Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

9 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 5 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Caribbean Tropical Development 2011, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Waves and LPs
NorEaster07
post May 28 2011, 03:23 PM
Post #41




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,092
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE BETWEEN
9N-13N. THIS WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND COULD
GIVE THE ISLANDS SHOWERS THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA ALONG 64W/65W S OF 11N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN INLAND AND IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY STABLE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATW...ml/281738.shtml?


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.8"
2014-15: 0.8"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.8"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MAC292OH10
post May 28 2011, 05:45 PM
Post #42




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,071
Joined: 27-January 08
From: Buckeye Lake ,OH
Member No.: 13,231





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 28 2011, 04:23 PM) *
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE BETWEEN
9N-13N. THIS WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND COULD
GIVE THE ISLANDS SHOWERS THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA ALONG 64W/65W S OF 11N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN INLAND AND IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY STABLE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATW...ml/281738.shtml?


the 8AM tropical discussion had more info about the surface trough/possible low formation, i was at work and wasnt able to post it...anyways, this should help...

TAFB Forecasts and Analyses
Attached Image


18UTC suface analysis

Attached Image


24hr forecast
Attached Image


48hr forecast
Attached Image


72hr forecast
Attached Image


This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 28 2011, 05:49 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post May 28 2011, 06:37 PM
Post #43




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,092
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ May 28 2011, 06:45 PM) *
the 8AM tropical discussion had more info about the surface trough/possible low formation, i was at work and wasnt able to post it...anyways, this should help...


Very helpful indeed. Thanks! That graphic is awesome. On the 18zUTC surface analysis I assume the line with number "12" on it is the water current? Maybe not.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.8"
2014-15: 0.8"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.8"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Superstorm93
post May 28 2011, 06:43 PM
Post #44




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,863
Joined: 24-January 08
From: Nowhere, ND
Member No.: 13,040





Attached Image

Attached Image



--------------------
Millersville University Meteorology Major

Realism
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MAC292OH10
post May 28 2011, 06:57 PM
Post #45




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,071
Joined: 27-January 08
From: Buckeye Lake ,OH
Member No.: 13,231





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 28 2011, 07:37 PM) *
Very helpful indeed. Thanks! That graphic is awesome. On the 18zUTC surface analysis I assume the line with number "12" on it is the water current? Maybe not.


1012mb pressure contour...

on another note i think the reason this isnt getting to much attention is because the HPC & CPC are assuming this is some sort of board monsoonal low, seeing as how the C.American rainy season kicks off this week just about ever yr...

all in all the conditions are marginal at best for development, the dry air/and subsidence under the influence of a building mid/upper level high(anti_cyclone)...also marginal SST's....the biggest eye catcher is the system develops under an anti-cyclone and thus the vertical shear is positioned at such an angle that this type of set-up would likely promote T-storm growth rather then inhibit it...if it was august, this system would likely explode....but attm im going to say this has nearly 0% percent chance of being a named storm....and at best maybe a 20% chance of meeting/ becoming Invest criteria....and even tho the NHC surface forecast and global models are locked on to this area for SLP development, the forecast confidence should remain LOW also...

all in all just a nice trial run to get he rust out since its been a long off season...

This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 28 2011, 07:01 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MAC292OH10
post May 28 2011, 07:07 PM
Post #46




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,071
Joined: 27-January 08
From: Buckeye Lake ,OH
Member No.: 13,231





its getting a little clearer this low will form in combo of a surface trough & separate wave axis...

QUOTE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 282349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION?
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2011

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 06N TO 14N ALONG 69W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WHILE MOST OF THE WAVE AXIS REMAINS OVER NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA...CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
AXIS IS NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE IS SHEARING ANY POTENTIAL
CONVECTION N OF 12N...HOWEVER WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF NW VENEZUELA
FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 67W-70W.


CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING AS MOSTLY DRY AIR IS EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 18N W OF 78W. FAIR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE...CONVERGENT TRADEWIND FLOW IS NOTED IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W TO EASTERN COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W.

THIS SURFACE FEATURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC IS GENERATING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
16N W OF 70W.
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY EXISTING BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. CYCLOGENESIS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE 36 TO 72 HOUR WINDOW
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.



Attached Image


This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 28 2011, 07:08 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
weather-major94
post May 29 2011, 02:41 AM
Post #47




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 251
Joined: 19-June 10
From: Clear lake Shores, TX
Member No.: 23,001





QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ May 28 2011, 07:07 PM) *
its getting a little clearer this low will form in combo of a surface trough & separate wave axis...

Attached Image


I agree, they aren't really watching this. On another note, the LP over west africa, any chance that is assocated with a wave? It has some nice convection. The shear is low too. I'm probably looking for action, but the SSTs are quite warm off the coast to the west or south. Not sure of the average storm, but i didnt think 1004mb LPs just popped upout of no where.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MAC292OH10
post May 29 2011, 10:44 AM
Post #48




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,071
Joined: 27-January 08
From: Buckeye Lake ,OH
Member No.: 13,231





what a miserable night at work...but a look at the 00Z ECMWF woke me up real quick...

everyone brags up the forecast skill of the ECMWF...the ECMWF is NOT a uber high-res model, so if this did type of development did occur the actual minimum pressure would likely be a good bit lower...

192hr

Attached Image


216hr

Attached Image


240hr

Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MAC292OH10
post May 29 2011, 11:17 AM
Post #49




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,071
Joined: 27-January 08
From: Buckeye Lake ,OH
Member No.: 13,231





12Z surface analysis


Attached Image


slp

Attached Image


This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 29 2011, 11:19 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
weather-major94
post May 29 2011, 12:02 PM
Post #50




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 251
Joined: 19-June 10
From: Clear lake Shores, TX
Member No.: 23,001





QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ May 29 2011, 11:17 AM) *
12Z surface analysis


Attached Image


slp

Attached Image


wow.. that doesn't seem right.. is it even possible to have a named storm outside of the season?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
weather-major94
post May 29 2011, 12:04 PM
Post #51




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 251
Joined: 19-June 10
From: Clear lake Shores, TX
Member No.: 23,001





QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ May 29 2011, 10:44 AM) *
what a miserable night at work...but a look at the 00Z ECMWF woke me up real quick...

everyone brags up the forecast skill of the ECMWF...the ECMWF is NOT a uber high-res model, so if this did type of development did occur the actual minimum pressure would likely be a good bit lower...

192hr

Attached Image


216hr

Attached Image


240hr

Attached Image

uh.. the HP over the eastern gulf.. that would push it either ne or wnw, right?

This post has been edited by weather-major94: May 29 2011, 12:23 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MAC292OH10
post May 29 2011, 01:00 PM
Post #52




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,071
Joined: 27-January 08
From: Buckeye Lake ,OH
Member No.: 13,231





QUOTE(weather-major94 @ May 29 2011, 01:02 PM) *
wow.. that doesn't seem right.. is it even possible to have a named storm outside of the season?


its happened before but its not common...then again the first day of the season is this Wednesday June 1st...its pretty common to have a couple INVESTs by now...

as far as track and steering, its best to just be patient and see IF it can organize first,longer it takes to organize the more synoptics will likely change...IF it organizes it may make invest criteria(ATCF models will help quite a bit vs global models)...i still remain pretty conservative and say this will have near 0% chance of being named and possibly 20% chance of becoming an invest until we see some sort of organization...but alot of IFs at this point...00Z GFS/CMC/NOGAPS show C.American coastal huger type solutions...00Z NAM & ECMWF show NE tracking solution toward SE CUBA...either way once it gets heading north whether it be NE or NW it will have quite a bit of shear to contend with that will likely shred it...

This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 29 2011, 01:07 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MAC292OH10
post May 29 2011, 01:06 PM
Post #53




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,071
Joined: 27-January 08
From: Buckeye Lake ,OH
Member No.: 13,231





todays HPC surface forecast...

D3
Attached Image


D4
Attached Image


D5
Attached Image


This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 29 2011, 01:14 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Superstorm93
post May 29 2011, 01:38 PM
Post #54




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,863
Joined: 24-January 08
From: Nowhere, ND
Member No.: 13,040





CMC



--------------------
Millersville University Meteorology Major

Realism
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MAC292OH10
post May 29 2011, 01:45 PM
Post #55




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,071
Joined: 27-January 08
From: Buckeye Lake ,OH
Member No.: 13,231





QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ May 29 2011, 02:38 PM) *
CMC

you and i both know , no way that happens...it did trend towards the ECMWF track a little bit tho...as far as bombo intensity, i LOL'd.... biggrin.gif ...waits for the "KING" aka ECMWF...i LOL'd again...
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Superstorm93
post May 29 2011, 01:56 PM
Post #56




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,863
Joined: 24-January 08
From: Nowhere, ND
Member No.: 13,040





QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ May 29 2011, 02:45 PM) *
you and i both know , no way that happens...it did trend towards the ECMWF track a little bit tho...as far as bombo intensity, i LOL'd.... biggrin.gif ...waits for the "KING" aka ECMWF...i LOL'd again...


Yeah laugh.gif

I know. Still good to see that the CMC is back to it's old self again.

Hope we get some rain down here from this potential system.



--------------------
Millersville University Meteorology Major

Realism
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Superstorm93
post May 29 2011, 02:00 PM
Post #57




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,863
Joined: 24-January 08
From: Nowhere, ND
Member No.: 13,040





12z ECMWF

Might get my rain after all...
rolleyes.gif





--------------------
Millersville University Meteorology Major

Realism
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MAC292OH10
post May 29 2011, 02:02 PM
Post #58




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,071
Joined: 27-January 08
From: Buckeye Lake ,OH
Member No.: 13,231





QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ May 29 2011, 02:56 PM) *
Yeah laugh.gif

I know. Still good to see that the CMC is back to it's old self again.

Hope we get some rain down here from this potential system.


Raleigh images showed 989mb...lol...it'd be kinda rough to pull that off in 30-40kts of sub-tropical jet...

the 00Z EMCWF showed a pretty stout little system considering how conservative it is and its not a high res model...


the ECMWF hooks ya up....looks good...we may very well be on to something...confidence is starting to grow...i guess the "king" didnt like me calling out his canadian buddy... laugh.gif

Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Superstorm93
post May 29 2011, 02:05 PM
Post #59




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,863
Joined: 24-January 08
From: Nowhere, ND
Member No.: 13,040





12z ECMWF looks pretty good.

Takes the system a while to get together which seems about right, then brings it north as a sheared tropical system.

Thing may get interesting soon...


--------------------
Millersville University Meteorology Major

Realism
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MAC292OH10
post May 29 2011, 02:09 PM
Post #60




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,071
Joined: 27-January 08
From: Buckeye Lake ,OH
Member No.: 13,231





QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ May 29 2011, 03:05 PM) *
12z ECMWF looks pretty good.

Takes the system a while to get together which seems about right, then brings it north as a sheared tropical system.

Thing may get interesting soon...


circulation is massive at the 850mb height level....might be tough for it to tighten up real good...

Attached Image


Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

9 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 5 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 19th December 2014 - 03:55 PM