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> MidAtl/NE Spring Temp Survey, Your thoughts on when temps moderate- 3 days running 70+
2011 Spring Warmth Predictions
For Mid Atl (VA, MD, DE, PA, NY, NJ)
Near term (4/1-4/15) [ 6 ] ** [20.69%]
Wait a bit (4/16-4/30) [ 12 ] ** [41.38%]
May Day (5/1-5/15) [ 6 ] ** [20.69%]
Darn Near Memorial Day (5/16-5/31) [ 4 ] ** [13.79%]
Spring Cancel (6/1-6/15) [ 1 ] ** [3.45%]
For New England Regions
Near term (4/1-4/15) [ 3 ] ** [11.11%]
Wait a bit (4/16-4/30) [ 2 ] ** [7.41%]
May Day (5/1-5/15) [ 11 ] ** [40.74%]
Darn Near Memorial Day (5/16-5/31) [ 9 ] ** [33.33%]
Spring Cancel (6/1-6/15) [ 2 ] ** [7.41%]
Total Votes: 27
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Undertakerson
post Mar 31 2011, 05:13 PM
Post #1




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I know there's some excellent discussion going on in the general meteo world - I just know many on here can lend some excellent insight. (have fun)

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Apr 1 2011, 04:05 AM
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 31 2011, 08:33 PM
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We are gonna get some pretty warm temps ahead of the next storm/fropa , the euro and gfs agree on the warm temps..



Attached Image


This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Mar 31 2011, 08:38 PM


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western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.8"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"
2014 - 2015: 0.3"
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LoveNYCSnow
post Mar 31 2011, 09:31 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 31 2011, 09:33 PM) *
We are gonna get some pretty warm temps ahead of the next storm/fropa , the euro and gfs agree on the warm temps..

Attached Image


doesn't look that warm by you but def warm for the MA


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2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 31 2011, 10:24 PM
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Yea im hoping those warmer temps make it farher north..Nothing worse then upper30s-low 40s with rain..Yesterday's euro brought temps up to 60 from kbgm to kalb, so all hope is not lost yet lol


--------------------
western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.8"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"
2014 - 2015: 0.3"
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Undertakerson
post Apr 1 2011, 03:21 AM
Post #5




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Well, I got busy right after making this poll last night so I didn't even vote then. But I'll tell you that I don't expect much in the way of sustained warm up until May (and that I say, very sadly - I'm ready to ride) First week probably for my region, but I voted for my B-day time frame for NE.

Sure, we'll get some warmth like early next week. But even here temps max at 60+ for one day only and then we go backwards again.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?z...Z057&zflg=1

If you go to AH's Model and Data Weather Page, you can see that the 850 T Anomolys (GFS) don't look to get and stay in the pretty green H's for very long.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

So while we'll warm up, relatively - this poll asks for predictions on 3 or more 70F days in a row. That may take a good bit, especially from 40N and above.
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Undertakerson
post Apr 1 2011, 04:10 AM
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Man i messed up when I posted this - I had and then lost the part where I said you should vote on when we'll get 3 days running of 70+

My apologies to all, especially those who already voted. sad.gif
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Fire/Rescue
post Apr 1 2011, 11:11 AM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 31 2011, 09:33 PM) *
We are gonna get some pretty warm temps ahead of the next storm/fropa , the euro and gfs agree on the warm temps..

Attached Image

Wow....look at all those pretty Oranges and Reds thruout the Mid-Atlantic (bring it on baby) tongue.gif
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psu1313
post Apr 1 2011, 04:18 PM
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I think it's pretty safe to assume that at least in the Southern Mid-Atlantic we're about to get into warmer pattern where cold air continues to try to make inroads but we're progressively warming. North of I-80 though could be an issue with the snowpack still on the ground in the north combined with the patterns we've found ourselves in all winter. Give me spring now for VA and MD, PA and NJ and southern NY waiting a few weeks and north of that....well mid may?
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bingobobbo
post Apr 1 2011, 06:20 PM
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We have not reached 60 degrees here in Binghamton since last Nov. 23; 59 has been our best so far in '11 (on March 18). This is already our latest debut of the 60s since 2001 (April 9).


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There is a fine line between OTS and GLC!
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gulfofslides
post Apr 2 2011, 07:03 AM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Apr 1 2011, 06:20 PM) *
We have not reached 60 degrees here in Binghamton since last Nov. 23; 59 has been our best so far in '11 (on March 18). This is already our latest debut of the 60s since 2001 (April 9).

May should turn out colder than normal north of I-80. April will be near normal maybe slightly below
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bingobobbo
post Apr 2 2011, 03:34 PM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Apr 2 2011, 08:03 AM) *
May should turn out colder than normal north of I-80. April will be near normal maybe slightly below


This spring is beginning to look like 2003 for us in upstate New York (the last year all three spring months were colder than average. If we hadn't reached 80 degrees on April 15 that year, we would have had to wait until June 23 for our first 80-plus day!

As for this year, we'll have to reach 60 degrees by April 9 to equal the latest in a calendar year (in the last 45 years) we've had our first 60-plus day.


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There is a fine line between OTS and GLC!
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NYCSuburbs
post Apr 4 2011, 09:18 PM
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For the southern and potentially central Mid Atlantic, a 3+ day stretch of 70+ degrees may vey well happen this weekend into early next week. For the northern Mid Atlantic and the rest of the Northeast, it'll take some time.


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