The LRC Thread, How has it stacked up? Options

[jdrenken]

A look at a few things...

07DEC10


12Z runs...

84hr GGEM


84hr NAM


Day 3 Euro

Attached File(s)

 12z_20JAN11_Day_3_Euro.png ( 78.99K ) Number of downloads: 0

 

[Gilbertfly]

As the models have been telling us . . . it looks like there is some cold air plunging into the MW which will slide to the East in the wake of the system coming though January 18th - January 22nd. . .

. . .

One other thing to note is the moderation of temps in the Lower Plains as we reach the December 9th timeframe. This is setting the stage for what became the second signature storm on December 11th - 12th. . .

The cold air that is to come in has indeed varified this portion of the cycle. Wind Chill Advisories and Warnings have risen for many areas in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. . .

 us.png ( 11.38K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.weather.gov/


For this post I will just show December 4th and December 9th (respectively) strictly as a reminder. . .

 colormaxmin_20101204.gif ( 15.83K ) Number of downloads: 0


 colormaxmin_20101209.gif ( 16.46K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20101209.html

This is also a prime (and obvious) example of why we should not focus on surface observations in regards to the LRC cycle. . .Temps will be colder this time through the cycle. This is due to other circumstances that did not exist during this same portion of the cycle in December. The most obvious one being there is a much deeper snowpack over a wider area this time around. Therefore temps will be considerably lower.


It appears that the chill has come a day or so earlier than expected according to the LRC cycle. . .this may translate to the signature storm coming through a day or so ahead of schedule. The cycle itself you usually has a + or - error range of a few days, so this is falling well within exceptable timeframes.

Stay warm everyone!

This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Jan 20 2011, 10:59 PM

[Gilbertfly]

As the model madness continues over what I feel is our next signature storm . . . I invite you all to take a look at a 500 millibar loop from December 10th - 14th . . .

 _gickr.com__25cbf9dd_47c2_d7d4_291e_49416da2a9e1.gif ( 1.1MB ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive/


Match this up to an overall compromise/blend of the models. . .

Things seem to matching up relatively well, as we are still 4 or 5 days away. . .

If you wish to cycle through the other options of surface observations and such (at the link provided above) it can be used as a reminder of what occurred in your backyard, however, I caution using that as any type of prediction as to what is to occur this time around. Precipitation types and exact locations of surface lows will be different, along with temperatures and various other surface observations.

This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Jan 22 2011, 09:52 AM

[TheMaineMan]

Last year the LRC didn't even come close to verifying in my region, and it hasn't so far this winter. Does it only apply to certain regions or something?

[Gilbertfly]

Last year the LRC didn't even come close to verifying in my region, and it hasn't so far this winter. Does it only apply to certain regions or something?

I do not know about last year. I have meerly opened this thread for verifications in the 2010/2011 winter season (per the title). . .

The LRC does not apply to regions, as it is for upper air analysis. . .

May I ask how you came to the conclusion that it has not verified this year thus far? What data are you using for this?

Thanks for the post! And I appreciate you stopping by and adding your imput!

[cary67]

As the model madness continues over what I feel is our next signature storm . . . I invite you all to take a look at a 500 millibar loop from December 10th - 14th . . .

 _gickr.com__25cbf9dd_47c2_d7d4_291e_49416da2a9e1.gif ( 1.1MB ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive/
Match this up to an overall compromise/blend of the models. . .

Things seem to matching up relatively well, as we are still 4 or 5 days away. . .

If you wish to cycle through the other options of surface observations and such (at the link provided above) it can be used as a reminder of what occurred in your backyard, however, I caution using that as any type of prediction as to what is to occur this time around. Precipitation types and exact locations of surface lows will be different, along with temperatures and various other surface observations.

Is this signature storm for the upper midwest a cutter or a clipper gone wild based on your upper air analysis? Never mind I see the image; its another clipper on steroids.

This post has been edited by cary67: Jan 22 2011, 07:40 PM

[Gilbertfly]

Is this signature storm for the upper midwest a cutter or a clipper gone wild based on your upper air analysis? Never mind I see the image; its another clipper on steroids.

Well, it's origins are in the MW, but just as the December storm did. . .it goes on to have implications on the surface over a large portion of the East as well.

If you recall, the signature system did not come with huge snowfalls over a large area of the MW. While there were some sections that received heavy precip and strong winds, that doesn't mean that it will necessarily play out the same way this time around.

The term signature is not meant to make it look like a superbomb or historic event, just that it is usually the system that resets the cycle. (Stressing this for all the readers, and is not directed at you "cary67")

It does seem to come with specific upper air charteristics though . . . which is mostly what i believe you are alluding to. . .

So, to answer your question, it appears that it is indeed stemming from a "clipper on steroids" type of event that really tries to dig towards the south. . .

Here is the 500 millibar for the first signature storm of this cycle on October 26th . . .

 _gickr.com__85f2a209_f42b_3f64_fd02_8073107c4ea9.gif ( 1.06MB ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive/

The October system was able to occlude itself and bomb out over the upper MW.

The December system ended up transferring energy to a developing Low near the East Coast.

We will have to wait and see what our third signature storm has in store for the MW and EC.



Despite answering your own question yourself, thanks for stopping by and checking things out!

[Gilbertfly]

Here is a short excerpt from a longer and more in depth article from Jeremy Nelson @ WISN12 . . .

Here are the basics of the theory:

•A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October 1st and November 10th
•The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer. Identifying the cycle length helps tremendously when making long range weather predictions.
•Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle. These dominant repeating features are a clue to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.
•The LRC is a winter-long pattern! There is a pattern! It isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere

.


http://weatherwatch12.wordpress.com/2011/0...attern-ahead-2/

Jeremy has more maps and explanations in his article linked above. He has been watching the LRC cycle longer than I, so I encourage you to check it out when you have some time!

[Gilbertfly]

It appears as though the next signature storm will not have much of an affect on the system progged to have implications on the EC . . .and will be more simliar to our October signature storm. . .

I will explain here where I ran into a bit of confusion by starting with a look at our first signature storm in October which stayed on it's own in the Upper MW. . .

 stnplot_20101026.gif ( 70.45K ) Number of downloads: 0


The confusion with our third signature storm comes from what occurred during our second signature storm in December. In December a surface low transfered the energy of the our signature storm to a coastal storm on the EC.

Both of these first two signature storms on the surface brought in windy and colder temperatures. The difference is in what affects it had afterwards.

It appears that the timing will not be there this time around for the third signature storm to have much, or any affect on the storm for the EC. Here is a model analysis of our signature storm coming into the Great Lakes region around January 28th . . .

Hour 102 of the GFS 12Z - 10m-Wnd 06hr Pcpn . . . .

 gfs_ten_102l.gif ( 126.08K ) Number of downloads: 0


On various runs, the lowest pressure has been fluctuating. In earlier runs it had been showing a stronger system.

here is the 500 millibar for the same time frame . . .

 gfs_500_102l.gif ( 124.77K ) Number of downloads: 0


I ran into complications with the current timeframe of our current upcoming signature storm because I was trying to line it up with what happened on December 11th - 12th. Had our third signature storm come in a day or so earlier, we may have had a smiliar set up as December.

What happens on the surface during our third signature storm is still up in the air as we will have to see what track and intensity we end up having . . . . also, how much moisture is available.

To sum up, I apoligize for the confusion . . . and it looks like our third signature storm will more resemble the first one in October than the second one in December. (With the exception of the strength. . .as of right now nobody is expecting record breaking pressure falls)

I welcome questions or comments as we continue to analyze the LRC!!

[Gilbertfly]

While i do not want to get too far ahead of our third signature storm before it even occurrs. . .I would like to point out a few upcoming systems and possible correlations that we can watch for verification . . .

Here is the current thread open . . .

Feb. 1-5 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm



This could possibly line up with this system that affected parts of the EC December 19th - 21st. . .

Here are some pics to remind you followed up by the forecast thread for this system . . .

500 millibar for December 20th . . .

 dwm500_test_20101220.gif ( 48.5K ) Number of downloads: 0



500 millibar for December 21st . . .

 dwm500_test_20101221.gif ( 47.47K ) Number of downloads: 0




And some surface maps to jog your memory for. . .

December 19th . . .

 stnplot_20101219.gif ( 68.6K ) Number of downloads: 0



December 20th . . .

 stnplot_20101220.gif ( 68.51K ) Number of downloads: 0



December 21st . . .

 stnplot_20101221.gif ( 66.88K ) Number of downloads: 0



Here was the forecast thread for this system in December . . .
Dec. 19-20 MidAtl/NE Nor'easter, Forecast Thread


The timing of systems on the new cycle is a bit in question until our third signature storm rolls on through, so this will be one to keep an eye on.

And also as a reminder, keep in the back of the mind the timing and correlation between a system effecting the EC around February 9th. This may be the next storm after our third signature storm to truely correlate within the past runs of the cycle. . .

I spoke about this in an earlier post here for more information . . .February 9th EC System (post #7 if it doesn't take you there properly)

EDIT: With the signature storm being pushed forward by a few days, this will need to be revisited after the cycle is reset. Dates may need to be changed.

This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Jan 26 2011, 11:53 PM

[Gilbertfly]

As the next 7 - 10 days look active, I will simply display some 500 millibar maps to give you the general idea of correlations between this upcoming time frame within the cycle and the previous time frames in the two that came before this . . .

First, I will start with the time frame of October 31st - November 3rd

October 31st . . .
 dwm500_test_20101031.gif ( 47.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


November 1st . . .
 dwm500_test_20101101.gif ( 47.88K ) Number of downloads: 0


November 2nd . . .
 dwm500_wbgsm_20101102.gif ( 47.88K ) Number of downloads: 0


November 3rd . . .
 dwm500_test_20101103.gif ( 49.65K ) Number of downloads: 2



And now compare these to the December 22nd - December 25th time frame . . .

December 22nd . . .
 dwm500_test_20101222.gif ( 47.35K ) Number of downloads: 0


December 23rd . . .
 dwm500_test_20101223.gif ( 46.65K ) Number of downloads: 0


December 24th . . .
 dwm500_test_20101224.gif ( 46.62K ) Number of downloads: 0


December 25th . . .
 dwm500_test_20101225.gif ( 51.13K ) Number of downloads: 0


These time frames lead up to larger systems on the EC . . . However they also left interior parts of the CONUS quite active with various systems and over running events that swept on through . . .

Use the link below for further information on these time frames . . .

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20110125.html


Below is a 500 millibar forcast map from GFS that matches up with the end portion of the previous displayed actual 500 millibar maps (Above - November 3rd, December 25th). . .

GFS 6Z (1/26/2011) for February 7th -8th . . .
 gfs_500_324l.gif ( 93.87K ) Number of downloads: 0


Just some stuff to keep an eye on to see how we match up against our first two runs through the cycle.

[Gilbertfly]

Jeremy Nelson at WISN has some thoughts on our upcoming signature storm . . .

From (1/26/2011 at http://weatherwatch12.wordpress.com/ )

It will be fun to watch and see which model(s) change to the final solution(whatever it ends up being). For a long time…since December 18 I believe I said the pattern was closer to 50 days. The strong jet streak recently fooled me a bit in the models for this coming Saturday last weekend into early this week. I thought it was odd that the pattern would jump ahead to about 47 days, but the strong jet streak kept my mind on this Saturday being the ‘signature’ storm.

Today, I looked back to October 22 and then the 54 hour 500mb map from the 18Z GFS…they are very close to one another. Obviously back in October the ‘signature’ storm arrived on the 26-27, now what will happen early next week?

After re-examining the pattern, I think it is possible the EURO and one other model may have a better handle on what’s ahead. When I gain confidence in the forecast for early next week I’ll add more thoughts.

After using the LRC for 5 years I should know to trust it and not question the pattern:) This is a great example of why I say to people to follow the LRC for a year before making a judgement.

. . . .

As stated in the excerpt above, Jeremy has been tracking the LRC for a number of years now. . . This is my first year of studying and attempting to verify the LRC. So for all of those interested, this will be something to track in the coming days!

Related storm thread for this system in the MW/GL/OV . . .

Jan. 29-Feb. 2nd Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm


If this system next week does indeed verify to be our third signature storm, then i will have to go back and look over the few going forecast correlations that I have already outlined in the last few posts, and possibly adjust them. I will leave them as is for now.

[Gilbertfly]

Related storm thread for this system in the MW/GL/OV . . .

Jan. 29-Feb. 2nd Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm
If this system next week does indeed verify to be our third signature storm, then i will have to go back and look over the few going forecast correlations that I have already outlined in the last few posts, and possibly adjust them. I will leave them as is for now.

While watching to see if this evolves into our third signature storm . . . I will repost the 500 millibar maps for the October 26th and the December 11th - 12th storms . . . As I mentioned to do last week, watch these loops and compare them to 500 millibar forcast maps for the time frame of January 30 to February 2nd

October 26th system . . .

 _gickr.com__85f2a209_f42b_3f64_fd02_8073107c4ea9.gif ( 1.06MB ) Number of downloads: 0



December 12th system . . . .

 movie_of_500_millibar_december_10_to_december_15.gif ( 1.1MB ) Number of downloads: 0

[Gilbertfly]

While watching to see if this evolves into our third signature storm . . . I will repost the 500 millibar maps for the October 26th and the December 11th - 12th storms . . . As I mentioned to do last week, watch these loops and compare them to 500 millibar forcast maps for the time frame of January 30 to February 2nd

October 26th system . . .

 _gickr.com__85f2a209_f42b_3f64_fd02_8073107c4ea9.gif ( 1.06MB ) Number of downloads: 0

December 12th system . . . .

 movie_of_500_millibar_december_10_to_december_15.gif ( 1.1MB ) Number of downloads: 0

Models are coming into better agreement to possibly make this our next major system our third signature system.

Current trends suggest the date may be February 1st - 3rd for hitting the signature benchmark. Originaly in this thread I was thinking this would be closer to January 27th - 29th timeframe. While that is not that far off, a valuable lesson has been learned. . .

The LRC is not meant to be used as a minute by minute forecast tool. It should be more used as a tool to define where we are at within a pattern. Example: Periods of dry and cool, or milder and wetter; will systems want to go up along the coast or up into the MW or just "bowling ball" accross the CONUS?

With that being said, as the cycle resets next week, feel free to use any forecasts that I placed in earlier threads, but don't get locked on too much to the exact date. The systems just define where we are at within' the cycle. And is the case this time through, it can be stretched out by a few days.

Example: The EC X-Mas Storm that i thought would come up again February 9th . . . Ditch the date and just watch for a similiar pattern set-up 2 weeks or so after our third signature storm.

For the near term I will be focusing on the upcoming signature storm, but feel free to comment or ask questions!

[Gilbertfly]

A quick 500 millibar update . . .

October 26th . . .
 dwm500_test_20101026.gif ( 47.91K ) Number of downloads: 1



December 12th . . .
 dwm500_test_20101212.gif ( 51.28K ) Number of downloads: 1



(1/29/2011) 12Z GFS for Hour 96 . . .
 gfs_500_096l.gif ( 124.8K ) Number of downloads: 1

[snofan]

A quick 500 millibar update . . .

October 26th . . .
 dwm500_test_20101026.gif ( 47.91K ) Number of downloads: 1

December 12th . . .
 dwm500_test_20101212.gif ( 51.28K ) Number of downloads: 1

(1/29/2011) 12Z GFS for Hour 96 . . .
 gfs_500_096l.gif ( 124.8K ) Number of downloads: 1

WOW! So Close.

[Gilbertfly]

WOW! So Close.

Yes, very very close. We will have to see what the actual 500 millibar maps end up looking like after this system passes. For now, it looks like this will be the one to reset the cycle.

[Undertakerson]

Last I looked at LRC, I made a handwritten note that it suggested a blockbuster storm somewhere in the 2/911-2/12/11 time pd.

Here's the GFS (12z 2/3):

[attachment=121129:gfs.gif]


Euro (same run but 168Hr):

[attachment=121130:euro.gif]

CMC(Hr 174 - 12z 2/3):

[attachment=121131:ggem.gif]

UKIE? I only have access to 2/9/11 maps but notice the LP in the SW CONUS (last frame) - the stuff alot of noreasters are originally spawned from.

[attachment=121132:PNM_panel.gif]

Should this one time frame alone produce a blockbuster storm, I will become an ardent follower of LRC.

[Gilbertfly]

Last I looked at LRC, I made a handwritten note that it suggested a blockbuster storm somewhere in the 2/911-2/12/11 time pd.


Should this one time frame alone produce a blockbuster storm, I will become an ardent follower of LRC.

Great maps!!! I did reference this system a week or two ago (and also within' the first few posts of the thread). . .however, since the cycle was pushed back a few days, i will have to now re-examine what time frames we are working with. . .your forcast maps above, will be a great starting point! (I also had a date of around the 9th of February)

Later on this evening I will first take a look at our signature system one more time, for verification purposes, then we will move on forward from there!

This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Feb 3 2011, 03:40 PM

[Gilbertfly]

Moving over to the Mid Atlantic and East Coast . . . let's take a look at the X-Mas storm

Remember the cycle was set with signature storms in the MW on October 26th and December 12th. . .

Let's look at the +13 to +15 date range . . .

First use this thread to look at some of the more finite details of what occurred on and around November 8th http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=23528

and take a look at the 500 millibar for November 8th

 dwm500_test_20101108.gif ( 48.79K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20101108.html (click this link for more maps)

----------------------

If you need any reminders on the December 26th storm, look at this thread http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=24320

and take a look at the 500 millibar for December 27th

 dwm500_test_20101227.gif ( 53.02K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20101227.html (click this link for more maps)
So if you use a data set for +13 to +15 days following a signature storm. . .this would lead us to believe that there is a possibility for a similiar set up on or around February 9th. As this timeframe comes into range on the models, we should watch the model trends that occurred leading up to these two previous storms for the Mid Atlantic and East Coast and compare.

Now, using this post from January 15th, i would like to bring attention to the +13 to +15 date range I gave. I came up with the date of February 9th under the assumption that our third signature storm was due around January 27th - 29th. Clearly it did not come until February 2nd - 3rd.

Now that we have the start day of our third cycle I can start to look at that +13 to +15 date set again. If this East Coast system were to verify, then it would be due to hit the East Coast somewhere between February 14th - 17th.

This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Feb 3 2011, 09:00 PM