Summer 2011/ long range forecast and discussion, Temperature, precip,and flooding Options

[supersaver_run_d...]

Is this summer prediction going by a meteorological or astronomical version of summer. If it is the former, they may want to edit the comment about "no summer in the Great Lakes" to "two weeks of summer in the Great Lakes" because since Memorial Day and through the next week to week and a half, summer is in full swing here.

[stuffradio]

I'll take normal temps. I'm a bit further inland than where the below normal temps are.

[Hertz]

DTX's summer weather outlook:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dtx/web/dtx...utlook_2011.pdf

Do you think I can expect similar conditions here in Cleveland (i.e. the same forecast overall)? Although not my favorite pattern, I'd take it, especially over last year and with respect for forecast highs to be "near to slightly below normal".

This post has been edited by Hertz: Jun 3 2011, 09:48 AM

[Hail_on_Me]

I've been saying since last winter that I think this summer will be another one with well above-average temperatures for DC/Baltimore. I still think that. I agree with the 2008 analogs that Jdrenken posted.

I fully agree with this summer being like the last along the mid atlantic. I posted in the spring long range thread back around march that we would have a cool/wet spring followed by a hot and dry summer.(edit:double checked and looks like i failed on spring big-time, but the transion to a hot dry summer remains. Hope I fail on summer as well )

My assumptions came from studying the recent winters of 09/10 and 10/11 along with the transiton of La nina towards a netual ENSO.

I am predecting that most parts of NJ will be entering D0 conditions by the end of June/start of July. D1-2 by end of July with some reliefe in Aug.

Fully expecting last summer conditons here if not hotter and drier.

This post has been edited by Hail_on_Me: Jun 6 2011, 07:58 PM

[Hertz]

Fully expecting last summer conditons here if not hotter and drier.

Cool down a bit!, last summer was a once in 50 years things in the MA. A match is doubtful, but saying even hotter is simply wishcasting/bittercasting.

Plus we are not in the same ENSO phase; last year we were rapidly diving into La Nina from El Nino, and this year we're moving from La Nina to neutral. Analogues for the latter scenario (2008 might be a good one) support some hot weather, but mainly in the first half of the summer and still not as oppressive as last year (June 2008 in the MA was much warmer than normal, but still on average 1-3 degrees cooler than June 2010, and the negative differences increased if anything in July and August when comparing '08 to '10).

Anyways could you at least see things a bit more moderate around here (Cleveland OH)?

This post has been edited by Hertz: Jun 8 2011, 07:51 PM

[Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*]

I know that tis may be a little bit late to post on here, but here it is, the CPC's monthly outlook discussion for June of 2011, it was first issued on May 31, 2011.

CODE

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300PM EDT TUESDAY MAY 31 2011

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUNE 2011

THE UPDATED OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 2011 IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF THE MONTH ACCORDING TO SHORT AND EXTENDED
RANGE FORECASTS FROM THE GFS AND CFS VERSION 2 MODELS. THE CFS VERSION 2 IS A
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVED VERSION OF THE CFS MODEL, ESPECIALLY IN ITS ABILITY TO
BLEND INFORMATION FROM THE INITIAL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS, IMPORTANT FOR
WEATHER PREDICTION IN THE FIRST 14 DAYS, AND CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR
PREDICTIONS AFTER THAT. SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND LOCAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ALONG COASTAL AREAS CAN FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO THE FORECAST,
AS CAN LONG TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

LA NINA CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN LATE MAY. THE LATEST WEEKLY
MEAN SSTS IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION WERE ONLY ABOUT 0.2 C BELOW AVERAGE. BELOW
NORMAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EQUATOR ARE CONFINED TO A SHALLOW LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. ABOVE NORMAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES
EXTEND FROM LESS THAN 100M DEPTH TO AROUND 300 METERS, MAKING AVERAGE OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT IN THE UPPER 300 METERS OF THE EAST CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
CLOSE TO 0.6 C ABOVE AVERAGE IN SPITE OF BELOW NORMAL SSTS. A MODERATE TO
STRONG MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) HAS CONTRIBUTED TO VARIABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS REESTABLISHED AT LEAST SOME OF THE ANOMALIES NORMALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH LA NINA CONDITIONS AFTER A TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTION DUE TO THE MJO EARLIER
IN MAY. THIS SUGGEST THAT SOME RESIDUAL ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ANOMALIES
ASSOCIATED WITH LAST WINTERS LA NINA MAY PERSIST IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS, BUT
WITH EQUATORIAL SSTS NOW NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC, A TRANSITION TO ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED IN JUNE.

LAST WINTER'S LA NINA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INDIRECT IMPACT ON THE
U.S. CLIMATE IN JUNE DUE PRIMARILY TO SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES. SPRINGTIME
PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA HAVE PRODUCED LARGE AREAS OF
ANOMALOUSLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, EASTWARD TO TEXAS TO THE GULF COAST AND THE CAROLINAS. ABNORMALLY WET
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND. SOIL
MOISTURE ANOMALIES, IN TURN AFFECT THE CHANCES OF WARMER OR COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DUE TO ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF SOLAR ENERGY BEING USED FOR
EVAPORATION RATHER THAN HEATING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES
CAN ALSO INFLUENCE PRECIPITATION THROUGH AN INCREASE OR DECREASE IN LOCAL
MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS EFFECT IS MOST IMPORTANT IN DRIER REGIONS WHERE
PERCENTAGE-WISE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY ARE LARGER THAN
IN NORMALLY WETTER REGIONS.

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 2011 CALLS FOR ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SHORT TERM FORECASTS FOR A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
HAVE RESULTED IN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST ISSUED
IN MID-MAY. ABOVE NORMAL SNOW PACK AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE REGION MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO LOWERING MEAN TEMPERATURES. THE AREA OF
ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTENDS TO THE PACIFIC COAST
UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF BELOW NORMAL LOCAL SST'S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED IN TEXAS, PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST
WHERE INITIAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE DRIER THAN USUAL. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS
DURING THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF THE MONTH. AS A RESULT, A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN THE COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST FOR ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED IN THE SOUTHEAST WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST
ISSUED EARLIER THIS MONTH. ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN ALASKA DUE TO AN EXPECTED WARM START TO THE MONTH AS
INDICATED BY EXTENDED RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS.

ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND TEXAS DUE TO DRY SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND
STRONG INDICATION BY THE CFS FORECAST. THE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE ELEVATED FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS AREA EXTENDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING UNUSUALLY HEAVY RAIN TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON WHICH COULD PUSH MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ABOVE THE NORMAL JUNE MONTHLY TOTALS IN THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH. SHORT
TERM FORECASTS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, INCREASING THE CHANCE THAT
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE MEDIAN IN THESE AREAS. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN REGIONS WHERE SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY
SUBSTANTIALLY WETTER THAN NORMAL, AND SO WILL PROVIDE A LOCAL MOISTURE SOURCE
THAT SHOULD SLIGHTLY ENHANCE THE CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
EVEN INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH.

SIGNALS ARE CONFLICTING OR ABSENT ELSEWHERE, RESULTING IN A FORECAST FOR EQUAL
CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURE AND BELOW, NEAR,
AND ABOVE MEDIAN FOR PRECIPITATION.

LAST MONTHS OUTLOOK, BASED ON THE OLDER NORMALS PERIOD REFLECT MORE OF A MIX
BETWEEN TREND AND SHORT TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE CURRENT SET OF
FORECASTS BASED ON THE NEW NORMALS, WHICH WILL REFLECT TRENDS ONLY WHEN THEY
ARE RELATIVELY STRONG OR FOR TRENDS THAT HAVE EMERGED ONLY RECENTLY.


FORECASTER: DAVID UNGER


THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.



THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK...FOR JUL ... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU JUN 16 2011


THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD.

$$

[Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*]

I fully agree with this summer being like the last along the mid atlantic. I posted in the spring long range thread back around march that we would have a cool/wet spring followed by a hot and dry summer.(edit:double checked and looks like i failed on spring big-time, but the transion to a hot dry summer remains. Hope I fail on summer as well )

My assumptions came from studying the recent winters of 09/10 and 10/11 along with the transiton of La nina towards a netual ENSO.

I am predecting that most parts of NJ will be entering D0 conditions by the end of June/start of July. D1-2 by end of July with some reliefe in Aug.

Fully expecting last summer conditons here if not hotter and drier.

I think that we will experience a above normal month of June temperature wise, but we will experience a normal to below normal months of July and August, and all three of those months will have average to above average precipitin.

[TheMaineMan]

As predicted, we've been in a tug of war so far. A week of warmth, a week of cool, etc. Rain/dry has been a tug of war as well. Overall, close to average temps and precip.

[Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*]

As predicted, we've been in a tug of war so far. A week of warmth, a week of cool, etc. Rain/dry has been a tug of war as well. Overall, close to average temps and precip.

I am just hoping that the entire summer will not be hot like the one we had gone through last year, (it was too hot and it was too dry), but I do not think it will, instead I think that just the month of June will be warm and the other two months of July and August will be normal to slightly below normal.

[Hertz]

I am just hoping that the entire summer will not be hot like the one we had gone through last year, (it was too hot and it was too dry), but I do not think it will, instead I think that just the month of June will be warm and the other two months of July and August will be normal to slightly below normal.

That's more what I like to hear! (It also fits analogs not too badly, unlike the couple previous forecasts for a hot pattern all summer, which seems to have less support from analogs - the analogs seem to pretty clearly suggest June's going to be the warmest compared to normal when I look at them.) June's almost half over already anyways and pretty clear it's going to finish above normal when looking at things (in spite of some back-and-forth).

For my area, what would your predicted magnitute of departures be for each month (I'm from Cleveland, OH)?

This post has been edited by Hertz: Jun 13 2011, 10:39 PM

[Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*]

That's more what I like to hear! (It also fits analogs not too badly, unlike the couple previous forecasts for a hot pattern all summer, which seems to have less support from analogs - the analogs seem to pretty clearly suggest June's going to be the warmest compared to normal when I look at them.) June's almost half over already anyways and pretty clear it's going to finish above normal when looking at things (in spite of some back-and-forth).

For my area, what would your predicted magnitute of departures be for each month (I'm from Cleveland, OH)?

I think thai in your area, you will see temps that are slightly below average to average, and that is not all that bad!!!

[Hertz]

I think thai in your area, you will see temps that are slightly below average to average, and that is not all that bad!!!

I agree, I'd be perfectly okay with a normal summer! Don't need it to be particularly cool or anything; that would be nice but even average would be extremely welcome esp. after last year.

I'm assuming the "slightly below average to average" applies just for July and August, or does it also apply for the rest of June in my area?

[Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*]

I agree, I'd be perfectly okay with a normal summer! Don't need it to be particularly cool or anything; that would be nice but even average would be extremely welcome esp. after last year.

I'm assuming the "slightly below average to average" applies just for July and August, or does it also apply for the rest of June in my area?

I think that your july will be average, and your August will be slightly below average, and both of them will have average to slightly above average rainfall.

[Hertz]

I think that your july will be average, and your August will be slightly below average, and both of them will have average to slightly above average rainfall.

Sounds pretty close to what you said for those two months for your region (and the analogs do slightly support August being coolest of the summer relative to normal, albeit pretty close to July).

Do you have any thoughts for my region in the 2nd half of June?

[Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*]

Sounds pretty close to what you said for those two months for your region (and the analogs do slightly support August being coolest of the summer relative to normal, albeit pretty close to July).

Do you have any thoughts for my region in the 2nd half of June?

I think that for the second part of June that it will still be slightly above normal.



Yea, I do not like hot weather either!!!

[Hertz]

I think that for the second part of June that it will still be slightly above normal.



Yea, I do not like hot weather either!!!

By slightly how many degrees (Farenheit) are you estimating? If it's only a degree or two it's not really that bad for me. It's when you get towards 3 degrees or more that I start thinking "hot". (2.5 degrees or more though for July, but you already said near normal for that month.)

Well otherwise I look forward to later in the summer - I hope your prediction for a moderate July and August comes to pass.

Really my full question would be, what would you see as a departure in my area for the entire rest of the summer (through August 31)? I would guess slightly above-above normal late June, normal July, and normal-slightly below normal August would equal just about normal in the end for the 2 1/2 month period (and like I said before I'd be delighted even for merely normal after how hot it was last year), but is that what you're thinking?

This post has been edited by Hertz: Jun 14 2011, 09:15 PM

[Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*]

By slightly how many degrees (Farenheit) are you estimating? If it's only a degree or two it's not really that bad for me. It's when you get towards 3 degrees or more that I start thinking "hot". (2.5 degrees or more though for July, but you already said near normal for that month.)

Well otherwise I look forward to later in the summer - I hope your prediction for a moderate July and August comes to pass.

Really my full question would be, what would you see as a departure in my area for the entire rest of the summer (through August 31)? I would guess slightly above-above normal late June, normal July, and normal-slightly below normal August would equal just about normal in the end for the 2 1/2 month period (and like I said before I'd be delighted even for merely normal after how hot it was last year), but is that what you're thinking?

For the month of June (or whatever is left of it) will be 1-2 degrees above normal

The months of July and august may be up to 1 degree below normal, or those two mints may just be normal, I am much better with my winter forecasts that my summer forecasts.

I hope that clears things up for you!!

[Hertz]

It definitely clears things up for me. 1-2 degs above normal rest of June and normal to 1 deg below July and August is very tolerable IMO. I hope you're correct and it isn't searing hot.

Thanks.

[Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*]

It definitely clears things up for me. 1-2 degs above normal rest of June and normal to 1 deg below July and August is very tolerable IMO. I hope you're correct and it isn't searing hot.

Thanks.

I hope that I am right also!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Hertz]

Newest ECMWF supports notion of a near normal mid/late summer for me/much of northeastern region:
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/...st-update-1.asp

Warm in Canada, except seasonable in far western Canada and parts of Ontairo/Quebec; little warm noses sticking into the western Great Lakes (IL/WI/upper MI area) and another one right by NYC but mainly off the Atlantic coast, seasonable July/August rest of US.

Looks to be a warm outlook from IA/MN eastward for the US this fall, with the exception of parts of the Mid-Atlantic states (seasonable there), also warm east of a similar east/west point in Canada, but for now I'm not concerned what the fall will bring - if it has to be warmer than normal in just one of the two seasons I'd much rather it be fall anyways!