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> Caribbean Tropical Development 2011, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Waves and LPs
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post Jun 3 2011, 01:25 PM
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Tremendous low level turning associated with a developing broad low level circulation over the central Caribbean Sea. Convection is hard to develop exactly over the circulation due to some dry air entrainment, but regardless development should come easier with time as wind shear dies down as an upper level anticyclone tries to move over the low. Some significant flooding problems will continue for Hispaniola and neighboring islands as a strong upper level flow continues from the southwest.
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jdrenken
post Jun 3 2011, 01:44 PM
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Please remember to post in the 94L thread for this system now.


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Phased Vort
post Jun 6 2011, 06:57 PM
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NW Caribbean or the central to western part of the GOMEX should be the next areas where we can see more tropical action, worthy of invest classification and observation, 10 to 12 days down the road, as conditions get decent again for another push at tropical cyclone formation.


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jdrenken
post Jun 11 2011, 08:46 PM
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The NCEP/CMC comparison shows that it could either way at this point with a GOM or Caribbean system.



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alfoman
post Jun 16 2011, 10:49 PM
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Track of the weak tropical system moving though the Caribbean next week according to the 18z gfs.


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jdrenken
post Jun 17 2011, 11:39 AM
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QUOTE(alfoman @ Jun 16 2011, 10:49 PM) *
Track of the weak tropical system moving though the Caribbean next week according to the 18z gfs.


Attached Image


That would make my friends in TX very happy!


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MAC292OH10
post Jun 17 2011, 01:57 PM
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QUOTE(alfoman @ Jun 16 2011, 11:49 PM) *
Track of the weak tropical system moving though the Caribbean next week according to the 18z gfs.


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i dont believe that is the actual SLP....need to follow the TPW and wave axis and mid level vort....when looking at he GFS also shows EPAC energy and moisture getting involved...

current


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12Z GFS


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This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 17 2011, 02:05 PM
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east coast storm
post Jun 18 2011, 08:12 AM
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QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ Jun 17 2011, 02:57 PM) *
i dont believe that is the actual SLP....need to follow the TPW and wave axis and mid level vort....when looking at he GFS also shows EPAC energy and moisture getting involved...

current


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12Z GFS


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On this mornings satellite photo as you know, there is a large, almost comma shaped cloud
area in the water east of Honduras. I'm sure that area will be watched.
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jdrenken
post Jul 1 2011, 07:06 AM
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Frank Strait is getting interested...




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tatertim
post Jul 2 2011, 03:20 PM
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New lemon drop...
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and the CMC is advertising this coming from the same area in 7 days...
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CMC

Doesn't seem too likely, but it's something to watch!


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MAC292OH10
post Jul 9 2011, 09:36 PM
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GFS has been sniffing at another Carribbean disturbance...

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NCEP GFSE MJO phase diagram
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ECMWF EPS MJO phase diagram
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This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jul 9 2011, 09:47 PM
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MAC292OH10
post Jul 10 2011, 03:42 PM
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12Z GFS...similar to Arlene rather then Alex as yesterdays 18Z showed...

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Phased Vort
post Jul 12 2011, 06:16 PM
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The GFS continues to want to slam southern central America with a tropical cyclone.


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Phased Vort
post Jul 13 2011, 04:56 PM
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There may be development near Panama on the Caribbean side. That possible entity could develop and actually survive a possible trip across central America into the Pacific.


We should watch that area for the next 5 days or so, as there's continued and cloudiness in the region, especially with the MJO pulse lift being favorable for the next days.


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MAC292OH10
post Jul 14 2011, 06:28 PM
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meandering TUTT low(centered just east of the yucatan) interacting with monsoon trough and tropical wave, if SLP spawns land interaction is nearly unavoidable, recent campehece low 97L did make invest so if this sustains convection it may also make invest before land interaction seals its fate, flooding potential for central America pretty high even more so in higher terrain...

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72hr
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18Z NAM

@48hr

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@84hr

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This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jul 14 2011, 06:30 PM
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jdrenken
post Jul 16 2011, 03:19 PM
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Something to watch...credit to Doorman.


Dry air in the way though...


However...the dry air has diminished greatly...


Shear...is looking good to the West of the islands.


Tendency


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jdrenken
post Jul 16 2011, 03:29 PM
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QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ Jul 14 2011, 06:28 PM) *
meandering TUTT low(centered just east of the yucatan) interacting with monsoon trough and tropical wave, if SLP spawns land interaction is nearly unavoidable, recent campehece low 97L did make invest so if this sustains convection it may also make invest before land interaction seals its fate, flooding potential for central America pretty high even more so in higher terrain...
--
18Z NAM

@48hr

Attached Image


@84hr

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A few other models are showing this to regain it's moxie in the EPAC.


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jdrenken
post Jul 16 2011, 03:43 PM
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A nice collage from Doorman...


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MAC292OH10
post Jul 28 2011, 01:16 PM
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NAMX and GFS show a weak system spawning in the SW Carribbean...

12Z NAMX @81hr
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12Z GFS

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MAC292OH10
post Jul 28 2011, 07:02 PM
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12Z globals

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