 Feb 1-3 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Please Post To New OBS Thread |
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  Jan 23 2011, 06:17 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 11,919 Joined: 27-August 08 From: NW OH Member No.: 15,447  |
Sure... why not. Several GEFS/ECMWF Ens. Members showing some sort of storm... along with the GGEM and ECMWF
Reason for Edit: Title Dates This post has been edited by futureweatherman12: Jan 26 2011, 04:02 PM -------------------- QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM)  i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh |
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Jan 23 2011, 06:26 PM
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#2
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 17,815 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
Come on.
I was analysing the pattern and models to see if this was a worthy threat for me to start a thread, and you go ahead and do it first. Now I'm all sad.... 
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Jan 23 2011, 07:09 PM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 17,815 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
Here's what the ECMWF is showing.
1008mb low pressure over southern SC. Looking at the Accu Pro images, there's lots of cold air and a up to that frame as much as .50 to .60 in of QPF over central and western VA and as much as .25 to .30 in of QPF over northern VA including DC. All snow over those areas as surface temperatures are in the mid to upper 10's and 850's ranging from -5C to -10C. -------------------- |
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Jan 23 2011, 07:52 PM
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 521 Joined: 23-July 09 From: mississauga ontario Member No.: 18,714 |
QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jan 23 2011, 07:09 PM) Here's what the ECMWF is showing.
1008mb low pressure over southern SC. Looking at the Accu Pro images, there's lots of cold air and a up to that frame as much as .50 to .60 in of QPF over central and western VA and as much as .25 to .30 in of QPF over northern VA including DC. All snow over those areas as surface temperatures are in the mid to upper 10's and 850's ranging from -5C to -10C. Don't get your hopes up about this giving you more snow. |
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Jan 23 2011, 08:05 PM
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 17,815 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
QUOTE(wx140 @ Jan 23 2011, 07:52 PM) Don't get your hopes up about this giving you more snow. Hi. Good evening. What did your post meant to imply? Also, I encourage you to share your thoughts with sound data so you can give support to your statement. It's always good to follow that road. -------------------- |
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Jan 24 2011, 02:46 AM
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#6
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 217 Joined: 12-January 08 From: Roanoke, VA Member No.: 12,348 |
DT has mentioned this storm a couple of times. Will be interesting to follow. Looks like the Greenland block is back and cold air is entrenched across the east.
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Jan 24 2011, 07:51 AM
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,919 Joined: 27-August 08 From: NW OH Member No.: 15,447 |
Both the ECMWF and the GGEM have some type of storm... pretty weak SLP. ECMWF does have some decent precip on it though.
-------------------- QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh |
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Jan 24 2011, 08:34 AM
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#8
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 219 Joined: 27-February 09 From: 21804 Member No.: 17,718 |
Would be nice to get one last hurrah in before the spring thaw begins for us. Timing would be cruddy though as students start 2nd semester around that time. Last year was nuts as I saw them for about a week, and then they had a week off with the back-to-back blizzards.
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Jan 24 2011, 11:45 AM
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#9
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 3,904 Joined: 19-December 08 From: Mercerville, NJ Member No.: 16,588 |
GFS for this timeframe:
 
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Jan 24 2011, 03:44 PM
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#10
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,281 Joined: 17-December 08 From: Freehold Boro Member No.: 16,547 |
Nice clipper on the 12z gfs today..I have lived off les and clippers this yr so why not continue that lol I get about .30"on the gfs with good ratios that would be 5-6" of snow..I might make my avg this yr due to clippers
-------------------- Central monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30" Freehold boro snowfall 2008 - 2009: 26.8" 2009 - 2010: 74.2" 2010 - 2011: 61.1" 2011 - 2012: 8.5" 2012 - 2013: 37.1" |
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Jan 24 2011, 04:37 PM
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#11
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,400 Joined: 11-January 08 From: Philadelphia Member No.: 12,252 |
This is what happens when we get an OV guy starting a NE/MA storm thread. They pass on the bad luck.
 I don't see much right now other than cold weather, although the teleconnections look favorable if a storm is to pop up on later runs.
-------------------- The only way of finding the limits of the possible is by going beyond them into the impossible. ~Arthur C Clarke
It is better to have people think you a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt. ~Mark Twain A word to the wise ain't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need the advice. ~Bill Cosby Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose. ~Bill Gates |
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Jan 24 2011, 04:57 PM
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#12
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,342 Joined: 2-February 10 From: Goldsboro, PA Member No.: 21,302 |
QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Jan 24 2011, 04:37 PM) This is what happens when we get an OV guy starting a NE/MA storm thread. They pass on the bad luck. I don't see much right now other than cold weather, although the teleconnections look favorable if a storm is to pop up on later runs.My accuweather generated forecast is showing ice on 2/1 for my location so there's obviously something floating around on the models. |
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Jan 24 2011, 05:04 PM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,919 Joined: 27-August 08 From: NW OH Member No.: 15,447 |
QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Jan 24 2011, 04:37 PM) This is what happens when we get an OV guy starting a NE/MA storm thread. They pass on the bad luck. I don't see much right now other than cold weather, although the teleconnections look favorable if a storm is to pop up on later runs. ECMWF/GGEM continue to show some weak surface wave through the OV with some light/moderate precip through much of the region from the 31st to 3rd... if that continues I'll adjust the dates. Or you could take the suppression model known as the GFS.... -------------------- QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh |
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Jan 24 2011, 06:05 PM
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 17,815 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
18Z GFS shows a nice setup up to 192, before the truncation perio. Even into it, the possibility looks worth of hundrends of pages of discussion.
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Jan 24 2011, 06:17 PM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 587 Joined: 11-January 08 Member No.: 12,268 |
I have been watching the models and looking at this storm for the last few days. chances are
getting higher and higher at a storm trying to stall along east coast middle of next week. very big snows possibly for somebody but i cant put my finger on who yet. plenty of cold air running around and plenty of cold highs coming into the storm. nice trough also but where this trough sets up will be where the big snows will go. all and all this storm needs attension for next week. |
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| Removed_Member_Snowstorms_* |
Jan 24 2011, 06:49 PM
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#16
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Guests |
QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jan 24 2011, 06:05 PM) 18Z GFS shows a nice setup up to 192, before the truncation perio. Even into it, the possibility looks worth of hundrends of pages of discussion. Given the East Based Neutral-Negative NAO and +West Based NAO.....signs are pointing towards a inland track given the +PNA ridge out west. Now, most of the Cold air around this frame is mostly associated with the -EPO/+PNA pattern but the PV in my opinion will determine the exact track of this storm. Models hint some kind of Weak SE Ridge and a Strong PV across Canada. A very difficult storm. 500mb map.
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Jan 24 2011, 06:57 PM
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#17
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 354 Joined: 28-December 09 From: Austinville, VA Member No.: 20,597 |
Im in!
We will see what happens! 
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Jan 24 2011, 08:51 PM
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#18
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,125 Joined: 8-April 10 From: Baltimore, MD Member No.: 22,491 |
-------------------- You can lead a horse to water but a pencil must be lead. - Stan Laurel
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Jan 25 2011, 01:44 AM
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#19
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,944 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Denver, PA Member No.: 16,714 |
0Z GFS shows big storm on EC during this period followed by visit from Siberia
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Jan 25 2011, 02:29 AM
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#20
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 489 Joined: 4-February 10 From: Ridge, NY Member No.: 21,383 |
QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jan 23 2011, 06:26 PM) Come on. I was analysing the pattern and models to see if this was a worthy threat for me to start a thread, and you go ahead and do it first. Now I'm all sad.... Better luck when you start it
-------------------- "We make a living by what we get but we make a life by what we give" -Winston Churchill
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