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> Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development 2011, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Fronts, Waves, LPs
Phased Vort
post Apr 26 2011, 06:47 PM
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2011 Gulf Of Mexico Development Discussion Thread

The Map below shows the geographical area allowed for discussion in this thread.


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In here we will discussion and post about possible development of tropical systems prior to their classification to INVEST status by the NHC.

Origin/Reason for development:

African Waves aka Eastern Waves
Low Pressure areas
Frontal Boundaries

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MAC292OH10
post May 24 2011, 02:08 PM
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weak GOM system...

12Z ECMWF @192hr

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Phased Vort
post May 25 2011, 07:10 PM
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QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ May 24 2011, 02:08 PM) *
weak GOM system...

12Z ECMWF @192hr

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Was looking into different areas, and I gotta agree that the ECMWF is hitting at something trying to at leat entertain us with possible formation somwhere over the NW Carribbean and into the SE GOMEX in 7 days or so, which would be into early June, which would be climatologicaly reasonable.

00Z AND 12Z runs from May 25th, continue to give that possibility chances.


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hckyplayer8
post May 25 2011, 11:19 PM
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Makes sense to me. With the massive Atlantic ridge extending all the way back into the MSRV. Should be a fairly healthy environment pending we get a decent wave to build off of.


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Phased Vort
post Jun 6 2011, 06:58 PM
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NW Caribbean or the central to western part of the GOMEX should be the next areas where we can see more tropical action, worthy of invest classification and observation, 10 to 12 days down the road, as conditions get decent again for another push at tropical cyclone formation.


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goblue96
post Jun 10 2011, 01:13 PM
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I've talked about this in my "education" thread. It's been around in a variety of forms and locations for most of the week (mainly in the H300-384 time frame).







One of the things that I've noticed is landfall always seems to be around H348. A couple days ago, it was scheduled to make landfall on the 23rd. Two days later, landfall has been pushed back to the 25th.

This post has been edited by goblue96: Jun 10 2011, 01:18 PM


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MAC292OH10
post Jun 10 2011, 06:00 PM
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QUOTE(goblue96 @ Jun 10 2011, 02:13 PM) *
I've talked about this in my "education" thread. It's been around in a variety of forms and locations for most of the week (mainly in the H300-384 time frame).







One of the things that I've noticed is landfall always seems to be around H348. A couple days ago, it was scheduled to make landfall on the 23rd. Two days later, landfall has been pushed back to the 25th.


much healthier looking then past runs....no worries, GFS tends to "post-pone" tropical systems it shows on the very end of the long range(did the same with 94L, and many other systems in past seasons)...looking at some of the dynamical MJO phase forecasts some models show it retro-grading back into either phases 3,2 or even 1 or possibly NULL...give it about 5 days to sort out MJO phase and the ECMWF will start to come into range and we'll hopefully have a tad bit clearer picture...

NCPE: National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Ensemble Global Forecast System
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NCPB: National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Bias-Corrected Ensemble Global Forecast
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UKME: United Kingdom Meteorology Office - Ensemble System
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UKMA: United Kingdom Meteorology Office - Operational Control Run
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ECMF: European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts - Ensemble System
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ECMM: European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts - Ensemble System (anomalies based on lead dependent model climatology)
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QUOTE
TC formation vs MJO Phase

JUNE
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JULY
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This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 10 2011, 06:07 PM
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goblue96
post Jun 10 2011, 06:12 PM
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18z had the storm basically riding the Texas coast and weaker 'cause the center of circulation was inland. It's flopping the thing all over the place from run to run. I'm sure the 0z will show something completely different


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MAC292OH10
post Jun 11 2011, 07:06 PM
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its back...


Attached Image


text extraction from just south of Mobile,AL...(38mph @10m/54mph @850mb height level)

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This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 11 2011, 07:07 PM
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Phased Vort
post Jun 11 2011, 07:36 PM
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QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ Jun 11 2011, 07:06 PM) *
its back...


Attached Image


text extraction from just south of Mobile,AL...(38mph @10m/54mph @850mb height level)

Attached Image



GFS is insisting on indicating that the GOMEX will be active in 15 days or so.


This one originates on the SW and S GOMEX area.

We should start observing how conditions are in and around the GOMEX as a whole, especially the southern GOMEX.


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jdrenken
post Jun 11 2011, 08:45 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jun 11 2011, 07:36 PM) *
GFS is insisting on indicating that the GOMEX will be active in 15 days or so.
This one originates on the SW and S GOMEX area.

We should start observing how conditions are in and around the GOMEX as a whole, especially the southern GOMEX.


The NCEP/CMC comparison shows that it could either way at this point with a GOM or Caribbean system.



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Phased Vort
post Jun 11 2011, 09:34 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jun 11 2011, 08:45 PM) *
The NCEP/CMC comparison shows that it could either way at this point with a GOM or Caribbean system.




Indeed.

The NCEP rooted models are more focused on the GOMEX, while the CMC ones do suggest Caribbean origination.

Good post, Joe.


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goblue96
post Jun 11 2011, 09:38 PM
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QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ Jun 11 2011, 08:06 PM) *
its back...


Attached Image


text extraction from just south of Mobile,AL...(38mph @10m/54mph @850mb height level)

Attached Image


The GFS has loved putting a storm making landfall in the H372-384 window. Landfall was supposed on 24th in the middle of the week. Now, it's pushed back to the 27th.

On twisterdata.com (sorry, can't figure how to post images from that site):

18z 6/08: System makes landfall around Mississippi at H384 (6/24). Top winds (25mph) around Mobile
18z 6/09: System twirling around Mexico/Texas border
18z 6/10: System twirling around central Mexico
18z 6/11: System makes landfall around Mississippi at H384 (6/27). Top winds (35mph) around Mobile



This post has been edited by goblue96: Jun 11 2011, 10:09 PM


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goblue96
post Jun 13 2011, 06:38 PM
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The system is back again tonight in the 18z. Goes inland around New Orleans and then slides north to northeast. Always appears in the 18z though never in any other run. Being that it's always the 18z makes me want to discredit it but this is the 3rd time in seven days it's appeared in the 18z.


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Phased Vort
post Jun 13 2011, 08:17 PM
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QUOTE(goblue96 @ Jun 13 2011, 06:38 PM) *
The system is back again tonight in the 18z. Goes inland around New Orleans and then slides north to northeast. Always appears in the 18z though never in any other run. Being that it's always the 18z makes me want to discredit it but this is the 3rd time in seven days it's appeared in the 18z.


Itīs there on the 00Z, 12Z and 18Z.

On the 00Z and 12Z itīs down over the southern GOMEXīs Bay of Campeche.


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Phased Vort
post Jun 13 2011, 08:23 PM
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Given past experience, no one should be surprised if we get an invest in the southern/ southwestern GOMEX 10 to 12 days from now, which may become the first tropical cyclone of the 2011 Atlantic season.


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goblue96
post Jun 13 2011, 08:34 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jun 13 2011, 09:17 PM) *
Itīs there on the 00Z, 12Z and 18Z.

On the 00Z and 12Z itīs down over the southern GOMEXīs Bay of Campeche.


Agreed. The 00Z and 12Z, it never moves north to make landfall in the US. It just kind of drifts westward in Mexico.

Only on the 18Z runs, I've noticed, does the system move north and make landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast. It made the turn north on the 18Z runs on the 8th, the 11st, and again today. On the 9th, 10th, and 12th, the system just drifts into Mexico like the 00Z and 12Z runs from today shows.

This post has been edited by goblue96: Jun 13 2011, 08:39 PM


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First Day above 90:

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goblue96
post Jun 14 2011, 07:12 AM
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It's still there on both 00Z and 06Z runs. 00Z run - it makes landfall around the same area as it did during the 18Z run. 06Z run - it makes landfall further west around the TX/LA border and then pushes north/northeast through the CONUS.


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First Day above 65: April 10

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First Day above 85: May 12

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hurricanehunter
post Jun 14 2011, 10:00 AM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jun 13 2011, 09:23 PM) *
Given past experience, no one should be surprised if we get an invest in the southern/ southwestern GOMEX 10 to 12 days from now, which may become the first tropical cyclone of the 2011 Atlantic season.


That equates to what Larry Cosgrove is thinking. He expects something might develop around the 27th of the month.
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Phased Vort
post Jun 14 2011, 10:48 AM
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QUOTE(goblue96 @ Jun 14 2011, 07:12 AM) *
It's still there on both 00Z and 06Z runs. 00Z run - it makes landfall around the same area as it did during the 18Z run. 06Z run - it makes landfall further west around the TX/LA border and then pushes north/northeast through the CONUS.



Yes.


Something should arise from this GFS non-stop suggestion.


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