Caribbean Tropical Development 2011, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Waves and LPs Options

[east coast storm]

GFS has been hinting at something forming in two weeks... Probably picking up on the MJO being strong by then.

The 5/22 12Z GFS does show 2 lows, a developing low off the EC and a low
near Cuba in the June 6 -7 timeframe. It would be interesting to see what
happens.

[Superstorm93]

Not really interested in what the GFS is showing. For nearly every day for the past few weeks, it has been showing a tropical system 2 weeks out. Never closing in with time, but always getting father away.

[east coast storm]

Not really interested in what the GFS is showing. For nearly every day for the past few weeks, it has been showing a tropical system 2 weeks out. Never closing in with time, but always getting father away.

I agree, the 6Z run today showed a low moving west from the atlantic across
the Bahamas, coming close to the Fla coast. At 12Z the model loop showed
something different, with a developing low moving south over the ocen passing
west of Bermuda. The runs keep changing, but its still interesting to look at
the model loops.

[CanadianKeegan]

Not really interested in what the GFS is showing. For nearly every day for the past few weeks, it has been showing a tropical system 2 weeks out. Never closing in with time, but always getting father away.

yeah i guess. as soon as it switches to the low-res frames, it does different things. It's probably more climatologically-based or something.

[east coast storm]

yeah i guess. as soon as it switches to the low-res frames, it does different things. It's probably more climatologically-based or something.

I was looking at the 5/22 18Z GFS loop and it looks interesting for the June 4-6
timeframe as a developing tropical low will be coming north from the caribbean
moving across Cuba and up to the Bahamas on the 6th.

[weather-major94]

I was looking at the 5/22 18Z GFS loop and it looks interesting for the June 4-6
timeframe as a developing tropical low will be coming north from the caribbean
moving across Cuba and up to the Bahamas on the 6th.

im sorry, but why do we still use the GFS? its inaccurate, unreliable, and doesnt even agree on the models it predicts.

[Superstorm93]

im sorry, but why do we still use the GFS? its inaccurate, unreliable, and doesnt even agree on the models it predicts.

Its useless looking at anything over 180 hours...

Especially in the tropics.

The GFS is a good model if used correctly.

[weather-major94]

Its useless looking at anything over 180 hours...

Especially in the tropics.

The GFS is a good model if used correctly.

the key words are "if used correctly". but i guess that asking for definite answers is a bit futile, due to weather's volatility.

[east coast storm]

the key words are "if used correctly". but i guess that asking for definite answers is a bit futile, due to weather's volatility.

There is a nice comma shaped cloud area near Cuba with high clouds fanning up
to Fla. Could that develop into anything?

[Nicole]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. A SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL
BE ISSUED TUESDAY...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

[MAC292OH10]

Its useless looking at anything over 180 hours...

Especially in the tropics.

The GFS is a good model if used correctly.

typically i would agree with this, but the last 3 seasons it has sniffed the first true tropical invest before other global models(its in the archives if you dig, Carlos and others have seen it/participated in tracking), its mostly climo based(as may/june storms typically genesis in that area) ,main issue is the GFS does have a tendency to over/under estimate the timing/propagation of negative MJO anomalies causing continual post-poning of development...

i heard the dry air/SAL and wind shear and even ACE blah blah blah arguement all the way thru july last season and we seen how that worked out...once negative 200 HPA anomalies work there way back around into western hemisphere thru regions 7/8/1, and of course climo, there might be a chance we might get a wave or surface trof to detach from the ITCZ of the coast of Colombia...long shot? , probably , but unless it sub-tropical(EC/western Atlantic) our first deep tropical potential will likely form in the Caribbean...

[east coast storm]

typically i would agree with this, but the last 3 seasons it has sniffed the first true tropical invest before other global models(its in the archives if you dig, Carlos and others have seen it/participated in tracking), its mostly climo based(as may/june storms typically genesis in that area) ,main issue is the GFS does have a tendency to over/under estimate the timing/propagation of negative MJO anomalies causing continual post-poning of development...

i heard the dry air/SAL and wind shear and even ACE blah blah blah arguement all the way thru july last season and we seen how that worked out...once negative 200 HPA anomalies work there way back around into western hemisphere thru regions 7/8/1, and of course climo, there might be a chance we might get a wave or surface trof to detach from the ITCZ of the coast of Colombia...long shot? , probably , but unless it sub-tropical(EC/western Atlantic) our first deep tropical potential will likely form in the Caribbean...

Interesting writeup. As you know the GFS is still showing a low moving up from the
Caribbean to the Bahamas in the 6/4 to the 6/7 timeframe.

[Phased Vort]

typically i would agree with this, but the last 3 seasons it has sniffed the first true tropical invest before other global models(its in the archives if you dig, Carlos and others have seen it/participated in tracking), its mostly climo based(as may/june storms typically genesis in that area) ,main issue is the GFS does have a tendency to over/under estimate the timing/propagation of negative MJO anomalies causing continual post-poning of development...

i heard the dry air/SAL and wind shear and even ACE blah blah blah arguement all the way thru july last season and we seen how that worked out...once negative 200 HPA anomalies work there way back around into western hemisphere thru regions 7/8/1, and of course climo, there might be a chance we might get a wave or surface trof to detach from the ITCZ of the coast of Colombia...long shot? , probably , but unless it sub-tropical(EC/western Atlantic) our first deep tropical potential will likely form in the Caribbean...

All the power to you, my friend.

Folks, follow his lead!


How you are doing fine, by the way!

[MAC292OH10]

All the power to you, my friend.

Folks, follow his lead!
How you are doing fine, by the way!

thx....trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat here,LOL...but as you know this region typically has the earliest potential to birth a storm...

im so off my game from where i was the last couple yrs im not sure i could keep up, work & family has really maxed me out for time...

BTW, im on your facebook...ill shoot you a pm later...

oh, and its on 3 global models for today's 12Z...its a broad and weak system, but its there...

12Z CMC/GGEM @144hr


12Z ECMWF @168hr


12Z GFS @165hr



This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 26 2011, 02:25 PM

[MAC292OH10]

might watch the energy/moisture that may(or may not) emerge from the coast of colombia or panama....NAM, GFS, ECMWF, CMC/GGEM seem to be hinting at something weak and broad trying to form a closed surface low under an anti-cyclone in the carribbean next week...the negative is the dry air & subsidence this upper level high/anti cyclone will bring once it builds into the Caribbean will make it very tough for organized development on any wave/surface trof that may try to detach(conditions overall just barely marginal at best,sst's are decen but heat potential is still marginal at best), so it may only be a lemon drop system or invest at best if some sort of development does occur...nevertheless here is some imagery...btw, none of this is guaranteed, just board looking for something to track on my days off,LOL....

14UTC TPW....(notice the dense moisture plume emerging from colombia/venezula, those that have tracked weak intricate type waves know this feature...)


925mb vort(decent vorticity southeast of panama and from Colombian extending all the way back to the next wave...)


---
00Z models

SHEAR CHANGE @144hr (GFS/NOGAPS/CMC-GGEM)


GFS @156hr


200HPA negative anomalies



CMC/GGEM @156hr


NOGAPS @156hr



ECMWF @168hr



---
NWS San Juan,PR

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270738
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 AM AST FRI MAY 27 2011

THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF CUBA AND JAMAICA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CUBA...PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY THE END OF UPCOMING WEEK. THESE
FEATURES...IF VERIFY...WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE FA DURING THE BEGINNING OF JUNE. STAY TUNED.

This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 27 2011, 12:26 PM

[MAC292OH10]

i know some folks thought i was crazy a few weeks ago and probably still think im a nutcase(rightfully so, LOL)...but its hard to argue with 3 consecutive model cycles 12Z/00Z/12Z(not counting off cycles = 06Z/18Z)....waiting on 12Z ECMWF , if the 12Z ecmwf has a decent closed low the, its possible it may appear on today's HPC surface progs albeit as a broad weak 1010 or possibly even a 1008 low....

12Z models

NAM(12KM WRF_NMM) @84hr




Shear Change(GFS/NOGAPS/CMC-GGEM) @144hr


GFS


CMC/GGEM


NOGAPS



This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 27 2011, 01:31 PM

[MAC292OH10]

like refereced on the TPW imagery a couple posts above, the possible wave/surface trof we are watching the models develop is now noted on the NHC surface analysis...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION?
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE WRN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH DRY AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SEEPING INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. SMOKE IS PRESENT IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS DUE TO WILDFIRES OVER NW HONDURAS. A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DOES EXTEND FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA ALONG
11N NEAR HIGH MOISTURE VALUES THAT HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E ALONG 71 NEAR
THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MOISTURE
SURGE WHICH MAY RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A
TROPICAL WAVE SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE SE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE WAVE MOVES WNW.

This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 27 2011, 01:26 PM

[MAC292OH10]

12Z ECMWF...

@144hr



@168hr



This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 27 2011, 04:32 PM

[MAC292OH10]

21UTC 850mb vort


20UTC TPW

[MAC292OH10]

12Z imagery....

18UTC 850 vort


15UTC TPW


SST


TCHP


12Z TCFP





----

12Z models

NAM @84hr



SHEAR CHANGE @144hr (GFS/NOGAPS/CMC-GGEM)


GFS @144hr


CMC/GGEM @144hr


NOGAPS @144hr