Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development 2011, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Fronts, Waves, LPs Options

[MAC292OH10]

Are those images showing different timeframes? If they are showing the same time frame, what time frame are they showing?

6/17 00Z ECMWF/FIM/FIMy/GFS/NOGAPS/UKMET @144hrs

[goblue96]

6/17 00Z ECMWF/FIM/FIMy/GFS/NOGAPS/UKMET @144hrs

I remember the FIM from the winter...let's take the most extreme solution and present it as the forecast.

[Phased Vort]

Both of the latest ECMWF runs, have started to hint at possible invest formation in the Bay of Campeche around June 27th/28th, 2011.

[MAC292OH10]

12Z ECMWF @240hr

[east coast storm]

12Z ECMWF @240hr

Todays 6Z GFS run shows that low coming out of the GOM the week after next, moving
NE to the MA states and just stalling out giving the MA and NE a rainy 4th of July
weekend.

[MAC292OH10]

12Z ECMWF shows the weak campeche low once again...

@216hr

[east coast storm]

12Z ECMWF shows the weak campeche low once again...

@216hr

And the 18Z GFS shows a weak 1008 low reaching south Texas around the
July 4 timeframe.

[east coast storm]

I remember the FIM from the winter...let's take the most extreme solution and present it as the forecast.

The 12Z GFS now has a low coming out of the the GOMEX and moving NNE up the
eastern seaboard as an inland apps runner the week of July 4.

[MAC292OH10]

Global Tropical Hazards Assessment Discussion
Last Updated: 06.21.11 Valid: 06.22.11 - 07.05.11
The MJO remained quite weak over the past seven days and the main areas of tropical forcing were primarily related to an enhanced southern Asia monsoon circulation and the continuation of atmospheric Kelvin wave activity. An anomalous flow from the equatorial Indian Ocean across India to the far western Pacific resulted in an above-average enhanced rainfall area oriented northwest to southeast from India to the western Pacific. Drier-than-average conditions continued across the equatorial Indian Ocean. Enhanced convection intensified across the eastern Pacific and Central America during the past week while very dry conditions continued across central Mexico and the southern CONUS. The North American monsoon rainfall across Mexico is very late to start this year. With respect to tropical cyclone activity, an atmospheric Kelvin wave contributed to the development of Tropical cyclone Beatriz in the eastern Pacific and this storm is currently threatening the Mexican coast with very strong winds and heavy rainfall. The remnants of Tropical storm 6W also developed just east of the Philippines crossed the islands and is now currently located in the South China Sea.

Over the next week, the anomalous monsoon flow across southern Asia is forecast to shift further to the north and result in suppressed rainfall across the southern half of India, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Maritime continent. A monsoon depression is forecast to move westward across north-central India and this is forecast to result in areas of heavy rainfall early in the period in this part of India. Tropical systems, above-normal SSTs and anomalous low-level convergence favor enhanced rainfall across the western Pacific, northern Philippines, South China Sea. A tropical cyclone expected to develop just prior to the start of the period or just thereafter is forecast to track towards Korea and Japan and result in areas of heavy rainfall in this region. Recent observations indicate that the monsoon across central Mexico may strengthen and this favors enhanced rainfall across southern Mexico and with a southwesterly flow of tropical moisture enhanced rainfall is also forecast across the western Gulf of Mexico to just along the U.S. Gulf Coast and may contribute to some drought relief. Active convection and an atmospheric Kelvin wave may produce favorable conditions for tropical development across the eastern Pacific, but at the current time the threat for this is considered low and this was not highlighted on the outlook. An additional potential threat, although confidence is low, is for tropical development across the Bay of Campeche during the period.

During Week-2, the northward migration of the monsoon across Mexico is the most important feature as these areas are well overdue for enhanced rainfall. In addition, a frontal boundary oriented across the Gulf of Mexico or southern Gulf Coast or flow ahead of this frontal boundary favors enhanced rainfall and provide considerable drought relief to Florida and potentially the eastern Gulf Coast during the period. Considerable mixed signals are present across much of the Eastern Hemisphere during Week-2, so no areas are highlighted from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific. An atmospheric Kelvin wave may excite convection across portions of Africa during this period and enhance rainfall but uncertainty is high at the current time.

[MAC292OH10]

getting some decent model agreement for the time being....

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
157 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

VALID 12Z SAT JUN 25 2011 - 12Z WED JUN 29 2011

THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD USED A NEARLY EVEN BLEND OF THE
06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET TO REPRESENT CONSENSUS WITH THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT OF THE EAST. USED A 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
COMPROMISE THEREAFTER TO ACCOUNT FOR ISSUES NEAR THE WEST COAST
AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/5 OF THE 00Z
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS A POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVE LOW
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A SOLUTION THE 12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN
HINTED AT YESTERDAY. THE 17Z COORDINATION CALL WITH THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER LED TO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THE DEPICTION OF
THIS FEATURE.

D6


D7

12Z

ECMWF @144hr


CMC @144hr


NOGAPS @168hr


GFS
@159hr 40KT @999mb


@168hr


12Z GFS text extract
Grncyn Blk52 Supplementary Aviation Weather Reporting Station ,LA,United States


This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 22 2011, 02:24 PM

[rainstorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...&hour=168hr

looks like it has a decent chance since high pressure is building north of it

[NYCSuburbs]

The 18z GFS also has a clear signal for a GOM tropical cyclone by its hour 144-180 range, almost has an Alex 2010-like look to it.

[Superstorm93]

18z:

[kab2791]

Ironically, it's sort of Alex-like (location/timing), though that depends on the model. Euro/CMC (south) vs GFS (north).

This post has been edited by kab2791: Jun 22 2011, 06:44 PM

[albanyweather]

The good ol' GGEM back to its old tricks again Boy thats a fun model.

Anyway if this does develop we should start to see some life by the end of this weekend I believe.



This post has been edited by albanyweather: Jun 23 2011, 09:03 AM

[alfoman]

00z GEM at hour 156

[MAC292OH10]

00Z @144hr

[MAC292OH10]

as seen in the cyclo-genesis tracking .GIF above, some models do show this becoming invest or close to invest criteria while in the Caribbean...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
227 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

VALID 12Z SUN JUN 26 2011 - 12Z THU JUN 30 2011

AT LOWER LATITUDES...THE 12Z CANADIAN SHIFTED SOUTH TOWARDS THE REMAINDER
OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH LOW PRESSURE FCST TO TRACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK. THE 17Z NHC/HPC
COORDINATION CALL LED TO EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEMS
TRACK CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST NEXT THURSDAY.

D5


D6



D7

---
12Z models

NAM @69hr



GFS @141hr 39KTs@996MB


NOGAPS @168hr


CMC @144hr


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This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 23 2011, 01:46 PM

[MAC292OH10]

this appears to be the wave/vort the models are picking up on...







---

tons of SAL/Dry air & wind shear is way to high for development ATTM, but should become more favorable later in the period,very very similar to alex ie:formation within ati-cyclone & regressing/weakening TUTT...








TCHP


SST


MJO (6/23 00Z GFS week 1)


TCFP

[MAC292OH10]