Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Do ensemble medians exist?
beninbaltimore
post Mar 21 2011, 07:54 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,292
Joined: 8-April 10
From: Baltimore, MD
Member No.: 22,491





Hi,
I haven't researched this heavily but does anyone know why ensembles are presented as means rather than medians? When I look at the ensemble members on ewall, let's say the SREF, it displays the mean in the bottom right. However, there are 21 members, thus any outliers can have a substantial impact on the mean with a sample size of 21. Medians are less affected by outliers with a small sample size. Are there any medians out there or products available to the public?
Now, I'm not questioning why it's done this way as either I am not knowledgeable enough and/or obviously, the means are shown for a reason. It's just something I've thought about because I do statistical analysis sometimes on small sample sizes, not so much for final results, but more to get a sense of what direction the data is going in. Thanks in advance.


--------------------
You can lead a horse to water but a pencil must be lead. - Stan Laurel
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMatrix
post Mar 23 2011, 11:38 AM
Post #2




Admin
***

Group: Administrator
Posts: 7,122
Joined: 6-March 05
From: State College, PA
Member No.: 2





Great question -- I haven't seen any operational products with medians, but a Google search shows that it is a concept being (at least) tested in the research community. Looking at "spaghetti plots" showing all the members will give you an idea how far off the outliers are. Maybe because of the way they do the ensembles, the range of all is wide, but none are true outliers?


--------------------
-- Jesse Ferrell, FORUM ADMIN & MODERATOR

-- AccuWeather.com Meteorologist / Social Media Coordinator

-- My Blog | My Facebook Page




HELPFUL LINKS: MODEL FAQ / WEATHER QUESTIONS | FORUM FAQ / QUESTIONS
STAY ON TOPIC! TALK ABOUT PAST STORMS | TALK ABOUT NON-WEATHER STUFF
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
beninbaltimore
post Mar 30 2011, 05:20 PM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,292
Joined: 8-April 10
From: Baltimore, MD
Member No.: 22,491





Thanks for your response Weathermatrix!


--------------------
You can lead a horse to water but a pencil must be lead. - Stan Laurel
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 29th November 2014 - 04:42 AM