Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

222 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Closed TopicStart new topic
> Feb 1-3 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Please Post To New OBS Thread
futureweatherman...
post Jan 23 2011, 06:17 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,919
Joined: 27-August 08
From: NW OH
Member No.: 15,447





Sure... why not. Several GEFS/ECMWF Ens. Members showing some sort of storm... along with the GGEM and ECMWF



Reason for Edit: Title Dates

This post has been edited by futureweatherman12: Jan 26 2011, 04:02 PM


--------------------


QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Jan 23 2011, 06:26 PM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 17,845
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





Come on.

I was analysing the pattern and models to see if this was a worthy threat for me to start a thread, and you go ahead and do it first.

Now I'm all sad....


laugh.gif


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.



Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Jan 23 2011, 07:09 PM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 17,845
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





Here's what the ECMWF is showing.



Attached Image


1008mb low pressure over southern SC.


Looking at the Accu Pro images, there's lots of cold air and a up to that frame as much as .50 to .60 in of QPF over central and western VA and as much as .25 to .30 in of QPF over northern VA including DC.

All snow over those areas as surface temperatures are in the mid to upper 10's and 850's ranging from -5C to -10C.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.



Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
wx140
post Jan 23 2011, 07:52 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 624
Joined: 23-July 09
From: mississauga ontario
Member No.: 18,714





QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jan 23 2011, 07:09 PM) *
Here's what the ECMWF is showing.

Attached Image


1008mb low pressure over southern SC.
Looking at the Accu Pro images, there's lots of cold air and a up to that frame as much as .50 to .60 in of QPF over central and western VA and as much as .25 to .30 in of QPF over northern VA including DC.

All snow over those areas as surface temperatures are in the mid to upper 10's and 850's ranging from -5C to -10C.

Don't get your hopes up about this giving you more snow.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Jan 23 2011, 08:05 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 17,845
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





QUOTE(wx140 @ Jan 23 2011, 07:52 PM) *
Don't get your hopes up about this giving you more snow.



Hi.

Good evening.


What did your post meant to imply?


Also, I encourage you to share your thoughts with sound data so you can give support to your statement. It's always good to follow that road.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.



Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
skinsfan540
post Jan 24 2011, 02:46 AM
Post #6




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 217
Joined: 12-January 08
From: Roanoke, VA
Member No.: 12,348





DT has mentioned this storm a couple of times. Will be interesting to follow. Looks like the Greenland block is back and cold air is entrenched across the east.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
futureweatherman...
post Jan 24 2011, 07:51 AM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,919
Joined: 27-August 08
From: NW OH
Member No.: 15,447





Both the ECMWF and the GGEM have some type of storm... pretty weak SLP. ECMWF does have some decent precip on it though.


--------------------


QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Twim19
post Jan 24 2011, 08:34 AM
Post #8




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 374
Joined: 27-February 09
From: 21804
Member No.: 17,718





Would be nice to get one last hurrah in before the spring thaw begins for us. Timing would be cruddy though as students start 2nd semester around that time. Last year was nuts as I saw them for about a week, and then they had a week off with the back-to-back blizzards.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Jan 24 2011, 11:45 AM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,843
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Mercerville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





GFS for this timeframe:



--------------------
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 24 2011, 03:44 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 15,315
Joined: 17-December 08
From: CNJ
Member No.: 16,547





Nice clipper on the 12z gfs today..I have lived off les and clippers this yr so why not continue that lol I get about .30"on the gfs with good ratios that would be 5-6" of snow..I might make my avg this yr due to clippers rolleyes.gif


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Weatherjunkie
post Jan 24 2011, 04:37 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,701
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Philadelphia
Member No.: 12,252





This is what happens when we get an OV guy starting a NE/MA storm thread. They pass on the bad luck. tongue.gif I don't see much right now other than cold weather, although the teleconnections look favorable if a storm is to pop up on later runs.


--------------------
The only way of finding the limits of the possible is by going beyond them into the impossible. ~Arthur C Clarke

It is better to have people think you a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt. ~Mark Twain

A word to the wise ain't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need the advice. ~Bill Cosby

Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose. ~Bill Gates
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ryan Duff
post Jan 24 2011, 04:57 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,355
Joined: 2-February 10
From: Goldsboro, PA
Member No.: 21,302





QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Jan 24 2011, 04:37 PM) *
This is what happens when we get an OV guy starting a NE/MA storm thread. They pass on the bad luck. tongue.gif I don't see much right now other than cold weather, although the teleconnections look favorable if a storm is to pop up on later runs.


My accuweather generated forecast is showing ice on 2/1 for my location so there's obviously something floating around on the models.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
futureweatherman...
post Jan 24 2011, 05:04 PM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,919
Joined: 27-August 08
From: NW OH
Member No.: 15,447





QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Jan 24 2011, 04:37 PM) *
This is what happens when we get an OV guy starting a NE/MA storm thread. They pass on the bad luck. tongue.gif I don't see much right now other than cold weather, although the teleconnections look favorable if a storm is to pop up on later runs.

laugh.gif

ECMWF/GGEM continue to show some weak surface wave through the OV with some light/moderate precip through much of the region from the 31st to 3rd... if that continues I'll adjust the dates. Or you could take the suppression model known as the GFS....


--------------------


QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Jan 24 2011, 06:05 PM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 17,845
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





18Z GFS shows a nice setup up to 192, before the truncation perio. Even into it, the possibility looks worth of hundrends of pages of discussion.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.



Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Patrick
post Jan 24 2011, 06:17 PM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 820
Joined: 11-January 08
Member No.: 12,268





I have been watching the models and looking at this storm for the last few days. chances are
getting higher and higher at a storm trying to stall along east coast middle of next week.

very big snows possibly for somebody but i cant put my finger on who yet. plenty of cold air
running around and plenty of cold highs coming into the storm.

nice trough also but where this trough sets up will be where the big snows will go. all and all
this storm needs attension for next week.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*
post Jan 24 2011, 06:49 PM
Post #16







Guests








QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jan 24 2011, 06:05 PM) *
18Z GFS shows a nice setup up to 192, before the truncation perio. Even into it, the possibility looks worth of hundrends of pages of discussion.


Given the East Based Neutral-Negative NAO and +West Based NAO.....signs are pointing towards a inland track given the +PNA ridge out west. Now, most of the Cold air around this frame is mostly associated with the -EPO/+PNA pattern but the PV in my opinion will determine the exact track of this storm. Models hint some kind of Weak SE Ridge and a Strong PV across Canada. A very difficult storm.



500mb map.

Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
mac24312
post Jan 24 2011, 06:57 PM
Post #17




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 354
Joined: 28-December 09
From: Austinville, VA
Member No.: 20,597





Im in!

We will see what happens! wink.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
beninbaltimore
post Jan 24 2011, 08:51 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,292
Joined: 8-April 10
From: Baltimore, MD
Member No.: 22,491





Wow @ the 850 temps after this time period GFS HR 300



--------------------
You can lead a horse to water but a pencil must be lead. - Stan Laurel
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
paletitsnow63
post Jan 25 2011, 01:44 AM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,384
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Denver, PA
Member No.: 16,714





0Z GFS shows big storm on EC during this period followed by visit from Siberia blink.gif


Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ny747pilot
post Jan 25 2011, 02:29 AM
Post #20




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 499
Joined: 4-February 10
From: Ridge, NY
Member No.: 21,383





QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jan 23 2011, 06:26 PM) *
Come on.

I was analysing the pattern and models to see if this was a worthy threat for me to start a thread, and you go ahead and do it first.

Now I'm all sad....
laugh.gif

Better luck when you start it wink.gif


--------------------
"We make a living by what we get but we make a life by what we give" -Winston Churchill
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

222 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Closed TopicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 31st August 2014 - 03:13 AM