 Caribbean Tropical Development 2011, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Waves and LPs |
AccuWeather.com Forums > Weather Forums > Current Weather - United States > Current Tropical Season Weather  |
 Jun 3 2011, 01:25 PM
Post
#121
|
|
 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 5,610 Joined: 24-January 09 From: Harwich, MA Member No.: 17,084  |
Tremendous low level turning associated with a developing broad low level circulation over the central Caribbean Sea. Convection is hard to develop exactly over the circulation due to some dry air entrainment, but regardless development should come easier with time as wind shear dies down as an upper level anticyclone tries to move over the low. Some significant flooding problems will continue for Hispaniola and neighboring islands as a strong upper level flow continues from the southwest.
|
 |
 
|
|
Jun 3 2011, 01:44 PM
Post
#122
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,437 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
Please remember to post in the 94L thread for this system now.
-------------------- |
|
|
|
|
Jun 6 2011, 06:57 PM
Post
#123
|
|
 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 17,836 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
NW Caribbean or the central to western part of the GOMEX should be the next areas where we can see more tropical action, worthy of invest classification and observation, 10 to 12 days down the road, as conditions get decent again for another push at tropical cyclone formation.
-------------------- |
|
|
|
|
Jun 11 2011, 08:46 PM
Post
#124
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,437 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
The NCEP/CMC comparison shows that it could either way at this point with a GOM or Caribbean system.
-------------------- |
|
|
|
|
Jun 16 2011, 10:49 PM
Post
#125
|
||
|
Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 214 Joined: 6-September 09 From: Atlanta Member No.: 19,147 |
Track of the weak tropical system moving though the Caribbean next week according to the 18z gfs.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jun 17 2011, 11:39 AM
Post
#126
|
||
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,437 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
QUOTE(alfoman @ Jun 16 2011, 10:49 PM)  Track of the weak tropical system moving though the Caribbean next week according to the 18z gfs.
That would make my friends in TX very happy! -------------------- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jun 17 2011, 01:57 PM
Post
#127
|
|||||||
 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
QUOTE(alfoman @ Jun 16 2011, 11:49 PM) Track of the weak tropical system moving though the Caribbean next week according to the 18z gfs.
i dont believe that is the actual SLP....need to follow the TPW and wave axis and mid level vort....when looking at he GFS also shows EPAC energy and moisture getting involved... current
12Z GFS
This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 17 2011, 02:05 PM |
||||||
|
|
|
||||||
 Jun 18 2011, 08:12 AM
Post
#128
|
||||||
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,161 Joined: 20-May 10 From: Melbourne Fla Member No.: 22,816 |
QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ Jun 17 2011, 02:57 PM) i dont believe that is the actual SLP....need to follow the TPW and wave axis and mid level vort....when looking at he GFS also shows EPAC energy and moisture getting involved... current
12Z GFS
On this mornings satellite photo as you know, there is a large, almost comma shaped cloud area in the water east of Honduras. I'm sure that area will be watched. |
|||||
|
|
|
|||||
|
Jul 1 2011, 07:06 AM
Post
#129
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,437 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
Frank Strait is getting interested...
Attached image(s)
-------------------- |
|
|
|
|
Jul 2 2011, 03:20 PM
Post
#130
|
||
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 587 Joined: 9-January 09 From: (803) Member No.: 16,839 |
New lemon drop...
 and the CMC is advertising this coming from the same area in 7 days...
CMC Doesn't seem too likely, but it's something to watch! -------------------- "If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy." - U.S. President James Madison "Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box." -Italian Proverb |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jul 9 2011, 09:36 PM
Post
#131
|
||||
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
GFS has been sniffing at another Carribbean disturbance...
---    NCEP GFSE MJO phase diagram  ECMWF EPS MJO phase diagram 
This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jul 9 2011, 09:47 PM |
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
Jul 10 2011, 03:42 PM
Post
#132
|
|||
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
12Z GFS...similar to Arlene rather then Alex as yesterdays 18Z showed...
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
Jul 12 2011, 06:16 PM
Post
#133
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 17,836 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
The GFS continues to want to slam southern central America with a tropical cyclone.
-------------------- |
|
|
|
|
Jul 13 2011, 04:56 PM
Post
#134
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 17,836 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
There may be development near Panama on the Caribbean side. That possible entity could develop and actually survive a possible trip across central America into the Pacific.
We should watch that area for the next 5 days or so, as there's continued and cloudiness in the region, especially with the MJO pulse lift being favorable for the next days. -------------------- |
|
|
|
|
Jul 14 2011, 06:28 PM
Post
#135
|
|||||||
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
meandering TUTT low(centered just east of the yucatan) interacting with monsoon trough and tropical wave, if SLP spawns land interaction is nearly unavoidable, recent campehece low 97L did make invest so if this sustains convection it may also make invest before land interaction seals its fate, flooding potential for central America pretty high even more so in higher terrain...
72hr
--- 18Z NAM @48hr
@84hr
This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jul 14 2011, 06:30 PM |
||||||
|
|
|
||||||
|
Jul 16 2011, 03:19 PM
Post
#136
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,437 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
Something to watch...credit to Doorman.
 Dry air in the way though...  However...the dry air has diminished greatly...  Shear...is looking good to the West of the islands.  Tendency 
-------------------- |
|
|
|
|
Jul 16 2011, 03:29 PM
Post
#137
|
|||
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,437 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ Jul 14 2011, 06:28 PM) meandering TUTT low(centered just east of the yucatan) interacting with monsoon trough and tropical wave, if SLP spawns land interaction is nearly unavoidable, recent campehece low 97L did make invest so if this sustains convection it may also make invest before land interaction seals its fate, flooding potential for central America pretty high even more so in higher terrain... -- 18Z NAM @48hr
@84hr
A few other models are showing this to regain it's moxie in the EPAC. -------------------- |
||
|
|
|
||
|
Jul 16 2011, 03:43 PM
Post
#138
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,437 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
A nice collage from Doorman...
-------------------- |
|
|
|
|
Jul 28 2011, 01:16 PM
Post
#139
|
|||||
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
NAMX and GFS show a weak system spawning in the SW Carribbean...
12Z NAMX @81hr
12Z GFS
|
||||
|
|
|
||||
|
Jul 28 2011, 07:02 PM
Post
#140
|
||
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
12Z globals
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:
|
Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 19th June 2013 - 05:33 AM |