The LRC Thread, How has it stacked up? Options

[Gilbertfly]

I would like to point out a few upcoming systems and possible correlations that we can watch for verification . . .

Here is the current thread open . . .
Feb 10-11 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm

This could possibly line up with this system that affected parts of the EC December 19th - 21st. . .

Here are some pics to remind you followed up by the forecast thread for this system . . .

500 millibar for December 20th . . .
 dwm500_test_20101220.gif ( 48.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


500 millibar for December 21st . . .
 dwm500_test_20101221.gif ( 47.47K ) Number of downloads: 0


And some surface maps to jog your memory for. . .

December 19th . . .
 stnplot_20101219.gif ( 68.6K ) Number of downloads: 1


December 20th . . .
 stnplot_20101220.gif ( 68.51K ) Number of downloads: 0


December 21st . . .
 stnplot_20101221.gif ( 66.88K ) Number of downloads: 1


Here was the forecast thread for this system in December . . .
Dec. 19-20 MidAtl/NE Nor'easter, Forecast Thread

Here was the OBS Thread for this system . . .
Dec 18-20 MidAtl/NE Nor'easter OBS

EDIT: On my previous post. . .I describe what time frame to look at to match up with EC "X-Mas" system (December 26th, 2010)

This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Feb 3 2011, 06:51 PM

[Gilbertfly]

We had a moderation in temperatures soon after the East Coast's X-Mas storm. . .

Currently i have that storm to come through in the February 14th - 17th timeframe. If that verifies, then we can expect a moderation in temperatures to follow a few days after that. As of this post, some models have been hinting at a warm-up in this timeframe.

Here are the min - max temperatures for December 29th - January 3rd . . .

December 29th
 colormaxmin_20101229.gif ( 15.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


December 30th
 colormaxmin_20101230.gif ( 16.11K ) Number of downloads: 0


December 31st
 colormaxmin_20101231.gif ( 17.59K ) Number of downloads: 0


January 1st
 colormaxmin_20110101.gif ( 18K ) Number of downloads: 0


January 2nd
 colormaxmin_20110102.gif ( 17.94K ) Number of downloads: 0


January 3rd
 colormaxmin_20110103.gif ( 16.88K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Feb 3 2011, 08:59 PM

[Gilbertfly]

I would also like to take a quick second to look at all three of our signature storms. . .

Satellite for our October system . . .
 oct_26th.jpg ( 60.58K ) Number of downloads: 0



Satellite for our December system . . .
 dec_12th.jpg ( 53.28K ) Number of downloads: 0



Satellite for our February system . . .
 Feb_2nd.jpg ( 60.88K ) Number of downloads: 0



These images were borrowed from Gary's post at this site here. . .
LRCWeather.com
Check it out!

[Gilbertfly]

While we're looking at temps. . .also notice how colder temps took over the CONUS leading up to the "X-Mas" Storm (December 26th) . . . Again, I would say that we should watch for a simliar setup leading into the Febraury 14th - 17th timeframe, which is when i have the next big EC storm to occur.

So here were the temperatures in the days leading up to "X-Mas" storm. . .

December 21st . . .
 colormaxmin_20101221.gif ( 15.91K ) Number of downloads: 0


December 22nd . . .
 colormaxmin_20101222.gif ( 16.07K ) Number of downloads: 0


December 23rd . . .
 colormaxmin_20101223.gif ( 15.63K ) Number of downloads: 0


December 24th . . .
 colormaxmin_20101224.gif ( 15.32K ) Number of downloads: 1


December 25th . . .
 colormaxmin_20101225.gif ( 15.72K ) Number of downloads: 0


December 26th . . .
 colormaxmin_20101226.gif ( 16.04K ) Number of downloads: 0


And clearly this takes us right into the big system on the EC. . .

As it stands right now, i would suspect that the system progged to affect the MW and EC in the 9th -11th timeframe will bring in this chunck of colder air. I am thinking Feb 9th - 11th system will have affects in both regions, although I don't see it as a strictly EC system. I currently think that this is setting the stage for a system that will have a much greater impact on the EC in the 14th - 17th timeframe. This would line up better with the November 8th system and December 26th system.

So we will keep an eye on what the models are saying for temperature trends before and after 14th - 17th time frame and verify them by looking at this and the last post.

So, to sum up. . .I expect temps to be colder than normal leading up to the 14th - 17th EC system and then a thaw to follow a few days after this system

[Gilbertfly]

A quick update on things to notice and watch out for. . .

1. Thermal pattern is setting up right on cue. Models are still adveritisng colder than normal temps followed by a period of above normal temps. Surface OBS on these trends might be skewed after all is said and done do to the hefty snowpack in many locals throughout the regions.

2. What seperated these thermal trends in December was the system that affected the East on December 26th - 27th. Nothing crazy is showing up on models at the moment, but a couple of runs now are starting to show a clipper-type system working it's way off the coast. This was also advertised about 10 days out with the December 26th system. It will for sure be something to keep an eye on, as this is fitting into the date range of Feb. 14th - 17th that i gave earlier.

3. Latest model runs also continue to show what was expected for the Feb. 8th - 10th system. It seems to be falling inline quite well with the December 20th system.

4. Recall how the warm air after the December 26th system set the stage for some active weather around New Year's. For now, a rough estimate would be around Feb 20nd - 23th.

A couple quick maps as a reminder. . .

December 31st . . .

500's . . .
 dwm500_wbgsm_20101231.gif ( 11.73K ) Number of downloads: 0


surface . . .
 sfcplot_sm_20101231.gif ( 35.78K ) Number of downloads: 0


temps . . .
 colormaxmin_20101231.gif ( 17.59K ) Number of downloads: 1


precip . . .
 dwm_p24i_20101231.gif ( 11.45K ) Number of downloads: 0

[Gilbertfly]

A quick 500 millibar update for what i feel is a more high potential impact system for the EC in the Feb 14th - 17th time frame. . .

Today's forcasted 500 millibar for February 16th (6zGFS hour 216). . .
 gfs_500_216l_12_16.gif ( 95.2K ) Number of downloads: 1


December 27th . . . 500 millibar
 dwm500_test_20101227.gif ( 53.02K ) Number of downloads: 0


November 8th . . . 500 millibar
 dwm500_test_20101108.gif ( 48.79K ) Number of downloads: 0

[Gilbertfly]

As a reminder with a potential around February 14th to 17th along the EC. . .

It would line up with December 26th AND November 8th. . .(Both +13 to +15 days from their signature storm)

take a look at what occured on November 8th. . .

November 8th 2010

set the date to November 6th

set the Max Frames to 240

set the Extra Days to 4

loop the SatSfcComposite. . .

keep in mind that this option may be on the table depending on how the left over energy from the current system in the gulf develops. . .

[Gilbertfly]

Recall how the warm air after the December 26th system set the stage for some active weather around New Year's. For now, a rough estimate would be around Feb 20th - 23rd.

For this post. . .looking at the Feb 20th - 23rd system. . .i will also make comparisons to the November 13th and December 31st. . .

November 13th surface. . .
 sfcplot_sm_20101113.gif ( 32.99K ) Number of downloads: 0


December 31st surface. . .
 sfcplot_sm_20101231.gif ( 35.78K ) Number of downloads: 0


-----------------------------------------

November 13th temps. . .
 colormaxmin_20101113.gif ( 16.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


December 31st temps. . .
 colormaxmin_20101231.gif ( 17.59K ) Number of downloads: 0


-----------------------------------------

November 13th precip. . .
 dwm_p24i_20101113.gif ( 10.28K ) Number of downloads: 0


December 31st precip. . .
 dwm_p24i_20101231.gif ( 11.45K ) Number of downloads: 0


-----------------------------------------

November 13th 500 millibar. . .
 dwm500_wbgsm_20101113.gif ( 10.7K ) Number of downloads: 0


December 31st 500 millibar. . .
 dwm500_wbgsm_20101231.gif ( 11.73K ) Number of downloads: 0



GFS Forecast map for February 21st. . .
 gfs_ten_252l.gif ( 109.97K ) Number of downloads: 1



This seems to be another major charteristic of this season's cycle. . .

Signature storm. . . Day 1 (October 26, December 12, February 2nd)
Ridging and system bring in colder air. . .+7
Ridging and system bring in warmer air. . .+13
System pushes out the warmer air and brings things back to seasonal. . .+18

I will leave the details to the maps, but this seems to be the general cycle thus far.

SOURCE for the above maps if you want to do any digging around yourself. . .

This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Feb 10 2011, 09:34 PM

[Gilbertfly]

For this post. . .looking at the Feb 20th - 23rd system. . .i will also make comparisons to the November 13th and December 31st. . .

It will take some time to see what, if any, type of severe threat we end up having with same time frame. . .

but here are a few more comparison maps as a reminder of what occurred the last two times after the few day warm up came to an end across the CONUS. . .

November 16th . . .
 101116_rpts.gif ( 16.14K ) Number of downloads: 0


December 31st . . .
 101231_rpts.gif ( 16.39K ) Number of downloads: 0


Just like with all of the other systems and time periods throughout the cycle. . .it is important to remember that things may not pan out precisely as they did the last few times through the cycle on the surface.

Two examples. . .

1.) Take a look at the affects of the three different signature storms and where the worst of each's affects translated on the surface.

2.) Take a look at the above pictures. . .notice how there is a large difference in where the severe weather set-up. . .

For reason's like these, it is still up to the forecasters to determine the details of what will occurr at the surface during each portion of the cycle. . .

The important thing to take out of this post is that, according to the LRC, there could be some fireworks in the +18 to +20 day timeframe (from our signature storm). Where, precisely, the fireworks go off, that's for us to figure out. . .

This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Feb 11 2011, 01:40 PM

[Gilbertfly]

This post will touch briefly on the 4th signature storm. . .According to the LRC, it would be showing up around the March 21st to March 24th timeframe. . .

As we learned with our previous signature system, the dates might need to be adjusted a few days plus or minus, but for now, this looks to be the dates to keep an eye on. . .

500 millibar map for all three signature systems. . .

February system. . .
 dwm500_test_20110201.gif ( 52.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


December system. . .
 dwm500_test_20101211.gif ( 48.73K ) Number of downloads: 0


October system. . .
 dwm500_test_20101026.gif ( 47.91K ) Number of downloads: 0


source

[Gilbertfly]

A quick 500 millibar update for what i feel is a more high potential impact system for the EC in the Feb 14th - 17th time frame. . .

It appears the impacts will be less then I thought they would be. . .this is another prime example why the LRC can't be used to 100% predict surface conditions. Reguardless the LRC looks to be verified once again with this system. . .

November 8th 500 millibar. . .
 dwm500_test_20101108.gif ( 48.79K ) Number of downloads: 0


December 27th 500 millibar. . .
 dwm500_test_20101227.gif ( 53.02K ) Number of downloads: 0


Forecast for February 15th 500 millibar. . .
 gfs_500_036l.gif ( 125.39K ) Number of downloads: 0

[redfish]

Quick question... what's a "signature storm"?

[Gilbertfly]

Quick question... what's a "signature storm"?

It is one of the more obvious trademark systems of each cycle. . .This year, the first one came on October 26th, the second on December 11th/12th, and the third just came on February 2nd/3rd. . .

After you see the second "signature" system, that is when you get a rough idea for the length of each cycle (in days). . .from there you can start to notice similarities within' each cycle. . .

The term "signature system" was borrowed from Jeremy Nelson at WISN12. . .

This is from a previous post just to recap. . .

Here are the basics of the theory:

•A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October 1st and November 10th
•The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer. Identifying the cycle length helps tremendously when making long range weather predictions.
•Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle. These dominant repeating features are a clue to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.
•The LRC is a winter-long pattern! There is a pattern! It isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere

Source

[redfish]

Oh. I see. Thanks for the explanation.


What happens if you have two independent patterns set up? Has this ever happened?

[Gilbertfly]

Oh. I see. Thanks for the explanation.
What happens if you have two independent patterns set up? Has this ever happened?

That's a great question! . . . and a bit confusing to answer. . .

Within' the LRC there could only be one pattern - by definetion, that is what actually creates the cycle. . .This is where the signature system comes in handy. Some features may occur more than others within' each cycle, making it difficult to recognize where we are at within' the cycle.

One thing that has been studied more recently is how other patterns, such as teleconnections, influence the placement of various jet's, ridges, pressures within' the LRC. . .this could help to possibly narrow down location and timing of certain events within' the cycle a little better.

[NYCSuburbs]

I've noticed a storm consistently showing up on the GFS for the 28th, with the last 3 runs taking it into the Great Lakes and the 00z run near the Mid Atlantic. Not that the exact track should matter this far out, but I was wondering if the LRC shows anything for this time frame. Even though not every storm has turned out to be the same (like the 14-17th storm which wasn't anything big), the LRC method does seem to be doing a great job at picking up potential storm time frames.

[redfish]

That's a great question! . . . and a bit confusing to answer. . .

Within' the LRC there could only be one pattern - by definetion, that is what actually creates the cycle. . .This is where the signature system comes in handy. Some features may occur more than others within' each cycle, making it difficult to recognize where we are at within' the cycle.

One thing that has been studied more recently is how other patterns, such as teleconnections, influence the placement of various jet's, ridges, pressures within' the LRC. . .this could help to possibly narrow down location and timing of certain events within' the cycle a little better.

Huh. I wonder... Were this to happen, how would the LRC be able to isolate, "pick" if you will, a single storm cycle out of many?

And because these signature storms seem to have been relatively warm, would the one in March likely be a rain/ice event as well?

[Gilbertfly]

I've noticed a storm consistently showing up on the GFS for the 28th, with the last 3 runs taking it into the Great Lakes and the 00z run near the Mid Atlantic. Not that the exact track should matter this far out, but I was wondering if the LRC shows anything for this time frame. Even though not every storm has turned out to be the same (like the 14-17th storm which wasn't anything big), the LRC method does seem to be doing a great job at picking up potential storm time frames.

It does do a good job. . .precise timing and location have been the flaws. This may lead people to say, "What's the point of the LRC then?". . .

My answer is . . . something is better than nothing. . .it's another tool. . .and who knows if future correlations can be found with teleconnections and such to better hammer down timing and location? At this point, it helps you to be able to say, "Keep you eye out during this period," even as far away as 45 days. . .

Like you said, a prime example would be the 14th - 17th system. . .There ended up being a strong low pressure system that dumped some decent amounts of snow with some fairly windy conditions coming in on it's heels. . .but it ended up being further North than the systems in the previous two cycles.

I will take a look at the 28th system this evening. . .

A few quick notes about this time frame within' the cycle. . .

- the temp battles over the eastern 2/3's of the CONUS

- systems crashing into the west coast hammering them with precip

- zonal flow provides for west/east bowling ball type events

- florida/cuban high getting squashed

To sum up. . .as we get closer to the timeframe you are talking about, there stands a better chance for systems to make out to the EC far enough south to get into some snow. . .from there the NOWCasting details will help determine where it goes from there. . .

I will post up some correlating systems later on this evening for you. And thanks to you and RedFish for stopping by!

[Gilbertfly]

Huh. I wonder... Were this to happen, how would the LRC be able to isolate, "pick" if you will, a single storm cycle out of many?

And because these signature storms seem to have been relatively warm, would the one in March likely be a rain/ice event as well?

For your first question. . .

Even if there are other patterns out there, once that second signature storm occurs, the cycle is set. . .and any other patterns should not have major implications. . .the main point being that the LRC cycle itself already assumes that these other patterns exist. . .The LRC simply puts a timeline on what already exists for future forecasts



For the second question. . .

It all depends on our current surface conditions to determine what will occur each time through. . .

for example. . .

I live in Chicago. . .The first signature storm brought us rain and wind. . .The second brought us more rain and wind, however snow fell as close as Milaukee. . .The third signature storm brought us blizzard conditions with snow throughout the whole event.

Will the fourth one swing north of us here in chicago? Or will it go even further south? That will be something that needs to be watched as we get closer to that timeframe. . .

BTW. . .thanks for stopping by!!! Any questions and thoughts are great!

[redfish]

Thanks for all the answers. Being an inquisitive person, I appreciate those who are willing to give answers.

I wonder why all computer models don't do this? This pattern-finding thing? After all, all weather forecasting really is is finding patterns. If we could make a program that tracked each minute pattern, and how every pattern ties into every other pattern, we'd be able to perfectly predict exactly what would happen for as long as we really want from now. At least, we'd be able to provided the programmers don't make any mistakes and the computers don't glitch or exceed their capacities.