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> The LRC Thread, How has it stacked up?
OSNW3
post Sep 2 2011, 09:01 AM
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QUOTE(Regionrat @ Sep 1 2011, 09:01 PM) *
I wonder (suspect is more accurate) if Joe Bastardi uses a resource like the LRC? Bastardi, as I understand it, believes that there are weather cycles that last for decades. He's not alone, but he's something of a public figure, and somewhat easy to reference. If a large cycle exists, it's reasonable to believe that there are identifiable cycles within the large cycles. Bastardi references analog years, for example citing 1954 and 1999 as analogs for this hurricane season. Again, it's hardly unique, but very intriguing. He called Katia (others did too) and he's steadfastly held to the idea that it is a very real threat to the east coast, in spite of what the models showed. Is he scanning the maps from a year ago, or maybe decades ago, and doing what you educated fellows are doing?

OSNW3 referenced July 28, 2010 in applying the LRC to Irene. Advance that a couple of weeks, and we're at August 10, 2010. Does a review of the charts from that period indicate conditions conducive for a hurricane to hit the east coast?
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20100810.html

Any opinions?


Regionrat, I may have left my words open ended when we were discussing Irene . What I meant was... I suspected that the flow aloft would steer Irene further east, not that Irene is apart of the LRC. I apologize for any confusion I may have caused.


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OSNW3
post Sep 2 2011, 09:48 AM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Sep 1 2011, 11:18 PM) *
I think the LRC is a fantastic tool though


I couldn't agree more.

The difference I see from this year and last year in terms of the LRC is that the jet is much further north as the patterns cycle. That, in my opinion, is due to the time of year we are in versus last year. Last year this particular pattern was cycling in late September, now here we are in early September, a good 5-10 degree difference in max surface temps, slightly higher dew points, and gobs of rain. As a matter of fact it's pouring in Oshkosh, WI as I type this.

If you're interested in some more fun, surface observations from the particular pattern last Sep-22 can be found by following the link below. Click on the linked daily descriptions for a radar loop.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/rc201009.html


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jdrenken
post Sep 16 2011, 06:42 AM
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QUOTE
Meteorologist Jeremy Nelson WISN Milwaukee presents the LRC to the National Weather Service



Upon invitation from the Milwaukee National Weather Service Forecast Office, Meteorologist Jeremy Nelson at WISN TV in Milwaukee presented an hour long summary of the LRC. Several other offices within the Central Region and around the nation attended via internet webinar.



Within the presentation, Jeremy explained the tenants of the LRC and provides several case studies from this last year. In addition, specific forecast examples were provided with the associated verification. The meeting concluded with a Q&A session from the attendees with several remarks from NWS staff endorsing the LRC in assisting with analyzing validity of other traditional mid and long range models as well as using the LRC in tracking larger storms within this last year's cycle.



The meeting was very successful in sharing the LRC with other meteorologists whom may benefit from its use as well as answering questions from others learning about the LRC for the first time.



Congratulations to Jeremy Nelson, Mark Baden and the supporting staff at WISN for a fantastic presentation and reaching out to partner with the NWS. Special thanks to Jeff Cravens - Science and Operations Office and others at the NWS for the invitation and warm welcome.


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OSNW3
post Sep 18 2011, 04:29 PM
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jdrenken, totally digging the fact that Jeremy and his crew did that. The LRC has certainly gained popularity in the past year. It will be fun to watch the use of it evolve in the private/public/personal weather forecasting sects. I have a feeling there will be an abundant mad dash for the first Winter forecast publication. It will be interesting to watch those who claim there is a cycle and of them who actually credit the LRC when making their forecasts.

I've been designing several LRC analysis tools the past few months and recently put the final touches on a 500mb height trend tool that will forecast said trends and compare them against the forecasts of the 7-14 day GFS. I am hopeful this tool will continue my learning and understanding of the LRC.

The LRC Versus The GFS; Let The Fun Begin
http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/

One of many things I've learned in my first year following the LRC, patience is a virtue!


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The Snowman
post Sep 18 2011, 05:18 PM
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I literally just found out what the LRC is.
Even though it is just a theory (and actually looks fairly sustainable from the first topic post), is this cycle something to keep tabs on through the denoted period (stated as Oct. 1-Nov. 10)?


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OSNW3
post Sep 18 2011, 10:18 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 18 2011, 05:18 PM) *
I literally just found out what the LRC is.
Even though it is just a theory (and actually looks fairly sustainable from the first topic post), is this cycle something to keep tabs on through the denoted period (stated as Oct. 1-Nov. 10)?


Snowman, yes Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory is something to keep tabs on. However, it is stressed that one must follow along for a year to truly understand the theory. See you around hopefully!




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