Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development 2011, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Fronts, Waves, LPs Options

[Phased Vort]

That equates to what Larry Cosgrove is thinking. He expects something might develop around the 27th of the month.

Yea. I have been following the GFS for about 5 years, and during tropical season, when it shows something in the long range over the tropical Atlantic repeadtly, as it has been doing with this possible invest, we do get development of some kind a good 70% of the time, and given itīs over the southern GOMEX, and as it would be as well over the central and western Caribbean, climatology do helps, as those are the best locations, meaning more conducive for tropical cyclone development this time of the year.

[goblue96]

It looks like a strong tropical depression at best. Not a lot of wind but a lot of rain.

Vort - you mean the GFS doesn't go off it's rocker around 6-9 days out and completely lose storms like it does in the winter?

[Phased Vort]

It looks like a strong tropical depression at best. Not a lot of wind but a lot of rain.

Vort - you mean the GFS doesn't go off it's rocker around 6-9 days out and completely lose storms like it does in the winter?

Even if it looses, the storm generally ends up occuring in some shape or form.

[MAC292OH10]

Global Tropical Hazards Assessment Discussion

Last Updated: 06.14.11 Valid: 06.15.11 - 06.28.11

The most coherent tropical variability during the past week remains atmospheric Kelvin wave activity. Observations indicate two separate Kelvin waves are impacting the tropical convection. One resulted in enhanced rainfall across parts of Africa during the past week and another is entering the central Pacific and beginning to excite convection across the Pacific ITCZ. The MJO remains weak, although there are some impacts especially across parts of the eastern hemisphere. ENSO neutral conditions have officially been declared as SSTs no longer meet La Nina criteria. La Nina features do remain in some atmospheric variables, however, especially in upper-level winds across the central Pacific. Enhanced rainfall was evident during the past week stretching from the Arabian Sea across India, parts of Southeast Asia to east of the Philippines. Drier-than-average conditions continued across Mexico and the southern CONUS. The heavy rainfall across the Caribbean over the last 1-2 weeks ended early in the week.

During Week-1, the combination of a weak MJO enhanced convective phase, an atmospheric Kelvin wave and forecast above-normal Indian-Asian monsoon activity favor enhanced chances for above-average rainfall stretching from India to the western Pacific in a northwest-southeast orientation. Drier than average conditions are most likely south of this area and is supported by forecast model guidance. A few disturbances near the Philippines currently and generally weak vertical wind shear favor tropical cyclogenesis for both the South China Sea and far western Pacific. during the period. Forecast model guidance favors drier-than average conditions to continue across Mexico as the North American monsoon system is late in intensifying. The Caribbean is also forecast to see beneficial drier than average conditions during the period. An atmospheric Kelvin wave entering the central Pacific is expected to enhance the eastern Pacific ITCZ late this week into early next week and this along with below-average vertical wind shear favors potential development.

As we move into Week-2, an active Indian monsoon favors a continuation of enhanced rainfall for India and the Bay of Bengal. Forecast model guidance also continues to indicate enhance rainfall near the Philippines. The potential for tropical storm development also remains elevated near the Philippine islands. Model forecast guidance suggests a change across the southern areas of the North American monsoon region and northern Central America during the period to increased chances for above-average rainfall. Further tropical development is possible into Week-2 across the eastern Pacific basin. There is also some threat for potential tropical development in the Bay of Campeche during the period. Model guidance indicates a disturbance moving northward toward the Gulf coast potentially providing beneficial rainfall drought parched areas of the souther U.S.. The potential at the current time for this is low, however.

[goblue96]

Nice find, MAC. Find it interesting that Global Tropical Hazards Assessment organization would have it's US base in Albany, NY. One of the last places in the US that has deal with tropical weather.

It's like putting the winter weather center in Phoenix, AZ.

[MAC292OH10]

06Z GFS had an INSANE! amount of precip for NOLA airport, 29" in a 60hr period...

[goblue96]

Odds of that happening....somewhere near zero.

[MAC292OH10]

Odds of that happening....somewhere near zero.

while that is true,lol...at this point the odds of the event happening are rather low in general without support from other global models...

if this event does materialize, whether or not it becomes a named system, somebody along the central gulf coast is in for one heck of a slug of deep tropical moisture/heavy rainfall...

This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 15 2011, 11:07 AM

[goblue96]

12Z runs it through Mobile, AL then the Florida Panhandle before cutting Georgia and back into the Atlantic.

It looks like the window for the slug of moisture is setting up to be New Orleans to Tallahassee. So, it's a small window.

This post has been edited by goblue96: Jun 15 2011, 11:59 AM

[alfoman]

Wow first time posting in many months! Time to get into hurricane mode! Check out this tropical wave that will enter the Atlantic in a few days!

[goblue96]

How long will that take to cross the ocean, if it stays together of course?

[east coast storm]

How long will that take to cross the ocean, if it stays together of course?

I think you would agree, its too early in the season to worry about that
cloud area moving across the Atlantic.

[goblue96]

I think you would agree, its too early in the season to worry about that
cloud area moving across the Atlantic.

I do. I'm just trying to learn about the "long-range" forecasting of hurricanes.

[east coast storm]

I do. I'm just trying to learn about the "long-range" forecasting of hurricanes.

The Cape Verde season really starts around August, going through September
where TS formation is sometimes off the coast of Africa near those Islands.
Of more interest would be the week after next, the week of the 27th where
the GFS is still indicating possible tropical development in the Gulf.

[goblue96]

The Cape Verde season really starts around August, going through September
where TS formation is sometimes off the coast of Africa near those Islands.
Of more interest would be the week after next, the week of the 27th where
the GFS is still indicating possible tropical development in the Gulf.

That development kinda fell apart in the 00Z and 6Z runs. Became more just a broad area of thunderstorms with no real center of circulation.

[east coast storm]

That development kinda fell apart in the 00Z and 6Z runs. Became more just a broad area of thunderstorms with no real center of circulation.

Todays GFS 6Z run does not even show a low in the gulf anymore, but does show
some interesting developments off the SE coast in the next 7 to 10 days.

[jdrenken]

Todays GFS 6Z run does not even show a low in the gulf anymore, but does show
some interesting developments off the SE coast in the next 7 to 10 days.

The continued hyping of each blob of moisture off the SE coast is getting old. Not to mention this thread is the GOM.

[east coast storm]

The continued hyping of each blob of moisture off the SE coast is getting old. Not to mention this thread is the GOM.

You are right. There is no sense in speculating about storm formation off the SE
coast unless it actually happens or is going to happen. Sorry to go OT.

[MAC292OH10]

6/17 00Z



This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 17 2011, 02:12 PM

[goblue96]

Are those images showing different timeframes? If they are showing the same time frame, what time frame are they showing?