for November 27th 0z


January 16th . . .
 dwm500_test_20110116.gif ( 49K ) Number of downloads: 1



http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20110116.html

And November 27th . . .
 dwm500_test_20101127.gif ( 48.76K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20101127.html

This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Jan 17 2011, 06:26 PM

[Gilbertfly]

Moving over to the Mid Atlantic and East Coast . . . let's take a look at the X-Mas storm

Remember the cycle was set with signature storms in the MW on October 26th and December 12th. . .

Let's look at the +13 to +15 date range . . .

First use this thread to look at some of the more finite details of what occurred on and around November 8th http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=23528

and take a look at the 500 millibar for November 8th

 dwm500_test_20101108.gif ( 48.79K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20101108.html (click this link for more maps)

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If you need any reminders on the December 26th storm, look at this thread http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=24320

and take a look at the 500 millibar for December 27th

 dwm500_test_20101227.gif ( 53.02K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20101227.html (click this link for more maps)


So if you use a data set for +13 to +15 days following a signature storm. . .this would lead us to believe that there is a possibility for a similiar set up on or around February 9th. As this timeframe comes into range on the models, we should watch the model trends that occurred leading up to these two previous storms for the Mid Atlantic and East Coast and compare.

This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Jan 17 2011, 06:07 PM

[Gilbertfly]

there could be correlations between these sytems . . .

December 3rd - 5th in the MW http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...3784&st=480
December 5th - 6th in the EC http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...&start=1920

and these systems . . .

January 18th - 21st in the MW http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=24916
January 21st - 24th in the EC http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=24902

-----------------------

Here is a refresher map of what occurred in the MW

 24_hour_snowfall_valid_at_7_am_12_04_2010.png ( 279.42K ) Number of downloads: 1



http://www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/?n=dec0310#maps



Again, what occured at the surface with the December system from the MW to the EC will be different from what occurs this upcoming week . . .

but it is simply used to display a possible match between upper air patterns and how they impacted weather in the CONUS . . .

another thing to note is the cold air that came into the MW behind this system in December. The same is expected in the Eastern 1/3 - 1/2 of the country after this system sweeps through next week.

500 millibar of Dec 6th . . .

 dwm500_test_20101206.gif ( 50.13K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20101206.html (click link for more maps)

This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Jan 17 2011, 06:31 PM

[jdrenken]

Something else to consider is how the models overplayed the cold air that came behind the systems in late November and early December when it was first showing up. Don't get me wrong, it's going to be cold.

[Gilbertfly]

Something else to consider is how the models overplayed the cold air that came behind the systems in late November and early December when it was first showing up. Don't get me wrong, it's going to be cold.

Very true . . . It ended up being a more moderate brand of cold then what was advertised by the models days earlier . . . it will be interesting to see if that varifies this time as well, as the models are again starting to trend away from the brutal cold that was advertised a few days ago. . .

as you stated though . . . still expecting some arctic air to filter on in

[Regionrat]

Great thread, and a good learning tool for a fellow like myself,

[Gilbertfly]

Great thread, and a good learning tool for a fellow like myself,

Thanks for stopping by . . . feel free to add similiarities or differences that you see in upcoming weather patterns!

[Gilbertfly]

Here is a very useful link when trying to find archived information to use for your own analysis . . .

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive/

As a start, you may want to punch in October 24th 2010 . . . set the "extra days" to 4 and the "max frames" to 240 . . .

From there go ahead and cycle through the different options you have available to you . . .

One that i recommend is the SatSfcComposit

This shows the evolution of our first signature storm

Now, try doing the same with the second signature storm . . . use a date of December 10th 2010. . .

If you really feel ambitious, open two seperate windows and put them side by side and watch the loops at the same time. . .this gives a nice side by side view of the evolution of our two signature systems.

This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Jan 17 2011, 12:23 PM

[Gilbertfly]

Here's a quick 500 millibar update looking at the end of the week comparisons. . .

specifically these systems . . .

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=24916 for the MW Jan 18th - Jan 21st
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=24902 for the EC Jan 21st - Jan 22nd

here is January 17th 18z GFS at hour 96. . .(Jan 21st 2011)

 gfs_namer_096_500_vort_ht_01_21_2011.gif ( 56.3K ) Number of downloads: 0


look at the similarities between what is projected for January 21st (above) and what actually occurred on December 2nd 2010 (below) . . .

 dwm500_test_20101202.gif ( 47.17K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20101202.html (click link for more maps)


In earlier posts it was brought up that, per the LRC, these two systems appear to be lining up quite well. Remember, it is important not to focus on surface elements when comparing past and current systems. Follow the upper air patters.


If you want to look through what happened with those systems check here . . .

December 3rd - 5th in the MW http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...3784&st=480
December 5th - 6th in the EC http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...&start=1920

This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Jan 17 2011, 06:29 PM

[Gilbertfly]

There might be a correlation between the clipper that is showing up on recent model runs around January 21st - 22nd . . .

to this system that swept through the Upper MW and EC December 8th - 11th. . .

in the MW . . . http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=24035

on the EC . . . http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=24097

[Gilbertfly]

As a heads up for the storm coming up in the MW/GL/OV for the time period of January 17th - 19th http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=24837. . .

watch for correlations between this storm and the MW/GL/OV November 28th - December 1st storm http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...=23831&st=0

This same system is now affecting the EC . . .

here is the current thread for this . . .

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=24960

Just as we did in the MW . . . let's look at the comparisons on the EC now . . .

The January 17th - 19th EC storm (linked above) would correlate with the system that affected the EC in the November 30th - December 2nd timeframe

Here is the thread for that storm for a refresher . . .

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=23848

Here is a precip map for December 2nd . . .

 dwm_p24i_20101202.gif ( 10.46K ) Number of downloads: 0




Also, here is the 500 millibar for December 2nd . . .

 dwm500_test_20101202.gif ( 47.17K ) Number of downloads: 0




Also, here is the 500 millibar for January 16th. . .

 dwm500_test_20110116.gif ( 49K ) Number of downloads: 0





Use this link for the pictures above and also to see more maps for these time frames. . .

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20110116.html

[Gilbertfly]

Here is quick recap of the system that came through the MW starting December 3rd and and finished affecting the EC around the December 6th - 7th. . .

Here are the surface maps for this time frame. . .the system we are watching for a correlation (to the January 18th - 22nd affecting the MW to the EC) is located in Montana on December 3rd . . .

So we will start with December 3rd . . .

 sfcplot_sm_20101203.gif ( 33.43K ) Number of downloads: 0




December 4th . . .

 sfcplot_sm_20101204.gif ( 33.54K ) Number of downloads: 0




December 5th . . .

 sfcplot_sm_20101205.gif ( 33.76K ) Number of downloads: 0




December 6th . . .

 sfcplot_sm_20101206.gif ( 34.6K ) Number of downloads: 0




December 7th . . .

 sfcplot_sm_20101207.gif ( 31.81K ) Number of downloads: 0



link for the above maps and access to more info on these days . . .

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20101203.html


Again, this system is potentially lining up with the system affecting the MW - EC January 18th - January 22nd. . .

here are the current threads open for this system . . .

MW . . . http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=24916

EC . . . http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=24902

[Gilbertfly]

As the models have been telling us . . . it looks like there is some cold air plunging into the MW which will slide to the East in the wake of the system coming though January 18th - January 22nd. . .

Recall that this system matches up with the system that came though December 3rd - 6th/7th . . .

Here is a look at how temperatures plumeted following this system back in December . . .

December 4th Min/Max temps . . .

 colormaxmin_20101204.gif ( 15.83K ) Number of downloads: 0





December 5th Min/Max temps . . .

 colormaxmin_20101205.gif ( 16K ) Number of downloads: 0




December 6th Min/Max temps . . .

 colormaxmin_20101206.gif ( 16.16K ) Number of downloads: 0




December 7th Min/Max temps . . .

 colormaxmin_20101207.gif ( 16.17K ) Number of downloads: 0




December 8th Min/Max temps . . .

 colormaxmin_20101208.gif ( 16.26K ) Number of downloads: 0




December 9th Min/Max temps . . .

 colormaxmin_20101209.gif ( 16.46K ) Number of downloads: 0



http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20101210.html


Again, recall that surface OBS may be different each time the cycle repeats itself, but the upper air movements are nearly the same. One factor that may alter surface differences is the fact that there was a fresh, deep snowpack (in the Upper MW down towards the OV) that had fallen with the system that brought this cold air in. The fresh snowpack being delivered by the January 19th - 22nd system is setting up in a different location. Therefore night time lows will differ accordingly.

This is an example why the LRC should only be looked at for the upper air patterns and not strictly what happens at the surface. . .

One other thing to note is the moderation of temps in the Lower Plains as we reach the December 9th timeframe. This is setting the stage for what became the second signature storm on December 11th - 12th. . .

As of current model runs. . .the same moderation is forcast to occur, therefore, it looks like our cycle is still at or around 47 days.

This weekend's cold air looks to be taking us into our signature storm on or around the 27th of January still.

This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Jan 19 2011, 12:39 PM

[Gilbertfly]

There might be a correlation between the clipper that is showing up on recent model runs around January 21st - 22nd . . .

to this system that swept through the Upper MW and EC December 8th - 11th. . .

in the MW . . . http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=24035

on the EC . . . http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=24097

A thread has now been opened for this clipper impacting the MW/GL/OV January 20th - 23rd. . . .

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=24976

[Gilbertfly]

There has been some new information released over the last few days by Gary Lezak over in The Drum Room in regards to where we are within' the cycle. . .

http://lrcweather.com/index.php?option=com...4&Itemid=29


I also noticed that there has been a lot of chat in the last few days regarding the LRC. . .

I feel that it is important to keep things in perspective. The LRC is not meant to undermine the concept of forecasting. It is meant to be used as an ADDITIONAL tool when analyzing all of the data that is available to us while creating a forecast.

Other tools that are used include models, tools, "experts" and their interpretations, teleconnections, etc.

All the LRC does is too to identify cycles of upper air patterns. . . It is up to you and I to take some information from that, apply it to current surface readings, teleconnections, and ALL of the tools. . .to come up with our own forcast of what will fall from the sky and when (or if you are like me, when it will be 80 degrees and sunny ).