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> Feb. 8-10 SE Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] Forecasts
PleaseSnowforAtl...
post Feb 5 2011, 01:40 PM
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QUOTE(hckyplayer8 @ Feb 5 2011, 01:34 PM) *
Huge shift West on the 12z Euro. Very nice hit for Northern and NW portions of the thread...NC...TN...N AL, N MS...

More amplified than the 0z but like I said, with the more amplified solution and no locking cold source the 0C isotherm also creeps farther NW this run.


Honestly, I doubt the storm is going to be this strong in reality. Euro always does this. It shows an extremely powerful storm affecting us only to come out as a weaker solution in the future. It is also currently the northern outlier. We'll see it's emsemble runs soon.


--------------------
Winter of 2010-201(Better then last season by far!)
Total Snow Accumulation for 10-11: 10 inches(Average is 2.0 inches)
Winter Storm Warnings: 1
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Snow Storms: 2
Christmas 2010 Snowstorm: 1.5 inches
January 9th-10th Snowstorm: 8.5 inches






The Epic Winter of 2009-2010(You will never be forgotten)

Total Snow Accumulation for 09-10: 6.75 inches(Average is 2.0 inches)
Winter Storm Warnings: 2
Winter Weather Advisories: 4
Snow Storms: 3
January 6th-8th SnowStorm - .75 inches
February 12-13th SnowStorm - 5.0 Inches

March 1st-3rd SnowStorm- .75-1.2 inches in areas where it could accumulate

Last Snowfall Over 4 inches- January 9th, 2011
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hckyplayer8
post Feb 5 2011, 01:48 PM
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QUOTE(PleaseSnowforAtlanta @ Feb 5 2011, 01:40 PM) *
Honestly, I doubt the storm is going to be this strong in reality. Euro always does this. It shows an extremely powerful storm affecting us only to come out as a weaker solution in the future. It is also currently the northern outlier. We'll see it's emsemble runs soon.


I'll disagree with ya. Storms not a bomb. Only 992 by the time its at a similar latitude as Cape May. Think I'm going to have to side with the Euro with this one (not this specific run) and say this one comes a good deal West.


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The views and opinions expressed in my posts are of my own and do not reflect the views of the USAF.
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1234snow
post Feb 5 2011, 01:53 PM
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QUOTE(hckyplayer8 @ Feb 5 2011, 01:48 PM) *
I'll disagree with ya. Storms not a bomb. Only 992 by the time its at a similar latitude as Cape May. Think I'm going to have to side with the Euro with this one (not this specific run) and say this one comes a good deal West.


I think he was talking more about QPF totals and WAA then surface pressure.


--------------------
"The path we have chosen for the present is full of hazards, as all paths are. The cost of freedom is always high, but Americans have always paid it. And one path we shall never choose, and that is the path of surrender, or submission."

John F. Kennedy

Total Snowfall for 2010-11 Winter: 13.25 inches

Total Ice Accumulation for 2010-11: .25 inches

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PleaseSnowforAtl...
post Feb 5 2011, 01:52 PM
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QUOTE(hckyplayer8 @ Feb 5 2011, 01:48 PM) *
I'll disagree with ya. Storms not a bomb. Only 992 by the time its at a similar latitude as Cape May. Think I'm going to have to side with the Euro with this one (not this specific run) and say this one comes a good deal West.



I'll take your word. The mets on Americanwx are too fascinated with this run to see the potential of how far west this storm can come, especially given the current and future weather pattern. It will do the NW trend. I can definitely see TN, N. AL, and N. MS get a good snowstorm out of this. GA and east of the Apps, probably not.

This post has been edited by PleaseSnowforAtlanta: Feb 5 2011, 01:54 PM


--------------------
Winter of 2010-201(Better then last season by far!)
Total Snow Accumulation for 10-11: 10 inches(Average is 2.0 inches)
Winter Storm Warnings: 1
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Snow Storms: 2
Christmas 2010 Snowstorm: 1.5 inches
January 9th-10th Snowstorm: 8.5 inches






The Epic Winter of 2009-2010(You will never be forgotten)

Total Snow Accumulation for 09-10: 6.75 inches(Average is 2.0 inches)
Winter Storm Warnings: 2
Winter Weather Advisories: 4
Snow Storms: 3
January 6th-8th SnowStorm - .75 inches
February 12-13th SnowStorm - 5.0 Inches

March 1st-3rd SnowStorm- .75-1.2 inches in areas where it could accumulate

Last Snowfall Over 4 inches- January 9th, 2011
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NWATL
post Feb 5 2011, 02:19 PM
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QUOTE(PleaseSnowforAtlanta @ Feb 5 2011, 01:52 PM) *
I'll take your word. The mets on Americanwx are too fascinated with this run to see the potential of how far west this storm can come, especially given the current and future weather pattern. It will do the NW trend. I can definitely see TN, N. AL, and N. MS get a good snowstorm out of this. GA and east of the Apps, probably not.


N Ga is still very much in play for snow/wintry mix. This has the potential of being our biggest snow in ATL this season. we shall see.....still 4-5 days out.
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PleaseSnowforAtl...
post Feb 5 2011, 02:27 PM
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QUOTE(NWATL @ Feb 5 2011, 02:19 PM) *
N Ga is still very much in play for snow/wintry mix. This has the potential of being our biggest snow in ATL this season. we shall see.....still 4-5 days out.


I didn't say we weren't, but you have to look at more then just model run to model run. There is no cold locking source. If there were, this would be a whole different ballgame. There also does not seem to be much blocking in the northern latitude which keeps storms farther south in the gulf and locks in cold air. The NAO still doesn't go negative either. I haven't checked the PNA, but I think that is still negative. We are reliant on the vortex in Canada being powerful and that can easily fail pushing our storm farther North along with the 0c isotherm. Euro has already taken a big step west and will probably do that for more runs with the low possibly tracking over central GA going Northeast. This unfortunately means the 0c isotherm goes northwest also as WAA kills us.

We, as in ATL either need a more southern track or a weaker low, but a weaker low also means less moisture available. I'm starting to see why getting a foot in ATL is almost impossible.


--------------------
Winter of 2010-201(Better then last season by far!)
Total Snow Accumulation for 10-11: 10 inches(Average is 2.0 inches)
Winter Storm Warnings: 1
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Snow Storms: 2
Christmas 2010 Snowstorm: 1.5 inches
January 9th-10th Snowstorm: 8.5 inches






The Epic Winter of 2009-2010(You will never be forgotten)

Total Snow Accumulation for 09-10: 6.75 inches(Average is 2.0 inches)
Winter Storm Warnings: 2
Winter Weather Advisories: 4
Snow Storms: 3
January 6th-8th SnowStorm - .75 inches
February 12-13th SnowStorm - 5.0 Inches

March 1st-3rd SnowStorm- .75-1.2 inches in areas where it could accumulate

Last Snowfall Over 4 inches- January 9th, 2011
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PleaseSnowforAtl...
post Feb 5 2011, 02:48 PM
Post #127




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FFC's current prediction's for Feb 9th-10th. I agree with this, but would probably move it all a bit more northwest.


--------------------
Winter of 2010-201(Better then last season by far!)
Total Snow Accumulation for 10-11: 10 inches(Average is 2.0 inches)
Winter Storm Warnings: 1
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Snow Storms: 2
Christmas 2010 Snowstorm: 1.5 inches
January 9th-10th Snowstorm: 8.5 inches






The Epic Winter of 2009-2010(You will never be forgotten)

Total Snow Accumulation for 09-10: 6.75 inches(Average is 2.0 inches)
Winter Storm Warnings: 2
Winter Weather Advisories: 4
Snow Storms: 3
January 6th-8th SnowStorm - .75 inches
February 12-13th SnowStorm - 5.0 Inches

March 1st-3rd SnowStorm- .75-1.2 inches in areas where it could accumulate

Last Snowfall Over 4 inches- January 9th, 2011
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NWATL
post Feb 5 2011, 02:57 PM
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QUOTE(PleaseSnowforAtlanta @ Feb 5 2011, 02:27 PM) *
I didn't say we weren't, but you have to look at more then just model run to model run. There is no cold locking source. If there were, this would be a whole different ballgame. There also does not seem to be much blocking in the northern latitude which keeps storms farther south in the gulf and locks in cold air. The NAO still doesn't go negative either. I haven't checked the PNA, but I think that is still negative. We are reliant on the vortex in Canada being powerful and that can easily fail pushing our storm farther North along with the 0c isotherm. Euro has already taken a big step west and will probably do that for more runs with the low possibly tracking over central GA going Northeast. This unfortunately means the 0c isotherm goes northwest also as WAA kills us.

We, as in ATL either need a more southern track or a weaker low, but a weaker low also means less moisture available. I'm starting to see why getting a foot in ATL is almost impossible.


ATL usually needs a more southerly track to get snow here. I have lived here almost my whole life and we typically see our best storms when Low tracks across the panhandle area. I DO NOT just look at model run to model run.....GFS is showing less of a storm at this point. Euro is now coming around to a much bigger storm. That is why I said it is too early to be leaving place like N GA out.
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NWATL
post Feb 5 2011, 02:56 PM
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QUOTE(PleaseSnowforAtlanta @ Feb 5 2011, 02:48 PM) *


FFC's current prediction's for Feb 9th-10th. I agree with this, but would probably move it all a bit more northwest.


This is a good sign that the NWS is already posting this MAP. Confidence is building.
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PleaseSnowforAtl...
post Feb 5 2011, 02:58 PM
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QUOTE(NWATL @ Feb 5 2011, 02:57 PM) *
ATL usually needs a more southerly track to get snow here. I have lived here almost my whole life and we typically see our best storms when Low tracks across the panhandle area. I DO NOT just look at model run to model run.....GFS is showing less of a storm at this point. Euro is now coming around to a much bigger storm. That is why I said it is too early to be leaving place like N GA out.



Bigger storm in this scenario would mean more WAA. The best for us is a bigger and stronger storm and a more southern track, but also in this scenario, a bigger storm means it phases off much earlier and goes inland much quicker. With proper blocking, it's hard to get the bigger and more coastal solution.


--------------------
Winter of 2010-201(Better then last season by far!)
Total Snow Accumulation for 10-11: 10 inches(Average is 2.0 inches)
Winter Storm Warnings: 1
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Snow Storms: 2
Christmas 2010 Snowstorm: 1.5 inches
January 9th-10th Snowstorm: 8.5 inches






The Epic Winter of 2009-2010(You will never be forgotten)

Total Snow Accumulation for 09-10: 6.75 inches(Average is 2.0 inches)
Winter Storm Warnings: 2
Winter Weather Advisories: 4
Snow Storms: 3
January 6th-8th SnowStorm - .75 inches
February 12-13th SnowStorm - 5.0 Inches

March 1st-3rd SnowStorm- .75-1.2 inches in areas where it could accumulate

Last Snowfall Over 4 inches- January 9th, 2011
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NWATL
post Feb 5 2011, 03:09 PM
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Great post by Robert from AmericanWx Forums regarding our storm next week. Mentions places like Georgia and especially the Carolina's "could" see a Major or Catastrophic Winter storm...

http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com/2011/02/...torm-looks.html
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Weatherlover
post Feb 5 2011, 03:11 PM
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QUOTE(PleaseSnowforAtlanta @ Feb 5 2011, 02:27 PM) *
I didn't say we weren't, but you have to look at more then just model run to model run. There is no cold locking source. If there were, this would be a whole different ballgame. There also does not seem to be much blocking in the northern latitude which keeps storms farther south in the gulf and locks in cold air. The NAO still doesn't go negative either. I haven't checked the PNA, but I think that is still negative. We are reliant on the vortex in Canada being powerful and that can easily fail pushing our storm farther North along with the 0c isotherm. Euro has already taken a big step west and will probably do that for more runs with the low possibly tracking over central GA going Northeast. This unfortunately means the 0c isotherm goes northwest also as WAA kills us.

We, as in ATL either need a more southern track or a weaker low, but a weaker low also means less moisture available. I'm starting to see why getting a foot in ATL is almost impossible.


There doesn't have to necessarily be a -NAO to get blocking if we have strong enough PV over E. Canada that will help supply cold air. Met Allan Huffman alluded to this as well the other day at americanwx forums, he listed some prominant SE storms where this was the case. If I can find that post I will quote it here. This has been shown on the models it just the position and strength has waffled on a lot of them. The 12z EURO wasn't that great for us, I feel a little better knowing the one model that was the furthest north with this SLP (Canadian) shifted much further south on it's recent run. I also heard the same aboutthe UKMET, but I haven't seen it yet. That's interesting, the past storms this year it and the EURO ahave been closely knit together on a track.

EDIT: NWATL, that map you posted is out of date. It's from the 4th.

This post has been edited by Weatherlover: Feb 5 2011, 03:25 PM


--------------------
Winter of 2011 - 2012 in Review
Number of Snowstorms this winter --> 0
Number of Icestorms this Winter --> 0
Number of Sleetstorms this winter --> 0
Total Snowfall Accumulations --> 0 inches
Total Ice Accumulations --> 0 inches
Total Sleet Accumulations --> 0 inches


"Never underestimate the power of mother nature."

"When it comes to computer models, the final solution is NEVER the final solution."

My Youtube Weather Page!
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PleaseSnowforAtl...
post Feb 5 2011, 03:21 PM
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QUOTE(Weatherlover @ Feb 5 2011, 03:11 PM) *
There doesn't have to necessarily be a -NAO to get blocking if we have strong enough PV over E. Canada that will help supply cold air. Met Allan Huffman alluded to this as well the other day at americanwx forums, he listed some prominant SE storms where this was the case. If I can find that post I will quote it here. This has been shown on the models it just the position and strength has waffled on a lot of them. The 12z EURO wasn't that great for us, I feel a little better knowing the one model that was the furthest north with this SLP (Canadian) shifted much further south on it's recent run.


That's why I mentioned that we are reliant on the vortex in Canada. That will dramatically change how this plays out depending on how that is. If it's weaker then it's forecasted, then this storm will come Northwest. If it's stronger then forecasted, the storm will go south.


--------------------
Winter of 2010-201(Better then last season by far!)
Total Snow Accumulation for 10-11: 10 inches(Average is 2.0 inches)
Winter Storm Warnings: 1
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Snow Storms: 2
Christmas 2010 Snowstorm: 1.5 inches
January 9th-10th Snowstorm: 8.5 inches






The Epic Winter of 2009-2010(You will never be forgotten)

Total Snow Accumulation for 09-10: 6.75 inches(Average is 2.0 inches)
Winter Storm Warnings: 2
Winter Weather Advisories: 4
Snow Storms: 3
January 6th-8th SnowStorm - .75 inches
February 12-13th SnowStorm - 5.0 Inches

March 1st-3rd SnowStorm- .75-1.2 inches in areas where it could accumulate

Last Snowfall Over 4 inches- January 9th, 2011
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ctj-carolina
post Feb 5 2011, 03:22 PM
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I have a harder time reading the Euro, but seems to me it did the NW move, but not much. It looks to me that N Ga and upstate SC(north and west of I-85) would see snow/rain, then switch to all snow as the Low moves north and east of us. Still more flip flopping until the monday clipper gets out of the way. I say Tue or Wed before we can nail the track and intensity.....we shall see. Over all the last 2 runs of the Euro were pretty good, just so long as it doesn't shoot up the apps.

This post has been edited by ctj-carolina: Feb 5 2011, 03:27 PM
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Hawksfan
post Feb 5 2011, 03:21 PM
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Interesting stuff guys, not a favorable patern for Southeast snow yet here we are talking about a southeast snowfall.....I'm honestly throwing my hands up in confusion. Reality there is going to be a decent SE snowstorm....who cashes in is the question at hand I believe. I'm still not a fan of all the catastrophic talk and JB went off the deep end today supposedly. Hype. Snowstorm yes, superstorm.....yeah right.

This post has been edited by Hawksfan: Feb 5 2011, 03:22 PM


--------------------
2010-11 Meteorological Winter Stats 12/1/10-3/1/11:

Total Snow for 2010-2011 - 7.0" - Yearly average 2" = 350% of normal
12/5/10 - first snow flurries
12/12/10-12/13/10 - Light dusting of snow
12/15/10-12/16/10 - Trace of snow - change over to ice
12/25/10-12/26/10 - about 2" of snow
1/9/11-1/10/11 - 4" of snow followed by 1/8"-1/4" of ice
1/11/11 - Trace of snow
1/12/11 - Trace of snow
2/9/11 - 2/10/11 - 1" accumulation
Lowest Temperature recorded - 13 on the morning of 12/14/10
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Weatherlover
post Feb 5 2011, 03:27 PM
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QUOTE(Hawksfan @ Feb 5 2011, 03:21 PM) *
Interesting stuff guys, not a favorable patern for Southeast snow yet here we are talking about a southeast snowfall.....I'm honestly throwing my hands up in confusion. Reality there is going to be a decent SE snowstorm....who cashes in is the question at hand I believe. I'm still not a fan of all the catastrophic talk and JB went off the deep end today supposedly. Hype. Snowstorm yes, superstorm.....yeah right.


JB is just trying to build up a subscription base and propaganda by saying that and frankly it annoys me a lot.


--------------------
Winter of 2011 - 2012 in Review
Number of Snowstorms this winter --> 0
Number of Icestorms this Winter --> 0
Number of Sleetstorms this winter --> 0
Total Snowfall Accumulations --> 0 inches
Total Ice Accumulations --> 0 inches
Total Sleet Accumulations --> 0 inches


"Never underestimate the power of mother nature."

"When it comes to computer models, the final solution is NEVER the final solution."

My Youtube Weather Page!
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NWATL
post Feb 5 2011, 03:31 PM
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QUOTE(Weatherlover @ Feb 5 2011, 03:11 PM) *
There doesn't have to necessarily be a -NAO to get blocking if we have strong enough PV over E. Canada that will help supply cold air. Met Allan Huffman alluded to this as well the other day at americanwx forums, he listed some prominant SE storms where this was the case. If I can find that post I will quote it here. This has been shown on the models it just the position and strength has waffled on a lot of them. The 12z EURO wasn't that great for us, I feel a little better knowing the one model that was the furthest north with this SLP (Canadian) shifted much further south on it's recent run. I also heard the same aboutthe UKMET, but I haven't seen it yet. That's interesting, the past storms this year it and the EURO ahave been closely knit together on a track.

EDIT: NWATL, that map you posted is out of date. It's from the 4th.


I did not post the MAP........PleasesnowforAtlanta posted it. I did not see the Feb 4th date on it until you mentioned this. They will probably re-issue a new Map this afternoon but I have not looked to see if they have.
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ctj-carolina
post Feb 5 2011, 03:30 PM
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Can you post what Jb said?
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NWATL
post Feb 5 2011, 03:36 PM
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18z NAM run at hr 60 is ALOT stronger.....Looks interesting for the Carolina's. Maybe even far N GA???

This post has been edited by NWATL: Feb 5 2011, 03:36 PM
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athensga
post Feb 5 2011, 03:37 PM
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QUOTE(ctj-carolina @ Feb 5 2011, 03:30 PM) *
Can you post what Jb said?

QUOTE
In all the years that I've gone back and researched, I cannot find anything to match the severity of what's coming next week. It will be the week of all winter weeks. Will be like surviving a nuclear war and coming out of the bunker afterwards to find devastation. Severe cold and a superstorm ...that is perhaps unequaled in winter weather history.


--------------------
Live by the models and die by the models,
its a crazy place to be with a big storm

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