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> Joe Basardi mid-winter update
post Jan 21 2011, 10:03 AM
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AWESOME NEWS!!! laugh.gif

For people who are sick of the cold and snow and hoping for a quick end to winter, AccuWeather.com Chief Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi may have bad news.
More persistent cold is expected to hold strong through at least the middle of February across much of the eastern two-thirds of the country. Bastardi also expects wintry events to last into April in some areas, which would be longer than last year.
Based on what is predicted for the rest of the season, Bastardi also says that this winter could end up being the coldest for the nation as a whole since the 1980s.
Persistent Cold, Storminess to Continue from Plains to East
While cold weather is of course a part of winter, the persistent nature of colder-than-normal conditions and a lack of brief warm spells people can typically look forward to during midwinter have been unusual this season. Temperatures since Dec. 1, 2010 have averaged below normal from Boston and New York City to Chicago, Minneapolis, New Orleans, Atlanta and even Miami.
Temperatures are expected to continue averaging below normal in many of these places, from the northern and central Plains into the East, through at least the middle of February.
The biggest snowstorms in February will target areas mainly north of a line running from the Mason-Dixon Line to the Ohio River and I-40 across the Plains, according to Bastardi.

Just to the south of this line (from Amarillo, Texas to about Atlantic City, N.J.) is where Bastardi expects storms to vary between producing snow, ice and rain for the bulk of the rest of the winter.
It will not be until late February into March that opportunities arise for the colder-than-normal weather pattern to break. However, Bastardi warns that there could be a return of cold and storms across the northern part of the nation, including the Great Lakes and Northeast, from mid- or late March into April.
He says this will be quite a change for the Great Lakes and Northeast as compared to last year, when the regions experienced their warmest back-to-back March and April on record.

He adds that late-season winter storms in the Plains and East are common during La Niņas, when sea surface temperatures across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are below normal. Bastardi says the current La Niņa could continue into next year.
Bastardi says La Niņas also tend to "conjure up a more intense severe weather season," which typically ramps up in April into May from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
Warmth for the Southwest, Texas
Above-normal warmth recently established in the interior Southwest is expected to generally persist through February and, in some areas, through March and April.
Bastardi says this warmth should also spread into Texas.
That is not to say that there will not be periods of chillier weather for the Southwest and Texas, however. In fact, temperatures are expected to average out near if not below normal much of next week.
West Coast
While cold air stays focused over the eastern two-thirds of the country through at least the middle of February, temperatures across much of the interior West are expected to be above normal.
This will be due to the position of the jet stream over the western coast of North America being well north over British Columbia during this time.
Changes may start taking place for the region late in February, with a transition to below-normal temperatures in the Northwest and northern Rockies following throughout much of March.
Precipitation has been above normal across much of the Northwest this season so far. Overall, Bastardi expects the region to remain above average in terms of precipitation throughout the rest of the winter with more snow and ice across the interior and mostly rain west of the Cascades.
For Southern California, which was hit with epic rain and flooding in December, drier-than-normal conditions have set in since the start of the year. Bastardi says that precipitation should average out below normal there for the remainder of the winter.

Storms out to April?? BRING IT!!

Winter 2014-2015
Late in the game...
First Flakes: October 31st
January 26th - 17 cm
January 27th - trace/2 cm
January 29th - 6.5 cm
February 1st/2nd 33 cm
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post Jan 21 2011, 10:28 AM
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"Stays cold" through mid-February for me, according to him (though I was reading that models were showing a significant warmup for southern Manitoba next week, at least). Right now it's -25 C at the airport, feels like -40 with the wind chill, and it's snowing a bit more than I expected it to this morning.

One question that's going to really be of concern to forecasters here, and in North Dakota and Minnesota, is whether there will be significant springtime flooding of the Red. We were only 1 or 2 mm from having the wettest year on record here in Winnipeg (records go back to 1873, and the record wettest is still 1962). There were huge puddles in fields still when the temperatures started to drop and winter began to kick in, so there was definitely a lot of moisture trapped in the soil after a rainy summer and fall when it began to freeze up.

I'm very interested in what the spring will bring to my area. It'll depend on whether we get any major storms in March or April, how fast the snowpack melts, etc. The devastating 1997 flood was practically guaranteed when an early-April blizzard dumped about 40 cm of snow, at pretty much the worst time possible, on top of already record high snow. While I don't expect anything quite so dramatic as that, it'll be something for forecasters here to keep an eye on!
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post Jan 21 2011, 10:40 AM
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I'm sorry, but I don't buy it.
His map says "more storms" for our area.
More storms?? Have we had one storm yet?? I'm convinced these guys have no clue what is actually happening in reality anywhere west of central PA.
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post Jan 21 2011, 11:06 AM
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QUOTE(thehammer @ Jan 21 2011, 10:40 AM) *
I'm sorry, but I don't buy it.
His map says "more storms" for our area.
More storms?? Have we had one storm yet?? I'm convinced these guys have no clue what is actually happening in reality anywhere west of central PA.

Well as long as the Cold weather pattern has a strangle hold on the Eastern GL theres a small chance of storms but theres signs of the "blocking" breaking down

This post has been edited by dmc76: Jan 21 2011, 11:10 AM

Total Snowfall: 69.7" Biggest Storm: 2/2 11.0" Snow Depth 5"
Snow history: season average L.O 58"from 1995 to 2010

96-97 42.5 97-98 27.5 98-99 71.1" 99-00 44.3" 00-01 58.5" 01-02 47.6"02-03 52.2" 03-04 62.5" 04-05 86.0" 05-06 41.6"06-07 34.5"07-08 99.8"08-09 87.1" 2009/10 49.5"
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JJ Snowlover
post Jan 21 2011, 11:25 AM
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Having storms at the end of March and April only adds to our *bleep* winter Eastern Ontario has been experiencing. So we miss every major system storm that comes by our area all winter but then at the end when the sun is warm and we're getting ready for spring we get storms??? blink.gif

Great just our luck...but ya I will believe it when I see it too. Joe's forecast are usually more relavent to USA. I doubt Canada has seen it coldest winter since the 1980's. Seems more averege to me in terms of temperatures.
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post Jan 26 2011, 06:22 PM
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Seems like all the storms are taking the same path for the past 4-5 weeks.. Going north east to NY area, then going at sea scorching the Maritimes and Boston area on some occasions. Almost nothing for Ontario and Quebec. Even the clippers are passing south now. blink.gif

We got a weekend of colder temps, but for the rest of the winter so far it was very easy going. Below freezing point, but very fun to play outside. Big plus this year, about no freezing rain. But not much snow either - way below average in the east.

I'm not expecting to see a spring as early as last year, but march is looking good based on the very long range models. Plus La Nina starts to weaken a bit. If it really does, we might be in for a big storm chase season in the plains in April/May. They had much snow down there, that's good - it will add to the humid air coming from the GOM.

This post has been edited by Regg: Jan 26 2011, 06:24 PM
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post Jan 27 2011, 02:57 AM
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Storms at the end of March and April are just going to be more wet then snow... Also we have had a good winter here in London Ontario over 300cm so far this year i'm ready for spring!


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post Jan 27 2011, 10:42 AM
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All that I get out of this is that it will be a very slow transition into spring. sad.gif
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