Feb 12th-14th Eastern Canada Storm, Cogitation: Long Range [10-12 Days Out] FORECAST Options

[Ryan45]

Updated.. had to focus on one storm instead of multiple that show up in the time frame. Nice one Ryan..

00z
So far, it doesn't show anything for the time period.
06z
Also doesn't show anything in this time period.
12z
First storm on the 12th/13th






This post has been edited by Ryan45: Feb 2 2011, 09:03 PM

[Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*]

Change thread name to Feb 12th-14th Eastern Canada storm, you can not discuss three storms in one topic. Its best to keep this topic for now as those two other storms are unlikely at this point and the bottom is 8-15 days not 12-17

[Ryan45]

Change thread name to Feb 12th-14th Eastern Canada storm, you can not discuss three storms in one topic. Its best to keep this topic for now as those two other storms are unlikely at this point and the bottom is 8-15 days not 12-17

Sure thing, Snowstorms! If the 12z pans out there will be some large threads...

[Ryan45]

Snowstorms: 12z shows 2 storms in that time period..

[Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*]

Snowstorms: 12z shows 2 storms in that time period..

Ignore that, unless there's some consistency I would ignore that.

Pattern supports a inland storm but mixing should be watched.

[Ryan45]

Ignore that, unless there's some consistency I would ignore that.

Pattern supports a inland storm but mixing should be watched.

OK. Got it

I'm on chat.

[Ryan45]

OK, image post limit is being lame.. so heres the 18z GFS

[ottawasnowstorm]

Here's another storm that might be interesting. Mid febuary can bring in some big storms to southern and eastern ontario. Another one that wil be fun to watch.

[Ryan45]

Here's another storm that might be interesting. Mid febuary can bring in some big storms to southern and eastern ontario. Another one that wil be fun to watch.

For sure! Like I mentioned, lots of time for temperatures to change! I also like the consistency of the storms coming through.

[ottawasnowstorm]

For sure! Like I mentioned, lots of time for temperatures to change! I also like the consistency of the storms coming through.

The consistency might be great but some are worried about the storm next monday that might be small if anything. Eastern ontario looks good still, though.

But between the 12-15 looks pretty decent which is in your timeframe (except the 15). I know myforecast isn't regarded highly here but it is based on a model and it's throwing out some decent snow totals for Windsor and Toronto. Perhaps Ottawa, too. So I'm really interested in this mid month period. Keep us updated!

[EyesUP]

The consistency might be great but some are worried about the storm next monday that might be small if anything. Eastern ontario looks good still, though.

But between the 12-15 looks pretty decent which is in your timeframe (except the 15). I know myforecast isn't regarded highly here but it is based on a model and it's throwing out some decent snow totals for Windsor and Toronto. Perhaps Ottawa, too. So I'm really interested in this mid month period. Keep us updated!

What's with this warm up I keep hearing about starting around the 15th and on? Can anyone concur with this? Please don't tell me it's going to get warm, and if it is, please tell me it's just for 2 days or so at most. I just got my amazing amount of snow for sledding now.

[Bsim71]

What's with this warm up I keep hearing about starting around the 15th and on? Can anyone concur with this? Please don't tell me it's going to get warm, and if it is, please tell me it's just for 2 days or so at most. I just got my amazing amount of snow for sledding now.

Yes, I remember Brett made brief mention of it last week and again a day or two ago. Supposedly the computer models are hinting at a "significant" thaw for the eastern part of the continent. Still a ways away so hopefully it will change or as you said be very brief if it does occur. As an avid skier I'm dreading the prospect of having all this nice powder turn to granular icy crud. Brings back memories of 2 years ago when we had a week long thaw in February and it nuked the considerable snowpack that had accumulated throughout Dec/Jan. Worse still, the snows didn't return afterwards into March. Big thaw is fine in very late March or early April; not so much in February.

Hopefully, Brett will shed some more light on this in the coming days and break the news to us gently if it turns out that a not so favorable pattern change is in works for our neck of the woods.

[Weather X]

Yes, I remember Brett made brief mention of it last week and again a day or two ago. Supposedly the computer models are hinting at a "significant" thaw for the eastern part of the continent. Still a ways away so hopefully it will change or as you said be very brief if it does occur. As an avid skier I'm dreading the prospect of having all this nice powder turn to granular icy crud. Brings back memories of 2 years ago when we had a week long thaw in February and it nuked the considerable snowpack that had accumulated throughout Dec/Jan. Worse still, the snows didn't return afterwards into March. Big thaw is fine in very late March or early April; not so much in February.

Hopefully, Brett will shed some more light on this in the coming days and break the news to us gently if it turns out that a not so favorable pattern change is in works for our neck of the woods.

Yes that would not be pretty given how amazing things are looking outside right now...haven't had a good snowbase like this in 3 years so it would be best for it to stay for sure.

[knorthern_knight]

Yes that would not be pretty given how amazing things are looking outside right now...haven't had a good snowbase like this in 3 years so it would be best for it to stay for sure.

Wouldn't we be better off with a melt now, and a small melt later, rather than having everything stay around until a big melt in the spring? A big melt dumping into rivers all at once would increase the odds of local flooding.

[JJ Snowlover]

Wouldn't we be better off with a melt now, and a small melt later, rather than having everything stay around until a big melt in the spring? A big melt dumping into rivers all at once would increase the odds of local flooding.

Yes it would be, but when Mother nature gives you a thaw in February, it usually means she wants to dump on you in March!

[Weather X]

Wouldn't we be better off with a melt now, and a small melt later, rather than having everything stay around until a big melt in the spring? A big melt dumping into rivers all at once would increase the odds of local flooding.

I wouldn't mind that at all. In fact, I would love if the snowbase would continue to build to 5 feet and melt all at once sometime in April. I am an extreme weather addict.

[an uncanny otter]

I wouldn't mind that at all. In fact, I would love if the snowbase would continue to build to 5 feet and melt all at once sometime in April. I am an extreme weather addict.

It sounds fun until the water is at your house and it floods your basement and you lose thousands of dollars in property and possessions.

Down here in Chatham-Kent, that February 2009 thaw was a very big deal here. All the snow melted, plus we had a lot of rain to boot, which resulted in a state of emergency being declared in places like Wallaceburg. It was very bad, and an ice jam in the Sydenham river caused a lot of problems in the area. Check it out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cEMbABvXfs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOMA8mOoc2I...player_embedded







Basically... they're an incredibly thing to witness but you do not want to be affected by them when they happen.

[TriC]

It sounds fun until the water is at your house and it floods your basement and you lose thousands of dollars in property and possessions.

Down here in Chatham-Kent, that February 2009 thaw was a very big deal here. All the snow melted, plus we had a lot of rain to boot, which resulted in a state of emergency being declared in places like Wallaceburg. It was very bad, and an ice jam in the Sydenham river caused a lot of problems in the area. Check it out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cEMbABvXfs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOMA8mOoc2I...player_embedded







Basically... they're an incredibly thing to witness but you do not want to be affected by them when they happen.

There is lots of snow in the London area and you don't want it to melt all at once because 2 days later down in Chatham they will have a big flood from all the run off into the Thames river in the London area.

[Weather X]

Basically... they're an incredibly thing to witness but you do not want to be affected by them when they happen.
[/quote]

Agreed...this is too cool though. Unfortunately it happened in Feb. and affected all those poor residents. When you see such unusually high temps so early its messy I agree, but in the spring, hey, thats what's meant to happen: snowmelt.

[Torontoweather]

I think we may see some type of clipper system in the area(maybe two) within or around this time-frame. Models differ on strength, timing, track and precipitation whcih can be expected 144+hours out, however I have seen enough consistency to conclude that there should be some type of clipper system within this time-period. Depending on when exactly this looks to affect the area, the dates may need to be adjusted. Otherwise, I will continue to monitor this and may post some images tomorrow if I have time.
Have a GOOD SUPERBOWL SUNDAY!