Mar. 5-8th MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts & OBS Options

[ArmonkStorm]

Precipitation has started to move into the area, currently 41 IMBY.

[STEVE392]

an obs thread 2 days in advance?

eh wth, it was raining when i left for work this morning at 0630. went out to have a quick smoke and it appeared to have rained for awhile. everything is soaked.

[NYCSuburbs]

With the latest short range trends, it seems that there is a new consensus with the models that takes the storm west of NYC, along a track somewhere from western/central VA to eastern PA/NJ towards downeast Maine. What this change does is move the heavy QPF axis to central PA-central NY-central Maine instead of Interstate 95, where 2-4 inches of QPF fall, a good portion of it falling as frozen precipitation especially further north.

The main question for I-95 seems to be how much rain falls in the eastern side of the storm, ranging from barely 1/2" in NYC and 1/4" in central New Jersey on the 12z NAM, to 1.25" in NYC and 3/4" in central NJ on the GFS, to the GGEM which takes the storm west of the GFS with a track closer to the NAM, but has QPF in the eastern side of the storm similar to that of the GFS. The last 3 runs of the NAM have trended east and weaker, which to me is a signal that the 00z NAM was probably too far west. At this time, I'm thinking that the NAM is probably too low with the QPF, and I'd go with something more similar to the GFS/GGEM.

[locomusic01]

With the latest short range trends, it seems that there is a new consensus with the models that takes the storm west of NYC, along a track somewhere from western/central VA to eastern PA/NJ towards downeast Maine. What this change does is move the heavy QPF axis to central PA-central NY-central Maine instead of Interstate 95, where 2-4 inches of QPF fall, a good portion of it falling as frozen precipitation especially further north.

The main question for I-95 seems to be how much rain falls in the eastern side of the storm, ranging from barely 1/2" in NYC and 1/4" in central New Jersey on the 12z NAM, to 1.25" in NYC and 3/4" in central NJ on the GFS, to the GGEM which takes the storm west of the GFS with a track closer to the NAM, but has QPF in the eastern side of the storm similar to that of the GFS. The last 3 runs of the NAM have trended east and weaker, which to me is a signal that the 00z NAM was probably too far west. At this time, I'm thinking that the NAM is probably too low with the QPF, and I'd go with something more similar to the GFS/GGEM.

I'm trying to assess whether to take some precautions for flooding, though it looks like I probably should either way. Anyway, where does NEPA fall as far as the heaviest precip? Local mets are calling for ~1 - 1.5", but most other sources I've seen have indicated 2+". Any thoughts? If we get 2+, I'm pretty sure we're gonna be flooded out.

[NYCSuburbs]

A little OT but I don't have anywhere else to post it, my temperature just skyrocketed by 10 degrees in the last hour

My high temperature was supposed to be 54 degrees, yet I'm now at 57 degrees and still rising. At this rate, I'll probably reach the lower 60s today.

[jdrenken]

This is not viable as the correct system and the title dates will change accordingly.

[NYCSuburbs]

This is not viable as the correct system and the title dates will change accordingly.

The date for this thread should be Mar 5-7, as there is nothing between March 8-10.

[jdrenken]

The date for this thread should be Mar 5-7, as there is nothing between March 8-10.

The NAM shows this system still hitting NE ME early on the 8th, so I included it just for coverage.

[NYCSuburbs]

The NAM shows this system still hitting NE ME early on the 8th, so I included it just for coverage.

I missed that small detail, the storm does last into the 8th. Thanks for correcting the date for this thread.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Mar 5 2011, 11:22 AM

[phillyfan]

Looks like the Schuylkill River might get close to flood stage with this rain storm, my guess is if it gets this close from this storm that it may flood in Thursday's rain storm.

[telejunkie]

Temps have already surpassed the projected hi temp for the weekend, currently sitting at 51F. Starting to get concerned about flooding here since I live on a small creek. Heading out to see if I can find some burlap sandbags at the local hardware. 2" rain along with a weekends worth of melting snow could easily put it over the bank at my house.

[Fire/Rescue]

A little OT but I don't have anywhere else to post it, my temperature just skyrocketed by 10 degrees in the last hour

Same here, I was forecasted to only get into the upper 40's today and I am now at 56.9

[snofan]

A little OT but I don't have anywhere else to post it, my temperature just skyrocketed by 10 degrees in the last hour

My high temperature was supposed to be 54 degrees, yet I'm now at 57 degrees and still rising. At this rate, I'll probably reach the lower 60s today.

Right now here in Northern Vermont, we are getting gusty south winds and our temp is 44. The ice is dripping off the roof, but the snow pack remains steady at 24." Our snow pack has turned into cement with a .25 glaze coating.

No rain yet, just sprinkles.

Again 44 here up from 41 around 2 hours ago.

[psu1313]

Are those that are getting the big jumps in temps seeing sun? It's mild down here in Arlington but we don't have the sun so it's keeping temps from really flying. We're at 56 with a really nice south wind.

[locomusic01]

Are those that are getting the big jumps in temps seeing sun? It's mild down here in Arlington but we don't have the sun so it's keeping temps from really flying. We're at 56 with a really nice south wind.

I've gone from 36 to 45 in the last hour and a half or so, not much sun though. Mostly just a really warm breeze.

Goodbye, snowpack.

[snofan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1236 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S. GUSTY S-SW WINDS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND OVER ADRNDKS. MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR PERIODS BEYOND TODAY AS SLOW MOVING FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WX EVENT TO NRN ZONES. WILL ALSO NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FLOOD THREAT. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES THAT ARE IN EFFECT REGARDING THE WINTER STORM WATCH. A QUICK LOOK AT 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS NO BIG SURPRISES.

[Undertakerson]

A pretty pic of the moisture being drawn in

[attachment=125558:16.gif]

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vi...3&region=us

[snofan]

Temps have already surpassed the projected hi temp for the weekend, currently sitting at 51F. Starting to get concerned about flooding here since I live on a small creek. Heading out to see if I can find some burlap sandbags at the local hardware. 2" rain along with a weekends worth of melting snow could easily put it over the bank at my house.

Good luck. I hate this part of winter. Hate it! I know it's a strong word, but it can get ugly here when the snow melts and mud season appears. Looking at the models, more of the white stuff will replace what is melting today. Floods and then snowstorms are not fun. Hopefully you won't have any flooding.

[WhiteChristmas]

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph....1,1,1,1,1"

Man that is high!!

[jdrenken]

Please post your flooding post in here.