 Caribbean Tropical Development 2011, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Waves and LPs |
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 May 28 2011, 03:23 PM
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#41
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 8,361 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864  |
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 9N-13N. THIS WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND COULD GIVE THE ISLANDS SHOWERS THIS EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA ALONG 64W/65W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN INLAND AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY STABLE http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATW...ml/281738.shtml? -------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
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May 28 2011, 05:45 PM
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#42
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 28 2011, 04:23 PM)  ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 9N-13N. THIS WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND COULD GIVE THE ISLANDS SHOWERS THIS EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA ALONG 64W/65W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN INLAND AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY STABLE http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATW...ml/281738.shtml? the 8AM tropical discussion had more info about the surface trough/possible low formation, i was at work and wasnt able to post it...anyways, this should help... TAFB Forecasts and Analyses
18UTC suface analysis
24hr forecast
48hr forecast
72hr forecast
This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 28 2011, 05:49 PM |
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May 28 2011, 06:37 PM
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#43
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,361 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ May 28 2011, 06:45 PM) the 8AM tropical discussion had more info about the surface trough/possible low formation, i was at work and wasnt able to post it...anyways, this should help... Very helpful indeed. Thanks! That graphic is awesome. On the 18zUTC surface analysis I assume the line with number "12" on it is the water current? Maybe not. -------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
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May 28 2011, 06:43 PM
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#44
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,860 Joined: 24-January 08 From: Nowhere, ND Member No.: 13,040 |
-------------------- -Mike P
Realism |
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May 28 2011, 06:57 PM
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#45
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 28 2011, 07:37 PM) Very helpful indeed. Thanks! That graphic is awesome. On the 18zUTC surface analysis I assume the line with number "12" on it is the water current? Maybe not. 1012mb pressure contour... on another note i think the reason this isnt getting to much attention is because the HPC & CPC are assuming this is some sort of board monsoonal low, seeing as how the C.American rainy season kicks off this week just about ever yr... all in all the conditions are marginal at best for development, the dry air/and subsidence under the influence of a building mid/upper level high(anti_cyclone)...also marginal SST's....the biggest eye catcher is the system develops under an anti-cyclone and thus the vertical shear is positioned at such an angle that this type of set-up would likely promote T-storm growth rather then inhibit it...if it was august, this system would likely explode....but attm im going to say this has nearly 0% percent chance of being a named storm....and at best maybe a 20% chance of meeting/ becoming Invest criteria....and even tho the NHC surface forecast and global models are locked on to this area for SLP development, the forecast confidence should remain LOW also... all in all just a nice trial run to get he rust out since its been a long off season... This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 28 2011, 07:01 PM |
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May 28 2011, 07:07 PM
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#46
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
its getting a little clearer this low will form in combo of a surface trough & separate wave axis...
QUOTE 000 AXNT20 KNHC 282349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION? NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2011 TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 06N TO 14N ALONG 69W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WHILE MOST OF THE WAVE AXIS REMAINS OVER NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS IS NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE IS SHEARING ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION N OF 12N...HOWEVER WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF NW VENEZUELA FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 67W-70W. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING AS MOSTLY DRY AIR IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 18N W OF 78W. FAIR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE...CONVERGENT TRADEWIND FLOW IS NOTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W TO EASTERN COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N W OF 70W.AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY EXISTING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. CYCLOGENESIS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE 36 TO 72 HOUR WINDOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.
This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 28 2011, 07:08 PM |
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 May 29 2011, 02:41 AM
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#47
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 242 Joined: 19-June 10 From: Clear lake Shores, TX Member No.: 23,001 |
QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ May 28 2011, 07:07 PM) its getting a little clearer this low will form in combo of a surface trough & separate wave axis...
I agree, they aren't really watching this. On another note, the LP over west africa, any chance that is assocated with a wave? It has some nice convection. The shear is low too. I'm probably looking for action, but the SSTs are quite warm off the coast to the west or south. Not sure of the average storm, but i didnt think 1004mb LPs just popped upout of no where. |
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May 29 2011, 10:44 AM
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#48
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
what a miserable night at work...but a look at the 00Z ECMWF woke me up real quick...
everyone brags up the forecast skill of the ECMWF...the ECMWF is NOT a uber high-res model, so if this did type of development did occur the actual minimum pressure would likely be a good bit lower... 192hr
216hr
240hr
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May 29 2011, 11:17 AM
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#49
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
12Z surface analysis
slp
This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 29 2011, 11:19 AM |
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May 29 2011, 12:02 PM
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#50
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 242 Joined: 19-June 10 From: Clear lake Shores, TX Member No.: 23,001 |
QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ May 29 2011, 11:17 AM) 12Z surface analysis
slp
wow.. that doesn't seem right.. is it even possible to have a named storm outside of the season? |
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May 29 2011, 12:04 PM
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#51
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 242 Joined: 19-June 10 From: Clear lake Shores, TX Member No.: 23,001 |
QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ May 29 2011, 10:44 AM) what a miserable night at work...but a look at the 00Z ECMWF woke me up real quick... everyone brags up the forecast skill of the ECMWF...the ECMWF is NOT a uber high-res model, so if this did type of development did occur the actual minimum pressure would likely be a good bit lower... 192hr
216hr
240hr
uh.. the HP over the eastern gulf.. that would push it either ne or wnw, right? This post has been edited by weather-major94: May 29 2011, 12:23 PM |
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May 29 2011, 01:00 PM
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#52
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
QUOTE(weather-major94 @ May 29 2011, 01:02 PM) wow.. that doesn't seem right.. is it even possible to have a named storm outside of the season? its happened before but its not common...then again the first day of the season is this Wednesday June 1st...its pretty common to have a couple INVESTs by now... as far as track and steering, its best to just be patient and see IF it can organize first,longer it takes to organize the more synoptics will likely change...IF it organizes it may make invest criteria(ATCF models will help quite a bit vs global models)...i still remain pretty conservative and say this will have near 0% chance of being named and possibly 20% chance of becoming an invest until we see some sort of organization...but alot of IFs at this point...00Z GFS/CMC/NOGAPS show C.American coastal huger type solutions...00Z NAM & ECMWF show NE tracking solution toward SE CUBA...either way once it gets heading north whether it be NE or NW it will have quite a bit of shear to contend with that will likely shred it... This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 29 2011, 01:07 PM |
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May 29 2011, 01:06 PM
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#53
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
todays HPC surface forecast...
D3
D4
D5
This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 29 2011, 01:14 PM |
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May 29 2011, 01:38 PM
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#54
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,860 Joined: 24-January 08 From: Nowhere, ND Member No.: 13,040 |
CMC
 -------------------- -Mike P
Realism |
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May 29 2011, 01:45 PM
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#55
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ May 29 2011, 02:38 PM) CMC you and i both know , no way that happens...it did trend towards the ECMWF track a little bit tho...as far as bombo intensity, i LOL'd....  ...waits for the "KING" aka ECMWF...i LOL'd again...
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May 29 2011, 01:56 PM
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#56
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,860 Joined: 24-January 08 From: Nowhere, ND Member No.: 13,040 |
QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ May 29 2011, 02:45 PM) you and i both know , no way that happens...it did trend towards the ECMWF track a little bit tho...as far as bombo intensity, i LOL'd.... ...waits for the "KING" aka ECMWF...i LOL'd again...Yeah  I know. Still good to see that the CMC is back to it's old self again. Hope we get some rain down here from this potential system. -------------------- -Mike P
Realism |
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May 29 2011, 02:00 PM
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#57
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,860 Joined: 24-January 08 From: Nowhere, ND Member No.: 13,040 |
12z ECMWF
Might get my rain after all...    -------------------- -Mike P
Realism |
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May 29 2011, 02:02 PM
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#58
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ May 29 2011, 02:56 PM) Yeah I know. Still good to see that the CMC is back to it's old self again. Hope we get some rain down here from this potential system. Raleigh images showed 989mb...lol...it'd be kinda rough to pull that off in 30-40kts of sub-tropical jet... the 00Z EMCWF showed a pretty stout little system considering how conservative it is and its not a high res model... the ECMWF hooks ya up....looks good...we may very well be on to something...confidence is starting to grow...i guess the "king" didnt like me calling out his canadian buddy...
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May 29 2011, 02:05 PM
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#59
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,860 Joined: 24-January 08 From: Nowhere, ND Member No.: 13,040 |
12z ECMWF looks pretty good.
Takes the system a while to get together which seems about right, then brings it north as a sheared tropical system. Thing may get interesting soon... -------------------- -Mike P
Realism |
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May 29 2011, 02:09 PM
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#60
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ May 29 2011, 03:05 PM) 12z ECMWF looks pretty good. Takes the system a while to get together which seems about right, then brings it north as a sheared tropical system. Thing may get interesting soon... circulation is massive at the 850mb height level....might be tough for it to tighten up real good...
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