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> April 25-28th Plains/MW/GL/OV Historic Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 See Text - Forecasts & OBS
The Snowman
post Apr 19 2011, 05:49 PM
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Here we go again...
Midwest and Great Lakes under the gun.
ORD forecast to reach 81 on the 25th.
QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011 AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
WOULD IMPLY THE EVOLUTION OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WESTERN STATES
TROUGH BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. FROM DAY 5/SATURDAY INTO DAYS 6/7
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN PLAINS /NEAR AND EAST OF A
DRYLINE/...TO PERHAPS THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY ALONG A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL EACH DAY.
BUT AGAIN...SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY/CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED IN THAT
TIME FRAME.


This post has been edited by The Snowman: Apr 28 2011, 04:30 PM
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WolfSpider
post Apr 19 2011, 06:01 PM
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Maybe the storms will be up here this time.

This post has been edited by WolfSpider: Apr 19 2011, 06:01 PM


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ChiWxWatcher
post Apr 19 2011, 06:39 PM
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This does look possible-but it is about a week away. Defintely is something to watch though.


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Karl
post Apr 19 2011, 07:37 PM
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DVN is on board with the storm possibilities:

QUOTE
A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. IN THIS CASE THE MAJOR CYCLONE TRACKS TO THE WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING WELL TO OUR NORTH PUTTING THE REGION IN THE VOLATILE WARM SECTOR. WILL BE USING THE MORE RELIABLE ECM MODEL FOR THIS FORECAST.


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Palatine-Chicago
post Apr 19 2011, 07:52 PM
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QUOTE(ChiWxWatcher @ Apr 19 2011, 04:39 PM) *
This does look possible-but it is about a week away. Defintely is something to watch though.



Not only possible but LIKELY. The storm tracks edge north this time of year and end up in Canada by July. Now is as good as time as any for the LOW's to begin tracking further north.
-pc
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ChiWxWatcher
post Apr 19 2011, 08:52 PM
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While this is looking likely, anything could change...something to look at....


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wsushox1
post Apr 19 2011, 09:15 PM
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QUOTE(Palatine-Chicago @ Apr 19 2011, 07:52 PM) *
Not only possible but LIKELY. The storm tracks edge north this time of year and end up in Canada by July. Now is as good as time as any for the LOW's to begin tracking further north.
-pc


LOL

They have been unusually north all season.


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StormChaser4Life
post Apr 19 2011, 09:48 PM
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QUOTE(ChiWxWatcher @ Apr 19 2011, 08:52 PM) *
While this is looking likely, anything could change...something to look at....


there is remarkable agreement among the models right now on a strong storm system. It is going to happen. but it is impossible to hammer out the details of what type of severe weather event will unfold this far out. but there def will be an outbreak with this. but the magnitude is yet to be determined. this def has a lot of potential to be deadly
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Snow____
post Apr 19 2011, 09:59 PM
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QUOTE(Palatine-Chicago @ Apr 19 2011, 08:52 PM) *
Not only possible but LIKELY. The storm tracks edge north this time of year and end up in Canada by July. Now is as good as time as any for the LOW's to begin tracking further north.
-pc

How can you say severe weather is likely a week away.


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StormChaser4Life
post Apr 19 2011, 11:08 PM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Apr 19 2011, 09:59 PM) *
How can you say severe weather is likely a week away.


because there is good agreement among the models on a potent storm system. we have a strong sfc low, large warm sector, good upper level dynamics (neg tilt trough), warm and very moist air mass in place. it is pretty obvious severe weather will occur with this system. AFD's and many forecasters already mentioning it man...
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SEMIweather
post Apr 19 2011, 11:46 PM
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Monday already looks very fun for some people. I am selfishly hoping the system slows down a little bit compared to what the models are currently showing. smile.gif


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StormChaser4Life
post Apr 19 2011, 11:56 PM
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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Apr 19 2011, 11:46 PM) *
Monday already looks very fun for some people. I am selfishly hoping the system slows down a little bit compared to what the models are currently showing. smile.gif


i find it so sick and twisted that we are hoping for more extreme systems. lol. but secretly i love it. lets just hope the tornadoes avoid populated areas tongue.gif
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SEMIweather
post Apr 20 2011, 12:02 AM
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QUOTE(StormChaser4Life @ Apr 19 2011, 10:56 PM) *
i find it so sick and twisted that we are hoping for more extreme systems. lol. but secretly i love it. lets just hope the tornadoes avoid populated areas tongue.gif


We can't control the weather so I have no problem hoping...the weather is gonna do what it wants to. But I agree...the best tornado is one that stays in an open field. Don't like to see houses damaged/destroyed.


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StormChaser4Life
post Apr 20 2011, 12:10 AM
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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Apr 20 2011, 12:02 AM) *
We can't control the weather so I have no problem hoping...the weather is gonna do what it wants to. But I agree...the best tornado is one that stays in an open field. Don't like to see houses damaged/destroyed.


good point. mother nature does what she wants and she is pretty angry lately. this la nina yr is def enhancing the clashing of air masses this yr. just sucks that tornado alley has kinda shifted east this yr due to the extreme dry conditions farther west. it would be better to have tornado outbreaks in open areas with little population
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SEMIweather
post Apr 20 2011, 12:38 AM
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FWIW...a pro met on American just started a threat for approximately these dates and also stated the potential for a major outbreak around this time.


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StormChaser4Life
post Apr 20 2011, 12:52 AM
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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Apr 20 2011, 12:38 AM) *
FWIW...a pro met on American just started a threat for approximately these dates and also stated the potential for a major outbreak around this time.


where is this thread?
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TJ Schulte
post Apr 20 2011, 04:08 AM
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QUOTE(StormChaser4Life @ Apr 20 2011, 12:52 AM) *
where is this thread?


Not on this site and if that surface map at the top of the page pans out then this system will quite possibly the most devastating by far we've seen all year


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TJ Schulte
post Apr 20 2011, 04:25 AM
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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Apr 20 2011, 12:38 AM) *
FWIW...a pro met on American just started a threat for approximately these dates and also stated the potential for a major outbreak around this time.


Threw up a little tidbit about this one and the possible crazy May across the Great Lakes. Gonna be a reall interesting next few months that's for sure. Hopefully this year I don't almost get killed again night chasing an EF-4 lol


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jdrenken
post Apr 20 2011, 06:12 AM
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Same system?

QUOTE
Larry Cosgrove
I am looking at the new (12z Tues Apr 19) GFS data. When it comes to severe weather events, forget "isolated" or "moderate" for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Use "abusive" instead...yikes!
18 hours ago


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The Snowman
post Apr 20 2011, 06:37 AM
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SPC 4-8 Day Outlook
QUOTE
WITH LIKELY AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN VIA THE
EVOLUTION OF A PROMINENT WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH BY DAYS
5-6 SUNDAY/MONDAY...PRELIMINARY THINKING IS THAT A MORE
WIDESPREAD/MULTI-ROUND SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE THROUGH DAYS 6-8
MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST/MS RIVER VALLEY. BUT...SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY IS
STILL QUITE LIMITED IN THIS TIME FRAME.


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2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


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