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> Summer 2011/ long range forecast and discussion, Temperature, precip,and flooding
windman
post May 8 2011, 10:10 PM
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Not surprised that 2008 is being mentioned as an analog, as we're moving out of a La Nina and towards neutral territory... We had bigtime severe weather early in the season from late May through mid-late June... But then after that, things kind of fizzled, except for a short active period in mid August... Will be interesting to see how this summer plays out... But I think it will probably be more active than the last 2 summers...
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Niyologist
post May 8 2011, 10:28 PM
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What I don't understand is that why would the East have Much Above Average Temperatures at this summer, when there's going to be a Neutral ENSO by that time?

This post has been edited by Niyologist: May 8 2011, 10:28 PM


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stuffradio
post May 9 2011, 12:08 AM
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So, from the websites you guys linked to for the CFS... I'd be at Normal temperatures in my area. I'd prefer 2009 level temperatures, where starting next week in 2009 it kicked off a summer long very hot heat oriented summer! I remember because it was so out of the ordinary for people to be sizzling around here and in Vancouver going to the beach and playing Volleyball in May! (Not Vancouver WA)

Does that mean it will be either at Normal or Above Normal temps for me this summer? It's been a miserable Spring for the most part which is what it was like in '09.
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Fire/Rescue
post May 13 2011, 08:33 AM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ May 8 2011, 11:28 PM) *
What I don't understand is that why would the East have Much Above Average Temperatures at this summer, when there's going to be a Neutral ENSO by that time?

WOW....I thought this Summer here in the Mid-Atlantic was slated to be on the "Cooler" side compared to average?
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Noreastericane
post May 19 2011, 10:10 AM
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I've been saying since last winter that I think this summer will be another one with well above-average temperatures for DC/Baltimore. I still think that. I agree with the 2008 analogs that Jdrenken posted.


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Hertz
post May 20 2011, 11:17 AM
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@Noreastercane: Summer '08 was rather hot for the most part in DC/Baltimore but it wasn't as bad as last year + August was actually fairly mild.

Anyways for my area (Cleveland) it looks like a warm start to June, then trending cooler and wetter each week, per long-range ECMWF - Mid Atlantic region looks warm until mid month then trending wetter/milder:

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/...gh-mid-june.asp

It's pretty easy to see how it starts off warm in the east but the warm areas get smaller and smaller each week (eventually down to just "mild" by the third week).

That actually is not asimilar to June 2008, which was warm in the East, but clearly the warmest weather was in the first half.

Any thoughts?

This post has been edited by Hertz: May 20 2011, 11:18 AM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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WeatherMatrix
post May 20 2011, 01:05 PM
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AccuWeather.com will be issuing its Summer 2011 Forecast early next week. Meanwhile, Paul Pastelok says:

QUOTE
I just took a look at the new European monthlies that came out this morning. They show a significant ridge over the southern Plains in June shifting into the interior Southwest, then into the central Rockies during the mid- to late-summer season. This is the trend that we have in our summer forecast, which will be available Tuesday.


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Fire/Rescue
post May 20 2011, 02:11 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMatrix @ May 20 2011, 02:05 PM) *
AccuWeather.com will be issuing its Summer 2011 Forecast early next week. Meanwhile, Paul Pastelok says:

Looking forward to Accu-weathers thoughts for the Summer here in the Mid-Atlantic huh.gif
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TheMaineMan
post May 20 2011, 05:27 PM
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I don't think this will be 2009 again. Sure, coming out of a negative ENSO and going into neutral, but spring 2009 was bone dry and this spring has been quite wet. This spring has also been much cooler than spring 2009.

My prediction for the northeast is actually close-to-average temperatures and slightly-wetter-than-normal conditions... nothing too extreme. Heat waves will be balanced by cool spells, dry spells by wet spells.


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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Hertz
post May 20 2011, 06:45 PM
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QUOTE(TheMaineMan @ May 20 2011, 06:27 PM) *
I don't think this will be 2009 again. Sure, coming out of a negative ENSO and going into neutral, but spring 2009 was bone dry and this spring has been quite wet. This spring has also been much cooler than spring 2009.

My prediction for the northeast is actually close-to-average temperatures and slightly-wetter-than-normal conditions... nothing too extreme. Heat waves will be balanced by cool spells, dry spells by wet spells.


Does that prediction cover my region (Northern Ohio)? I'd take that forecast any day after last summer! smile.gif

If it doesn't cover my region, how does your prediction for my area differ from what I quoted?

This post has been edited by Hertz: May 20 2011, 06:45 PM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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TheMaineMan
post May 21 2011, 12:21 PM
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Unfortunately I think your region will be warmer than average, but nothing extreme. Definitely wetter than average as well, but once again, nothing extreme.


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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Hertz
post May 21 2011, 01:38 PM
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QUOTE(TheMaineMan @ May 21 2011, 01:21 PM) *
Unfortunately I think your region will be warmer than average, but nothing extreme. Definitely wetter than average as well, but once again, nothing extreme.


How much warmer than average (in degrees F)? Last summer was about 4F warmer than average, do you think it's another +4F summer coming up, or more moderately warmer (like +1F to +2F)?

Also what's your reasoning for thinking my region will be warmer than average (even though I'm ever so close to the northeast) and what regions of the country in general do you think would be warmer than average (western/eastern/southern/northern borders of positive anomaly zone I'm in)? Do you think areas like Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, Indianapolis, Des Moines, Omaha, Saint Louis, etc. (other central-southern midwestern cities) will also be warmer than average?

If nothing else I'd really appreciate an answer to the last question, as I hate feeling like I'm the "lone" one experiencing the warmth. It'll help my mood some just to know I'm part of a broader zone and not just in a small "warm pocket". I'd be interested in knowing the anomalies (second paragraph) as well. If you're not sure about bordering my zone, that part's okay to skip.

EDIT: One final aspect I would be interested in is forecast confidence. This can be expressed simply as [prob of above normal temps/prob near normal temps/prob below normal temps], for example [50/30/20] would mean 50% chance above normal, 30% chance near normal, and 20% chance below normal temps. This can apply to others posting their thoughts as well (see post below).

This post has been edited by Hertz: May 21 2011, 02:14 PM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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Hertz
post May 21 2011, 01:54 PM
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Actually it would also be nice if anyone else seeing this thread could pool up thoughts for my area this summer (temperature anomalies in degrees F, as well as precipitation anomalies, and if temperature anomlies are positive, a note saying if there should at least be other warm cities in the remainder of the south/central midwest - whether you think Chicago will also have positive anomalies would be a good general focus, as I don't like having warmer temperatures overall than they have).

The comparisions to other cities are unnecessary though, in the case you don't feel comfortable making them.

This post has been edited by Hertz: May 21 2011, 01:57 PM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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TheMaineMan
post May 21 2011, 04:36 PM
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My forecast confidence is low at this point since it's only mid-May. At the end of the month I'll have a better clue. Also, the northeast (specifically northern new england) is my strong point, so I admit that I'm not very skilled at predicting your specific region.

Based on ENSO, jet stream patterns and flows, LRC and other natural signs, I'd guess 1 or 1.5F above average.

Basically my thought is that the core of warmth will be in the middle of the country, and then at the coasts (especially northern coasts) a bit cooler than average, with other areas somewhere in between based on proximity.



--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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Hertz
post May 21 2011, 06:19 PM
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QUOTE(TheMaineMan @ May 21 2011, 05:36 PM) *
My forecast confidence is low at this point since it's only mid-May. At the end of the month I'll have a better clue. Also, the northeast (specifically northern new england) is my strong point, so I admit that I'm not very skilled at predicting your specific region.

Based on ENSO, jet stream patterns and flows, LRC and other natural signs, I'd guess 1 or 1.5F above average.

Basically my thought is that the core of warmth will be in the middle of the country, and then at the coasts (especially northern coasts) a bit cooler than average, with other areas somewhere in between based on proximity.


Thanks! smile.gif

I don't feel alone with that forecast, because it implies many of the cities I mentioned would surely be above normal as well, because they're even more in the middle of the country. And even if it's low confidence, I appreciate the prediction. 1 to 1.5F above normal is essentially a relatively typical summer as far as I'm concerned, or at least it shouldn't feel nearly as bad as last year.

I'd appreciate (if you don't mind) seeing updated thoughts at the end of the month or any other time if your preliminary forecast changes.

And if other forecasters who see this have thoughts for my area, I'd still be interested in seeing them! (Refer to the posts above for the main things I'm looking for.) Thanks.

This post has been edited by Hertz: May 21 2011, 06:23 PM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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Removed_Member_Garrett_*
post May 30 2011, 01:06 PM
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AccuWeather's Summer Forecast was supposed to have been released by now. Where can I find it?
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post May 30 2011, 01:33 PM
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QUOTE(Garrett @ May 30 2011, 02:06 PM) *
AccuWeather's Summer Forecast was supposed to have been released by now. Where can I find it?



You are not alone, I was thinking the same exact thing!!

It could have been because of last weeks tornados.
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Fire/Rescue
post May 31 2011, 12:15 PM
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QUOTE(Garrett @ May 30 2011, 02:06 PM) *
AccuWeather's Summer Forecast was supposed to have been released by now. Where can I find it?


QUOTE(NYsnowlover @ May 30 2011, 02:33 PM) *
You are not alone, I was thinking the same exact thing!!

It was just released about an hour ago, I am gonna post the link shortly
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Fire/Rescue
post May 31 2011, 12:22 PM
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Accuweather has just released it's (Summer 2011) outlook, below you will find a link to the page of maps and article that break down different areas of the country.

Summer "2011" HERE

Here is a summary map for the entire country


Attached File(s)
Attached File  Summer.jpg ( 33.6K ) Number of downloads: 1
 
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Removed_Member_Garrett_*
post May 31 2011, 05:11 PM
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I don't know what to go with? He has the green "wetter, more humid midsummer" bubble over VA..then he turns completely around on that and says hot and dry?

I'm lost.
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