 Feb 6th-8th Eastern Canada Winter Storm, Reality: (0-3 days out) Forecast |
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  Jan 29 2011, 01:02 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 2,085 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Burlington, ON Member No.: 21,757  |
Another Winter storm as shown by most models. Latest GFS runs have all been hinting some kind of storm development around this time-frame and even the Euro hints some kind of clipper and a possible Southern stream and if they both phase things may get interesting. Given the non-existent blocking and active SE Ridge signs point towards a inland tracker but still ways out. Snowstorms will post images in his post. Even the latest GGEM has the storm on the last frame developing across Texas and Clipper across Saskatchewan
This post has been edited by Ryan45: Feb 3 2011, 05:21 PM -------------------- View my broadcast of live weather here
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| Removed_Member_Snowstorms_* |
Jan 29 2011, 01:04 PM
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#2
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Nice.....first time Ryan
 Here's the GGEM hinting it...on the last frame! If the storm starts fiddling...then dates may need to be changed! Look at that SE Ridge 
This post has been edited by Snowstorms: Jan 29 2011, 01:04 PM
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| Removed_Member_Snowstorms_* |
Jan 29 2011, 02:13 PM
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#3
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12z ECMWF. Just beautiful. +NAO, tanking PNA and SE Ridge
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Jan 29 2011, 02:36 PM
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#4
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 401 Joined: 7-September 09 From: Thornhill, Ontario Member No.: 19,154 |
I was secretly hoping we would get a surprise snow storm at or around my birthday (feb 6) and it looks like it may be possible.
This post has been edited by snowgeek93: Jan 29 2011, 02:36 PM |
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Jan 29 2011, 02:46 PM
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#5
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 259 Joined: 7-January 10 From: Kitchener, ON Member No.: 20,828 |
On the models you were showing last night in the other thread were there not 2 seperate storms coming into the coast when the 1-3rd storm is hitting us? did one die out and the other is coming our way? and I could be totally wrong by the way as i have no experience at allll reading the models....i just looking at the blue green patches
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| Removed_Member_Snowstorms_* |
Jan 30 2011, 11:46 AM
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#6
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Another beauty on the 12z GFS. Active SE Ridge...and the H5 pattern looks similar to this current storm. Still ways out but something definitely to watch!
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gfs_pcp_216m.gif ( 53.57K )
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gfs_pcp_264m.gif ( 57.76K )
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Feb 2 2011, 10:01 AM
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#7
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Rank: Whirlwind Group: Member Posts: 48 Joined: 6-August 10 From: GTA Member No.: 23,339 |
Very active pattern thus far. This storm looks very intriguing. Given the non-existent blocking and SE Ridge there's the slight change we may see some kind of mixing with this storm but certainly something to watch.
Look at the minimal pressure...967mb
This post has been edited by Toronto-Snow: Feb 2 2011, 10:01 AM
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| Removed_Member_Snowstorms_* |
Feb 2 2011, 11:28 AM
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#8
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12z GFS. Perhaps 8-15cm in the darker green areas and 5cm in the lighter green areas. Cold after this.
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Feb 2 2011, 04:04 PM
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#9
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 980 Joined: 19-October 10 From: Hamilton, Ontario Member No.: 24,142 |
Will be interesting to see how the track of this thing changes over the next couple of days. Looks pretty good right now, let's see where this thing goes.
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Feb 2 2011, 05:48 PM
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#10
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 500 Joined: 19-September 10 From: Kincardine Member No.: 23,701 |
come on...NW shift!
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Feb 2 2011, 06:00 PM
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#11
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 469 Joined: 22-December 10 From: Oshawa Member No.: 24,813 |
QUOTE(cweber @ Feb 2 2011, 05:48 PM)  come on...NW shift! Lol this time I want a NW shift...just not too much Headed up to tiverton on friday, roads being cleared up there yet?
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Feb 2 2011, 06:06 PM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 548 Joined: 19-August 10 From: Brampton , Ontario , Canada Member No.: 23,423 |
at this time period the chances that this storm will NW would be ?
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Feb 2 2011, 07:14 PM
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#13
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Rank: Whirlwind Group: Member Posts: 43 Joined: 25-January 08 Member No.: 13,104 |
THAT STORM WILL BE MORE NORTHEAST THAT THE ONE WE JUST GOT A MORE QUEBEC/NEWBRUNSWIK TROUBLE MAKER I THINK
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| Removed_Member_Snowstorms_* |
Feb 2 2011, 09:00 PM
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#14
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ECMWF showed a general .48 to .70 qpf across the region, slightly more across E. Ont.
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Feb 2 2011, 09:04 PM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,516 Joined: 28-September 10 From: Ottawa (Eastern Ontario) Member No.: 23,775 |
TWN has Ottawa in 10cm for this date. The model seems to suggest a bit more. Will be interesting.
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Feb 2 2011, 09:05 PM
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#16
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,080 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 |
QUOTE(Snowstorms @ Feb 2 2011, 09:00 PM) ECMWF showed a general .48 to .70 qpf across the region, slightly more across E. Ont. 0.66" for Toronto. Let's hope the ECMWF stays more or less consistent with its further NW track compared to most other models. It is always good to have the ECMWF in your corner.
-------------------- New blog for southern Ontario!
Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)! http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/ "Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!" |
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| Removed_Member_Snowstorms_* |
Feb 2 2011, 09:07 PM
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#17
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Feb 2 2011, 09:05 PM) 0.66" for Toronto. Let's hope the ECMWF stays more or less consistent with its further NW track compared to most other models. It is always good to have the ECMWF in your corner. Yeah i knew that I'm concerned about this storm. Given the non-existent blocking and SE Ridge mixing needs to be watched for this storm perhaps even rain but the +PNA should keep it stable but just something to keep in mind. |
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Feb 2 2011, 09:12 PM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,080 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 |
QUOTE(Snowstorms @ Feb 2 2011, 09:07 PM) Yeah i knew that I'm concerned about this storm. Given the non-existent blocking and SE Ridge mixing needs to be watched for this storm perhaps even rain but the +PNA should keep it stable but just something to keep in mind. Ha, ya, I have a feeling it won't be. I know it is still 5-6 days away more or less, but most models in fact have this just south of us or just scraping us. The ECMWF is the best/furthest NW. I see where you are coming from, but with that much confidence of either all snow, or too far SE, it is hard to imagine mixing will occur. We shall see how this progresses over the next few days on the models. LET'S GO ECMWF! 
-------------------- New blog for southern Ontario!
Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)! http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/ "Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!" |
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| Removed_Member_Snowstorms_* |
Feb 2 2011, 09:15 PM
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#19
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Feb 2 2011, 09:12 PM) Ha, ya, I have a feeling it won't be. I know it is still 5-6 days away more or less, but most models in fact have this just south of us or just scraping us. The ECMWF is the best/furthest NW. I see where you are coming from, but with that much confidence of either all snow, or too far SE, it is hard to imagine mixing will occur. We shall see how this progresses over the next few days on the models. LET'S GO ECMWF! I know but this is something to consider given the La Nina starting to kick in to the overall pattern but the Non-existent blocking should keep the Cold air stable across Canada given the -EPO/+PNA but I'm just putting it out as a option. Still something to keep our eyes on. |
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Feb 2 2011, 10:17 PM
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#20
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 84 Joined: 15-January 11 Member No.: 25,112 |
Thought we could see 10cm with this storm but not so sure it will be much if anything now. Still time, we'll see.
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