Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Scientists warn California could be struck by winter ‘superstorm’, Could this really happen?
Niyologist
post Jan 17 2011, 01:40 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,693
Joined: 7-January 08
From: Mount Vernon, NY
Member No.: 12,006





Whaaa..... blink.gif


A group of more than 100 scientists and experts say in a new report that California faces the risk of a massive "superstorm" that could flood a quarter of the state's homes and cause $300 billion to $400 billion in damage. Researchers point out that the potential scale of destruction in this storm scenario is four or five times the amount of damage that could be wrought by a major earthquake.

It sounds like the plot of an apocalyptic action movie, but scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey warned federal and state emergency officials that California's geological history shows such "superstorms" have happened in the past, and should be added to the long list of natural disasters to worry about in the Golden State.

The threat of a cataclysmic California storm has been dormant for the past 150 years. Geological Survey director Marcia K. McNutt told the New York Times that a 300-mile stretch of the Central Valley was inundated from 1861-62. The floods were so bad that the state capital had to be moved to San Francisco, and Governor Leland Stanford had to take a rowboat to his own inauguration, the report notes. Even larger storms happened in past centuries, over the dates 212, 440, 603, 1029, 1418, and 1605, according to geological evidence.



The risk is gathering momentum now, scientists say, due to rising temperatures in the atmosphere, which has generally made weather patterns more volatile.

The scientists built a model that showed a storm could last for more than 40 days and dump 10 feet of water on the state. The storm would be goaded on by an "atmospheric river" that would move water "at the same rate as 50 Mississippis discharging water into the Gulf of Mexico," according to the AP. Winds could reach 125 miles per hour, and landslides could compound the damage, the report notes.

Such a superstorm is hypothetical but not improbable, climate researchers warn. "We think this event happens once every 100 or 200 years or so, which puts it in the same category as our big San Andreas earthquakes," Geological Survey scientist Lucy Jones said in a press release.

Federal and state emergency management officials convened a conference about emergency preparations for possible superstorms last week. You can read the whole report here.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/2...nter-superstorm

This post has been edited by Niyologist: Jan 17 2011, 01:41 PM


--------------------
CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: VSonic GR06 (MSRP $59.99), MEElec M-DUO (MSRP $79.99), Beyerdynamic DTX-910 (MSRP $79.99), Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)

SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E11 Headphone Amplifier w/C3 32GB MicroSD Card Class 6

To learn more about Sound Frequency:
http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm

If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors)
http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20


Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
UFASUPERSTORM
post Jan 27 2011, 06:56 PM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,643
Joined: 28-January 10
Member No.: 21,166





QUOTE(Niyologist @ Jan 17 2011, 01:40 PM) *
Whaaa..... blink.gif
A group of more than 100 scientists and experts say in a new report that California faces the risk of a massive "superstorm" that could flood a quarter of the state's homes and cause $300 billion to $400 billion in damage. Researchers point out that the potential scale of destruction in this storm scenario is four or five times the amount of damage that could be wrought by a major earthquake.

It sounds like the plot of an apocalyptic action movie, but scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey warned federal and state emergency officials that California's geological history shows such "superstorms" have happened in the past, and should be added to the long list of natural disasters to worry about in the Golden State.

The threat of a cataclysmic California storm has been dormant for the past 150 years. Geological Survey director Marcia K. McNutt told the New York Times that a 300-mile stretch of the Central Valley was inundated from 1861-62. The floods were so bad that the state capital had to be moved to San Francisco, and Governor Leland Stanford had to take a rowboat to his own inauguration, the report notes. Even larger storms happened in past centuries, over the dates 212, 440, 603, 1029, 1418, and 1605, according to geological evidence.



The risk is gathering momentum now, scientists say, due to rising temperatures in the atmosphere, which has generally made weather patterns more volatile.

The scientists built a model that showed a storm could last for more than 40 days and dump 10 feet of water on the state. The storm would be goaded on by an "atmospheric river" that would move water "at the same rate as 50 Mississippis discharging water into the Gulf of Mexico," according to the AP. Winds could reach 125 miles per hour, and landslides could compound the damage, the report notes.

Such a superstorm is hypothetical but not improbable, climate researchers warn. "We think this event happens once every 100 or 200 years or so, which puts it in the same category as our big San Andreas earthquakes," Geological Survey scientist Lucy Jones said in a press release.

Federal and state emergency management officials convened a conference about emergency preparations for possible superstorms last week. You can read the whole report here.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/2...nter-superstorm

laugh.gif The troposphere is approaching a negative global temperature anomaly. The troposphere has cooled .5 Celsius in the last few months.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
The real danger here is severe drought.

This post has been edited by UFASUPERSTORM: Jan 27 2011, 06:57 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
idecline
post Feb 1 2011, 08:29 AM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,224
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866





QUOTE(UFASUPERSTORM @ Jan 27 2011, 06:56 PM) *
laugh.gif The troposphere is approaching a negative global temperature anomaly. The troposphere has cooled .5 Celsius in the last few months.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
The real danger here is severe drought.


In short term (weather) maybe there will be a drought.

In the long term (climate), the scientists who support this idea agree that the climate is becoming more volatile.

That seems to mean that 'extreme' weather is becoming more common....whether it be droughts, storms, hurricanes, glacial melting, and other 'anomalous' weather conditions.

It seems that there is great confusion between weather and climate.....but a long term trend of rising global temperatures will not be changed by a day, month, or even a year of lower global temperature anomalies.

The temperature of the earth can still be rising even if the rate of change in the rise lessens.

It would take continued negative anomalies over several years just to signal a change in the rising temperature rate.

So in regards to the 'thread' it is very prudent to prepare for damaging storms in California. The state has a history of violent, flooding rainstorms. The ENSO pattern only helps to exacerbate the problem when the atmospheric 'wave signals' align to cause long-term flooding storms.

I have personally seen the effects of many El Nino's in California, and sometimes storms can have extended periods of 1" or more of rain per hour. This is part orographic orientation of the mountain ranges in California, and the extreme moisture feeds the the jet stream can provide storms, especially in the strong El Nino years.




--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Beck
post Feb 5 2011, 01:16 AM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 29,266
Joined: 2-December 09
From: Temecula, California
Member No.: 19,931





QUOTE(idecline @ Feb 1 2011, 05:29 AM) *
In short term (weather) maybe there will be a drought.

In the long term (climate), the scientists who support this idea agree that the climate is becoming more volatile.

That seems to mean that 'extreme' weather is becoming more common....whether it be droughts, storms, hurricanes, glacial melting, and other 'anomalous' weather conditions.

It seems that there is great confusion between weather and climate.....but a long term trend of rising global temperatures will not be changed by a day, month, or even a year of lower global temperature anomalies.

The temperature of the earth can still be rising even if the rate of change in the rise lessens.

It would take continued negative anomalies over several years just to signal a change in the rising temperature rate.

So in regards to the 'thread' it is very prudent to prepare for damaging storms in California. The state has a history of violent, flooding rainstorms. The ENSO pattern only helps to exacerbate the problem when the atmospheric 'wave signals' align to cause long-term flooding storms.

I have personally seen the effects of many El Nino's in California, and sometimes storms can have extended periods of 1" or more of rain per hour. This is part orographic orientation of the mountain ranges in California, and the extreme moisture feeds the the jet stream can provide storms, especially in the strong El Nino years.


And then there are El Nino winters like 2006-2007. Gave most of Southern California their worst (driest) rainy season in history. Complete opposite of what typically is expected of El Nino. And 2001-2002 was just.....weird. Neutral ENSO, yet record drought for us (until 2006-2007). And don't even get me started on 2004-2005.....I think we both know how that winter went for SoCal laugh.gif

So yes, definitely more extreme particularly during the past 10-15 years across the nation.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.00" (-0.00")
Normal to-date precipitation: 0.00"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.00"

Temecula Weather Pages
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 1st August 2014 - 11:30 PM